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Decoding McCarthy – Winning Third Downs
While the red zone gets the negativity going, Cowboys keep moving the chains
BOB STURM
OCT 3, 2023
I get it. Negativity gets people fired up. The traffic is better after a loss because people want to rage. Good news? It is satisfying to some, but research seems to verify that if you are trying to get people worked up into a frenzy, we must tell them about the looming doom around the next corner.
That is why this red zone discussion is so overcooked.
Of course, it is a concern.
You would always want a touchdown over a field goal in every situation. But, we are at the point of the season where the samples are so tiny that all it takes is one good red zone game and a team can shoot from the bottom of the league to the middle.
You also want to be ranked first in everything. When analyzing a football team, we have access to hundreds of team stats and we can compare them to every other team. You can find out how they rank in everything. The numbers are overwhelming if you don’t know what you are looking for. So, over the years in working with Troy Aikman, we decided on the 10 that were most important to us when looking at an offense and use those same 10 for flipping it to defense.
They are: offensive points scored, yards per game, rushing yards per game, passing yards per game, 3rd down conversion percentage, red zone td conversion percentage, explosive play percentage, sacks allowed per attempt, points scored per drive, and turnover percentage.
It keeps it simple and easy to consume. A quick scan of the “big 10” will give us a wellness check on a team. You want lots of green and no red. Here is Dallas offense in 2023:
Sixteenth is middle of the league, so we quickly see that everything is above average besides the red zone. But, let’s give you the good news, they are “top 5” in four categories:
Third-down offense is one of the best tells of a quality group that you will find every year. It also tells you how good your QB is. And if you want to see the five-year rolling average to verify things, Patrick Mahomes is first and Dak Prescott is second in third-down conversion percentages. For years, this was Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and yes, Tony Romo. Third downs are the best test for mental acuity and the ability to understand and punish defenses for trying to ambush you with blitzes and trick coverages. In other words, young QBs do not do nearly as well as the smart veterans.
One of the bewildering discoveries of visiting with Cowboys fans on social media is finding out how few of them are aware that Prescott is great at what they think he is horrible at.
He can’t read defenses! Actually, he does every week at a high and verifiable level.
He can’t beat blitzes! Well, he beats blitzes as a rate higher than most every QB in the sport.
He misses throws! He does, but at a rate that is normal in this impossible sport. Basically, I think they are saying he hasn’t won a Super Bowl and on that point we all agree. But, it isn’t because he can’t play QB at a very high level.
All we can do here is show you the truth that statistics and film can verify. The truth is that over the course many years, this team has a high efficiency on its offense because they have a highly efficient QB. More on that below in the film study.
Now, quickly, here are the numbers from Week 4 for the offense only. The 23 points were offensive-only points so you aren’t confused by our graphic (thanks, Alex!)
I will draw your attention to the increase in first-down passing rates. The Cowboys have been 60% run on first down and I know they want to establish their identity and protect their banged up offensive line, but you have to get that balanced better. There are too many attractive first down passing benefits to get carried away. I realize they want physicality and also to take care of the ball, but seeing this adjustment out of the Arizona game makes plenty of sense.
The third downs were masterful in this game and the red zone was not, but there are some details we need to get into.
Here are the personnel groupings:
As you can see, the 10 personnel wrinkle from the Jets game was just that. They are staying in a world of 11 and 12 personnel for most of their offense (55 of 69 snaps) and 11 of the remaining 14 were to get Hunter Luepke on the field.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK
I don’t want Decoding McCarthy to be just about the outcome, the big plays, and Dak Prescott each week. So, perhaps I can give you a small section where we talk about a player who is worth talking about here.
This week it is LG Tyler Smith. He has been back for two games and has played 152 snaps and they have all been dominant. He is starting his 2nd year and there is still a debate of whether he is a tackle or a guard ultimately, because he can do both. I should also tell you I have a very famous moment of misevaluating Smith at Tulsa, so perhaps take my opinion with a grain of apologetic salt.
That said, for me, Tyler Smith is a guard. He can be a good tackle, but he can be a great guard. By the way, as of right now (very small sample), PFF has him ranked as the best blocking lineman in the league with a 93.1 grade. Trent Williams is second at 88.8 percent and is the left tackle beast in San Francisco to show you the company he is keeping. I was watching his work last night and wanted to show you these three snaps that are just magnificent from Tyler (No. 73).
Help secure the double on the nose and then get to the LB with ease. Pollard cuts off his hip into the secondary. Hulk smashing.
Building a corridor on a zone where again he easily gets two defenders.
