Brugler: Pre-Combine NFL Draft Rankings - Bosa, Allen headline first-round heavy pass rush class

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By Dane Brugler Feb 13, 2019

In​ last​ year’s NFL Draft,​ quarterbacks (football’s most important position)​ dominated the top half of the first round.

In this​​ year’s draft, edge rushers (football’s second-most important position) will dominate the top half of the first round.

Although trades will likely shake things up, there is a plausible scenario where three of the top five picks are edge rushers with several others receiving consideration in the top 15 selections. Regardless of who is on the roster, all 32 teams are searching for added pass-rush depth and several teams will find that early in the first round.

These rankings are based on tape study and all-star games and will be updated and expanded after the scouting combine (along with testing numbers and round projection). The number in parentheses after each prospect’s date of birth is his age (to the nearest hundredth) on draft day. [h=3]1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State (6-4, 265, 4.67)[/h] [h=4]Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (St. Thomas Aquinas), Junior, 10/23/1997 (age 21.52)[/h]
Strengths: Launches low and balanced out of his stance … gains considerable ground with first step, immediately putting blockers on their heels … enough bend to run the hoop … coordinated weight transfer with his loose hips and lateral quicks … diverse, well-timed hand tactics … aggressive rush attack, but more importantly there is nuance to his hand sequence … outstanding play violence to work his way through bodies … heavy hands to stack and set the edge vs. power … matured, limber body type … tough-minded and has no trouble doing the dirty work … close-knit football bloodlines, and an NFL locker room will be a natural fit for his personality … productive when on the field with 29.0 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks in 30 career games.

Weaknesses: Prefers to use forward lean mid-rush, occasionally ending up on the ground … lacks sudden redirection skills outside of his pass rush and can be a tick late reacting to backfield misdirection … not a bully in the run game and tight ends can catch him off guard, putting him on his back … troubling injury history as he tried to push through groin and abdomen issues the first three games of 2018 before aggravating those injuries vs. TCU (September 2018), requiring season-ending bilateral abdominal surgery; he suffered a “slight ACL tear” in his right knee (November 2015) as a senior in high school and required surgery, which prematurely ended his high school career.

Summary: A two-year starter at Ohio State, Bosa rushed off the left and right edges in the Buckeyes’ four-man front where he was coached by revered defensive line coach Larry Johnson. After an All-American sophomore season, he entered the 2018 season as the No. 1 draft-eligible player in college football but underwent surgery in September for his groin and abdominal injury (he was expected to recover by early December but elected to leave the team and work toward the NFL). Durability is the main concern for his NFL projection, but when on the field, Bosa uses proper biomechanics to maximize his body force and convert speed to power as a rusher. The opportunity to watch and learn from his Pro Bowl older brother accelerated his development, projecting as an immediate NFL starter. Overall, Bosa is a carbon copy of Joey Bosa with his blend of athleticism, technique and punctual hands, defeating blocks in a variety of ways. He is the No. 1 player in the 2019 NFL Draft. [h=3]2. Josh Allen, Kentucky (6-4, 262, 4.68)[/h] [h=4]Montclair, N.J. (Montclair), Senior, 7/13/1997 (age 21.80)[/h]
Strengths: Excellent first step to win the corner with a simple speed rush … expanded his pass rush repertoire each season at Kentucky … long-armed frame with a large wingspan and developed muscle tone (added 50-plus pounds since arriving at Kentucky, including 15-plus pounds between his junior and senior seasons) … forces holding penalties with his ability to work through the shoulder of blockers … plays with closing burst to close the gap in pursuit … stays stride for stride with backs and tight ends in coverage … intelligent, alert player to see plays develop pre-snap … voted a team captain in 2018 … performance doesn’t fall off late in games (13 of his 17 sacks in 2018 came in the second half) … holds the school records for sacks in a single season (17.0) and career (31.5) – his career sack total ranks ninth best in SEC history, just a half sack behind Reggie White (32) … his 11 career forced fumbles is tied with Danny Trevathan for the school record.

