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By Jon Machota 2h ago
Cowboys writers Jon Machota and Bob Sturm are back with their third discussion piece since Dallas’ season ended. We began by chatting about the impact owner Jerry Jones and head coach Mike McCarthy had on Dallas’ disappointing finish to the 2021 season. Last week was focused on the drop-off in play from franchise quarterback Dak Prescott during the back half of the season.
Today, we take a look at Dallas’ key free agents and other significant roster decisions.
Machota: Last time we chatted, we decided to talk about free agency and other roster moves in our next conversation. It’s an interesting thing to discuss because there are a lot of moving parts. They could have a great draft and hit on bargains in free agency, similar to what they did a year ago, but we’re likely looking at a roster that’s not going to be more talented on paper than the one they fielded this past season. There are a lot of difficult moves to make, not only with their 21 unrestricted free agents but also with guys like Amari Cooper and DeMarcus Lawrence. Let’s start with that. Which of their unrestricted free agents do you think is of the highest priority?
Sturm: I guess it starts with how many holes you open up to feel like you’re in a good spot. Their decisions on Cooper and Lawrence kind of cover everything else. That makes preparing a proper shopping list a priority. They are sort of painted into a corner with regards to the other contracts they have. Aside from those two players, I just don’t know that they can do a whole lot to open up space they seem to need to deal with some of these other things. It’s a pretty complex exercise they have in front of them right now. That Cooper decision will govern sort of the next few months, don’t you think?
Machota: Absolutely. And I think they have a good idea of what they’re going to do. It’s a very strong possibility they’ll part with Cooper, which brings into play what they are doing with Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson. Let me just say, I’m not a fan of moving on from Cooper. This team is not better without him. CeeDee Lamb is capable of taking on a larger role, but he needs help around him. Gallup will be coming off a significant knee injury — who knows how effective he’ll be to start the season? So if you’re moving on from Cooper, wide receiver becomes a priority at some point in the draft. Not necessarily in the first or second round, but they’ll have to add a young wide receiver. How much does that help Prescott? It’s an interesting decision they have to make because Cooper impacts so many of their other moves. But if they said they could only bring back one, Cooper or Lawrence, I’d take Lawrence. It doesn’t work that way, but who are you keeping in that scenario?
Sturm: Boy, you have to weigh a few extra things as opposed to giving them a straight answer because with Lawrence, the two other dominoes that fall so quickly are “What am I doing with Randy Gregory” and “Where am I playing Micah Parsons?” Those are extremely important decisions. With Gregory, if all things are equal entering the offseason, which they certainly are not, I’m probably not competing very hard for his extension. I go into the offseason thinking I don’t sense his dependability. And this has very little to do with his number of suspensions — although maybe it should — but has more to do with his game play. At times, I feel like I can’t depend on him to go from being one of those guys with whom anything we get is a bonus, which he’s been for several years, to paying him very good money and depending on him to be one of my cornerstones. That’s a big difference. By the end of the season, I decided I couldn’t handle that transition.
I was always happy to have Gregory — I defended him. I really like him. But if it’s time to give him even two years, $20 million, or whatever the standard is for a guy of his ability, what I get from him is no longer a bonus. It is vital to have him on the field, and he is one of my high-IQ players in terms of not jumping offside at terrible times, not taking personal fouls, not jumping inside on a zone read and letting Kyler Murray get to his outside at a key juncture. I need him to be one of the guys whom my young guys look to as an example, as opposed to, “I can’t be like Gregory in this spot and give the opposition a free play.” I didn’t mean to get off on that side trail, but it’s all connected, isn’t it?
Randy Gregory (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
Machota: Absolutely. I would be stunned if they don’t have at least one of the two, Lawrence or Gregory, next season. One has to be back. The depth chart isn’t great behind them. Dorance Armstrong Jr. is an unrestricted free agent. So then you’re asking a lot from Tarell Basham and Chauncey Golston. There’s nothing behind them. Could they move Parsons to full-time edge rusher? Sure. There’s no doubt about that. But I don’t think defensive coordinator Dan Quinn wants to do that. Every time he was asked about it during the season, he always said he loved Parsons’ ability to be moved everywhere in the front seven. I also don’t love the idea of moving him to full-time edge rusher because it’s not like they’re in a great situation at linebacker. You could argue linebacker is the Cowboys’ biggest need going into the offseason with Leighton Vander Esch and Keanu Neal both unrestricted free agents. You hope Jabril Cox can take on a larger role when he returns from his season-ending knee injury, but there are no guarantees. It’s asking a lot to expect Gregory and Lawrence to be on the team next season, but one of them should be. And that still leaves edge rusher to be addressed, as early as the No. 24 pick.
Sturm: I’ll say this: You made me choose between Lawrence and Cooper, and a straight answer would probably be appreciated, but I’m leaning toward keeping Lawrence somehow. And the cap savings aren’t that great anyway. Maybe there’s a compromise between player and team if the Cowboys approach him about a newer deal or a modified deal with a little bit of a haircut that might even be a better situation for him in 2023. Perhaps they can get his number down in 2022 by guaranteeing he’ll be on the roster in 2023. I wouldn’t do that in many cases because it has gotten the Cowboys into a lot of trouble, but I’d like to think there’s an accounting solution because Lawrence might look at his $27 million against the cap this year, and it’s $29 million next year, and understand that if he wants to stay with Dallas and be part of the build of this defense with Quinn, he has to help make it possible. Lawrence is probably a reasonable enough guy. He knows he’s going to have a hard time finding $27 million a year on the open market. Therefore, if he loves it here — this is something he has helped build — I’d like to think there’s a way to get his number down and keep him here. His age and back should give us pause, but that might be one of the solutions.
