GameDay Chatter Thread | Week 1 | Cowboys @ Rams | 9/13/2020
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NoDak
Hotlinking' sonofabitch
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So, are the fans going to be allowed to wear things with the redskins logo on it, or will the gestapo have them removed?
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
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Why does it seem like the eagles start the season against a cupcake team every single year?
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I'm also really looking forward to seeing this hybrid 3-4 with Aldon Smith in a 2 point rushing stance. That concept really intrigues me. Downside is it's not exactly disguised, because they really shouldn't be dropping Smith into coverage, so it's going to be pretty obvious when they line up in that scheme he is going to be pinning his ears back.
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For some reason I get Minny and GB.
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
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Brutal games but at least one is in the division. I'm obviously stuck with eagles REDSKINS but I probably won't watch.
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I will mostly be watching the RZ.
bbgun
please don't "dur" me
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Oh good. No more tawdry jokes at my expense.
Angrymesscan
DCC 4Life
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I fear he may have jinxed the entire season...
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Cowboys Friday Preview Riffing: A trip to Los Angeles kicks off the new season
By Bob Sturm Sep 11, 2020
Twenty-eight days since the truncated Dallas Cowboys training camp held its first full practice in Frisco, 149 days until Super Bowl 55 in Tampa and only two days until the 7:20 pm Sunday Night Football Week 1 showdown with the Los Angeles Rams at the all new SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA…
Ladies and gentlemen, we made it.
Many of us were concerned it would not work out, but we can officially declare that last night, the NFL did happen. It has started in earnest, and despite the awkwardness of most NFL stadiums not welcoming the fans back, we do have football.
And for that, this man is very pleased. I thank football for the return and all the joy and pain that awaits us, as it does every season.
The 2020 Cowboys have some very bright dreams, and with some picking them to go all the way to Tampa, I think it is fitting that they begin the season with a stiff prime-time test against an old, historic foe that has shown up on the schedule quite a bit recently: Those Los Angeles Rams.
This will be the fourth straight year these teams have played each other. Each has talking points:
In both teams’ cases, the jury remains undecided about the success of that idea. In the Cowboys’ case, they continue to pursue their first NFC Championship Game since 1995. For the Rams, their majestic rise to the Super Bowl in the 2018 season (with a healthy break or two in New Orleans) led to their roster evolving at an incredible pace, as only six offensive starters and four defensive starters remain from the team that took the field in February of 2019 to try to win it all against New England. As it has demonstrated time and time again, the NFL really does stand for “Not For Long.”
If you divide the Cowboys’ schedule into four different four-game segments, I think the first four would the my second-toughest grouping. I believe Games 5-8 and 13-16 are easier (relatively), while 9-12 is probably the stiffest run (again).
But let’s not sleep on four “fringe playoff” teams. I don’t believe very many are taking the Rams, Falcons, Seahawks or Browns as favorites in their respective divisions, but they all have a decent chance and it would not rock us if any of them got in with a 9-7 or 10-6 record.
If we believe the Cowboys are better than that, we should hope they can hit the ground running.
Let’s size this one up, where Vegas has curiously installed the Cowboys as a three-point favorite.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
Below, please enjoy the “projected lineup” artwork that remains a staple of the Friday preview. Please note that these are merely projections of what the Cowboys will look like in their 11 personnel and how the Rams might match up in nickel. Nobody knows much after a preseason with no intel, and further, injury news will be tough to trust this season.
The Rams probably have the best defensive back and the best defensive tackle in pro football. That makes those matchups a real issue, of course, and we know that while the Cowboys have the benefit of three interchangeable and excellent receivers to mitigate Jalen Ramsey’s impact, they will not so lucky against Aaron Donald, where they will have to deal with big 99 squaring off and attempting to isolate Connor Williams and Joe Looney in different scenarios, probably leaving Zack Martin to deal with Michael Brockers as much as possible. Donald was absolutely unblockable in 2017 against Dallas (including going through Martin a few different times), although he has been less of a central figure in the last two meetings.
But Dallas knows that they have a very poor situation at right tackle and will surely be somewhat respectful of helping out Cam Erving against Samson Ebukam and Leonard Floyd. Both are far from Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews, who combined for 19.5 sacks last year (Ebukam and Floyd combined for 7.5). We assume this is not as formidable a supporting cast in the front seven from Los Angeles. Still, this is guesswork so far.
Further, here are some stats from last year, which admittedly are better than nothing but probably not applicable with so many personnel changes.
