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Good god, please no.
2021 Draft Big Boards, Position Rankings & Mocks
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Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
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Paye? Ugh. I'd rather take Surtain or Rousseau at that point.
SAY NO TO PAYE
SAY NO TO PAYE
Plan9Misfit
Appreciate The Hate
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Oh. Fuck. No. Hard pass on Kwity Paye.
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The other guy I don't get the "hype" on is Oweh.
He is not a top pick but people are really swinging from his dick because of his athleticism.
Overall, if you want a real edge rusher, I don't believe this is the year to go looking for one.
Simpleton
DCC 4Life
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Ojulari might be the best pure edge rusher, maybe Phillips or Ronnie Perkins.
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2021 NFL Mock Draft: Falcons grab Matt Ryan’s replacement, Dolphins target ’Bama
The Athletic NFL Staff Feb 23, 2021
The NFL Draft just more than two months away, on April 29-May 1. Free agency, which begins March 17, will shift the needs of many teams before then. But we’re kick-starting the run-up to the annual NFL Selection Meeting with a new mock draft from our writers at The Athletic who cover the league’s 32 teams.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
If it wasn’t obvious the Jaguars intended to take Lawrence before, it certainly was last week when new Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer spent the entirety of Lawrence’s pro day workout within hair-flip distance of the quarterback who has been projected to be the No. 1 pick in this draft since he played for Cartersville (Ga.) High.
This is a franchise that has been in search of a franchise QB since Mark Brunell’s departure 17 years ago. Blaine Gabbert (2010) and Blake Bortles (2014) couldn’t measure up. The free-agent signing of Super Bowl LII hero Nick Foles was a flop. No QB is a sure thing, but Lawrence is the closest thing to it. — Andy Staples
2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Things were so, so much easier for the Jets when it looked like they would go winless and land Lawrence. Now? Oh boy. General manager Joe Douglas must decide if Wilson or Ohio State’s Justin Fields’ upside is greater than that of incumbent Sam Darnold. The Jets genuinely like Darnold. They believe his play will improve with better coaching and a stronger supporting cast. But Darnold was the worst-rated passer in the NFL last year. Better doesn’t necessarily mean good. Through three years he hasn’t shown ability to make those around him better. His mechanics are a mess. His technique is bad. He’s turnover-prone and reads a defense like I’d read Mandarin.
It’s time to move on.
Wilson isn’t Lawrence — no one in this class is — but there’s an awful lot to like about him. He’s deadly accurate. He’s elusive in the pocket. He’s mobile. He has a cannon for a right arm. He’s tailor-made for coordinator Mike LaFleur’s offense. There are some rumblings of personality red flags — that’s a concern. But Wilson will have opportunities over the next few months to convince Douglas they’re overblown. If he can, he’s the pick. — Connor Hughes
BYU QB Zach Wilson (Rick Bowmer / USA Today)
3. Miami Dolphins: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
(Pick acquired from Houston)
Roll Fins? As the Dolphins aim to surround quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with more playmakers, this reunites him with his former Alabama teammate and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Smith left a lasting impression on Miami’s front office during his final collegiate game, when he caught 12 passes for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the national championship game at … Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. — Josh Tolentino
4. Atlanta Falcons: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Drafting Fields would mark a new era in Atlanta. Mired in a bad salary-cap situation, the Falcons do not have the means to part with Matt Ryan just yet. But Fields would allow Atlanta to build a bridge to a post-Ryan future. The problem is that Fields would likely sit a year which is not something you want to do with a someone picked fourth overall. Perhaps playing behind Ryan for a season would give Fields time to grow into his successor. — Tori McElhaney
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Drafting Chase not only addresses the only real hole we saw in Joe Burrow’s game as a rookie — the deep ball — it also reunites the Bengals quarterback with his favorite target from 2019 when he turned in the greatest single-season performance in college football history. It’s true the offensive line currently is the more glaring need, but the Bengals have the available cash to address that in free agency, freeing them to give Burrow another elite weapon, and established connection, in Chase. — Jay Morrison
6. Philadelphia Eagles: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
The Eagles would have likely pounced on one of the top three quarterbacks or top two wide receivers. In fact, they’d probably be a trade-down candidate at this point. But if this is what the board looks like at No. 6 and they’re making the pick, the Eagles would have a hard time passing up a potential blue-chip left tackle even though they have two options (Jordan Mailata and 2019 first-round pick Andre Dillard) at the position. The Eagles are a roster in transition, and the organizational priority is building along the lines. Sewell is the second-ranked player on the Big Board of The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler. Mailata and Dillard might be promising, but that’s not the reason to pass on Sewell. Trey Lance (yes, another North Dakota State quarterback) and Kyle Pitts (a Philadelphia native) were also under consideration. — Zach Berman
7. Detroit Lions: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
A trade might be the most productive move here as the Lions are just starting this rebuild and don’t have to be in a rush to take a quarterback if they’re not 100 percent sure about him. It’ll be on the table, though. Overall, the Lions offense needs more speed. Waddle is as dangerous as it gets with the ball in his hands. He can be a threat over the top, underneath, maybe even a factor in the run game if new head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn want to get creative. — Nick Baumgardner
8. Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Predicting the Panthers’ pick here depends on whether you think they’ll win the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. Put another way: Just how far is owner David Tepper willing to go to get a franchise quarterback? For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume Watson goes elsewhere and the Panthers take a bit of a gamble on a developmental quarterback, albeit one with a diverse skill set and a high ceiling. Lance shined in a year-plus against FCS competition in an offense that also produced Carson Wentz, which is not the selling point it once was. Lance will have a season to get adjusted to the NFL and learn coordinator Joe Brady’s offense behind Teddy Bridgewater, and then head coach Matt Rhule and company hope their evaluations were on point. — Joseph Person
North Dakota State QB Trey Lance (Tim Heitman / USA Today)
9. Denver Broncos: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
New general manager George Paton may be in the mix for a quarterback depending on whether he can pull off a Watson deal — oddsmakers seem to like the Broncos’ chances — but that’s not really an option in this scenario with the top four signal callers already off the board. Paton will gladly settle for a strong, physical, 6-foot-2, 207-pound defensive back who fits an immediate need. Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II may be more ready to step in right now, and he’d certainly be an option here, but Denver’s timeline would allow Farley to develop on the job while playing, at least next season, for a smart defensive head coach in Vic Fangio. Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons could be a consideration here, too. — Nick Kosmider
