Broncos Stuff...
- Thread starter Cotton
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BISP
ZeroClub
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Yes, but mainly because of the pass rushers one faces (less true today) and that the stakes are higher (protecting blind-side of right-handed QB).
I imagine that switching sides as an OT is in some ways is similar to us driving on the opposite side of the road. Driving a car under U.K. rules takes time to feel natural ... shifting the manual transmission with your left hand, acclimating to the extra width of the car (passenger side) being on your left, looking upper left for your rearview mirror, the angle of the rearview mirror being opposite, etc. Going through a traffic circle, in traffic, clockwise, requires extra attention. Do it enough, though, and your brain just flips with it and it feels natural.
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Imagine Denver's surprise when it's really Ty Nshitty at LT.
Chocolate Lab
Mere Commoner
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Yeah, why in the world did Dak say that? That's Jerry's job.
(Seriously though, why give out that info)
(Seriously though, why give out that info)
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
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I can do it with both...
ZeroClub
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I wonder how many zoners are going to try that today.
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Dallas free agents to be and the Broncos come calling: Cowboys pregame riffing
By Bob Sturm 44m ago
One-hundred eight days since the Dallas Cowboys training camp held its first full practice in Oxnard, Calif.; 99 days until Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, Calif.; and just two more days until the noon CT Sunday start at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, against the Denver Broncos …
This game is not the most interesting game on the schedule. Not even close. So if I am going to tell you when games are very interesting, then I better preserve a few weeks where I don’t try to pull your leg.
Dallas should win this game — and win it pretty easily. Denver is not very good and it is also pretty beat up. Plus, the Broncos just traded their biggest franchise star in Von Miller. Their coach has been a leading candidate to not see the holidays on duty, despite being a well-loved football lifer who everyone wants to succeed.
Let’s wait to pick it apart below.
But first, since I have a small subsection of my week allowed for actual “riffing” which is defined as, “perform a monologue or spoken improvisation on a particular subject” …
Here is the topic in my email:
Bob, Can you go over the Cowboys free agents this spring and perhaps list the 5-10 most important names and situations?
Sure. Let’s do it.
Here – according to Spotrac.com, is the Cowboys’ free-agent class. They have 21 UFAs on their roster:
The blue arrows are the 10 most interesting cases that we have to consider and the names I would say survive the first cut. That doesn’t mean the other players are useless, but we cannot prioritize everything. We will only have interest in the other names if they find no market.
These players make the first cut:
Keanu Neal
Leighton Vander Esch
Cedrick Wilson
Connor Williams
Damontae Kazee
Jayron Kearse
Randy Gregory
Malik Hooker
Michael Gallup
Dalton Schultz.
These are the 10 best players on the list and the Cowboys’ most valuable pieces. I took those 10 and then the question is: Which five do I keep with what little cap room I have to do deals?
Here they are in any particular order except No 1.
1. Edge Randy Gregory: This is the best player on the list at the position most in need. I don’t know the cost and I certainly don’t know how they find the cash. I also don’t know if he provides any sort of financial discount (or repellent to other bidders), but if I take the 21 names and list the one that has to stay, it is Gregory and I don’t think the competition is close.
2. Safety Jayron Kearse: Kearse is now the signal caller on the defense, a splash-play leader, a total snaps team leader and an overall amazing diamond that was found in seat cushions. Of all of the safeties who are up for free agency, this is the one I want to keep for now.
3. WR Cedrick Wilson: Look, Michael Gallup is too expensive — even if he did cost himself a bunch by missing half the season. He is going elsewhere. But if we have found anything out, it is that Wilson is very capable of being someone’s No. 3. I prefer it to be here.
4. TE Dalton Schultz: This is your best tight end. That might not impress you and maybe you want to look to draft a better one, but for now, he run blocks, pass protects and catches the ball. I keep him if I can do it at a doable price. Trouble is, that might not be possible.
5. LB Leighton Vander Esch/Keanu Neal: I am cheating here because it will be one of these two. One stays and one goes and it might be based on which one finishes the year better. But remember, that could make him too expensive. Maybe it will be which one I can afford. I will have to figure out if I want the coverage player or the run stopper. Let’s keep studying these two.
