Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 17
The long awaited visit to Philadelphia has become less anticipated than first expected.
Bob Sturm
Dec 28, 2024
Two games to go! Two to go!
Fox had big dreams for this game in Week 17 as the centerpiece of their 3:25 window on Sunday, but a lot happens between April and December.
In this case, the NFC showdown game that could have decided the NFC East is instead a game that Fox is burying at noon and just trying to get through.
The Dallas Cowboys are going nowhere.
Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts are both injured and unavailable. Prescott has won eight of his last ten starts against the Eagles and is 9-4 in his career. Hurts has won three of his last four starts against Dallas and is 4-3 in his career. But we are operating under the assumption that neither will play, as Hurts is being held out now that their seeding is virtually academic.
Essentially, they are almost assured they cannot get the No. 1 seed from Detroit or Minnesota, but they are also assured they cannot lose the No. 2 seed. With that in mind, they get no bye week and will play the No. 7 seed. Even that is pretty locked in, leading us to believe the wildcard matchup of Washington at Philadelphia is going to happen.
Dallas is a full five games back of the Eagles and even made up a game last week. When you are 6-8 and your bitter rival is 12-2, well, you know that nothing really worked out for your hopes and dreams.
Be that as it may, we have two games to go.
These are my Cowboys-Eagles Pregame Three Thoughts:
When Dallas has the ball:
– After watching the Buccaneers defensive front work over the Cowboys offensive line, we are looking forward to seeing how they stack up against the Eagles front. Vic Fangio and his boys will test them plenty. One to be tested is the right tackle Terence Steele.
Steele is a very interesting discussion point as we look to the future of the Dallas Cowboys. He has the third-highest cap number in 2025 behind Dak and CeeDee, and as a right tackle up front, he should be the bridge to the next generation of the Cowboys' offensive line—especially if Zack Martin were to actually retire. But when the cap hit is significantly higher than the dead money, when a guy is not clearly a net-positive foundational player, and when the team feels it is being crunched financially, well, then we have to ask the questions, don’t we?
- Cap hit higher than dead money? Yes, by over $5m and twice that if you designate June 1.
- Is he a net-positive player right now? He has been better than 2023, but not quite back to 2022 pre-injury form.
- Will Dallas allow $18m against the cap for “good” play at tackle?
The issue with Steele this year has probably been that his worst three games in terms of grading has been smashing team failures against the Lions, Ravens, and 49ers. In other words, another player who does not seem to play well in the biggest and most physical games.
Above, please find another one of the Eagles' up-and-coming players: young Nolan Smith, who is circled (shoutout to Josh Clevenger) and will be testing both Dallas tackles as he switches from side to side frequently. Smith was the 30th overall pick in the 2023 draft and was brought along slowly. However, in the last 5–6 weeks, they have steadily increased his pass-rush snaps.
If you recall his performances at Georgia, he was always regarded as a player about whom people said, “In five years, this guy is going to rule the world,” and now we are about two years into that projection. He is second in sacks for the Eagles, and it is starting to show on film. His combination of speed and power is quickly resembling Micah Parsons. It may never quite reach that level, but the blurring highlights are becoming a weekly occurrence. The Eagles drafted him after losing the Super Bowl, and I think that suggests they continue to prioritize players with a long-term vision. Sometimes, you invest in development. The Eagles appear to have some success stories in that regard.
Speaking of success stories, look at what Vic Fangio did to this defense. Last year, the defense could not stop anyone, but now the green all over their rankings tells us that they are a solid football team that plays a strong, complimentary style that holds up now.
In 2023, defensively, they were 31st in passing, 31st in 3rd downs, 30th in the red zone. Try winning if you are that poor on all of the key moments and plays. Now, they are 2nd in passing defense, 6th on 3rd downs, and 9th in the red zone. Are they the best defense in the league? No. But, now they are one that can stand up when things get important and vital.
In a nutshell, the Cowboys offense was a laughing stock when they played the Eagles back in Week 10. The Cowboys passed for 49 yards as a team:
They couldn’t do anything right. It was the lowest number of passing yards since Dave Campo was the coach in 2001. So, my focus for the offense, since they won’t have CeeDee Lamb?