10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Cowboys have many defensive needs, but cornerback is arguably the biggest. Starting corners Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis are headed to free agency, and Dallas badly needs to upgrade the position. Surtain or Farley makes a lot of sense. Pairing either with Trevon Diggs, last year’s second-round pick, would have to excite new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. There are some concerns about Surtain’s overall speed, but his résumé is just too impressive to pass on at this spot. It’s interesting to think the Cowboys might almost have their choice of the top defensive player in this draft class at pick 10. — Jon Machota
11. New York Giants: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
There would be some angst in the Giants draft room if the top three wide receivers were off the board by No. 11. Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater is intriguing because the Giants offensive line is far from a finished product, and Parsons would be attractive as a potential game-changing defensive player. But owner John Mara and general manager Dave Gettleman have made no secret of their intention to add offensive playmakers. Pitts fits that profile. The 6-foot-6, 246-pound tight end/wide receiver is the matchup nightmare Evan Engram was supposed to be. An offense with Pitts, a healthy Saquon Barkley and a potential top free-agent wide receiver would be far more formidable than the unit that finished 31st in scoring last season. — Dan Duggan
Florida TE Kyle Pitts (Courtney Culbreath / Collegiate Images / Getty Images)
12. San Francisco 49ers: Rashawn Slater, G/OT, Northwestern
With Nick Bosa coming off an ACL tear and Dee Ford’s future murky because of a back issue, the 49ers are badly in need of a defensive end. But taking one here might be a reach. Slater is the best player on the board at this point. The 49ers could insert him immediately at right guard, a problem area in recent seasons, with an eye on him moving to tackle in the future. A plausible alternate scenario: Another team looking for a tackle trades up to get Slater, the 49ers trade back, draft a defensive end and add several more picks in the process. — Matt Barrows
13. L.A. Chargers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
The Chargers desperately need more offensive line talent to protect quarterback Justin Herbert and improve what was one of the worst rushing attacks in football last year. Vera-Tucker would slide in immediately as the starter at left guard. He also played left tackle last year for the Trojans after starting at guard as a redshirt sophomore, and that versatility is a bonus. The Chargers need to bolster all five positions up front, especially considering three of their starters — Sam Tevi, Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney — are set to hit free agency. — Daniel Popper
14. Minnesota Vikings: Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
Coach Mike Zimmer said after a disappointing season that the Vikings had to improve their pass rush. Paye provides a big help in that department. His three-cone drill was off the charts, which the Vikings love, a demonstration of the athleticism that made Paye the “freakiest” athlete in college football, according to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman. Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore was awfully tempting here considering how bad the Vikings’ interior defensive line was, and they surely would consider trading down with no defensive linemen off the board yet. But if we have to take someone at No. 14, we’re going with Paye to improve the pass rush. — Chad Graff
15. New England Patriots: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
This was a tougher decision than anticipated, as Parsons might be the best defensive prospect in the draft. Coach Bill Belichick would love the idea of injecting Parsons’ athleticism into the middle of his defense, and he has never been shy about spending quality picks at linebacker. The Patriots figure to add a few front-seven bodies through free agency and the draft, and Parsons should be a piece worth building around for the next decade. Add him into a young core with Josh Uche, Kyle Dugger, Anfernee Jennings and Chase Winovich, and the future will look bright. As for the tough part of the decision, Miami pass rusher Gregory Rousseau and Virginia Tech tackle Christian Darrisaw were very tempting. — Jeff Howe
16. Arizona Cardinals: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Cardinals could go with an edge rusher here, but corner is the bigger need. Both of last season’s starters — Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick — can be free agents, and there’s little depth behind them. GM Steve Keim can be unpredictable with his draft selections, but this time he may have no choice. At 6-1, 205 pounds, Horn has great length and athletic ability. He also has solid ball skills and is physical enough to help stop the run. — Doug Haller
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami
The Raiders were taking either Paye or Rousseau, forget this best-player-available nonsense. They need a pass rusher badly, and Rousseau is 6-foot-7, 265 pounds with speed, power, good hands and bend. He had 15.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in 2019 while learning a new position — he was a safety and receiver in high school and then put on 30 pounds — and his high motor shows on the tape. Rousseau opted out of the 2020 season due to concerns surrounding the COVID-19 virus. He can line up immediately on passing downs opposite Maxx Crosby, with Clelin Ferrell moving inside. — Vic Tafur
18. Miami Dolphins: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Roll Fins, indeed! Besides adding an explosive playmaker at wideout, improving the rushing attack should be near the top of Miami’s list of priorities. Over the past two seasons, the Dolphins have ranked 32nd and 25th in yards per carry. Enter Harris, whom The Athletic’s Dane Brugler describes as quick and graceful, while displaying “athletic cuts, natural instincts, reliability as a pass-catcher and toughness to wear down defenses.” The additions of Smith and Harris will provide Tagovailoa with immediate familiarity and additional comfort as he prepares to enter his second season with the Dolphins after going 6-3 as the starter. Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari, both linebackers, were also considered. — Josh Tolentino
Alabama RB Najee Harris (Kent Gidley / Collegiate Images / Getty Images)
19. Washington Football Team: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
There’s a quarterback on the board in Alabama’s Mac Jones, and that’s Washington’s top need, but adding a veteran to the current mix is the more likely outcome. There’s a solid case here for a receiver (Florida’s Kadarius Toney) or left tackle (Darrisaw), and no doubt an offense that ranked 25th in scoring last season needs more oomph. However, the linebacking unit is the clear weak link defensively and a group coach Ron Rivera called out at times during the season. Owusu-Koramoah finished with 11 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles last season. The 6-foot-1, 215-pounder brings needed speed and versatility to a defense lacking that element behind a loaded line. — Ben Standig
20. Chicago Bears: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Unless GM Ryan Pace lands Watson or Derek Carr from the Raiders, he has to consider using a first-round pick on a quarterback after not taking any since trading up for Mitch Trubisky in 2017. Four years ago, Pace said it was Trubisky’s accuracy that jumped out. Well, how about a 77.4 percent completion rate from Jones last season to go along with 41 touchdowns and four picks? Not to mention the fact that Jones has one-and-a-half seasons of tape as a starter and a national title, while Trubisky had one year and a loss in the Sun Bowl. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler refers to Jones as a high-floor, low-ceiling NFL starter. Based on the history of Bears quarterbacks, the franchise should be content with that. — Kevin Fishbain
21. Indianapolis Colts: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
This isn’t necessarily as simple as taking the top offensive tackle on the board. At the same time … the Colts take the top offensive tackle on the board. Keeping their first-round choice in the Carson Wentz trade allows the Colts to shore up their left tackle spot after the retirement of Anthony Castonzo, and that’s great news for Wentz after his league-high 50 sacks in Philadelphia last season. Darrisaw can play in space, but he brings a physicality that will serve him well in Indy’s power-run game. — Stephen Holder
22. Tennessee Titans: Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
