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By Bob Sturm 3h ago
We discussed on Monday that this team is certainly much better after five games than the teams that came before it and necessitated massive coaching changes. You may recall that the 2018 team felt like it was on the verge of something pretty special after its playoff win against Seattle and then falling just short in the Los Angeles Coliseum.
In 2019, the Kellen Moore era began in Dallas with a fireworks show that caused people to suggest he would be a head coach in 2020. The first three games were a comical offensive fireworks show with three consecutive double-digit wins. The Cowboys then lost three in a row in embarrassing fashion — lost to a backup QB in New Orleans, lost as a heavy favorite to the Jets – and returned to 3-3. They finished the season 8-8 and mostly the entire coaching staff was fired.
In 2020, the Kellen Moore era hit season No. 2 with a rough and close loss to those same Rams (new stadium!), but would run off the next four games with a total of 146 points scored. They were breaking the NFL. Why were they just 2-3? Turnovers and a comically bad defense. Then the quarterback broke, effectively ending any chance to outscore their defensive problems. The Cowboys finished the year with 11 games that had very little meaningful impact. They finished 6-10 and most of the key defensive coaching staff was fired.
Here we are in 2021. The Kellen Moore era is now in season No. 3. The people are again fully expecting Moore will be a head coach soon and thus are worrying about January problems in October. The Cowboys are an impressive 4-1, but we have seen promising starts lose steam during the long gauntlet of an NFL schedule. Should we feel that this offense — which has scored 170 already — is more “disappointment proof” than those that came before it?
Definitely.
Let’s look at a few things that indicate this 2021 offense is more likely to be standing in the end.
The most impressive indicator is that this offense does not depend on any single thing for success. They hit you with the most basic question when you game plan against Dallas: What is their strength?
The bottom line is: The Cowboys are better than most at running the ball and better than most at passing the ball. They can decide which one will beat you or they can basically allow you to decide that for yourself. You cannot take away both when the Cowboys are playing well. … and frankly, even when they are not.
Here is historical proof. Sunday was the first time since 1983 that the Cowboys pulled off the absurd “300/200” game. That is 300 yards through the air and 200 yards on the ground. For Dallas, it has done that six times in 62 seasons! See below from our friends at ProFootballReference.com:
If that doesn’t impress you, very few things I tell you here will. Tom Landry had his Boys fired up that day to put a beatdown on the Eagles and the offense was clicking on all cylinders. Think of the hundreds and hundreds of games since then and no team had put on a 300/200 game until Sunday when this team did it.
Not too shabby.
But, like I said Monday, the 170 points are nice, but we know last year’s offense had 163 at this point of the year. Since that team never came close to reaching its ceiling, why is this team sent from above to destroy worlds?
The “how” is very important.
Points are points and yards are yards, but there are certain times in every game when the opponent is defending a big lead and is giving you points and yards in exchange for time. Because when time runs out, the game is won and the margin is less important, of course.
The main reason we are impressed with this Cowboys’ offense is that almost none of their production is because an opponent is playing soft to trade stats for time. In other words, the Cowboys have not been behind almost at all.
This chart — prepared by the Dallas Cowboys media department — demonstrates that. It is very handy:
The Buccaneers were ahead quite a bit in Tampa. The game was always in doubt, but the Bucs held the lead. Since then, Dallas has played four consecutive games where it has “bossed” the games by holding a constant lead. This makes a team impossible to defend because it can simply run its base offense and make you get stops. If you can’t get stops, then the deficit gets worse. Through five games, there were 300 total minutes and Dallas was ahead for 172 minutes and tied for 75 more. They only trailed for nearly 53 minutes of 300. Dallas has been ahead 57.5 percent of the time and tied 25.9 percent. The Cowboys have only spent 17.6 percent of the time “chasing” a game, which is about as good as you will see.
Let’s explain why the start last year was fool’s gold.
Those five games had 300 minutes as well. They led for a total of 43, were tied for 52, and trailed the other 205. From a percentage standpoint, they led for 15 percent, were tied for 17 percent and trailed for an absurd 68 percent of those first five games.
When we say the stats were mostly garbage time, that is what we are saying. Even with Dak Prescott healthy last year, the offense was not healthy. It was many fantasy football stats where points are points and yards are yards, but the opponents were bossing the games and Dallas was forced to play catchup where all that glitters is certainly not gold.
What was trailing 68 percent of the time in those games is now trailing just 18 percent.
And that is how you know Dallas is very, very powerful.
As you see from Sunday’s data, this game is about a Cowboys team winning easily, scoring 44, racking up 500 yards, and not really having their “A” game. We can talk about the Giants’ offensive pieces not being available with injuries, but that has very little to do with Dallas putting drive after drive together.
Could the Cowboys have been better? Absolutely. Multiple giveaway games are never good and sub 50 percent in the red zone will often get you beat.
But, again, not if you have that many impressive drives. If you can drive the ball nine times at least 30 yards and 9 of 10 drives end in enemy territory, you are not going to lose many games.
