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By Jon Machota Sep 2, 2019
FRISCO, Texas — We’ve made it. The regular season is finally here.
233 days have passed since the Cowboys’ 2018 season ended with a divisional round playoff loss to the Rams. In that time, Kellen Moore has been elevated to offensive coordinator; Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence signed a long-term contract extension and had shoulder surgery; and key pieces have been added in free agency and the draft.
All offseason, executive vice president Stephen Jones has talked about the team needing to “take the next step.” It’s clear that he’s referring to a playoff run that extends beyond the divisional round.
There’s no question this is one of the Cowboys’ most talented rosters in recent memory. Some, like Hall of Fame wide receiver Michael Irvin, believe it’s the best since the franchise’s Super Bowl years in the early 1990s.
Expectations are high, and there is reason for optimism. The Cowboys have what it takes to make a Super Bowl run.
But there are also several reasons to think they’ll fall short.
To get you ready for the start of the 2019 season, here are five reasons to be optimistic about this Cowboys season and five reasons to pump the brakes on any Lombardi Trophy talk.
5 reasons the Cowboys can make a Super Bowl run:
1.) There isn’t a significant weak spot on the roster. Now, I’m writing this with the belief that Ezekiel Elliott’s contract extension will get signed and he won’t miss any regular-season games. The Cowboys entered the offseason with safety as their biggest question mark. The emergence of Xavier Woods and rookie Donovan Wilson during training camp and the preseason has made that less of a concern. They’re loaded at cornerback, linebacker and along the defensive line. Offensively, Dak Prescott had his best offseason. Michael Gallup looks poised to take a big step in his second year. Randall Cobb should be able to make up for the loss of Cole Beasley while also adding a different dimension to the offense. As long as Amari Cooper can play through his recent foot injury, he should be more effective in his first full season with the team. Jason Witten has looked like he never took a year off. With Travis Frederick back to his old self and Connor Williams bulking up in the offseason, the offensive line should return to being one of the NFL’s best. And, finally, there’s Tony Pollard. He has the ability to be a good every-down back, but the play-calling possibilities are endless if the Cowboys have him on the field at the same time as Elliott.
2.) The Dallas offense should be more unpredictable with a first-year offensive coordinator. Whether you liked Scott Linehan or not, there’s a lot of tape of his offenses and his style of play-calling. That’s just what comes with coaching in the NFL for almost 20 years. With Kellen Moore, there’s very little. It’s going to be difficult for defensive coordinators to get a feel early in the season when all they have to go off is four preseason games. The Cowboys must use that to their advantage. Throughout training camp and the preseason, we’ve seen a variety of formations that weren’t deployed much in previous seasons. There have been more bunch sets with receivers and tight ends, more pre-snap movement, a bigger emphasis on using the fullback in the passing game and even some wildcat formations with Cobb under center. The players say the biggest difference is happening pre-snap. The objective is not to completely eliminate what they did last season. They’re going to be a run-first team as long as Elliott is in the backfield. But the goal has been to disguise the play before the snap so opponents don’t know where everyone is going as soon as the play is underway.
3.) The Cowboys have an experienced group. Although the roster looks young on paper, many of the key youngsters played a significant amount of snaps last season. Leighton Vander Esch, 23, and Jaylon Smith, 24, have almost a full season of experience playing alongside each other. The same can be said for Connor Williams, 22, and Michael Gallup, 23. Prescott recently turned 26 and he already has 48 regular-season starts and three playoff starts. Amari Cooper, 25, is entering his fifth season. Elliott, 24, is entering his fourth. And then there is a good blend of veterans like Witten (37), Sean Lee (33), Cobb (29), Tyrone Crawford (29), Tyron Smith (28), Zack Martin (28), Frederick (28) and DeMarcus Lawrence (27).
4.) They’re relatively healthy entering the season. Byron Jones, Martin, Cooper and Smith missed most of training camp. But all four are expected to return to practice this week and play Week 1 against the New York Giants. Elliott should be fresh when he returns. It’s important to get practice reps during camp and the preseason, but for experienced players, it’s more about getting to Week 1 healthy. For the most part, the Cowboys have done that. And because of their outstanding depth, they should be able to overcome some injuries during the season.