Even if the Titans spend another chunk of money on the pass rush during free agency as expected, they’ve got to invest a high pick in someone who can complement — and ideally, exceed — 2018 second-round pick Harold Landry on the outside for the next few years. If Ojulari is still there at No. 22, he’d be an easy choice. That is, as long as Titans brass can forgive whoever from Georgia told them all they wanted to hear about Isaiah Wilson, last year’s disappointing first-round pick. Ojulari is a bit light at 240 pounds, but that also means versatility. He did some dropping in Georgia’s 3-4 scheme and took a big step forward as a pass rusher in 2020 with 8.5 sacks. Ojulari could fit in nicely as the third guy to support Landry and the free-agent signing TBD. — Joe Rexrode
23. New York Jets: Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State
(Pick acquired from Seattle)
The Jets can’t make the same mistake they did with Darnold. They need to surround Wilson with talent. Good news: They’ll have nearly $90 million in salary-cap space and another three selections in the second and third rounds (which could increase if they trade Darnold) to do that. So while a receiver or offensive lineman might work here, Oweh fills a big need on defense. The Jets haven’t had an edge-rushing threat since trading John Abraham … in 2006. Oweh will join a defensive line that features Quinnen Williams, Foley Fatukasi, John Franklin-Myers and Jabari Zuniga. — Connor Hughes
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
The Steelers have neglected the offensive line for nearly a decade, and it has finally caught up with them with the worst running game in the league last year. A near-total rebuild is in order up front. It has already started with the retirement of Maurkice Pouncey and the likely departure of Alejandro Villanueva as well as new offensive line coaches being hired. The remake will continue with Mayfield — which would mark the Steelers’ first selection of a tackle in the first round since the colossal bust of Jamain Stephens in 1996. Mayfield will have an opportunity to play immediately at left tackle because he fits the criteria for what the Steelers look for in a first-rounder — Power 5 school (Michigan), underclassman (redshirt sophomore), young (won’t turn 21 until the end of May) and experienced (started 15 of 18 games). The Steelers haven’t taken a non-Power 5 player in the first round since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. — Mark Kaboly
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
(Pick acquired from L.A. Rams)
The Jaguars will be thrilled if this is how the actual draft turns out. They need interior defensive line help, and even though they have abundant cap space, free-agent options on the inside of the line are limited and expensive. Barmore might be the only first-round-quality interior lineman in this draft, so they would happily scoop him up with this pick they received from the Rams in the Jalen Ramsey trade. If Barmore plays the way he played at the end of the 2020 season, he could provide valuable push up the middle, which would only make Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson more effective rushers on the outside. — Andy Staples
26. Cleveland Browns: Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
The Browns need help at every level of the defense. That means they have options, even at No. 26, and at this all-too-early stage, it’s hard to imagine Newsome not being near the top of their list. Even if Greedy Williams comes back from the nerve issue in his shoulder that forced him to miss all of last season, the Browns are still in need of cornerback help. Newsome, who’s just 21, is rangy and has the tools to eventually become a top-tier player alongside Denzel Ward, who’s in line for a big extension as the Browns go through a defensive remake in the coming months. — Zac Jackson
27. Baltimore Ravens: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
The Ravens are engaged in trade talks involving right tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who has informed the team that he’d like to be dealt to a team that will play him at left tackle. If the Ravens can get a first-rounder in return for Brown or perhaps two Day 2 picks, he’s likely gone and they’ll need to find a replacement. Jenkins is big, nasty and a strong run blocker, so he’d fit right in to a Ravens offensive line that figures to get some reinforcements this offseason. If the Ravens opt to hold onto Brown, I’d look harder at Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Bateman, Alabama guard/center Landon Dickerson or TCU safety Trevon Moehrig. However, a Brown trade would leave a gaping hole at right tackle. — Jeff Zrebiec
28. New Orleans Saints: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
The Saints witnessed first-hand how well the Buccaneers fared with two stellar linebackers in Devin White and Lavonte David. New Orleans currently only employs one — Demario Davis. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler described the 6-3, 259-pound Collins as possessing the size of a defensive end with the athleticism of a safety offering every-down ability. New Orleans drafted Zack Baun in the third round last year with the hopes he’d become a middle linebacker. There’s no indication Baun can handle the transition yet after being more of an edge rusher at Wisconsin. The Saints could easily take the best player available regardless of position. At No. 28, this might be the best of both worlds. — Larry Holder
29. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
With starting outside cornerback Kevin King likely to sign elsewhere in free agency, the Packers need someone to pair with second-team All-Pro Jaire Alexander. The NFC Championship Game served as a harsh reminder that no matter how much Alexander locks down one side of the field, a competent offense can exploit the other. Campbell stands 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, which if he starts from Day 1, would give Green Bay a nice contrast in body types between him and Alexander. Says The Athletic’s Dane Brugler of Campbell, “All the talent is there for him to grow into an NFL starter.” Campbell wouldn’t have to start right away if the Packers sign a veteran like Richard Sherman or Xavier Rhodes in free agency, but targeting a future starting outside cornerback is paramount in this year’s draft, nonetheless. — Matt Schneidman
30. Buffalo Bills: Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Bills need offensive line help. Starting guard Jon Feliciano and right tackle Daryl Williams are both scheduled to become free agents. Given their tight cap situation, the Bills may have a hard time retaining both. Either way, Buffalo needs to get younger up front. In the four drafts since Sean McDermott took over as head coach in 2017, the Bills have drafted three offensive linemen and just two on the first two days of the draft. Cody Ford’s future appears to be at guard, so the Bills should invest in a young tackle to handle the right side opposite Dion Dawkins. Eichenberg was reliable throughout his career at Notre Dame, showing the type of power and nastiness in the running game the Bills love. This looks like it could be a sweet spot for offensive linemen in the draft order, but don’t be surprised if the Bills entertain trading back to get more picks on the second day of the draft. — Matthew Fairburn
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami (Fla.)
Based on the performance of their makeshift offensive line in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are likely to prioritize protecting Patrick Mahomes by strengthening that group, especially with injuries to Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz. But with the run on tackles late in the first round, the Chiefs can try to solve their pass-rushing issues by selecting Phillips. Even with star pass rushers in Chris Jones and Frank Clark, the Chiefs’ defensive line didn’t generate consistent pressure on quarterbacks when coordinator Steve Spagnuolo wasn’t blitzing. Adding Phillips, a quick, athletic defender with violent hands, gives the Chiefs a formidable trio to complement their strong secondary. — Nate Taylor
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joseph Ossai, Edge, Texas
With little depth behind Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, an outside pass rusher makes good sense for the Bucs, who would love for Phillips to fall to them. If free agency creates a more immediate hole to fill, they could turn to Iowa defensive lineman Daviyon Nixon here, but Ossai adds a much-needed dose of youth to Tampa Bay’s pass rush. — Greg Auman
Three teams — the Seattle Seahawks, L.A. Rams and Houston Texans — do not have first-round picks. So our writers projected picks for when they first come on the board.