Machota: I think this is a good spot to move on to the 21 unrestricted free agents. Looking at the list, more than half of them could be a priority. There are a lot of key contributors you’d like to have back, from Bryan Anger to Gregory. We know the Cowboys don’t spend big in free agency. We know they’re not going to keep most of these guys. But of those restricted free agents, Jayron Kearse is the most important for me, if you’re factoring in impact and likely contract. He’s going to need a bigger deal than the one-year contract he signed last year, but I think they can make it work. And with the combination of his role, how much he enjoyed playing with that group and for Quinn and being put in a position to have the most successful season of his career, there’s a decent chance they can get him back. Of the top players on their free-agent list, like Gregory, Gallup, Dalton Schultz, etc., Kearse would be No. 1 on my list.
Jayron Kearse (Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
Sturm: It’s hilarious you say that because I completely agree. Just based on what I’ve seen and what the money might be for Kearse or Schultz — to a lesser extent Gallup, now that he’s been injured — I agree. In terms of what we saw this year for money paid out and also knowing the safety market in the NFL is often very soft, I want to get something done with Kearse and fast. Given how little money he’s probably made in his career, his people might be advising him to at least get to opening day of free agency to see what’s out there. I wouldn’t blame him for a second. He was a massive part of the defense. Not that he’s irreplaceable because you can’t think that way in free agency or you make dumb decisions. But he provided the Cowboys with a lot of pop on defense, and I wouldn’t want to lose that. As far as Schultz, I’ve always admired his ability to get the most out of his skill set, but he’s probably graduating to a new pay bracket I’m not willing to engage with. And that puts me in a bind because Dallas doesn’t have much at tight end. Blake Jarwin is sort of a modified wide receiver. That needs to be fixed, probably through the draft, as well. I just can’t compete if Schultz is going to $8 million or $10 million a year, and there’s a good chance he will.
I need to move on from Connor Williams. Gallup is interesting with the ACL. I would imagine we’re looking at a one-year deal that is probably $6 million to $8 million. That would be my general guess given his availability for training camp being very much in question. It gives him a chance to hit the market after proving he’s healthy a year from now. Then, if I can, find a safety, whether it’s Malik Hooker or, to some extent, Keanu Neal or Damontae Kazee. I don’t know that any of them are good enough that I would stack one above the rest, but I would probably sit down with Quinn and figure out which one to prioritize on a smaller deal. I’m not necessarily saying no to Vander Esch, but we probably need to see if he could be had for close to a veteran’s minimum. If he can do better than that, good for him. It probably won’t be here. Finally, two guys coming off their rookie deals are Day 3 guys with pretty interesting contracts: Wilson and Armstrong. And in both cases, I need to have a price in mind where I want to keep them around. If it goes above that price, I need to be disciplined enough to say goodbye because those are sometimes the deals that get you in trouble.
Cedrick Wilson (Jeremy Reper / USA Today)
Machota: For the sake of this exercise, I wish I could strongly disagree with that list. The thing I keep thinking about when looking at those names is potentially removing them from the roster and then trying to figure out how they’re going to fill that spot in the draft. We are confident the Cowboys aren’t investing significantly in a safety if they have to replace any of the players lost in free agency. It just shows how they could end up targeting so many positions early in the draft because so many things are in play. And we know they’re not going to spend big to address any of these positions in free agency. They’ve shown us that. They’re going to be looking for bargains. After watching the Rams win the Super Bowl, a lot of Cowboys fans would probably like to see Dallas make similar veteran moves, restructure a bunch of deals and worry about paying for it down the road. But there’s no reason to believe they are going to do that. You’re likely going to see business as usual, try to re-sign some of your own and lean heavily on the draft.
Sturm: The flip side of that would be the more we see the league go in the Rams’ direction, and I do think it’s going to be more the philosophy of the contenders to go “all-in.” Despite the cap going up sizably every year, I think we’re going to continue to see the eradication of the middle class. Just about every team has about 15 free agents, let’s say, and there aren’t that many jobs, so you’re going to see the big-money guys continuing to get their big money. But that middle class, those guys who are getting their four-year deals at $6 million per year, that’s going away. Because the allure of chasing a title and going all-in is going to increase the number of guys making $20 million a year, $30 million a year, $40 million a year, all the guys making $7 million to $8 million per year are probably going to be sacrificed. And that’s why the Cowboys might get a bunch of these guys back near the veteran minimum, because I think teams are going to say, “Let’s build around seven or eight significant guys and hope that’s good enough to go on a bit of a run.” And, by the way, it probably won’t work for most of the teams, but we know how teams think this time of year.
Machota: I’ll end with this: I also don’t see the Cowboys doing a Rams-type move and going all-in because I don’t think they want to potentially hurt the roster’s future. Because if McCarthy isn’t their guy and they move on after the 2022 season, they want the roster to be attractive to the next head coach. I believe the salary-cap future of the New Orleans Saints played a role in Sean Payton stepping down when he did. If the Cowboys are looking for a new coach in 11 months, those candidates will want to mold the roster how they see fit.
