Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Wk 10
Having lost their Quarterback, Dallas faces their old friends from Philadelphia at home.
Bob Sturm
Nov 08, 2024
<Image Removed - No need for enormous pictures of Eagle players>
Finally, one of the best rivalries in professional football is renewed this weekend in Dallas. The absolute mortal enemy, those Philadelphia Eagles come calling once again.
This will be the 127th meeting between the two teams and Dallas will be looking for its 72nd win against 55 losses to date. Odds are not great that they can avoid that 56th loss. These days the two teams are headed in opposite directions. And once again they will be starting a backup QB here and Philadelphia most certainly will not consider a merciful approach.
This will also be the 7th meeting between the two embattled head coaches. Based on how 2023 ended, you could argue both were under review for firing, but neither actually did get the walk to the end of the plank. Instead, both franchises decided on stability there, but with new coordinators introduced to the story and in the Eagles case, a few new main characters.
That appears to be a significant difference in approaches. Both teams had to sign their QBs and their star WRs, but only one team used that to also play in free agency and we all know that Howie Roseman is one of the most aggressive GM’s in the sport. He doesn’t get everything right, but he is also not going to wait around and see what happens or cry that he is out of resources. He actually does what Jerry Jones’ reputation suggests: that he will not resist making the organization uncomfortable with moves that shake things up.
We will get back to that in a second.
First, let’s look at the six meetings between Mike McCarthy and Nick Sirianni. Dallas has won four of the six from 2021-2023 and all three of the meetings in Dallas.
However, it is worth noting that we have seen few Jalen Hurts vs Dak Prescott games. Those meetings have Dak up, 2-1. Otherwise, two of the Dallas wins are against Gardner Minshew and one of the Eagles wins was against Cooper Rush.
That meeting, in October of 2022, was his final game filling in for Prescott and it went pretty poorly. However, it is really difficult to suggest we have any idea how that intel and report will affect this game because the Eagles defensive coordinator that night was Cardinals Head Coach Jonathan Gannon. Then Sean DeSai took the job in 2023, was replaced by Matt Patricia for a month, and now Vic Fangio runs their defense. If you think there is some instability in the Cowboys defense, imagine having four coordinators in 24 months.
But, Fangio is one of the best and he has never had a difficult time causing Mike McCarthy’s offense problems. Additionally, the Eagles defense has been remade and seems awfully formidable as they attempt to regain their footing in the NFC playoff race – a spot where Dallas knows they are not.
And now, they get together for a clash on Sunday:
The Eagles are properly more than a touchdown favorite and have not lost a game since September. Dallas did win on October 6th, but that is over a month in the rearview mirror, as well. And now we assume Prescott is gone for the year, most likely.
This one could be a tough day in the making.
But, as always, these are my Cowboys PreGame Three Thoughts:
– While Cooper Rush will give the Cowboys a safe approach, I look forward to any chance that might be presented both Sunday and through the next month to work in Trey Lance.
When Dallas has the ball:
Listen, I don’t know who needs to hear this –
besides Skip Bayless – but Cooper Rush is what you call a dead-bang-average backup NFL QB. He is not better than the starter and it isn’t close. Even he will tell you that. Every team needs one of these guys and you always are looking to upgrade without losing the intelligence and experience of a guy like Rush because there will come a time in his career where you need him to win a few games in a season to keep a playoff-campaign alive. If QB1 misses a month, you would love if your career understudy could go 2-2. Rush has been that guy.
But, that was based on taking a good team and not allowing QB to ruin the quality elsewhere on the roster.
This isn’t that. This is a bad team that is going nowhere and we have seen they don’t measure up against playoff teams like Baltimore, Detroit, and San Francisco, so we definitely know that there is almost nothing he could do.
Rush somehow has some readers thinking he is an upgrade. That is false. It has always been false, but emotions play tricks on us. So, if I may, here is a portion of his PFF page for his career.
The three red boxes are where I would draw your attention. His passing grades are consistently where they sit - in the mid 50’s. What does that mean?
Now, the grades are not perfect, but just to be clear, despite the team winning those games, his passing grades for his entire career have never moved off the mid 50’s. Then, the other two columns are “BTT” or big time throws and “TWP” which are turnover worthy plays. Basically, this is a better approach to TD/INT ratio and such. I am not trying to rub anything in here, but 7 career big-time throws and 14 turnover-worthy plays tell us that he is precisely what he has always been. A very smart backup QB who knows the offense and will struggle to make plays of any level of difficulty.
Given this offense is already below-average, I am ready to suggest that working in more Trey Lance as we go is the path I would push for. Maybe not this week as a full-time player, but if we go through this Eagles and Texans home-stand with no real positive views, I don’t see why you wouldn’t find out more information about Lance.