Now, the issue is the Cowboys are far above the cap and many of the huge-priced players have money that is already guaranteed for future years. For instance, DeMarcus Lawrence has a huge number in 2022 and 2023, but you have moved his money so much that releasing him or considering it hardly makes any sense. The Cowboys will need to be creative this spring and they should really consider being careful with pushing money for players over 30.
It is a long way away, but some names to consider. Now, let’s dive into this game.
When the Cowboys have the ball
We know what a Vic Fangio defense is going to do. We know it will bring lots of pressure and then even more on third down. Make no mistake, this is often a “challenge you” defense that wants to make you uncomfortable. Denver calls the second-most blitzes in the NFL. They blitz coming off the bus. They lead the NFL in second-down blitzes and they lead the NFL in third-down blitzes.
Do they still? You see, a quick scan of their defensive personnel from a season preview piece would feature the unreal edge combination of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Miller is now with the Rams and Chubb had foot surgery and is out.
Our projections (subject to change) of Cowboys in 11 personnel vs. the Broncos in nickel.
But the linebackers were AJ Johnson and Josey Jewell. How are they doing?
They both are out for the season with torn pectoral muscles.
OK, but the slot corner Fangio has always loved in Chicago and Denver who can blitz and cause problems is probably picking up the slack, right?
No. He just hurt his knee and was placed on the IR, too.
The Broncos’ defense is a shell of itself. That probably explains why the Broncos roll in here with very nice defensive statistics, but have also lost four of their past five. They just aren’t the defense you might think after looking at our weekly league rankings portrait:
In no way do we underestimate an opponent in this situation, because Denver still has a reasonable secondary and an opportunistic defense. Also, as blitzing goes, you just need one or two ambush plays to turn the entire game. But, if Dallas gets its protection calls correct, it should be able to have its way with a team that is depleted and throwing out experimental linebacker combinations trying to hit on anything to fuel the final half of a season that has turned to mush rather quickly.
If I am Kellen Moore and this offense, I think this is a wonderful opportunity to get back into rhythm with an offense that has been figuring it out on the fly since the New England game. That and whether La’el Collins is a right tackle or left tackle and Terence Steele at the opposite — the Cowboys are playing a small stretch here without Tyron Smith because they want him fully right for the stretch drive. Luckily, they can have the confidence that they can survive without him if he isn’t fit rather than asking him to figure out a way to limp out there because they have no other choices. This organization is a threat to the Lombardi Trophy because it has choices at many spots on the roster.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Dak Prescott vs. Justin Simmons
If there is a premium player in the Denver defense, it is safety Justin Simmons. Most football fans may not be terribly familiar with his overall work, but he is a legitimate difference-maker. He was the highest-graded safety by PFF in 2020 and played every single snap from 2018 until now. He is an interchangeable safety with good toughness and has capable-enough athleticism. At times, he looks aggressive and can handle coverage, but also can fill down in the box with some authority and plays downhill well. Pretty intelligent overall on the backend which is what everyone is looking for in a safety. He is paid a lot now (four years, $61 million), but also does a lot. Since entering the league, Simmons has the second-most interceptions of any safety (Kevin Byard) and the most of any safety on third down. When the Broncos send pressure, Prescott better know that Simmons is lurking in the secondary to jump what he guesses is Prescott’s most likely idea.
When the Broncos have the ball
The frustration in Denver with this offense is very high at the moment. They want to blame Pat Shurmur for an underperforming offense and it is probably fair. But, the Broncos haven’t had a strong offense in years and they have had it. Surely, a few months where many in their media bought the Aaron Rodgers storyline did not help the angst.
Regardless, they have a very ordinary offensive line and quarterback trying to produce with very impressive skill position players. Anytime this happens, we see massive amounts of frustration thrown in every direction. Look at the rankings. You would think with this many ideal names at the “fantasy football” production position, you would not be ranked where they are:
That is very bad. And those critical spots of third down and red zone are the worst spots of all. They are down where the teams that don’t have quality players at those skill position spots reside. Not good at all and I can see why Shurmur is under attack.
