Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 4
Despite owning the Giants for years, the Cowboys head to NY as a desperate team.
Bob Sturm
Sep 26, 2024
Full disclosure: This Sunday-Thursday turnaround is going to make this very rare Thursday morning preview piece pretty short (by my standards). Instead of 2,500 words, this one feels like it will be about half of that.
But, let’s not waste time on that. Let’s get down to business.
I am not sure how many times we have called a September Cowboys game a “must win” in the last several years, but this one feels like it. They have been humbled and humiliated in the last two weeks, and the whole league is having a laugh at Dallas' expense.
Meanwhile, the locker room seems filled with personalities that are getting tired of each other. The culture is in question, and the foundation is on shaky ground. The personal agendas of so many are making everyone question everything. Then, to ask the team to follow a leader who could get fired if they lose this game is quite a stretch of instability.
This Cowboys team is down bad right now, and a win could save everything. But they need a win in the worst way, and despite being 5.5-point favorites, I am sure they would take a win by a single point. They won’t care, and neither should you. When you are this down, you take a win by any means and any margin.
So, who do you handpick if you need a win? How about a team that has zero wins against Dak Prescott since he was a rookie? Dak is 13-0 against the Giants since 2016, and the 2023 matchups were hilarious mismatches.
But, it seems assured that this game will not be an absurd mismatch. The Giants will be thinking that it is time to beat Dallas. It would mean so much and Dallas looks horrid.
Dallas just needs a win – any win. Let’s break it down.
These are my Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts:
– The interior of the Cowboys OL - LG Tyler Smith, C Cooper Beebe, and RG Zack Martin need to play their best game so far up front to make sure the running game can flourish as well as keep the pocket from collapsing.
When Dallas has the ball:
Dallas has problems on offense. They aren’t as bad as the problems on defense, but they are not in a position to “outscore their problems” because the offense looks like a group that has few answers, too.
For one thing, they have scored one touchdown in eleven 1st-half drives in the last two weeks. We certainly would not call that good enough. For another thing, they are nearly the worst rushing team, and they are poor on 1st downs. They fall behind schedule and have little confidence.
Then, they seem to have one playmaker, and CeeDee Lamb cannot do it all. In fact, he seems easily frustrated these days, and that will only grow because opponents like to see you frustrated if they can help influence things.
The other thing to consider is that the Giants keep adding pieces. The front for the Giants seems like it adds a big piece each year, and this year it was the big trade and signing of Brian Burns from Carolina. He is absolutely a force off the edge, and now they have two after going years with zero edges.
But we know that the real force for the Giants is right in the middle, perhaps lined up right across from the Cowboys' rookie center. Like Burns, from that 2019 draft class, Dexter Lawrence is a one-of-a-kind nose tackle who is not just a good run defender but an excellent pass rusher, too. At 6'5", 340, there is nothing like him in this league, as this reel from Josh Clevenger will show you. He gets to the passer and collapses the pocket.
There is no way a man that big should be in the backfield as much as he is. He is a true game-wrecker.
Beyond that, there are opportunities in the secondary, but beware the blitzing of Shane Bowen and his crew. They are sneaking and will bring players from both levels. They are mostly middle-field closed with Cover 1 and Cover 3 and are using the 8th man to plug up your run. See if that presents downfield opportunities with someone like Jalen Tolbert or Brandin Cooks.
As you can see above, the Cowboys offensive numbers are not too bad, but we also should understand that a lot of it was 4th Quarter cosmetics in Week 3. They need more steady offense with explosive plays and a healthy run game and ball control. We shall see. We expect the stadium will be rocking.
– Brian Daboll will force the Cowboys to deal with the read option and a quick game with screens and such. It is up to Dallas to prove they can defend it better than they did on film.
When The Giants have the ball:
This is an offense that has juice now, and the last two 1st-round picks are wide receivers in Jalin Hyatt and the very exciting Malik Nabers. They still have an offensive line that can struggle, but you can bet the goals will be clear in this one: keep making Dallas do what it doesn’t want to do.
That will be to stop the run and deal with not rushing the passer.
They will also use the quick game to get Nabers involved because he is one of the best young weapons to enter the league this year, but they will do it with caution. We know that the Cowboys racked up all the sacks against the Giants last year and how spooked Daniel Jones was. But, still, Nabers is such a weapon and his reel against the Browns last week was impressive stuff:
The Giants are not near the Saints or Ravens on offense, but they have a smart coach, and he will make Dallas stand up to them or keep putting them in a bind.
The Cowboys' only way out of this bad spot is to fight, play their assignments, and work together. There is splintering in the defensive huddle right now, as many of the players do not seem to enjoy each other. There appear to be divides between the veterans and the youngsters, and that is a bad sign. Hopefully, Mike Zimmer can get everyone pulling in the same direction quickly.
Dallas is 30th or worse on defense in three of the ten categories we track! That is absurd. Scoring, rush defense, and red zone efficiency. They are allowing red zone touchdowns on nine out of the ten drives against! HOW?
– Finally, I’ll just say it again. For this team to go anywhere in 2024, it is time for the leaders on this team; Prescott, Parsons, Lamb, Diggs, etc, to lead them out of this slump. There is no other way out of this mess.
They can definitely lose this game if they are not careful. They need those who will be their big earners to tell everyone else to follow them. They need to play with intensity, sharpness, and a force of will that shows this is very important to them. They will have 10 days to get ready for Pittsburgh, so 2-2 is not the end of the world.
But 1-3 might be. You wonder what changes they might make if they lose a game against this foe when they are desperate for a win.
Nobody is going to feel sorry for them. They dug this hole. They must now dig out.