56. Seattle Seahawks: Deonte Brown, G, Alabama
Seattle’s current goal is to put as many “grown men” in front of Russell Wilson as possible. All it takes is one look at the 6-foot-3, 364-pound Brown to see he fits that description. The team needs upgrades up front because Wilson is all over the airwaves saying his protection stinks, which means running it back with Mike Iupati or Jordan Simmons won’t cut it. Last year the team hit on an interior lineman from the national champs with its selection of LSU’s Damien Lewis, who turned out to be one of the league’s best rookie linemen. Taking another big, physical stud from another SEC powerhouse could pay dividends as well. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
57. L.A. Rams: Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
This pick was made under the current assumption that the Rams will bring back outside linebacker Leonard Floyd in free agency or sign other edge-rusher depth in free agency to continue their streak of non-drafted investment there. Radunz gives the Rams a lot of options along the offensive line. They may decide to part ways with right tackle Rob Havenstein, and Radunz could be a replacement. He would then project to swing over to the left tackle spot once veteran franchise tackle Andrew Whitworth hangs it up. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler also said that Radunz could play either tackle or guard in the NFL, and that he “loves to get physical in the run game” — and that’s Rams coach Sean McVay’s music. It’s not the sexiest first pick of the draft for the Rams, but Radunz could be an answer to many long-term questions. — Jourdan Rodrigue
67. Houston Texans: Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan
Even if the Texans eventually trade quarterback Deshaun Watson and have multiple picks before this one, there’s no bad time for this team to add a cornerback. Houston’s defense was painfully thin at corner last season and stands to lose most of its contributors there. Vernon Hargreaves, Phillip Gaines and Gareon Conley are all set to hit free agency. Bradley Roby is the only returning corner with much experience, and because he received a six-game PED suspension, the Texans could even void the guarantees in his contract and move on from him, too. Thomas, who opted out of the 2020 season, made just 13 starts on defense, so he is far from a finished project. But he has the speed to compete in the NFL, and the Texans aren’t in a position to contend next season anyway. At pick No. 67, Houston can’t ask for much better than a prospect ticketed by The Athletic’s Dane Brugler as the 10th-best cornerback in the draft. — Aaron Reiss
The Athletic NFL Staff Feb 23, 2021
The NFL Draft just more than two months away, on April 29-May 1. Free agency, which begins March 17, will shift the needs of many teams before then. But we’re kick-starting the run-up to the annual NFL Selection Meeting with a new mock draft from our writers at The Athletic who cover the league’s 32 teams.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
If it wasn’t obvious the Jaguars intended to take Lawrence before, it certainly was last week when new Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer spent the entirety of Lawrence’s pro day workout within hair-flip distance of the quarterback who has been projected to be the No. 1 pick in this draft since he played for Cartersville (Ga.) High.
This is a franchise that has been in search of a franchise QB since Mark Brunell’s departure 17 years ago. Blaine Gabbert (2010) and Blake Bortles (2014) couldn’t measure up. The free-agent signing of Super Bowl LII hero Nick Foles was a flop. No QB is a sure thing, but Lawrence is the closest thing to it. — Andy Staples
2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Things were so, so much easier for the Jets when it looked like they would go winless and land Lawrence. Now? Oh boy. General manager Joe Douglas must decide if Wilson or Ohio State’s Justin Fields’ upside is greater than that of incumbent Sam Darnold. The Jets genuinely like Darnold. They believe his play will improve with better coaching and a stronger supporting cast. But Darnold was the worst-rated passer in the NFL last year. Better doesn’t necessarily mean good. Through three years he hasn’t shown ability to make those around him better. His mechanics are a mess. His technique is bad. He’s turnover-prone and reads a defense like I’d read Mandarin.
It’s time to move on.
Wilson isn’t Lawrence — no one in this class is — but there’s an awful lot to like about him. He’s deadly accurate. He’s elusive in the pocket. He’s mobile. He has a cannon for a right arm. He’s tailor-made for coordinator Mike LaFleur’s offense. There are some rumblings of personality red flags — that’s a concern. But Wilson will have opportunities over the next few months to convince Douglas they’re overblown. If he can, he’s the pick. — Connor Hughes
BYU QB Zach Wilson (Rick Bowmer / USA Today)
3. Miami Dolphins: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
(Pick acquired from Houston)
Roll Fins? As the Dolphins aim to surround quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with more playmakers, this reunites him with his former Alabama teammate and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Smith left a lasting impression on Miami’s front office during his final collegiate game, when he caught 12 passes for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the national championship game at … Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. — Josh Tolentino
4. Atlanta Falcons: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Drafting Fields would mark a new era in Atlanta. Mired in a bad salary-cap situation, the Falcons do not have the means to part with Matt Ryan just yet. But Fields would allow Atlanta to build a bridge to a post-Ryan future. The problem is that Fields would likely sit a year which is not something you want to do with a someone picked fourth overall. Perhaps playing behind Ryan for a season would give Fields time to grow into his successor. — Tori McElhaney
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Drafting Chase not only addresses the only real hole we saw in Joe Burrow’s game as a rookie — the deep ball — it also reunites the Bengals quarterback with his favorite target from 2019 when he turned in the greatest single-season performance in college football history. It’s true the offensive line currently is the more glaring need, but the Bengals have the available cash to address that in free agency, freeing them to give Burrow another elite weapon, and established connection, in Chase. — Jay Morrison
6. Philadelphia Eagles: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
The Eagles would have likely pounced on one of the top three quarterbacks or top two wide receivers. In fact, they’d probably be a trade-down candidate at this point. But if this is what the board looks like at No. 6 and they’re making the pick, the Eagles would have a hard time passing up a potential blue-chip left tackle even though they have two options (Jordan Mailata and 2019 first-round pick Andre Dillard) at the position. The Eagles are a roster in transition, and the organizational priority is building along the lines. Sewell is the second-ranked player on the Big Board of The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler. Mailata and Dillard might be promising, but that’s not the reason to pass on Sewell. Trey Lance (yes, another North Dakota State quarterback) and Kyle Pitts (a Philadelphia native) were also under consideration. — Zach Berman
7. Detroit Lions: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
A trade might be the most productive move here as the Lions are just starting this rebuild and don’t have to be in a rush to take a quarterback if they’re not 100 percent sure about him. It’ll be on the table, though. Overall, the Lions offense needs more speed. Waddle is as dangerous as it gets with the ball in his hands. He can be a threat over the top, underneath, maybe even a factor in the run game if new head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn want to get creative. — Nick Baumgardner
8. Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Predicting the Panthers’ pick here depends on whether you think they’ll win the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. Put another way: Just how far is owner David Tepper willing to go to get a franchise quarterback? For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume Watson goes elsewhere and the Panthers take a bit of a gamble on a developmental quarterback, albeit one with a diverse skill set and a high ceiling. Lance shined in a year-plus against FCS competition in an offense that also produced Carson Wentz, which is not the selling point it once was. Lance will have a season to get adjusted to the NFL and learn coordinator Joe Brady’s offense behind Teddy Bridgewater, and then head coach Matt Rhule and company hope their evaluations were on point. — Joseph Person
North Dakota State QB Trey Lance (Tim Heitman / USA Today)
9. Denver Broncos: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