New Rams DC Brandon Staley has been brought over from Denver as a longtime student of Vic Fangio’s Chicago defensive model, so he has worked with Floyd plenty and will attempt to recreate some of their old success. But there is not much on the edge or in the middle at linebacker, as the Rams front seven is almost completely rebuilt outside of the two big tackles with Donald and Brockers.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Kellen Moore vs. Brandon Staley
I am really interested in so many things beyond the specific matchups here because there will be significant expectations on the Cowboys’ offense from a macro level. But keep in mind that Week 1 presents a stiff road opponent, so attempt to remain pragmatic about this situation and know this will be dipping your toe in the water against a team with two elite defenders. It is not the worst plan to slowly work your way into how you deal with a team that hasn’t been known to play too much man or blitz overly often. That said, we aren’t dealing with Wade Phillips anymore.
I suspect Kellen Moore wants to get back to establishing a married run attack with a play-action game behind it. So you pound Zeke into the line a bit to get that eighth man in the box (the Rams sat in Cover 3 plenty in 2019) and the new linebackers fired up to get their run fits, which then gives you an opportunity to use your matchups in the passing game to really be decisive. I like the aerial matchups for Dallas if the protection can hold up, and that is best done in this game with play-action on early downs.
WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL
Before we get too far in the weeds on this matchup, I wish to review a tweet of mine from early in camp this year:
I think Jared Goff has regressed. I think losing Brandin Cooks and peak Todd Gurley is not ideal. But I also think people are kidding themselves if they believe there were not mitigating circumstances that bounced the Rams out of the playoffs in 2019 and similarly put them out in 2020.
Don’t believe that hype. They had the exact same OL for 80 of 80 starts in 2018. And as you can see from my visual aid, they hardly had the same line at all last year until Week 15.
Let’s not confuse that with excellence. They still have some real questions at almost every spot besides left tackle, where the only question about Andrew Whitworth is how long he wants to keep playing.
But take a look at how this should shape up Sunday night (the secondary is in flux):
(Here is the Rams 11 personnel projection vs Dallas in the nickel in passing situations)
As you know, we have endless questions about the Cowboys defense and what they might do. If I am correct, we will see many more man coverage and blitz looks over the course of 2020 than in several Rod Marinelli-coached years, as Dallas was 27th in man coverage and 26th in blitzes in 2019. But this might not be the week to break all of that out of its wrapping paper just yet.
Against an offense that has very good route-runners, excellent speed and a wonderful play-action offense of their own that employs all sorts of boots, jet sweeps and a quick game, I would imagine the Mike Nolan Week 1 plan will be to really pick your spots and attempt to make the Rams prove they can move the ball. That’s especially true against what we assume will be a formidable Dallas front seven with solid depth to start the year, despite the Gerald McCoy injury.
Many have asked why I put Aldon Smith inside and Everson Griffen outside in the nickel defense above, and the quick and easiest answer is I believe both of them (like Lawrence and Michael Bennett last season) can play the two positions well, which should give the defense an array of options to try to find ideal matchups. Trysten Hill makes more sense in these spots, as does using Dontari Poe to stifle things on early downs, but I will be learning about most of this on the fly with you all on Sunday night.
As you can see, don’t sleep on the Rams’ ability to protect Goff and to find big plays down the field. They just couldn’t get much going on the ground, and that means fewer teams worry about dedicating men to stop the run and can have a more populated secondary, which makes things tougher on your QB. It is all tied together.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Cam Akers and Van Jefferson vs. the Cowboys defenders
This is perhaps a cop-out, but the Rams really wanted more juice, especially when they couldn’t afford Brandin Cooks anymore, so they used top picks on these kids to help big-time at RB and WR. We believe they will both be involved in a large way immediately on Sunday. Jefferson, in particular, is a known quantity out of Florida who checks just about every box imaginable and seems in some respects to be a younger, cheaper version of the great Robert Woods on the outside. Pair that with Cooper Kupp and the tight end Everett, and they can really stress an uncertain and young secondary.
THE PICK: Cowboys 24, Rams 23
I have no idea why I am picking a game like this, as I expect this to be a situation where we have two teams with plenty of questions and all sorts of answers on the field. Never have I felt like I was flying so blind. With that in mind, I think Dallas can win this, but I would never consider laying three points on the road with so little idea what the Mike McCarthy team will look like and be willing to try right off the bat.
Still, I believe they have a very confident offensive group that needs to quickly put the final six weeks of 2019 behind them. Now they must lead the way immediately and get through this tricky four weeks with what you would hope would be three wins.
Either way, let’s turn the page and see what is next!
Happy Football, everyone.