Weaknesses: Not heavy-handed at the point of attack … late to disengage from offensive linemen once locked up … pass rush moves tend to be predictable based on situation … plays loose but lacks twitch when quickly changing direction … needs to improve his contain responsibilities vs. the run … better cover athleticism than cover instincts, especially with his back to the ball.

Summary: A three-year starter at Kentucky, Allen was a hybrid outside linebacker in the Wildcats’ 3-4 base, lining up off the edge (boundary and field) and over inside receivers in the slot. After his junior year, he was considered a potential top-100 draft pick, but he returned for his senior season and improved physically and technically, which resulted in one of the best individual seasons in Kentucky history – the 2018 hire of outside linebacker coach Brad White, who spent the previous six seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, also aided Allen’s development. Although not an overpowering power rusher, Allen showed improved play strength and added to his pass-rush tool box on his senior tape, consistently forcing the quarterback to speed up his process. As a cover defender, he has the smooth hips and play speed to cover a lot of ground, but needs to improve his ball awareness to be more reliable in man coverage. Overall, Allen transformed himself from a versatile athlete into a polished pass rusher who fits best in a 3-4 scheme where he can make plays upfield or when dropping in space, projecting as an immediate NFL starter with Pro Bowl potential. [h=3]3. Rashan Gary, Michigan (6-5, 285, 4.68)[/h] [h=4]Plainfield, N.J. (Paramus Catholic), Junior, 12/3/1997 (age 21.41)[/h]
Strengths: Gifted athlete for his size … flashes the explosive quickness and light feet of a much smaller player … flexible body type with oily hips to smoothly change direction … rare range … plays with low, balanced pad level … wins the corner with powerful strides … violent hands and effective long-arm move … physical edge setter … uses his length to lock out, shed and pursue … accustomed to dealing with chips, double teams and extra attention … improved discipline to stay home and read the quarterback … competes with urgency … wants to be a leader and not shy joking around or pushing teammates.

Weaknesses: Undeveloped pass-rush plan and doesn’t set up his moves … hand placement lacks refinement, spending too much time hand fighting … streaky snap timing … duck-footed gait and too easily tripped up … needs to lose some baby fat … NFL scouts have concerns about his emotional maturity … inconsistent finisher with below-average college production … suffered several minor injuries his first two seasons in Ann Arbor; injured his right shoulder prior to the 2018 season and tried to play through it, missing three games (October 2018).

Summary: A two-year starter at Michigan, Gary was exclusively a hand-on-the-ground edge rusher in the Wolverines’ four-man front, occasionally lining up over or inside the tackle. His talent was clear the moment he stepped foot in Ann Arbor, but his production and body of work didn’t match the hype – eight pass rushers in the 2019 NFL Draft class had more sacks in 2018 than Gary had his entire career (10.5). He is the poster prospect for the “traits over production” scouting motto with his freakish athletic skill and overall upside. He currently lacks an efficient move-to-move transition and I often found myself yelling “finish!” at the screen while studying his tape. Overall, Gary is a high-risk, high-reward prospect because he has rare athletic talent and natural power for his size, but showed mediocre development as a collegian with lingering questions about his durability. [h=3]4. Clelin Ferrell, Clemson (6-4, 263, 4.78)[/h] [h=4]Richmond, Va. (Benedictine), RS Junior, 5/17/1997 (age 21.95)[/h]
Strengths: Good-looking on the hoof with long arms … advanced hand use, displaying strong rip, chop and swipe moves … understands depth and how to create rush lanes for himself … lower and upper body mechanics stay on the same page … effective spin and sets up inside moves … times up the snap well … uses his length to set a hard edge and stay clean … holds his ground vs. power … disciplined eyes to read/track the football, staying away from mistakes … keeps his head on a swivel and anticipates angle blocks … consistent effort and plays through the whistle, making opposite hash stops … named a 2018 team captain … called a “humble worker” by his coaches … started more games (44) than any other pass rusher in Clemson history, passing Levon Kirkland (43).

Weaknesses: Not naturally twitchy or explosive in his get-off … only average bend and cornering skills, causing his rush to stall … thrives on jumping the snap, which will lead to offside penalties … can be squeezed out of gaps by power … lost outside contain more times than expected on tape … didn’t miss time the last three seasons, but didn’t play his senior year in high school with a torn ACL in his right knee (August 2014), which also forced him to redshirt in 2015.