And then this teach tape of running 99-Keion White right out of the club. He is just so strong and mobile now and I think he is best in the trenches with the “bigs” and a little less dominant on the edges with those guys in space. I think I am tempted to keep him inside.
So, there, Tyler Smith, our offensive player of the week!
DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
It is worth noting how short most of Dak Prescott’s passes are this year. When people ask what are the differences we are seeing, it is how his ADOT or average depth of target is way low.
I mean way low.
His career average has been 8.6 and his career low is 7.9 from 2018. This year his ADOT is sitting at 6.2 and I don’t fully grasp the why behind it. But, it will be interesting to see how long they stay with this trend. 6.2 is tied with the lowest in the league. Now before you read much into it, Joe Burrow is right there, too, and it is a long season. Just something to monitor.
Let’s get into the film:
FILM STUDY
1Q - 12:46 - 2nd and 6 - NE 18 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to L.Schoonmaker.
This is a red-zone killer. Middle field open as you catch the Patriots in Cover 2. This is absolutely a chance to get your TE on a seam up the hash. The linebacker is running with him and if you can put the back shoulder throw right on Luke Schoonmaker, you have a touchdown. Once he turns his back, it is over. But, Schoonmaker does not make the play. I want to leave open the possibility that the LB-Bentley got his hand on it, but these tight ends have to make these catches if the red zone is going to improve. I believe this throw is perfect despite the twitter pushback (what else is new?). The catch must be made.
It reminds you of Week 1 when Peyton Hendershot had the same play hit him in both hands:
Fellas, come on. This is the NFL. If you want the ball to come to you, you must deliver. Dak can’t catch it for you.
1Q - 12:41 - 3rd and 6 - NE 18 - D.Prescott pass short right to J.Ferguson to NE 4 for 14 yards
I want to focus on the third-down plan which includes the Patriots bringing a fair amount of blitzes on this day and the QB quickly diagnosing and hitting Ferguson for an easy 1st down if he can make Jalen Mills miss. He does and almost is able to get to the end zone. The bunch at the bottom allows for an easy release and quick target for Dak against a 5-man pressure. Again, have quick solutions for your QB.
1Q - 1:34 - 2nd and 5 - NE 20 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the play immediately after the Patriots lost their rookie corner Christian Gonzalez and there is 27-Myles Bryant on an island against CeeDee Lamb. This must be where you make them pay for the disrespect. 13 personnel and it is like practice warm-ups as Lamb’s release stacks Bryant and Dak drops it in the bucket with ease. Touchdown, but since the ball is right on the 20, it does not count as a red zone TD.
2Q - 12:50 - 3rd and 8 - DAL 43 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 33 for -10 yards (J.Uche).
This is the big sack on Dak where everyone held their breath for a moment as Prescott got slammed hard. It is a pretty basic stunt between 90 and 91 where 91-Wise crashes down main street and Tyler Biadasz does not get it sorted out in time. You can see his reaction is how we know this is exactly what happened. Tyler Smith is waiting to give help to Chuma Edoga on Matthew Judon, but Judon is not actually rushing. Wise gets there and then sets up Josh Uche for the power slam. Luckily, Prescott popped back up with no clavicle issues. That was a 3rd down failure, but most of them were sorted out much better.
2Q - 5:57 - 3rd and 5 - NE 23 - D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Ferguson to NE 11 for 12 yards
The Patriots here are going to send a big blitz with a Cover 0 behind it. That means everyone is in man coverage with no help so if Dak can find a guy, you are one broken tackle from a touchdown. Credit to the protection as this is well done and sorted nicely. Pollard gets over and protects Dak, but Prescott must get it out quickly. Ferguson is the easiest conversion so he picks well and again, Ferguson keeps improving as a pass-catcher and a guy who is not easy to get to the ground.
Second half now…
3Q - 10:17 - 3rd and 6 - NE 33 - D.Prescott pass short right to M.Gallup pushed ob at NE 14 for 19 yards
This one is bizarre and I think the Patriots are confused. Five-man blitz, but they are bringing their safety, 23-Dugger, who looks like he is tracking Deuce Vaughn at the snap. They need 6 yards on this 3rd down and the Patriots scheme up the free runner. Dak has to get the ball out quick and take a hit. He throws hot to Gallup which is correct and it goes for a nice play. I don’t quite understand the Patriots though. They have two guys running deep middle on top of eachother and Brandin Cooks is left uncovered at the sticks. Surely a blown coverage but from the end zone, I don’t think Dak has any time to look at that because the offensive line has no idea Dugger is an issue.
