Quick Hit: Dak Has His Deal - 4 yrs/$240m
We wasted a lot of time to end up in a place that seemed incredibly clear all along.
Bob Sturm
Sep 08, 2024
I will be brief here (for once) because we have football to watch at noon.
It is finally done. I can stop writing pieces on why it will get done because apparently it was all pretty much correct.
Dak Prescott has been signed and the numbers are huge as expected: 4 years, $240 million with $231 guaranteed
thanks to Tom Pelissero.

Why $231 guaranteed? Well, that was probably the sticking point. The Todd France proposal surely said $240 guaranteed and the Cowboys balked. They probably wanted it way closer to the practical guarantee of Joe Burrow ($219m) and they were told he isn’t doing it for less than DeShaun Watson got in 2022. So, his $230m was exceeded by one million dollars to $231 million.
The Cowboys did it because they had no other reasonable choice. I have said that all along. Yes, he is flawed and yes he is frustrating, but he is also one of 10 in the world who can do what he can do. Those who are better are not going to be made available until they are used up by their current employers and the glittering young college kids will require you trade everything for a chance to draft them.
We told you the Cowboys had no leverage and no path to his successor and secretly, they knew it, too.
It came down to what
we wrote last Friday:
To me, there are some real relevant facts about the NFL in 2024-2028 that help me arrive at the simple point that the next 8 days are vital for this franchise.
- There are very few QBs who would be an upgrade over Dak Prescott over that period of time. Very few.
- Those who are upgrades are secured and under contract by their teams over that stretch.
- The Cowboys have never had a losing record in a season where he was the primary starter.
- The Cowboys are either in the playoffs or deep in the playoff mix every year he has been the primary starter.
- He is 31 and in 2028’s season he will be 35 - a QB prime.
- Just like his last contract, the next one will both be A) market value relative to other QBs in his category and B) outdated 24 months after he signs it with the NFL cap rising like a comet.
They knew it. They tried to say they could move on, but they knew they were in checkmate because they knew they did it themselves.
I believe the Cowboys have not handled their QB contract situation correctly from the day Dak was proven to be worthy of a second deal. I have documented that carefully over the last six years. It is all here to see. They botched the early signing. They botched the franchise tag. They botched the second tag. They botched the annual payouts for this second deal ($40 million in dead money in 2025????), and to make matters more ridiculous, they have barely invested in a replacement at any time.
Meanwhile, since his broken ankle, he has put three 12-win seasons out there and while the playoffs have not gone well enough, that isn’t relevant when it comes to the QB marketplace. I’m sorry, but it is true. You remember the Romo quote?
“The regular season is where you make your money and the playoffs are where you make your legacy.”
Guess what? He was right on both counts. Ask Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, etc.
They knew and they tried to act like they were willing to take on the future without him, but they knew they were bluffing and so did we.
Back to last Friday:
So, there are now two paths left, I believe.
The first one is that a deal is done by dinner next Saturday. If deadlines make deals, all of these tough and firm comments from both parties are merely the normal final death rattles before a deal gets done. I have seen this many times, and so have you. They all talk tough, and then someone cracks because the end is emerging. There is a hypothetical that the deal could be struck in-season or after-season but before free agency, but the rising economy will only make that hurt more. I also think that since Dak can walk free, they should not allow him to get comfortable with thoughts of New York or Las Vegas living in his future.
The second one is that he is one of the only QBs in NFL history who has the credentials from up above—starter for years of a winning franchise that is always in the playoffs and only 31 years old—and leaves for nothing as an unrestricted free agent in his prime. His team is left with nothing besides a “fresh start” and elects to rebuild for years over a few million dollars.
I admit at dinner last night I was wondering if I was wrong. Where was this deal?
And then I saw the deal this morning – still before kickoff – and realized they were just messing with me.
The money is the money and when the cap hits $330m in 2026, $60m AAV will be right at 18.1% of the total cap. That number is about $46m in 2024 cap money and $33m in 2021. In other words, when he signed his deal in 2021, he was at 22% of the cap and by the second year of his new deal he will have actually dropped to 18%.
Football is lucrative. How will you sign Micah Parsons now? Easily.
The question is whether this group of absurdly rich athletes can combine to win something around here and end the 10,000 days in the wilderness while Jerry (and the rest of us) is still alive to see it.
Now, on to the games…