Cowboys find out plenty about themselves in season-opening loss: Sturm’s Morning After

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Sep 9, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys defensive end Tarell Basham (93) and teammates react after the game wining field goal by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the game winning field goal during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

By Bob Sturm Sep 10, 2021

There are a thousand pieces written about every Dallas Cowboys game and I appreciate you picking this one to be on your list. That said, if you love loathing the claim of morale-boosting and learning through painful defeats early in the season, then you might want someone a bit more edgy today.

Because last night, I watched the 2021 Cowboys debut against an opponent that seemed to present as tough a challenge on both sides of the ball as you will find all season. They played in a hostile stadium with questions about ability and preparedness abounding in every direction. They faced adversity in the game where it could have gone in a bad direction in short order. And they lost a game that best resembles the NBA playoffs. You work your tail off for three hours, compete as hard as you can, and win your share of the smaller battles — yet in the end, it comes down to one moment in time and one shot for your opponent. If it fails, all your work was smaller parts of a victory. If the shot succeeds though, your blood, sweat and tears that night will feel empty on the flight home.

We kinda knew where this was headed the moment it left Ryan Succop’s foot. The home stadium exploded with celebration and the road warriors limped to their locker room in defeat.

And frankly, it wasn’t hard to feel great about what the Cowboys told us about where they stand in 2021.

Let’s go down a partial list:

• I don’t want to get carried away, but I am not sure I have ever seen Dak Prescott look better. Given the circumstances and the opponent, he was spectacular. Yes, there were a few missed opportunities if we wish to grade a 58-attempt performance as strictly as we can, but from a standpoint of standing tall in a pocket that was certainly not made of steel and holding the ball for that last sliver of time so his guy could get open and then delivering strike after strike? He was so good. Tampa Bay loves to blitz and has rattled every QB in that situation, including in that stadium last year, reducing Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes to the worst versions of themselves. For Prescott to face 22 blitzes and shred them repeatedly for three touchdowns and 8.5 yards per attempt was so encouraging that his grading must be next to perfect. Dallas needed its QB1 to stand tall, remain composed and thread needles Thursday while taking a beating. He did all of that. He is the best version of himself and if that doesn’t make you think — in a QB’s league — that Dallas doesn’t ride an extremely fast and capable horse, well, I am not sure what I can tell you other than to watch the game again and see your QB play amazingly in defeat. As we have said in this space a million times, Troy Aikman will tell you his greatest performance was in defeat in San Francisco. Tony Romo will tell you his greatest game was in a defeat at Lambeau. This is a Week 1 game, but I am struggling to remember Prescott ever looking more like “The Man” than Thursday night. And that has to get you fired up for 2021 as a whole.

• I was delighted to see La’el Collins and Tyron Smith playing tackle at what appeared to be a satisfactory level. You probably recall that they combined to play in two games last year (both by a compromised Smith) instead of the 32 you hoped for. The Cowboys pay a lot of money to build their offensive line around two pillars of protection at left and right tackle and to get almost nothing from either in 2020 doomed the season before it started. Even when Prescott was healthy, this circumstance caused the offense to run a reduced playbook because their protection could not hold up. When you cannot count on protection, you cannot use your weapons on the outside to their fullest because they cannot get down the field before the ball has to be thrown. To see them last night play every snap and to never look terribly overmatched, despite stout matchups, is a fantastic development. If they can approach being full-time tackles again, the Cowboys instantly snap back into being a contender.

• The game plan by the offensive minds was perfect. We can speculate how much is Kellen Moore and how much is Mike McCarthy, but they had to go into Tampa and face the best defensive front in the business and do it with inferior pieces at guard-center-guard. To put a plan out there that rolled 451 yards in Tampa in a game that had zero garbage time should receive impressive grades. The Cowboys did not waste possessions establishing the run like it was 1992, but rather mixed their horizontal and vertical attacks while the personnel groupings kept Tampa Bay off balance quite a bit. They found matchups they liked and attacked with play-action, misdirection and pre-snap motions. They did not pound their head into the wall of Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh. We should thank them for that. I was impressed with the offensive strategy and I believe it put them in their best position for success — which is basically the job description of a play-calling staff.

• Finally, the defense found takeaways. The guys who usually get the ball continued to get the ball. DeMarcus Lawrence, Trevon Diggs, Jourdan Lewis and Damontae Kazee have made careers of getting the football and did it again last night. They definitely need more difference-making players throughout the defense but we know this is a work in progress. The idea, for now, is to maximize these opportunities to get stops, if I may roll back into basketball parlance. To get that many takeaways is great and will help compensate (for now) for the inability to get traditional stops through run dominance or pass pressure and coverage. The Cowboys simply cannot do the latter, so they must focus on the former while buying time for the kids to acclimate.

That is a lot of good to take from Thursday and again, if there are 62 potential matchups (31 other teams both home and away), then this one is absolutely on the medal stand for the most difficult of all.

But, yes, it counts in the standings and it might even count in potential playoff tiebreakers. You play to win the game and this one rightfully stings on the airplane home. Dallas thought it did enough again and if the kick misses or one little detail is different, it does win. But it didn’t happen differently and the Cowboys took the same “L” that they would have if they lost by 35. That is the sport and the margin for error.