End zone view
By the time Cooks appears in the screen, Dugger is 3 yards from tattooing Prescott. I think Belichick could not wait to blitz with Vaughn in the game and even if they send him out and make it SCAT protection (the OL only), the pressure is going to test how fast Dak can get the ball to his guys while being measured for a big hit. This is perfectly done.
4Q - 10:59 - 1st and 15 - DAL 32 - K.Turpin right end to NE 22 for 46 yards (M.Bryant). FUMBLES (M.Bryant), recovered by DAL-S.McKeon at NE 14.
Here we show the Kavontae Turpin wrinkle which saved the rushing stats on Sunday. Without this play, they are 29 rushes for 78 yards (2.7 per) instead of 30 rushes for 124 yards (4.1 per). Hilarious what one play can do to your average, right? Anyway, we need much more of this. 12 personnel and a simple motion jet sweep like every high school in America runs. Notice nobody on the defense goes with Turpin. That does declare a man vs zone, but it also shows you the value of motion in an offense. Why? Because, by Turpin sprinting from left to right, the Patriots are now out-numbered on the right flank. Turpin has the ball and we now see that if the double tight ends get their blocks, he might break this for a touchdown. Credit to Dugger for turning him back so Bryant can catch him from behind and ultimately punch the ball loose. Also credit Sean McKeon for hustle to recover yet another Cowboys fumble (they have been pretty lucky this year to get on their own fumbles so much), but it shows you the weapon they have in Turpin.
Speed kills.
4Q - 6:41 - 3rd and Goal - NE 3 - H.Luepke right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Finally, Hunter Luepke’s moment that shows he can possibly be the 2023 Ezekiel Elliott goal-line back. This is good work right here as he cuts back inside. I think the Cowboys need a bit more of a push in these situations and a few plays this year have made me think that Luepke might be more of an answer than we first thought. I don’t think he is a fullback. I think he might be a big RB with some TE potential as a blocker or H-Back. It is early, but let’s keep an eye on this one.
That’s all for today, but I am planning a rewatch of the 49ers playoff game to get back in that frame of mind about this matchup. Very excited to prepare for this showdown game after the defensive breakdown tomorrow.
While the red zone gets the negativity going, Cowboys keep moving the chains
BOB STURM
OCT 3, 2023
I get it. Negativity gets people fired up. The traffic is better after a loss because people want to rage. Good news? It is satisfying to some, but research seems to verify that if you are trying to get people worked up into a frenzy, we must tell them about the looming doom around the next corner.
That is why this red zone discussion is so overcooked.
Of course, it is a concern.
You would always want a touchdown over a field goal in every situation. But, we are at the point of the season where the samples are so tiny that all it takes is one good red zone game and a team can shoot from the bottom of the league to the middle.
You also want to be ranked first in everything. When analyzing a football team, we have access to hundreds of team stats and we can compare them to every other team. You can find out how they rank in everything. The numbers are overwhelming if you don’t know what you are looking for. So, over the years in working with Troy Aikman, we decided on the 10 that were most important to us when looking at an offense and use those same 10 for flipping it to defense.
They are: offensive points scored, yards per game, rushing yards per game, passing yards per game, 3rd down conversion percentage, red zone td conversion percentage, explosive play percentage, sacks allowed per attempt, points scored per drive, and turnover percentage.
It keeps it simple and easy to consume. A quick scan of the “big 10” will give us a wellness check on a team. You want lots of green and no red. Here is Dallas offense in 2023:
Sixteenth is middle of the league, so we quickly see that everything is above average besides the red zone. But, let’s give you the good news, they are “top 5” in four categories:
- 5th in sack rate as they have provided a reasonably clean pocket
- 5th in points per drive. Adjusting for pace, 2.46 per drive is excellent.
- 3rd in turnover rate. In short, Dallas is not turning the ball over.
- 1st in 3rd down conversions. Very good sign here.
Third-down offense is one of the best tells of a quality group that you will find every year. It also tells you how good your QB is. And if you want to see the five-year rolling average to verify things, Patrick Mahomes is first and Dak Prescott is second in third-down conversion percentages. For years, this was Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and yes, Tony Romo. Third downs are the best test for mental acuity and the ability to understand and punish defenses for trying to ambush you with blitzes and trick coverages. In other words, young QBs do not do nearly as well as the smart veterans.
One of the bewildering discoveries of visiting with Cowboys fans on social media is finding out how few of them are aware that Prescott is great at what they think he is horrible at.
He can’t read defenses! Actually, he does every week at a high and verifiable level.