New general manager George Paton may be in the mix for a quarterback depending on whether he can pull off a Watson deal — oddsmakers seem to like the Broncos’ chances — but that’s not really an option in this scenario with the top four signal callers already off the board. Paton will gladly settle for a strong, physical, 6-foot-2, 207-pound defensive back who fits an immediate need. Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II may be more ready to step in right now, and he’d certainly be an option here, but Denver’s timeline would allow Farley to develop on the job while playing, at least next season, for a smart defensive head coach in Vic Fangio. Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons could be a consideration here, too. — Nick Kosmider
10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Cowboys have many defensive needs, but cornerback is arguably the biggest. Starting corners Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis are headed to free agency, and Dallas badly needs to upgrade the position. Surtain or Farley makes a lot of sense. Pairing either with Trevon Diggs, last year’s second-round pick, would have to excite new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. There are some concerns about Surtain’s overall speed, but his résumé is just too impressive to pass on at this spot. It’s interesting to think the Cowboys might almost have their choice of the top defensive player in this draft class at pick 10. — Jon Machota
11. New York Giants: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
There would be some angst in the Giants draft room if the top three wide receivers were off the board by No. 11. Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater is intriguing because the Giants offensive line is far from a finished product, and Parsons would be attractive as a potential game-changing defensive player. But owner John Mara and general manager Dave Gettleman have made no secret of their intention to add offensive playmakers. Pitts fits that profile. The 6-foot-6, 246-pound tight end/wide receiver is the matchup nightmare Evan Engram was supposed to be. An offense with Pitts, a healthy Saquon Barkley and a potential top free-agent wide receiver would be far more formidable than the unit that finished 31st in scoring last season. — Dan Duggan
Florida TE Kyle Pitts (Courtney Culbreath / Collegiate Images / Getty Images)
12. San Francisco 49ers: Rashawn Slater, G/OT, Northwestern
With Nick Bosa coming off an ACL tear and Dee Ford’s future murky because of a back issue, the 49ers are badly in need of a defensive end. But taking one here might be a reach. Slater is the best player on the board at this point. The 49ers could insert him immediately at right guard, a problem area in recent seasons, with an eye on him moving to tackle in the future. A plausible alternate scenario: Another team looking for a tackle trades up to get Slater, the 49ers trade back, draft a defensive end and add several more picks in the process. — Matt Barrows
13. L.A. Chargers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
The Chargers desperately need more offensive line talent to protect quarterback Justin Herbert and improve what was one of the worst rushing attacks in football last year. Vera-Tucker would slide in immediately as the starter at left guard. He also played left tackle last year for the Trojans after starting at guard as a redshirt sophomore, and that versatility is a bonus. The Chargers need to bolster all five positions up front, especially considering three of their starters — Sam Tevi, Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney — are set to hit free agency. — Daniel Popper
14. Minnesota Vikings: Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
Coach Mike Zimmer said after a disappointing season that the Vikings had to improve their pass rush. Paye provides a big help in that department. His three-cone drill was off the charts, which the Vikings love, a demonstration of the athleticism that made Paye the “freakiest” athlete in college football, according to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman. Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore was awfully tempting here considering how bad the Vikings’ interior defensive line was, and they surely would consider trading down with no defensive linemen off the board yet. But if we have to take someone at No. 14, we’re going with Paye to improve the pass rush. — Chad Graff
15. New England Patriots: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
This was a tougher decision than anticipated, as Parsons might be the best defensive prospect in the draft. Coach Bill Belichick would love the idea of injecting Parsons’ athleticism into the middle of his defense, and he has never been shy about spending quality picks at linebacker. The Patriots figure to add a few front-seven bodies through free agency and the draft, and Parsons should be a piece worth building around for the next decade. Add him into a young core with Josh Uche, Kyle Dugger, Anfernee Jennings and Chase Winovich, and the future will look bright. As for the tough part of the decision, Miami pass rusher Gregory Rousseau and Virginia Tech tackle Christian Darrisaw were very tempting. — Jeff Howe
16. Arizona Cardinals: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Cardinals could go with an edge rusher here, but corner is the bigger need. Both of last season’s starters — Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick — can be free agents, and there’s little depth behind them. GM Steve Keim can be unpredictable with his draft selections, but this time he may have no choice. At 6-1, 205 pounds, Horn has great length and athletic ability. He also has solid ball skills and is physical enough to help stop the run. — Doug Haller
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami
The Raiders were taking either Paye or Rousseau, forget this best-player-available nonsense. They need a pass rusher badly, and Rousseau is 6-foot-7, 265 pounds with speed, power, good hands and bend. He had 15.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in 2019 while learning a new position — he was a safety and receiver in high school and then put on 30 pounds — and his high motor shows on the tape. Rousseau opted out of the 2020 season due to concerns surrounding the COVID-19 virus. He can line up immediately on passing downs opposite Maxx Crosby, with Clelin Ferrell moving inside. — Vic Tafur
18. Miami Dolphins: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Roll Fins, indeed! Besides adding an explosive playmaker at wideout, improving the rushing attack should be near the top of Miami’s list of priorities. Over the past two seasons, the Dolphins have ranked 32nd and 25th in yards per carry. Enter Harris, whom The Athletic’s Dane Brugler describes as quick and graceful, while displaying “athletic cuts, natural instincts, reliability as a pass-catcher and toughness to wear down defenses.” The additions of Smith and Harris will provide Tagovailoa with immediate familiarity and additional comfort as he prepares to enter his second season with the Dolphins after going 6-3 as the starter. Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari, both linebackers, were also considered. — Josh Tolentino
Alabama RB Najee Harris (Kent Gidley / Collegiate Images / Getty Images)
19. Washington Football Team: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
There’s a quarterback on the board in Alabama’s Mac Jones, and that’s Washington’s top need, but adding a veteran to the current mix is the more likely outcome. There’s a solid case here for a receiver (Florida’s Kadarius Toney) or left tackle (Darrisaw), and no doubt an offense that ranked 25th in scoring last season needs more oomph. However, the linebacking unit is the clear weak link defensively and a group coach Ron Rivera called out at times during the season. Owusu-Koramoah finished with 11 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles last season. The 6-foot-1, 215-pounder brings needed speed and versatility to a defense lacking that element behind a loaded line. — Ben Standig
20. Chicago Bears: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Unless GM Ryan Pace lands Watson or Derek Carr from the Raiders, he has to consider using a first-round pick on a quarterback after not taking any since trading up for Mitch Trubisky in 2017. Four years ago, Pace said it was Trubisky’s accuracy that jumped out. Well, how about a 77.4 percent completion rate from Jones last season to go along with 41 touchdowns and four picks? Not to mention the fact that Jones has one-and-a-half seasons of tape as a starter and a national title, while Trubisky had one year and a loss in the Sun Bowl. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler refers to Jones as a high-floor, low-ceiling NFL starter. Based on the history of Bears quarterbacks, the franchise should be content with that. — Kevin Fishbain
21. Indianapolis Colts: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