By Bob Sturm Sep 11, 2020
Twenty-eight days since the truncated Dallas Cowboys training camp held its first full practice in Frisco, 149 days until Super Bowl 55 in Tampa and only two days until the 7:20 pm Sunday Night Football Week 1 showdown with the Los Angeles Rams at the all new SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA…
Ladies and gentlemen, we made it.
Many of us were concerned it would not work out, but we can officially declare that last night, the NFL did happen. It has started in earnest, and despite the awkwardness of most NFL stadiums not welcoming the fans back, we do have football.
And for that, this man is very pleased. I thank football for the return and all the joy and pain that awaits us, as it does every season.
The 2020 Cowboys have some very bright dreams, and with some picking them to go all the way to Tampa, I think it is fitting that they begin the season with a stiff prime-time test against an old, historic foe that has shown up on the schedule quite a bit recently: Those Los Angeles Rams.
This will be the fourth straight year these teams have played each other. Each has talking points:
- In 2017, the Rams won in Arlington when Sean McVay was just getting started and Todd Gurley was arguably the league’s MVP. The Cowboys linebackers had no answer at all.
- Then came the memorable showdown in the 2018 playoffs that ended a great run of form from Dallas post-Amari Cooper trade with a thumping at the LA Coliseum where the Rams ran the ball all over Dallas’ defense
- Finally, the unlikely blowout win for Dallas last December at the Death Star, in which Jared Goff looked lost and the Cowboys looked like a contender for about the only time after 2019’s bye week.
- Aaron Donald: six years, $135 million, $87 million guaranteed
- Jared Goff: four years, $134 million, $110 million guaranteed
- Jalen Ramsey: five years, $100 million, $71 million guaranteed
In both teams’ cases, the jury remains undecided about the success of that idea. In the Cowboys’ case, they continue to pursue their first NFC Championship Game since 1995. For the Rams, their majestic rise to the Super Bowl in the 2018 season (with a healthy break or two in New Orleans) led to their roster evolving at an incredible pace, as only six offensive starters and four defensive starters remain from the team that took the field in February of 2019 to try to win it all against New England. As it has demonstrated time and time again, the NFL really does stand for “Not For Long.”
If you divide the Cowboys’ schedule into four different four-game segments, I think the first four would the my second-toughest grouping. I believe Games 5-8 and 13-16 are easier (relatively), while 9-12 is probably the stiffest run (again).
But let’s not sleep on four “fringe playoff” teams. I don’t believe very many are taking the Rams, Falcons, Seahawks or Browns as favorites in their respective divisions, but they all have a decent chance and it would not rock us if any of them got in with a 9-7 or 10-6 record.
If we believe the Cowboys are better than that, we should hope they can hit the ground running.
Let’s size this one up, where Vegas has curiously installed the Cowboys as a three-point favorite.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
Below, please enjoy the “projected lineup” artwork that remains a staple of the Friday preview. Please note that these are merely projections of what the Cowboys will look like in their 11 personnel and how the Rams might match up in nickel. Nobody knows much after a preseason with no intel, and further, injury news will be tough to trust this season.
The Rams probably have the best defensive back and the best defensive tackle in pro football. That makes those matchups a real issue, of course, and we know that while the Cowboys have the benefit of three interchangeable and excellent receivers to mitigate Jalen Ramsey’s impact, they will not so lucky against Aaron Donald, where they will have to deal with big 99 squaring off and attempting to isolate Connor Williams and Joe Looney in different scenarios, probably leaving Zack Martin to deal with Michael Brockers as much as possible. Donald was absolutely unblockable in 2017 against Dallas (including going through Martin a few different times), although he has been less of a central figure in the last two meetings.
But Dallas knows that they have a very poor situation at right tackle and will surely be somewhat respectful of helping out Cam Erving against Samson Ebukam and Leonard Floyd. Both are far from Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews, who combined for 19.5 sacks last year (Ebukam and Floyd combined for 7.5). We assume this is not as formidable a supporting cast in the front seven from Los Angeles. Still, this is guesswork so far.
Further, here are some stats from last year, which admittedly are better than nothing but probably not applicable with so many personnel changes.
New Rams DC Brandon Staley has been brought over from Denver as a longtime student of Vic Fangio’s Chicago defensive model, so he has worked with Floyd plenty and will attempt to recreate some of their old success. But there is not much on the edge or in the middle at linebacker, as the Rams front seven is almost completely rebuilt outside of the two big tackles with Donald and Brockers.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Kellen Moore vs. Brandon Staley
I am really interested in so many things beyond the specific matchups here because there will be significant expectations on the Cowboys’ offense from a macro level. But keep in mind that Week 1 presents a stiff road opponent, so attempt to remain pragmatic about this situation and know this will be dipping your toe in the water against a team with two elite defenders. It is not the worst plan to slowly work your way into how you deal with a team that hasn’t been known to play too much man or blitz overly often. That said, we aren’t dealing with Wade Phillips anymore.