The issue that sits in the middle of the room is that Teddy Bridgewater is poor. He is good enough to remain a starting idea in this league but not good enough to emerge as anything to get too excited about. Since Week 5, he leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays, yet his big-time throws are 22nd. Nobody has a negative split that badly over the previous five weeks and it is a result of not being able to balance the risk and reward. This has often been the case with Bridgewater offenses. He is a safe QB who takes the short throws, but makes the mistakes of a gunslinger. You cannot have this, of course, but it seems teams miss this too often.
If we are going to check the ball down and not stress defenses, then we better not throw it into coverage. It actually doesn’t make much sense. If I want a guy who is going to do things that he does — the Las Vegas game is enough to make you lose your mind watching him play — then at least give me the big-time moments that should go with it.
Sticking with Bridgewater tells you that the Broncos are done with Drew Lock. That follows being done with Joe Flacco, done with Case Keenum, done with Trevor Siemian, done with Paxton Lynch, and so on.
You can understand better why they want to go get Rodgers now, but it usually doesn’t work that way. John Elway has had one job since Peyton Manning and it is possible you could fail more at it than he has at finding the next QB1, but not by too much.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Courtland Sutton vs. Dallas’ man coverage
We did this last week and wonder if Dallas is interested in keeping its man coverage pace up against teams with legit outside threats. It seems that Sutton is going to be a huge free-agent catch this offseason, but the one place the Broncos can consistently beat you — and look to do so — is on go routes when they move the safety and expose a corner one-on-one. We know that Trevon Diggs is eager to make plays, but Sutton provides one of the tougher matchups down the sideline that you will encounter. Be advised. Bridgewater’s biggest throws this season have been these against man coverage. Sutton is a beast who is fully fit again after missing 2020 with an ACL.
The pick: Dallas 31, Denver 13
I may live to regret this one, but I don’t see these two teams on similar levels by any stretch. Denver is running into a team that feels great about itself and is playing downhill. Dallas is running into a team that can see that the end is near.
And we are only in Week 9.
By Bob Sturm 44m ago
One-hundred eight days since the Dallas Cowboys training camp held its first full practice in Oxnard, Calif.; 99 days until Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, Calif.; and just two more days until the noon CT Sunday start at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, against the Denver Broncos …
This game is not the most interesting game on the schedule. Not even close. So if I am going to tell you when games are very interesting, then I better preserve a few weeks where I don’t try to pull your leg.
Dallas should win this game — and win it pretty easily. Denver is not very good and it is also pretty beat up. Plus, the Broncos just traded their biggest franchise star in Von Miller. Their coach has been a leading candidate to not see the holidays on duty, despite being a well-loved football lifer who everyone wants to succeed.
Let’s wait to pick it apart below.
But first, since I have a small subsection of my week allowed for actual “riffing” which is defined as, “perform a monologue or spoken improvisation on a particular subject” …
Here is the topic in my email:
Bob, Can you go over the Cowboys free agents this spring and perhaps list the 5-10 most important names and situations?
Sure. Let’s do it.
Here – according to Spotrac.com, is the Cowboys’ free-agent class. They have 21 UFAs on their roster:
The blue arrows are the 10 most interesting cases that we have to consider and the names I would say survive the first cut. That doesn’t mean the other players are useless, but we cannot prioritize everything. We will only have interest in the other names if they find no market.
These players make the first cut:
Keanu Neal
Leighton Vander Esch
Cedrick Wilson
Connor Williams
Damontae Kazee
Jayron Kearse
Randy Gregory
Malik Hooker
Michael Gallup
Dalton Schultz.
These are the 10 best players on the list and the Cowboys’ most valuable pieces. I took those 10 and then the question is: Which five do I keep with what little cap room I have to do deals?
Here they are in any particular order except No 1.
1. Edge Randy Gregory: This is the best player on the list at the position most in need. I don’t know the cost and I certainly don’t know how they find the cash. I also don’t know if he provides any sort of financial discount (or repellent to other bidders), but if I take the 21 names and list the one that has to stay, it is Gregory and I don’t think the competition is close.
2. Safety Jayron Kearse: Kearse is now the signal caller on the defense, a splash-play leader, a total snaps team leader and an overall amazing diamond that was found in seat cushions. Of all of the safeties who are up for free agency, this is the one I want to keep for now.