This isn’t necessarily as simple as taking the top offensive tackle on the board. At the same time … the Colts take the top offensive tackle on the board. Keeping their first-round choice in the Carson Wentz trade allows the Colts to shore up their left tackle spot after the retirement of Anthony Castonzo, and that’s great news for Wentz after his league-high 50 sacks in Philadelphia last season. Darrisaw can play in space, but he brings a physicality that will serve him well in Indy’s power-run game. — Stephen Holder
22. Tennessee Titans: Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
Even if the Titans spend another chunk of money on the pass rush during free agency as expected, they’ve got to invest a high pick in someone who can complement — and ideally, exceed — 2018 second-round pick Harold Landry on the outside for the next few years. If Ojulari is still there at No. 22, he’d be an easy choice. That is, as long as Titans brass can forgive whoever from Georgia told them all they wanted to hear about Isaiah Wilson, last year’s disappointing first-round pick. Ojulari is a bit light at 240 pounds, but that also means versatility. He did some dropping in Georgia’s 3-4 scheme and took a big step forward as a pass rusher in 2020 with 8.5 sacks. Ojulari could fit in nicely as the third guy to support Landry and the free-agent signing TBD. — Joe Rexrode
23. New York Jets: Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State
(Pick acquired from Seattle)
The Jets can’t make the same mistake they did with Darnold. They need to surround Wilson with talent. Good news: They’ll have nearly $90 million in salary-cap space and another three selections in the second and third rounds (which could increase if they trade Darnold) to do that. So while a receiver or offensive lineman might work here, Oweh fills a big need on defense. The Jets haven’t had an edge-rushing threat since trading John Abraham … in 2006. Oweh will join a defensive line that features Quinnen Williams, Foley Fatukasi, John Franklin-Myers and Jabari Zuniga. — Connor Hughes
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
The Steelers have neglected the offensive line for nearly a decade, and it has finally caught up with them with the worst running game in the league last year. A near-total rebuild is in order up front. It has already started with the retirement of Maurkice Pouncey and the likely departure of Alejandro Villanueva as well as new offensive line coaches being hired. The remake will continue with Mayfield — which would mark the Steelers’ first selection of a tackle in the first round since the colossal bust of Jamain Stephens in 1996. Mayfield will have an opportunity to play immediately at left tackle because he fits the criteria for what the Steelers look for in a first-rounder — Power 5 school (Michigan), underclassman (redshirt sophomore), young (won’t turn 21 until the end of May) and experienced (started 15 of 18 games). The Steelers haven’t taken a non-Power 5 player in the first round since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. — Mark Kaboly
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
(Pick acquired from L.A. Rams)
The Jaguars will be thrilled if this is how the actual draft turns out. They need interior defensive line help, and even though they have abundant cap space, free-agent options on the inside of the line are limited and expensive. Barmore might be the only first-round-quality interior lineman in this draft, so they would happily scoop him up with this pick they received from the Rams in the Jalen Ramsey trade. If Barmore plays the way he played at the end of the 2020 season, he could provide valuable push up the middle, which would only make Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson more effective rushers on the outside. — Andy Staples
26. Cleveland Browns: Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
The Browns need help at every level of the defense. That means they have options, even at No. 26, and at this all-too-early stage, it’s hard to imagine Newsome not being near the top of their list. Even if Greedy Williams comes back from the nerve issue in his shoulder that forced him to miss all of last season, the Browns are still in need of cornerback help. Newsome, who’s just 21, is rangy and has the tools to eventually become a top-tier player alongside Denzel Ward, who’s in line for a big extension as the Browns go through a defensive remake in the coming months. — Zac Jackson
27. Baltimore Ravens: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
The Ravens are engaged in trade talks involving right tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who has informed the team that he’d like to be dealt to a team that will play him at left tackle. If the Ravens can get a first-rounder in return for Brown or perhaps two Day 2 picks, he’s likely gone and they’ll need to find a replacement. Jenkins is big, nasty and a strong run blocker, so he’d fit right in to a Ravens offensive line that figures to get some reinforcements this offseason. If the Ravens opt to hold onto Brown, I’d look harder at Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Bateman, Alabama guard/center Landon Dickerson or TCU safety Trevon Moehrig. However, a Brown trade would leave a gaping hole at right tackle. — Jeff Zrebiec
28. New Orleans Saints: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
The Saints witnessed first-hand how well the Buccaneers fared with two stellar linebackers in Devin White and Lavonte David. New Orleans currently only employs one — Demario Davis. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler described the 6-3, 259-pound Collins as possessing the size of a defensive end with the athleticism of a safety offering every-down ability. New Orleans drafted Zack Baun in the third round last year with the hopes he’d become a middle linebacker. There’s no indication Baun can handle the transition yet after being more of an edge rusher at Wisconsin. The Saints could easily take the best player available regardless of position. At No. 28, this might be the best of both worlds. — Larry Holder
29. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
With starting outside cornerback Kevin King likely to sign elsewhere in free agency, the Packers need someone to pair with second-team All-Pro Jaire Alexander. The NFC Championship Game served as a harsh reminder that no matter how much Alexander locks down one side of the field, a competent offense can exploit the other. Campbell stands 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, which if he starts from Day 1, would give Green Bay a nice contrast in body types between him and Alexander. Says The Athletic’s Dane Brugler of Campbell, “All the talent is there for him to grow into an NFL starter.” Campbell wouldn’t have to start right away if the Packers sign a veteran like Richard Sherman or Xavier Rhodes in free agency, but targeting a future starting outside cornerback is paramount in this year’s draft, nonetheless. — Matt Schneidman
30. Buffalo Bills: Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Bills need offensive line help. Starting guard Jon Feliciano and right tackle Daryl Williams are both scheduled to become free agents. Given their tight cap situation, the Bills may have a hard time retaining both. Either way, Buffalo needs to get younger up front. In the four drafts since Sean McDermott took over as head coach in 2017, the Bills have drafted three offensive linemen and just two on the first two days of the draft. Cody Ford’s future appears to be at guard, so the Bills should invest in a young tackle to handle the right side opposite Dion Dawkins. Eichenberg was reliable throughout his career at Notre Dame, showing the type of power and nastiness in the running game the Bills love. This looks like it could be a sweet spot for offensive linemen in the draft order, but don’t be surprised if the Bills entertain trading back to get more picks on the second day of the draft. — Matthew Fairburn
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami (Fla.)
Based on the performance of their makeshift offensive line in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are likely to prioritize protecting Patrick Mahomes by strengthening that group, especially with injuries to Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz. But with the run on tackles late in the first round, the Chiefs can try to solve their pass-rushing issues by selecting Phillips. Even with star pass rushers in Chris Jones and Frank Clark, the Chiefs’ defensive line didn’t generate consistent pressure on quarterbacks when coordinator Steve Spagnuolo wasn’t blitzing. Adding Phillips, a quick, athletic defender with violent hands, gives the Chiefs a formidable trio to complement their strong secondary. — Nate Taylor
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joseph Ossai, Edge, Texas
With little depth behind Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, an outside pass rusher makes good sense for the Bucs, who would love for Phillips to fall to them. If free agency creates a more immediate hole to fill, they could turn to Iowa defensive lineman Daviyon Nixon here, but Ossai adds a much-needed dose of youth to Tampa Bay’s pass rush. — Greg Auman
Three teams — the Seattle Seahawks, L.A. Rams and Houston Texans — do not have first-round picks. So our writers projected picks for when they first come on the board.