Summary: A three-year starter at Clemson, Ferrell earned a starting role as a redshirt freshman and helped fill the shoes of Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd, lining up primarily at right defensive end in the Tigers’ four-man base. He had outstanding production the last three years and ranks tied for fourth best in school history with 27.0 career sacks. Ferrell is a much better NFL prospect than Lawson or Dodd because of his advanced hand tactics and awareness to see plays develop and set up his pass rush sequence. Similar to Preston Smith, he isn’t ultra-twitchy and won’t capture the corner on speed alone, but he has terrific contact balance and power to work off blocks. Overall, Ferrell has only average athleticism for his size, but his mix of power, handwork and recognition skills lead to production, projecting best as a hand-on-the-ground rusher in a 4-3 base. [h=3]5. Jachai Polite, Florida (6-2, 242, 4.63)[/h] [h=4]Daytona Beach, Fla. (Mainland), Junior, 3/30/1998 (age 21.08)[/h]
Strengths: Elite first step and hits top speed immediately … explosive closing burst … covers a lot of ground and competes with a revving motor … fluid ankle flexion and dip to run the hoop … uses his explosive upper body (length and hands) to stun and maintain spacing with blockers … expanded his bag of tricks as a pass rusher, including an efficient spin and effective long arm … nice job retracing his steps and chasing from the backside … matured play recognition to sniff out screens and string out runs … knack for punching the ball out, becoming the fourth player in Florida history with at least eight career forced fumbles (FBS-best six forced fumbles in 2018) … comfortable spot dropping and playing in space … nonstop hustler and makes plays away from the line of scrimmage … improved his conditioning and work ethic as an upperclassman, dropping 25-30 pounds prior to the 2018 season.

Weaknesses: Lacks ideal body mass and bulk for a down lineman…can be moved in the run game and has base strength concerns … spends too much time hung up on blocks when his momentum is slowed needs to protect his lower body and stay on his feet … bad habit of finding himself wide or past the pocket … wasn’t an every-down defender in college … weight and conditioning require monitoring to keep him at his best…multiple NFL scouts have expressed concern regarding his personal character.

Summary: A part-time starter at Florida, Polite was a 270-pound defensive tackle as a true freshman before slimming down under Gators new strength and conditioning coach Nick Savage, dropping 25 pounds to fit Todd Grantham’s hybrid 3-4 scheme in 2018. Although not an early-down player, he was highly productive as a subpackage “BUCK” edge rusher, leading the Gators in defensive stops on third down (13) and joined Kentucky’s Josh Allen as the only FBS players with 10-plus sacks and 5-plus forced fumbles. In the NFL, explosive players are at a premium because of the importance of the first and last steps, making Polite an attractive prospect with his instant speed and closing burst to finish at the quarterback. However, he is more than just speed, showing a variety of moves and an understanding of counter measures. Overall, Polite needs to improve as a run defender and prove he is trustworthy as an any-down player, but he is a quarterback assassin with his combination of first-step quickness, motor and finishing skills, projecting best as a standup rusher in a 3-4 scheme. [h=3]6. Brian Burns, Florida State (6-4, 238, 4.69)[/h] [h=4]Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (American Heritage), Junior, 4/23/1998 (age 21.02)[/h]
Strengths: Twitchy get-off and lateral movements … runs the arc with speed … natural body control to capture the corner and flatten to the quarterback … angular body type with long arms to stab or club-rip blockers … plays with bend and skillfully regains his balance mid-rush … able to change directions with little wasted movement … displays the foot agility and long strides to cover ground and play in space … uses his length to find passing lanes … blocked three kicks over his career … voted a team captain in 2018 and his FSU coaches call him a “humble hustler” who gives “consistent effort” in practice … started every game the past two seasons and played through injuries … his 24.0 career sacks ranks fifth in school history.