I suspect Kellen Moore wants to get back to establishing a married run attack with a play-action game behind it. So you pound Zeke into the line a bit to get that eighth man in the box (the Rams sat in Cover 3 plenty in 2019) and the new linebackers fired up to get their run fits, which then gives you an opportunity to use your matchups in the passing game to really be decisive. I like the aerial matchups for Dallas if the protection can hold up, and that is best done in this game with play-action on early downs.
WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL
Before we get too far in the weeds on this matchup, I wish to review a tweet of mine from early in camp this year:
I think Jared Goff has regressed. I think losing Brandin Cooks and peak Todd Gurley is not ideal. But I also think people are kidding themselves if they believe there were not mitigating circumstances that bounced the Rams out of the playoffs in 2019 and similarly put them out in 2020.
Don’t believe that hype. They had the exact same OL for 80 of 80 starts in 2018. And as you can see from my visual aid, they hardly had the same line at all last year until Week 15.
Let’s not confuse that with excellence. They still have some real questions at almost every spot besides left tackle, where the only question about Andrew Whitworth is how long he wants to keep playing.
But take a look at how this should shape up Sunday night (the secondary is in flux):
(Here is the Rams 11 personnel projection vs Dallas in the nickel in passing situations)
As you know, we have endless questions about the Cowboys defense and what they might do. If I am correct, we will see many more man coverage and blitz looks over the course of 2020 than in several Rod Marinelli-coached years, as Dallas was 27th in man coverage and 26th in blitzes in 2019. But this might not be the week to break all of that out of its wrapping paper just yet.
Against an offense that has very good route-runners, excellent speed and a wonderful play-action offense of their own that employs all sorts of boots, jet sweeps and a quick game, I would imagine the Mike Nolan Week 1 plan will be to really pick your spots and attempt to make the Rams prove they can move the ball. That’s especially true against what we assume will be a formidable Dallas front seven with solid depth to start the year, despite the Gerald McCoy injury.
Many have asked why I put Aldon Smith inside and Everson Griffen outside in the nickel defense above, and the quick and easiest answer is I believe both of them (like Lawrence and Michael Bennett last season) can play the two positions well, which should give the defense an array of options to try to find ideal matchups. Trysten Hill makes more sense in these spots, as does using Dontari Poe to stifle things on early downs, but I will be learning about most of this on the fly with you all on Sunday night.
As you can see, don’t sleep on the Rams’ ability to protect Goff and to find big plays down the field. They just couldn’t get much going on the ground, and that means fewer teams worry about dedicating men to stop the run and can have a more populated secondary, which makes things tougher on your QB. It is all tied together.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Cam Akers and Van Jefferson vs. the Cowboys defenders
This is perhaps a cop-out, but the Rams really wanted more juice, especially when they couldn’t afford Brandin Cooks anymore, so they used top picks on these kids to help big-time at RB and WR. We believe they will both be involved in a large way immediately on Sunday. Jefferson, in particular, is a known quantity out of Florida who checks just about every box imaginable and seems in some respects to be a younger, cheaper version of the great Robert Woods on the outside. Pair that with Cooper Kupp and the tight end Everett, and they can really stress an uncertain and young secondary.
THE PICK: Cowboys 24, Rams 23
I have no idea why I am picking a game like this, as I expect this to be a situation where we have two teams with plenty of questions and all sorts of answers on the field. Never have I felt like I was flying so blind. With that in mind, I think Dallas can win this, but I would never consider laying three points on the road with so little idea what the Mike McCarthy team will look like and be willing to try right off the bat.
Still, I believe they have a very confident offensive group that needs to quickly put the final six weeks of 2019 behind them. Now they must lead the way immediately and get through this tricky four weeks with what you would hope would be three wins.
Either way, let’s turn the page and see what is next!
Happy Football, everyone.
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data
Forbes #1
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Of course. The NFL doesn't care. They can't get tied down to long-term lung affects with just playing one game in this air condition, unlike CTE. But stepping outside, 170 aint no joke.
Chocolate Lab
Mere Commoner
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Wow, today is going to be absolutely awesome. Skins/Eagles, Pats/Fins, and Bucs/Saints before the Cowboys even play? So many interesting stories. Can't wait.
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