56. Seattle Seahawks: Deonte Brown, G, Alabama
Seattle’s current goal is to put as many “grown men” in front of Russell Wilson as possible. All it takes is one look at the 6-foot-3, 364-pound Brown to see he fits that description. The team needs upgrades up front because Wilson is all over the airwaves saying his protection stinks, which means running it back with Mike Iupati or Jordan Simmons won’t cut it. Last year the team hit on an interior lineman from the national champs with its selection of LSU’s Damien Lewis, who turned out to be one of the league’s best rookie linemen. Taking another big, physical stud from another SEC powerhouse could pay dividends as well. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
57. L.A. Rams: Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
This pick was made under the current assumption that the Rams will bring back outside linebacker Leonard Floyd in free agency or sign other edge-rusher depth in free agency to continue their streak of non-drafted investment there. Radunz gives the Rams a lot of options along the offensive line. They may decide to part ways with right tackle Rob Havenstein, and Radunz could be a replacement. He would then project to swing over to the left tackle spot once veteran franchise tackle Andrew Whitworth hangs it up. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler also said that Radunz could play either tackle or guard in the NFL, and that he “loves to get physical in the run game” — and that’s Rams coach Sean McVay’s music. It’s not the sexiest first pick of the draft for the Rams, but Radunz could be an answer to many long-term questions. — Jourdan Rodrigue
67. Houston Texans: Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan
Even if the Texans eventually trade quarterback Deshaun Watson and have multiple picks before this one, there’s no bad time for this team to add a cornerback. Houston’s defense was painfully thin at corner last season and stands to lose most of its contributors there. Vernon Hargreaves, Phillip Gaines and Gareon Conley are all set to hit free agency. Bradley Roby is the only returning corner with much experience, and because he received a six-game PED suspension, the Texans could even void the guarantees in his contract and move on from him, too. Thomas, who opted out of the 2020 season, made just 13 starts on defense, so he is far from a finished project. But he has the speed to compete in the NFL, and the Texans aren’t in a position to contend next season anyway. At pick No. 67, Houston can’t ask for much better than a prospect ticketed by The Athletic’s Dane Brugler as the 10th-best cornerback in the draft. — Aaron Reiss
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NFL mock draft 2021: Mel Kiper's new predictions for all 32 first-round picks, including Mac Jones, Trey Lance and three trades
Mel Kiper Jr.Football analyst
My second mock for the 2021 NFL draft includes a first. This is the first time in my history of doing mock drafts that I'm going to project trades in my projection of picks 1-32.
I've always stayed away because it's impossible to know how teams will maneuver -- and what offers they could get -- but this quarterback class is too good. I wanted to find fits for the top five in the class. So after I waived the no-trades clause for Todd McShay's latest mock draft, I figured it was time to make a few deals myself. You'll find explanations for all three of my deals below.
Normally at this time we'd be headed to the NFL combine to watch prospects compete. Now we'll settle for the testing numbers at pro days. It's a unique year, but all 32 teams have to make due and so do I.
Let's get into my predictions for the top 32 picks in the draft, which begins April 29. As I've said before, the New York Jets have several options with the No. 2 pick, and I expect stiff competition from teams trying to move up to that spot. I have a trade that I think works for both teams. Check out our SportsCenter Special: Mel Kiper's NFL Mock Draft 2.0 at 5 p.m. ET today on ESPN2 and the ESPN app. Here we go:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Don't overthink this. Lawrence is the best quarterback in this class, a player with superstar potential around whom new coach Urban Meyer can build. The Jaguars can add help for Lawrence in what is expected to be one of the most talented free-agent classes ever -- they are projected to have nearly $80 million in cap space. Lawrence could use some targets to throw to, and the defense has holes to fill as well. Jacksonville also has the No. 25 overall pick from the Jalen Ramsey trade along with the Vikings' second-rounder from the Yannick Ngakoue trade. Lawrence had surgery on his left shoulder last week, and he should be ready for training camp.
Trade: Atlanta moves up to get the No. 2 QB
OK, here we go. The Falcons make a deal to get their quarterback. My comp for the deal is the Bears' trading up for Mitchell Trubisky in 2017. To move up one spot and get the No. 2 pick, Chicago gave up pick Nos. 3, 67, 111 and a third-rounder the following year.
So for Atlanta to move up two spots, it's going to have to send the Jets the No. 4 pick, likely its second-round picks this year and more picks. That's a lot to give up, sure, but there is going to be competition. The Jets should take the best deal on the table, and this one means they only drop two spots and pick up prime assets after that.
2. Atlanta Falcons (via mock trade with NYJ)
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
This is the Falcons' chance to reboot. Matt Ryan has started 205 games for the franchise since he was drafted third overall in 2008, but he turns 36 in May. Trading up to get Wilson would help sort the future under new coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot. Remember, if you're Smith and Fontenot, you don't expect to be drafting this high, so you never know when you're going to have a chance on a quarterback like Wilson. They have to get their guy now. Ryan would likely remain the starter in 2021 while Wilson adjusts to the pro game. He could take over in 2022. Ohio State's Justin Fields could be in play, too, but I see Wilson as the ideal option for the Falcons.
3. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Let's reunite the Heisman Trophy winner with his former quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa completed 83 passes for 1,519 yards and 18 touchdowns to Smith from 2017-19. Miami needs to upgrade its wide receiver corps. This is a perfect fit with Smith playing alongside DeVante Parker. I have Smith just ahead of LSU's Ja'Marr Chase in my rankings, but it's tight.
4. New York Jets (via mock trade with ATL)
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
So the Jets move down, add priority picks and end up with one of the best players in this class. I still believe they're better off giving Sam Darnold another year and improving the talent around their quarterback. The 23-year-old is too talented to give up on. Darnold has never had a pass-catcher like Pitts, either. The 6-foot-6 Pitts can line out wide and in the slot, and I'd target him like a No. 1 wide receiver. As I mentioned on the First Draft podcast, he is going to end up as my highest-graded tight end ever. He's also extremely young -- he was born in 2000 and will be 20 when he plays in Week 1. By the way, since the common draft era began in 1967, there has never been a tight end go this high. Pitts could be the first.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
No team in the top 10 has a clearer need than the Bengals' hole at tackle. They have to keep quarterback Joe Burrow on his feet. Sewell, who opted out of the 2020 season, is my No. 2 prospect overall. The 2019 Outland Trophy winner has everything teams want in a franchise left tackle. Even though he didn't play last season, his tape from the previous two years is enough to make him the top tackle in this class. Cincinnati could get a 10-year starter.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
After trading away Carson Wentz, 2020 second-round pick Jalen Hurts tops the Eagles' quarterback depth chart. And my feeling is that he has earned a chance to start in Week 1 next season and try to be Philly's long-term answer, even though he completed just 52% of his passes last season. The Eagles have major salary-cap issues, and this is not going to be a one-year rebuild for new coach Nick Sirianni. I wouldn't be surprised if they're picking in the top 10 next year as well. Drafting Chase here will allow a better evaluation of Hurts in 2021; he's a true No. 1 wideout with a high ceiling. After opting out of the 2020 season, Chase will get a chance to work out for teams at LSU's pro day on March 31, and there's a chance he could wow scouts and coaches there and end up as the No. 1 receiver in this class.