He can’t beat blitzes! Well, he beats blitzes as a rate higher than most every QB in the sport.
He misses throws! He does, but at a rate that is normal in this impossible sport. Basically, I think they are saying he hasn’t won a Super Bowl and on that point we all agree. But, it isn’t because he can’t play QB at a very high level.
All we can do here is show you the truth that statistics and film can verify. The truth is that over the course many years, this team has a high efficiency on its offense because they have a highly efficient QB. More on that below in the film study.
Now, quickly, here are the numbers from Week 4 for the offense only. The 23 points were offensive-only points so you aren’t confused by our graphic (thanks, Alex!)
I will draw your attention to the increase in first-down passing rates. The Cowboys have been 60% run on first down and I know they want to establish their identity and protect their banged up offensive line, but you have to get that balanced better. There are too many attractive first down passing benefits to get carried away. I realize they want physicality and also to take care of the ball, but seeing this adjustment out of the Arizona game makes plenty of sense.
The third downs were masterful in this game and the red zone was not, but there are some details we need to get into.
Here are the personnel groupings:
As you can see, the 10 personnel wrinkle from the Jets game was just that. They are staying in a world of 11 and 12 personnel for most of their offense (55 of 69 snaps) and 11 of the remaining 14 were to get Hunter Luepke on the field.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE WEEK
I don’t want Decoding McCarthy to be just about the outcome, the big plays, and Dak Prescott each week. So, perhaps I can give you a small section where we talk about a player who is worth talking about here.
This week it is LG Tyler Smith. He has been back for two games and has played 152 snaps and they have all been dominant. He is starting his 2nd year and there is still a debate of whether he is a tackle or a guard ultimately, because he can do both. I should also tell you I have a very famous moment of misevaluating Smith at Tulsa, so perhaps take my opinion with a grain of apologetic salt.
That said, for me, Tyler Smith is a guard. He can be a good tackle, but he can be a great guard. By the way, as of right now (very small sample), PFF has him ranked as the best blocking lineman in the league with a 93.1 grade. Trent Williams is second at 88.8 percent and is the left tackle beast in San Francisco to show you the company he is keeping. I was watching his work last night and wanted to show you these three snaps that are just magnificent from Tyler (No. 73).
Help secure the double on the nose and then get to the LB with ease. Pollard cuts off his hip into the secondary. Hulk smashing.
Building a corridor on a zone where again he easily gets two defenders.
And then this teach tape of running 99-Keion White right out of the club. He is just so strong and mobile now and I think he is best in the trenches with the “bigs” and a little less dominant on the edges with those guys in space. I think I am tempted to keep him inside.
So, there, Tyler Smith, our offensive player of the week!
DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
It is worth noting how short most of Dak Prescott’s passes are this year. When people ask what are the differences we are seeing, it is how his ADOT or average depth of target is way low.
I mean way low.
His career average has been 8.6 and his career low is 7.9 from 2018. This year his ADOT is sitting at 6.2 and I don’t fully grasp the why behind it. But, it will be interesting to see how long they stay with this trend. 6.2 is tied with the lowest in the league. Now before you read much into it, Joe Burrow is right there, too, and it is a long season. Just something to monitor.
Let’s get into the film:
FILM STUDY
1Q - 12:46 - 2nd and 6 - NE 18 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to L.Schoonmaker.
This is a red-zone killer. Middle field open as you catch the Patriots in Cover 2. This is absolutely a chance to get your TE on a seam up the hash. The linebacker is running with him and if you can put the back shoulder throw right on Luke Schoonmaker, you have a touchdown. Once he turns his back, it is over. But, Schoonmaker does not make the play. I want to leave open the possibility that the LB-Bentley got his hand on it, but these tight ends have to make these catches if the red zone is going to improve. I believe this throw is perfect despite the twitter pushback (what else is new?). The catch must be made.
It reminds you of Week 1 when Peyton Hendershot had the same play hit him in both hands:
Fellas, come on. This is the NFL. If you want the ball to come to you, you must deliver. Dak can’t catch it for you.
1Q - 12:41 - 3rd and 6 - NE 18 - D.Prescott pass short right to J.Ferguson to NE 4 for 14 yards
I want to focus on the third-down plan which includes the Patriots bringing a fair amount of blitzes on this day and the QB quickly diagnosing and hitting Ferguson for an easy 1st down if he can make Jalen Mills miss. He does and almost is able to get to the end zone. The bunch at the bottom allows for an easy release and quick target for Dak against a 5-man pressure. Again, have quick solutions for your QB.