We have to discuss what led to the defeat. I know there are details everywhere that people want to throw out there, and while I am not the final word on these matters because the game has inches everywhere, these are the few I will take with me.

First, the red-zone inefficiency was the biggest culprit. If you want to know how to take a superstar-laden offense and make it ordinary, it would be to make it super inefficient. This is best done by drive-killing mistakes such as giveaways and holding penalties. The other way that separates the contenders from the pretenders is red-zone performance. You must be at least better than league average in walking away with a touchdown on as many trips inside the 20 as you possibly can. NFL average since 2019 is 59 percent and we know historically it is somewhere around 60 percent.

The best teams in football are well above it: The Titans sit at 75 percent with many other usual suspects above 65 percent, including the Packers, Seahawks, Saints and Buccaneers. These are great offenses that don’t often settle for field goals. In 2020, Dallas sat at 50 percent (tied for 29th) and above only two teams — the Giants and Jets. You certainly don’t want to hang with those teams in offensive categories, especially if you have built what you think is a fantastic offense.

Now, with healthy QB1 and starting tackles, we expect a year above 60 percent, but opening night reminded us that this is easier said than done. The Cowboys went inside the 20 on four occasions and were 1-for-4 overall. They had a touchdown and kicked three field goals while managing to miss one of those. So, of a possible 28 points, they scored a touchdown (missed extra point!) and two field goals for just 12 points.

The one that really smarts was the fantastic drive to start the second half that went the length of the field only to arrive at the 2-yard line and face a third-and-goal. Prescott ran the pitch-option and pitched to Ezekiel Elliott in space and there are only three humans on that side of the field. Two are Cowboys (Elliott and Blake Jarwin) and one is Tampa Bay third-string safety Andrew Adams. The idea is that Jarwin will help get Adams blocked so that Elliott can waltz in because the play design did everything else.

I don’t know how Jarwin didn’t get outside leverage on Adams to wall him off. Instead, he whiffed and Adams went right around him. I also don’t know how Elliott can’t beat one guy in space to the pylon. Not only did he not beat him, but he cut back inside into the help. There was virtually no chance this was getting in and yes, it does call into question the speed as Tony Pollard seems assured of waltzing that one in with his juice. Very disappointing.


To get 12 points is to leave at least 16 on the field. Who thinks you can survive leaving 16 points on the field? It makes you think that after this play failed that the Cowboys should have strongly considered going for it as opposed to settling for a 21-yard field goal. Down 21-16, you see the point of chipping away, but I think you probably need to insist that you are determined to score seven points.

Finally, the last sequence. Dallas has a game-breaking moment when Kazee gets the ball out from Chris Godwin near the goal line. Lewis scoops it up and the Cowboys live to fight another series, down 28-26. They take the ball with 4 minutes, 52 seconds to play and Prescott can end his career night in victory if they can play this right.
This is the NBA playoffs again. It is not a question of scoring, it is a question of scoring too soon. We saw this coming a mile away when Dallas converted a big-time third-and-11 to CeeDee Lamb that beautifully goes 31 yards into field-goal range and forced Tampa Bay to start burning timeouts.

Dallas found itself in the play of the game on third-and-6 from the 30 with 1:43 to go. This is where the game probably got away a bit. With trips left and Cedrick Wilson in the game for a banged-up Michael Gallup, Wilson uncovers at the snap and Prescott misses him right over the middle. This pitch and catch probably gives them the win, assuming Wilson stays in bounds past the sticks, which seems assured. Instead, Prescott waits for something better, nobody is open, and eventually swings a hopeless pass to Elliott. The trouble is that the line did not hold up that long and Connor Williams took a penalty as Vea is trying to win the game by himself. Vea is so big and powerful that nobody was stopping his bullrush late.


But that penalty was a killer and third-and-16 made them scramble to get it back to fourth-and-6 with 1:29 left.

Everyone now simultaneously screams at the game: “You cannot kick here because Tom Brady will beat you with that much time!” This is objectively true, by the way. He would.

Does McCarthy kick or go for it on fourth-and-6 from that spot and only down 2? What do the computers say? They say he made the right choice — even though we kinda knew they were doomed from there. The analytics agreed with him in that situation and spot on the field, you are likely in rough shape either way. But, your best chance is to get the lead and hope Brady trips on himself into a mistake (he nearly had earlier).


Could you imagine going for it there and losing? I have to believe with Greg Zuerlein as your kicker and standing on the 30-yard line, down 28-26, if you don’t take the lead it is compared to the madness of 2020 decision-making. I wanted them to go for it, but you know you probably can’t there and all the win probabilities agreed.
Make the kick and hope for the best. Even though you know the worst was headed your way.

And that is what happened.

Are you like me and feeling pretty great about a team that answered many of its unanswered questions and concerns, or are you like the legions that stack this up with everything since 1996 and just want to rage against the Cowboys machine again because that is what feels right from September to January?

You make the call. I liked what I saw. This team has a real chance to do some nice things.
 
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