3. WR Cedrick Wilson: Look, Michael Gallup is too expensive — even if he did cost himself a bunch by missing half the season. He is going elsewhere. But if we have found anything out, it is that Wilson is very capable of being someone’s No. 3. I prefer it to be here.
4. TE Dalton Schultz: This is your best tight end. That might not impress you and maybe you want to look to draft a better one, but for now, he run blocks, pass protects and catches the ball. I keep him if I can do it at a doable price. Trouble is, that might not be possible.
5. LB Leighton Vander Esch/Keanu Neal: I am cheating here because it will be one of these two. One stays and one goes and it might be based on which one finishes the year better. But remember, that could make him too expensive. Maybe it will be which one I can afford. I will have to figure out if I want the coverage player or the run stopper. Let’s keep studying these two.
Now, the issue is the Cowboys are far above the cap and many of the huge-priced players have money that is already guaranteed for future years. For instance, DeMarcus Lawrence has a huge number in 2022 and 2023, but you have moved his money so much that releasing him or considering it hardly makes any sense. The Cowboys will need to be creative this spring and they should really consider being careful with pushing money for players over 30.
It is a long way away, but some names to consider. Now, let’s dive into this game.
When the Cowboys have the ball
We know what a Vic Fangio defense is going to do. We know it will bring lots of pressure and then even more on third down. Make no mistake, this is often a “challenge you” defense that wants to make you uncomfortable. Denver calls the second-most blitzes in the NFL. They blitz coming off the bus. They lead the NFL in second-down blitzes and they lead the NFL in third-down blitzes.
Do they still? You see, a quick scan of their defensive personnel from a season preview piece would feature the unreal edge combination of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Miller is now with the Rams and Chubb had foot surgery and is out.
Our projections (subject to change) of Cowboys in 11 personnel vs. the Broncos in nickel.
But the linebackers were AJ Johnson and Josey Jewell. How are they doing?
They both are out for the season with torn pectoral muscles.
OK, but the slot corner Fangio has always loved in Chicago and Denver who can blitz and cause problems is probably picking up the slack, right?
No. He just hurt his knee and was placed on the IR, too.
The Broncos’ defense is a shell of itself. That probably explains why the Broncos roll in here with very nice defensive statistics, but have also lost four of their past five. They just aren’t the defense you might think after looking at our weekly league rankings portrait:
In no way do we underestimate an opponent in this situation, because Denver still has a reasonable secondary and an opportunistic defense. Also, as blitzing goes, you just need one or two ambush plays to turn the entire game. But, if Dallas gets its protection calls correct, it should be able to have its way with a team that is depleted and throwing out experimental linebacker combinations trying to hit on anything to fuel the final half of a season that has turned to mush rather quickly.
If I am Kellen Moore and this offense, I think this is a wonderful opportunity to get back into rhythm with an offense that has been figuring it out on the fly since the New England game. That and whether La’el Collins is a right tackle or left tackle and Terence Steele at the opposite — the Cowboys are playing a small stretch here without Tyron Smith because they want him fully right for the stretch drive. Luckily, they can have the confidence that they can survive without him if he isn’t fit rather than asking him to figure out a way to limp out there because they have no other choices. This organization is a threat to the Lombardi Trophy because it has choices at many spots on the roster.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Dak Prescott vs. Justin Simmons
If there is a premium player in the Denver defense, it is safety Justin Simmons. Most football fans may not be terribly familiar with his overall work, but he is a legitimate difference-maker. He was the highest-graded safety by PFF in 2020 and played every single snap from 2018 until now. He is an interchangeable safety with good toughness and has capable-enough athleticism. At times, he looks aggressive and can handle coverage, but also can fill down in the box with some authority and plays downhill well. Pretty intelligent overall on the backend which is what everyone is looking for in a safety. He is paid a lot now (four years, $61 million), but also does a lot. Since entering the league, Simmons has the second-most interceptions of any safety (Kevin Byard) and the most of any safety on third down. When the Broncos send pressure, Prescott better know that Simmons is lurking in the secondary to jump what he guesses is Prescott’s most likely idea.