He is 24 years old.
I am on record a number of times suggesting that I don’t see much here, but there is no doubt he has considerable tools and potential. How would you feel if in three years he is a fine player and you had him in your building for two full seasons and never found out?
I really don’t see much case for finding out more on Cooper Rush. We know him well. We know his ceiling and his floor. Lance is at least a small mystery. And maybe the rest of 2024 should be about solving those mysteries.
The bottom line on this matchup is that the Eagles defense is better. Is it fixed? Probably not completely, but they are on their path and the defense is loaded with young and drafted talent and having Fangio to put it together is a smart move.
When you look at that defensive depth chart for the Eagles, you just don’t see much in terms of older players anymore. Darius Slay is a vet, but I bet the average age of those other 10 starters is about 24. They are a really impressive group of prospects and now they are being turned loose. Fangio teaches a suffocating defense that also does not give up big plays, so I am interested in seeing how it looks.
Meanwhile, as we were preparing for this game, I looked at Saints draft pick Zack Baun. Baun was a 3rd rounder in 2020 for New Orleans, but never really did much there. This season he signed a small deal to perhaps fix the Eagles at LB and I think the film is convincing that he is doing just that:
Baun is No. 53 and all over this tape. He was an edge out of Wisconsin in a 3-4, but I like him in the middle there as a run-and-hit LB. He has really been good for them, so keep an eye out.
Ok, let’s flip the field to see why the Eagles look like a heavyweight:
When The Eagles have the ball:
– The Eagles paid for a Running Back and now the entire league feels like they need to be smarter about the RB position. Saquon makes them a championship contender.
Just watch this tape. All of these plays were in the 1st half of last week’s game against Jacksonville. Barkley is incredible right now:
That is 1:27 of football and if that doesn’t scare you, I don’t know what will. This similarities between the Eagles getting Saquon and the 49ers trading for Christian McCaffrey in 2022 is pretty obvious. For contenders, running backs absolutely matter and because they have been so devalued, the prices are actually quite reasonable.
The Eagles signed him from a division rival for 3 years/$37.5m, or 12.5m per season. Think about that price. They gave up no picks, guaranteed him just $26m - or just slightly less than the Falcons gave Darnell Mooney. No offense to Mooney, but he isn’t changing the balance of power in the NFL. Barkley, at this rate, might be.
I don’t think the Giants made a critical mistake because they are not a contender. But, for the Eagles to be able to add him to what they already have in place makes them a massive headache for someone like Mike Zimmer to corral. This is a very rough matchup for the Cowboys defense .
Then again, who hasn’t been a rough matchup?
The addition of Barkley has allowed the Eagles to balance out their offense much better. They know Jalen Hurts can be effective, but in doses. Now, they can run the ball, control the clock, and even use Barkley to aid the passing game. To add him to a offense with these WR/TE threats makes Kellen Moore’s job amazingly simple. Pick something that hurts the defense and then keep picking away. Moore’s only issue will be deciding where to hurt Dallas.
Because this tale of the tape is pretty one-sided.
We believe Micah Parsons will be back and I will certainly say that watching him play football is always a pleasure. Let’s see if his return can suddenly allow the Cowboys to attack a little more on defense. They have surely become a passive defense in his absence.
– Lastly, Mike McCarthy gave us four minutes of team-building talk this week and it certainly demonstrates that he has some thoughts on how poorly this offseason went for the personnel department.
At his core, he is an honorable coach. He will not be disloyal and he will not sit here and blame everyone else. He knows he is about to be fired and he probably is fine with his fate.
But, he also did offer some thoughts on the way this offseason went. In particular, he bristled at the thought of Dallas trying to shop the defensive tackle market in mid-August as they brought in a number of hopeful last-minute acquisitions because they saw they were in trouble.
Jordan Phillips was a disaster. Linval Joseph has barely moved the needle. Carl Davis didn’t make the team. The plans for defensive tackle were these guys who were all largely street free-agents as we left California and I guess the hope was that Mazi Smith was going to step forward and Osa Odighizuwa was going to make his free agent status a top priority.
In the end, we could argue they had a very predictable season as all five of their defensive tackles have horrid run defense grades and the depth chart for 2025 looks completely empty. They shopped in the free-bin and the play has reflected those price tags.
So, McCarthy is going to be fired and it some ways it will be his fault. But, in other ways, as he says he would want his roster to be in place by April, we are left to wonder if they realize just how many players they will need to bring in for this not to repeat under a new coaching staff in 2025.
Sigh.