1Q - 1:34 - 2nd and 5 - NE 20 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the play immediately after the Patriots lost their rookie corner Christian Gonzalez and there is 27-Myles Bryant on an island against CeeDee Lamb. This must be where you make them pay for the disrespect. 13 personnel and it is like practice warm-ups as Lamb’s release stacks Bryant and Dak drops it in the bucket with ease. Touchdown, but since the ball is right on the 20, it does not count as a red zone TD.
2Q - 12:50 - 3rd and 8 - DAL 43 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 33 for -10 yards (J.Uche).
This is the big sack on Dak where everyone held their breath for a moment as Prescott got slammed hard. It is a pretty basic stunt between 90 and 91 where 91-Wise crashes down main street and Tyler Biadasz does not get it sorted out in time. You can see his reaction is how we know this is exactly what happened. Tyler Smith is waiting to give help to Chuma Edoga on Matthew Judon, but Judon is not actually rushing. Wise gets there and then sets up Josh Uche for the power slam. Luckily, Prescott popped back up with no clavicle issues. That was a 3rd down failure, but most of them were sorted out much better.
2Q - 5:57 - 3rd and 5 - NE 23 - D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Ferguson to NE 11 for 12 yards
The Patriots here are going to send a big blitz with a Cover 0 behind it. That means everyone is in man coverage with no help so if Dak can find a guy, you are one broken tackle from a touchdown. Credit to the protection as this is well done and sorted nicely. Pollard gets over and protects Dak, but Prescott must get it out quickly. Ferguson is the easiest conversion so he picks well and again, Ferguson keeps improving as a pass-catcher and a guy who is not easy to get to the ground.
Second half now…
3Q - 10:17 - 3rd and 6 - NE 33 - D.Prescott pass short right to M.Gallup pushed ob at NE 14 for 19 yards
This one is bizarre and I think the Patriots are confused. Five-man blitz, but they are bringing their safety, 23-Dugger, who looks like he is tracking Deuce Vaughn at the snap. They need 6 yards on this 3rd down and the Patriots scheme up the free runner. Dak has to get the ball out quick and take a hit. He throws hot to Gallup which is correct and it goes for a nice play. I don’t quite understand the Patriots though. They have two guys running deep middle on top of eachother and Brandin Cooks is left uncovered at the sticks. Surely a blown coverage but from the end zone, I don’t think Dak has any time to look at that because the offensive line has no idea Dugger is an issue.
End zone view
By the time Cooks appears in the screen, Dugger is 3 yards from tattooing Prescott. I think Belichick could not wait to blitz with Vaughn in the game and even if they send him out and make it SCAT protection (the OL only), the pressure is going to test how fast Dak can get the ball to his guys while being measured for a big hit. This is perfectly done.
4Q - 10:59 - 1st and 15 - DAL 32 - K.Turpin right end to NE 22 for 46 yards (M.Bryant). FUMBLES (M.Bryant), recovered by DAL-S.McKeon at NE 14.
Here we show the Kavontae Turpin wrinkle which saved the rushing stats on Sunday. Without this play, they are 29 rushes for 78 yards (2.7 per) instead of 30 rushes for 124 yards (4.1 per). Hilarious what one play can do to your average, right? Anyway, we need much more of this. 12 personnel and a simple motion jet sweep like every high school in America runs. Notice nobody on the defense goes with Turpin. That does declare a man vs zone, but it also shows you the value of motion in an offense. Why? Because, by Turpin sprinting from left to right, the Patriots are now out-numbered on the right flank. Turpin has the ball and we now see that if the double tight ends get their blocks, he might break this for a touchdown. Credit to Dugger for turning him back so Bryant can catch him from behind and ultimately punch the ball loose. Also credit Sean McKeon for hustle to recover yet another Cowboys fumble (they have been pretty lucky this year to get on their own fumbles so much), but it shows you the weapon they have in Turpin.
Speed kills.
4Q - 6:41 - 3rd and Goal - NE 3 - H.Luepke right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Finally, Hunter Luepke’s moment that shows he can possibly be the 2023 Ezekiel Elliott goal-line back. This is good work right here as he cuts back inside. I think the Cowboys need a bit more of a push in these situations and a few plays this year have made me think that Luepke might be more of an answer than we first thought. I don’t think he is a fullback. I think he might be a big RB with some TE potential as a blocker or H-Back. It is early, but let’s keep an eye on this one.
That’s all for today, but I am planning a rewatch of the 49ers playoff game to get back in that frame of mind about this matchup. Very excited to prepare for this showdown game after the defensive breakdown tomorrow.