Weaknesses: Lanky limbed athlete and lacks ideal bulk on his frame … questionable max weight … not a power player and can be controlled on the edge (see 2018 Northern Illinois tape) … leaves his chest open and his hand/punch timing requires refinement … hands tend to wander, lacking disciplined counters … prefers to run the arc and needs to develop his inside moves … not much of a talker and is developing his leadership skills.

Summary: A two-year starter at Florida State, Burns lined up primarily with his hand on the ground at field defensive end for the Seminoles. Despite a disappointing 5-7 record in 2018, which snapped FSU’s 36-year bowl-eligible streak, he stayed motivated and set career bests in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks as a junior. Burns is a loose-jointed athlete with above-average speed off the edge, also showing the agility to drop in space or defend the run. He flashes a variety of pass-rush moves, but tends to be over-reliant on his athleticism and needs to develop his timing and setup skills. Overall, Burns needs to continue to get stronger and sharpen his tool set, but his first step explosion, athletic flexibility and baseline understanding of how to use his length/hands are a recipe for an impact NFL pass rusher, regardless of scheme. [h=3]7. Montez Sweat, Mississippi State (6-6, 252, 4.74)[/h] [h=4]Stone Mountain, Ga. (Copiah-Lincoln), RS Senior, 9/4/1996 (age 22.65)[/h]
Strengths: NFL frame and length … light-footed out of his stance with long strides to quickly eat up grass … core flexibility to lean and maintain his balance … forceful long arm and introduces various inside/outside moves to keep blockers guessing … improved run awareness and play identification … able to retrace and find the ball … efficient changing directions when tracking the run … comfortable on his feet, dropping in space and covering ground with his long strides … effort sustains all four quarters … reached double-digit sacks in both of his seasons in the SEC.

Weaknesses: Lean-muscled and lacks ideal bulk on his limbs … questionable growth potential … stiff turning the corner and lacks bend at the top of his rush … needs to play stronger and develop bully tendencies to power through blocks … too often finds himself upfield past the quarterback … flashes pop, but initial hand work still in the development phase … plays tall and rigid once engaged … doesn’t have a great feel in coverage … mysteriously didn’t have any pass knock downs despite his length … background requires careful vetting after he spent the majority of his two-year tenure at Michigan State in the coach’s doghouse.

Summary: A two-year starter at Mississippi State, Sweat rushed from a two- and three-point stance as the field defensive end in the Bulldogs’ four-man front. Since the start of 2017, his 22 sacks are the second most by any power-five player during that span (behind Josh Allen), forming a dominant defensive line duo with Jeffery Simmons (they combined for 58.5 tackles for loss the last two seasons). Sweat wins with first-step burst and humongous wingspan, although there is room for better efficiency in his pass-rush sequence. Overall, Sweat has average play strength and some stiffness in his rush, but he maximizes his length, both his arms and strides, to consistently threaten blockers off the edge, projecting as an NFL starter in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. [h=3]8. Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech (6-4, 256, 4.74)[/h] [h=4]St. Francisville, La. (West Feliciana), RS Senior, 12/14/1995 (age 23.38)[/h]
Strengths: NFL framework and length … converts speed to power with his initial quickness off the snap … uses his long arms and low-pad level to extend into blockers and create movement … heavy-handed and forces his way through bodies … flashes short-area quickness to skim the corner and close on the quarterback … high-effort rusher … grip strength to set a physical edge in the run game … reliable wrapup tackler who usually finishes one-on-one opportunities … graduated with his bachelor’s degree (December 2018), becoming the first in his family to earn a college degree … elite production with an NCAA-record 45.0 career sacks … led the FBS with 17.5 sacks in 2018, which set a school and conference single-season record.

Weaknesses: Doesn’t have a rocked-up build … hip tightness shows when attempting to dip and bend … needs to develop better secondary and counter measures when the first move doesn’t work … inconsistent pass-rush sequence … not a technician at the point of attack and leaves some production on the field as a run defender … doesn’t show the same intensity vs. the run as he does vs. the pass … his Combine invite was rescinded after a background check revealed a simple battery charge his freshman year.