Next Gen throw chart: Dak Prescott
Prescott had his normal game of pushing the ball down the field. It is hilarious that he once was given the “bus driver” label by so many — locally and nationally — because they were nitpicking a young and developing kid. Now that he sees the game as he does, he goes down the field whenever he wants and it seems that he can sometimes name his score.
It will be great to see this on the road, but I imagine the Cowboys will make sure they are not naive in Foxboro. They will be more careful because very little comes easy in some of these road tests awaiting. We know this coaching staff is much more willing to take the game to the opponents, but you can bet they will modify the risk/reward balance just a bit.
The crazy thing, of course, is that Michael Gallup can still make this passing game more lethal. There will be games when some opponents — New England and Minnesota could both qualify — decide to make running the ball very difficult. In these games, it will be important to have a layered passing game that becomes difficult to contain and features protection to allow Prescott the time to push the ball.
For now, those tests have not emerged much since Week 1.
Ezekiel Elliott Next Gen chart
Many of you noticed the trend continuing where Dallas is running right over and over again.
Some weeks we wonder if that is to attack a certain part of the defense. Some teams will attack a coverage corner who hates to tackle or an undersized pass rusher who may not be able to hold up against power runs. Dallas has made a point to run behind Zack Martin and young Terence Steele. Steele has gone from a huge weak spot to a strength this year when running the ball and perhaps another piece of evidence that this coaching staff knows what he is doing. People wanted Mike McCarthy fired for being stubborn with Steele last year, but we should review his track record with young, unproven offensive linemen. Green Bay consistently found guys without spending top picks on them and it was because they weren’t pulled due to a bad game or a rough debut. If you invest and show confidence in developmental players, sometimes, they develop.
Steele is making impressive strides.
Look at the Next Gen stats by runner. First, Ezekiel Elliott by direction:
That is 15 carries for 105 yards to the right and six carries for five yards to the left.
Now, let’s check Tony Pollard:
Pollard had nine carries for 52 yards to the right and five carries for 23 yards to the left.
Dallas appears to have a trend and you can expose that — opponents will fortify one side and that is when you can attack the other side.
On Monday we detailed Prescott’s four big-time throws against the Giants — you know about those beauties to CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. If not, there is always the banana stand to see plenty of each.
But, let’s go in a different direction for the film study. Let’s look at two of the nicer designs from Moore and this offense:
Film study
3Q – 7:17 – second-and-goal from the New York 4-yard line – Prescott to Elliott for 4-yard touchdown
This was beautiful.
This looks to be a play that will use Pollard as the eye-candy and Prescott can use him if he senses the Giants aren’t respecting his jet-sweep action. The main read here is Lamb on the slant. Almost exactly what they do on the RPO, if Prescott sees anyone asleep on that, it is the first option. Lamb to the post.
The fake pitch to Elliott has not gotten everyone to run to Elliott, which would free up Lamb. Instead, the Giants are all going to cover Lamb in a somewhat comical over-reaction to being sure this is how they are being manipulated.
Because Pollard and Lamb were on the defense’s minds, the Giants just release Elliott off by his lonesome, and he struts in before anyone can come close to him.
Here it is on Next Gen player tracking:
We are positive there is more action off that with Noah Brown (85) on the left.
4Q – 10:32 – first-and-10 from Dallas 17 – Cedrick Wilson to Noah Brown for 22 yards
I have joked over the years about how much they want Wilson and his arm in their game plans. He is always the guy on trick plays and special teams ideas that require a throw.
Some have famously worked poorly (shoutout to Thanksgiving, 2020), but it certainly is a club in the bag that must be respected and acknowledged or you have situations like this one.
This is not a jet-sweep motion, but rather an orbit motion which is a half-circle around the quarterback. It gives Wilson space to receive the ball and deliver a throw before the defense figures out he isn’t a runner, but rather a second passer. It also makes sure Prescott delivers a lateral and doesn’t risk anything forward.
You can practically see the Giants feeling like they are fine and wondering what the Cowboys are thinking here. The Giants seem to be thinking they have the play well-defended with their posture. Why those receivers are running so hard?
It is at that moment Wilson reaches for the laces that the Giants collectively yell an expletive. Xavier McKinney (29) actually falls down between Brown and Lamb. Logan Ryan (23) knows he is beaten and races back.
The only problem here, of course, is that Wilson threw it to Brown and Lamb was an easy 83-yard touchdown because nobody is close to him.
Here is the Next Gen where it looks like the chip didn’t realize Brown caught the ball. He did, for a 22-yard gain, but this had a much better possibility on it.
You can bet teams will be preparing for that possibility for later in the season.
For now, we look forward to what Bill Belichick will plan to slow down this offense. He is famous for figuring out how to cause distress and if I am the Cowboys — or someone who studies them — I look forward to this exciting challenge. It is a mid-term exam that will be most interesting.
Until then, we see nothing but good things so far from this offense.