5.) The one thing that has kept the defense from being elite in previous years has looked like a strength during training camp and the preseason. It’s not a secret that the Cowboys have been one of the league’s worst teams over the last several years when it comes to intercepting passes, particularly their defensive backs. We saw much more production in that area during training camp practices, especially early from Woods. It carried over into the preseason games, as the Cowboys intercepted eight passes in those four games, tops among all NFL teams. Wilson led all players with three. The Cowboys intercepted only nine passes in 16 games last season, tied for 26th in the league. If they can average one per game, they have a chance at being a top-five defensive unit.
Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
5 reasons why a Super Bowl run won’t happen:
1.) Recent history hasn’t been on their side. The Cowboys haven’t put together consecutive playoff campaigns with Jason Garrett as their head coach. The other two years they’ve won the division, the following season has resulted in 4-12 and 9-7 finishes. The NFC East also hasn’t seen a team win back-to-back division titles since the Eagles in 2004. And then there are the playoffs. The Cowboys haven’t reached the NFC championship game since the 1995 season. Under Garrett, the Cowboys have been competitive in each of their divisional round games. They led the Packers 21-20 entering the fourth quarter in 2014. They were tied 31-31 with 35 seconds left in the fourth quarter against the Packers in 2016. They were within eight for much of the fourth quarter against the Rams last season.
2.) Growing pains from a first-year offensive coordinator. With all of the talent and experience the Cowboys have on offense, this shouldn’t seem like a significant concern. But new doesn’t always mean better. Moore has impressed everyone in the organization over the last four-plus years. The belief is that he’s going to develop into an outstanding coach. But what if it takes some time? What if Linehan actually helped Prescott and Co. more than he was ever given credit for? If there are struggles, would Garrett take over play-calling? It seems like a possibility for a head coach entering the final year of his contract. What kind of problems might that cause?
3.) Tougher schedule. The wonderful gift that comes with winning the division is a first-place schedule the following year. The first three games all seem very winnable: vs. Giants, at Washington, vs. Dolphins. Three of the next four are against New Orleans, Green Bay and Philadelphia. All three are expected to compete for division titles. All three have good quarterbacks. Three of the four games after the bye week are on the road. The lone home game is against a Vikings team expected to compete for a division title. The final four games include trips to Chicago and Philadelphia and a home game against the Rams. It’s not going to be easy getting to 10 or 11 wins, which is what it will likely take to win the NFC East.
4.) Contract distractions. During a recent episode of our “About Them Cowboys” podcast, Bob Sturm mentioned this topic. Elliott’s deal appears to be on the verge of getting done. But that still leaves Prescott, Cooper, Byron Jones, La’el Collins, Maliek Collins and others playing in the final year of their contracts. Those are key players all hoping the Cowboys will step up with a big contract offer. If the team doesn’t get off to a hot start, could that lead to some finger-pointing in the locker room? It doesn’t seem like that would be a problem for these Cowboys, but it can’t be completely ruled out. Players have all said the right things publicly when asked about contracts and potential distractions up to this point.
5.) The kicking game. Brett Maher won the kicking job for the second consecutive year. However, he did struggle at times during training camp and the preseason. In three preseason games, Maher was 5 of 7 on field-goal attempts, making kicks from 25, 40, 31, 36 and 23 yards. His misses came from 35 and 52. Maher was 6 for 6 on extra points. Stephen Jones said last week that they “have all the confidence in the world” in Maher. Last season, he was outstanding from 50-plus yards, making 6 of 7, including a Cowboys record 62-yarder. But he was 13 of 19 between 30 and 49 yards. Maher made some big kicks for the Cowboys last year, and he’ll be asked to do the same this season. So many of these games come down to a kick in the final minutes. The difference between making the playoffs and going home early could end up resting on Maher’s right leg.