When the Broncos have the ball
The frustration in Denver with this offense is very high at the moment. They want to blame Pat Shurmur for an underperforming offense and it is probably fair. But, the Broncos haven’t had a strong offense in years and they have had it. Surely, a few months where many in their media bought the Aaron Rodgers storyline did not help the angst.
Regardless, they have a very ordinary offensive line and quarterback trying to produce with very impressive skill position players. Anytime this happens, we see massive amounts of frustration thrown in every direction. Look at the rankings. You would think with this many ideal names at the “fantasy football” production position, you would not be ranked where they are:
That is very bad. And those critical spots of third down and red zone are the worst spots of all. They are down where the teams that don’t have quality players at those skill position spots reside. Not good at all and I can see why Shurmur is under attack.
The issue that sits in the middle of the room is that Teddy Bridgewater is poor. He is good enough to remain a starting idea in this league but not good enough to emerge as anything to get too excited about. Since Week 5, he leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays, yet his big-time throws are 22nd. Nobody has a negative split that badly over the previous five weeks and it is a result of not being able to balance the risk and reward. This has often been the case with Bridgewater offenses. He is a safe QB who takes the short throws, but makes the mistakes of a gunslinger. You cannot have this, of course, but it seems teams miss this too often.
If we are going to check the ball down and not stress defenses, then we better not throw it into coverage. It actually doesn’t make much sense. If I want a guy who is going to do things that he does — the Las Vegas game is enough to make you lose your mind watching him play — then at least give me the big-time moments that should go with it.
Sticking with Bridgewater tells you that the Broncos are done with Drew Lock. That follows being done with Joe Flacco, done with Case Keenum, done with Trevor Siemian, done with Paxton Lynch, and so on.
You can understand better why they want to go get Rodgers now, but it usually doesn’t work that way. John Elway has had one job since Peyton Manning and it is possible you could fail more at it than he has at finding the next QB1, but not by too much.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Courtland Sutton vs. Dallas’ man coverage
We did this last week and wonder if Dallas is interested in keeping its man coverage pace up against teams with legit outside threats. It seems that Sutton is going to be a huge free-agent catch this offseason, but the one place the Broncos can consistently beat you — and look to do so — is on go routes when they move the safety and expose a corner one-on-one. We know that Trevon Diggs is eager to make plays, but Sutton provides one of the tougher matchups down the sideline that you will encounter. Be advised. Bridgewater’s biggest throws this season have been these against man coverage. Sutton is a beast who is fully fit again after missing 2020 with an ACL.
The pick: Dallas 31, Denver 13
I may live to regret this one, but I don’t see these two teams on similar levels by any stretch. Denver is running into a team that feels great about itself and is playing downhill. Dallas is running into a team that can see that the end is near.
And we are only in Week 9.
ravidubey
DCC 4Life
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With all this talk about Parsons and DROY, you know Surtain is going to be playing with a chip in this game.
I hope Cedrick Wilson blows him up
I hope Cedrick Wilson blows him up
Simpleton
DCC 4Life
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I could see a world where we let both LVE/Neal go and take a LB high in the draft again. Guys like Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean could be the BPA if we're picking at like 28 or whatever, in which case I'd be perfectly fine taking them considering Parsons moves around so much.
Ideally I'd like to keep one of them as insurance but I don't think it'd be a disaster if we let both go, especially because Kearse plays as a pseudo-LB similar to Neal in nickel/dime formations.
We'll have to restructure guys like Cooper and Prescott but I think we can re-sign Gregory, Schultz, Wilson, Kearse, and one of Kazee/Hooker, as well as one of LVE/Neal.
Ideally I'd like to keep one of them as insurance but I don't think it'd be a disaster if we let both go, especially because Kearse plays as a pseudo-LB similar to Neal in nickel/dime formations.
We'll have to restructure guys like Cooper and Prescott but I think we can re-sign Gregory, Schultz, Wilson, Kearse, and one of Kazee/Hooker, as well as one of LVE/Neal.
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Sir, we will be picking at 32.
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Jabril Cox would like a word with you. But in all seriousness I wouldn't take another first round LBer unless it is a talent that is just too good to pass up.