Show us you have developed as an offense as all of your veteran pieces are dropping off. The competitive nature of the offense might serve as a sort of referendum on its development. Run the ball and give the young guys, like Ryan Flournoy, a chance to continue their rise. Let’s see what they can do.
Speaking of running the ball, I am here to echo our guy Rico Dowdle and his quest for 1,000 yards. If it is important to him, then it is important to me. Here he is through 14 games (they sat him in San Francisco for a mystery illness that may not have been real):
He only needs 97 yards and has two games to get there. We can’t afford anything more like the Tampa Bay game and like I said, I can tell how much it means to him, so it means something to me because I root for him.
Now, to the other direction…
When The Eagles have the ball:
– I think the Cowboys defense will want to show they can stop the ground game, although, to be honest, we have questions about how much Saquon will even be risked. That said, the offensive line of the Eagles is what has shown might in 2024.
If you look at the stats, you see that the Eagles are a ground and pound organization right now. I don’t blame them at all, because that is a proven way to win late in the year. 1st in rushing and 31st in passing? Kellen Moore has had an interesting year for sure.
When I was watching these guys, I kept coming back to the Eagles' left tackle. Now, if you read me, you know I am most fascinated by one Eagles story: the amazing left tackle Jordan Mailata. He was one of the final picks (No. 233) in the 2018 draft in Dallas and was a rugby star who wanted to play American football. The fact that he made a team was amazing. Then, becoming a starter was incredible. But to be arguably the best left tackle in the NFL in 2024? That feels like an amazing Disney movie about a guy from Australia who decides to take a gamble—and it all works out in ways too ridiculous to imagine.
Just watch No. 68 cleaning dudes out in the run game. Then, watch him do well in pass protection, too. At 6’8, 365, we just have never seen a guy this good who had never played a single snap of football until he got to the NFL.
This video is remarkable and tells his whole story if you want to get caught up on that.
Obviously, Kenny Pickett is a much more enjoyable opposing QB than Jalen Hurts. Hurts appears to be slowly recovering from a concussion and perhaps an unofficial bye week for himself before their grind comes into focus.
As usual, can you defend AJ Brown and can you pressure the QB? If so, you should be in a great position. But, of course, if you cannot get there, then it will be a rough day in front of a fanbase that loves to see you lose.
– With CeeDee Lamb being shut down, we can now make a pretty good list of the high-end products on this team being out of the lineup and in many cases staying that way. We are not here to say that we excuse 2024, but we are here to acknowledge that this was one of those years where nobody stayed healthy and that stinks.
So, from our preseason roster rankings…here were the top 20 players:
- Micah Parsons - missed 4 games on IR
- CeeDee Lamb - missed 2 games on IR, shut down for season.
- Zack Martin - missed 7 games on IR, shut down for season.
- Tyler Smith - missed 1 game.
- Brandon Aubrey
- Trevon Diggs - missed 6 games on IR, shut down for season.
- Dak Prescott - missed 9 games on IR, shut down for season.
- DeMarcus Lawrence - missed 13 games on IR, shut down for season.
- DaRon Bland - missed 10 games on IR.
- Jake Ferguson - missed 5 games on IR.
- Terence Steele
- Osa Odighizua
- Sam Williams - missed the entire season on the IR.
- Brandin Cooks - missed 9 games on the IR.
- Malik Hooker
- Ezekiel Elliott - missed one game.
- Kavontae Turpin
- Bryan Anger
- Eric Kendricks - missed two games.
- Tyler Guyton - missed three games.
Now, again, I am not trying to advocate for excuses and we realize injuries are part of football. But, I did these rankings before the season and the injuries hit hard. Eight of the top 10 players spent time – a lot of time – out of the lineup. On a roster that was built top-heavy, that was more than they could come close to handling.
Yes, they were pretty poor when they had their whole team so we are not trying to claim otherwise, but that is a lot of injuries to the best part of your roster. We should try to remember that.