Summary: A four-year starter at Louisiana Tech, Ferguson rushed from a two- and three-point stance in the Bulldogs’ four-man front, lining up at field defensive end, but also moving inside on passing downs. He entered his senior season needing 17.5 sacks to pass Terrell Suggs as the No. 1 sack artist in FBS history and that is exactly what he accomplished, recording 2.5 sacks in his final collegiate game. Ferguson strikes with power and pad level, using his reach, physical hands and bully mentality to jar blockers off balance. He needs to clean up some technique issues as a run defender, but he locks out and sees through blocks to shed and pursue. Overall, Ferguson isn’t a top-tier athlete, but he is a violent speed-to-power rusher with impressive production, projecting as a starting scheme-diverse pass rusher in the NFL. [h=3]9. D’Andre Walker, Georgia (6-2, 246, 4.72)[/h] [h=4]Fairburn, Ga. (Langston Hughes), Senior, 1/23/1997 (age 22.27)[/h]
Strengths: Gains ground with his first step … speed to reach the edge and wrap the corner … flexible rusher with low pad level and natural balance to work off contact … flexible ankles to skim, stunt and loop, helping open pass-rush lanes … determined chaser from the backside … power to go through RB blocks like a bullet through paper … budding recognition skills to adjust mid-rush … comfortable dropping in zones to cover digs and crossers … extensive experience on special teams coverages … gives unquestioned effort and football is important to him (Georgia head coach Kirby Smart: “He’s a very motivated kid. He plays so hard”).

Weaknesses: Spotty counter measures … pass-rush arsenal lacks variety … needs to develop a power move and better use his length … not a technician at the point of attack … relies on effort more than instincts in his drops … doesn’t show route anticipation … overaggressive tendencies lead to discipline issues and flags (personal fouls, offsides, etc.) … missed the bowl game and Senior Bowl due to a groin injury (December 2018) … only one season of starting experience.

Summary: A one-year starter at Georgia, Walker transitioned well from pass-rush specialist as a junior to every-down senior starter as the “JACK” linebacker in Mel Tucker’s 3-4 base. Although not quite as physically gifted as past Georgia “JACK” rushers like Leonard Floyd or Lorenzo Carter, he improved each season and produced at a higher clip. Walker is still piecing together his timing and technique, but his effort and impact make him an easy player to like on film. Overall, Walker has a toned, flexible frame with the balanced athleticism and competitive makeup to drop, rush the passer or set the edge vs. the run, projecting as a high upside edge rusher in a 3-4 scheme. [h=3]10. Oshane Ximines, Old Dominion (6-3, 241, 4.71)[/h] [h=4]Ahoskie, N.C. (Hertford County), RS Senior, 12/7/1995 (age 23.40)[/h]
Strengths: Flexible edge athleticism with first-step burst and active hands … stride acceleration to close once he wraps the corner … quick feet to slip through creases on the line of scrimmage … uses bend and long-armed extension to create movement … smooth hips to cleanly redirect in space … knack for punching the ball out with 11 forced fumbles the last three seasons … outstanding career production … his teammates glow about his work ethic and vocal leadership (organized a players-only meeting days before the 2018 upset of Virginia Tech).

Weaknesses: Cut-up body type, but looks more like a linebacker than edge rusher … average-at-best play strength … struggles to disengage once blockers latch onto his frame … violent hands, but his move-to-move transition requires refinement … inconsistent edge setter and not a technician at the point of attack … wasn’t asked to drop or cover in college.

Summary: A four-year starter at Old Dominion, Ximines played the “Stud” pass rusher position in the Monarchs’ four-man front, rushing with his hand on the ground, standing up on the edge or floating over the A-gap. He owns the school records for career sacks (33.0), tackles for loss (51.5) and forced fumbles (11) and will likely be the first Old Dominion player selected in the NFL Draft. Ximines has the edge athleticism to wrap the corner and wreak havoc, showcasing a sophisticated approach to his rush. He is an inconsistent run defender, mostly due to his undersized frame, and was strictly an upfield player in college, lacking experience dropping in space. Overall, Ximines is a speed-based pass rusher with tweener size and play strength, displaying the active hands and motor to be a nickel rusher as a rookie before competing for starting reps.
 
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