Trade: San Francisco shakes up the draft
Another trade, and this one could cost the 49ers a lot of capital. It's tough to project the exact details, but moving up five spots in a talented quarterback class means there will be competition. We can look to the Mitchell Trubisky trade as one comp, but another could be the Steelers' move for Devin Bush in 2019, where they jumped 10 spots with the Broncos and had to give up the Nos. 20 and 52 picks, plus a third-round pick the following year.
Yes, it's 10 spots, but the Lions should expect a similar return. That would mean they'd get pick No. 12, the 49ers' second-rounder this year and a future pick, though San Francisco doesn't have a third-round selection because of its trade for Trent Williams last year. I wouldn't be shocked, though, if the 49ers had to give up their 2022 first-round pick to get it done.
The 49ers would get their quarterback. Detroit is rebuilding and needs premium picks to add talent across its roster, and it already has the Rams' first-rounders in 2022 and 2023 and their third-rounder this year. This is a win-win deal for both sides.
7. San Francisco 49ers (via mock trade with DET)
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
This is a pick that raises the 49ers' ceiling. When they went to the Super Bowl in 2019, they were led by a stellar running game and defense that could both rush the passer and create turnovers. It didn't appear that coach Kyle Shanahan fully trusted Jimmy Garoppolo to win playoff games with his arm. I'd love to see Fields play for Shanahan, who could get the best out of him. If this deal happens, San Francisco could designate Garoppolo as a post-June 1 release and save $25 million on its cap this year. That would help offset the lost draft picks in the trade because the team would have some money to spend in free agency -- and bring back left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers were really hurt by injuries last season, but they should be back in the NFC West race in 2021.
8. Carolina Panthers
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
We know the Panthers offered this pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, and it appears Matt Rhule & Co. are maneuvering to make a play for Deshaun Watson -- if the Texans decide to honor his request and trade him. The team clearly isn't satisfied with Teddy Bridgewater and wants to upgrade. So let's assume Carolina can't pry away Watson and instead looks to the draft. I have Jones just ahead of North Dakota State's Trey Lance in my rankings, but a lot will depend on their interviews with teams leading up to the draft. Jones, who showed tremendous downfield accuracy last season, is more ready to play in 2021, though, and the Panthers have the talent on offense to help him succeed.
Trade: The Pats snag their franchise QB
One more trade, again for a quarterback. And that makes five QBs in the top nine picks. To move up six spots, we can keep the comp of the Devin Bush trade. The Patriots would have to send the Broncos at least the No. 15 pick, a second-round pick and a 2022 pick. And I wouldn't be shocked if it took the Pats' 2022 first-rounder to get the deal over the finish line. New England also is expected to add premium compensatory picks for this class, so it could have more ammo to use.
Bill Belichick is known more for trading down in drafts, but the Patriots traded up a couple of times on Day 2 last year to get guys they wanted in Josh Uche and Devin Asiasi. Don't rule out a big move if Belichick & Co. want to get their quarterback of the future.
9. New England Patriots (via mock trade with DEN)
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Belichick and the Patriots have been quiet this offseason, but that should change soon. They have money to spend in free agency, and they need to find a quarterback. It doesn't appear likely that Cam Newton will return. The veteran QB trade market has dwindled. I could see a Jimmy Garoppolo return to New England, but I'm not sold that he'd be the long-term answer. Lance could be. He started only 17 career games in college -- all against FCS competition -- but he's only 20, and he has all the tools to be a great dual-threat quarterback. Remember that the Patriots have a few players returning after opting out of last season, too, so they could contend in the AFC East again.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
I was down to offensive line or cornerback for Dallas, and with Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis likely to leave in free agency, I see corner as the bigger need. The Cowboys were terrible on defense last season, and new coordinator Dan Quinn has a ways to go to turn it around. Surtain on one side with former Alabama teammate Trevon Diggs on the other is a great way to start. The Dak Prescott decision looms large on the Cowboys' offseason, but I expect him to get franchise tagged or sign a long-term deal.
11. New York Giants
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Can the Giants get Daniel Jones a No. 1 receiver? He has had Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and tight end Evan Engram as his top targets the past two seasons, and they've struggled with inconsistency and staying on the field. Now is the time to get a full evaluation of Jones. If they don't wade into the free-agent waters, Waddle is the best option at No. 11. He is the top deep threat in this class and is electric with the ball in his hands.
12. Detroit Lions (via mock trade with SF)
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
With the Lions moving down in my mock trade with the 49ers, that takes them out of the quarterback race but gives them extra draft capital. Jared Goff was always going to be on their roster in 2021 because of his salary, but he might not be the long-term solution. And I don't expect Detroit to improve next season, which means it could have another valuable pick (plus it has the Rams' first-round picks in 2022 and 2023). The Lions allowed 6.3 yards per play under former coach Matt Patricia last season, which ranked last in the league. They need help on defense. Parsons is a versatile linebacker with some pass-rush upside.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Like the Bengals at No. 5, I don't see the Chargers going away from offensive line with their top pick. L.A.'s four-game winning streak to end the season cost the franchise valuable draft positioning (and coach Anthony Lynn was still let go), but it can get a starting lineman here. I like Slater, who opted out of the 2020 season, as a tackle -- he didn't give up any sacks playing there in 2019 -- but he could play guard, too.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
I'll stick with Vera-Tucker here because of his versatility. He played guard before moving to left tackle for USC last season. He impressed there and rocketed up draft boards. I think he'll probably stick at tackle in the NFL. We know coach Mike Zimmer will always push for the Vikings to draft a defender, and this could also be a spot for a pass-rusher or defensive back.
15. Denver Broncos (via mock trade with NE)
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Like I told my pal Jeff Legwold last week, cornerback is the position I'd target for Denver. And I'd even feel comfortable taking Farley at No. 9 if the Broncos don't trade back, so this is good value. He showed in 2019 that he can be an elite, lockdown corner, though I would like to have seen one more year of film (he opted out of the 2020 season). He's still raw. The Broncos could part ways with both safety Justin Simmons (free agency) and edge rusher Von Miller (cap casualty) this offseason, so they need to boost their talent on defense under Vic Fangio.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
With longtime star Patrick Peterson likely gone in free agency, corner is a clear void for the Cardinals, who struggled down the stretch last season after starting 5-2. Their defense should get a boost with the return of pass-rusher Chandler Jones from injury, but they need more talent in the secondary. Horn is not a ball hawk, but the instincts are there. He is around the ball more than the stat sheet shows -- he had only two interceptions over three seasons at South Carolina. Offensive line and wide receiver are two other positions Arizona could look toward.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
The Raiders have used first-round picks on safeties twice in recent years, first in 2014 on Karl Joseph and then in 2019 on Johnathan Abram. Joseph didn't work out, and Abram has played only 14 games the past two seasons, but both are box safeties with limitations in coverage. Moehrig is a more fluid athlete who can play as a deep safety. He has some range. He's also not afraid to stick his head in and make a tackle. Vegas could also go with an edge rusher with this pick.
18. Miami Dolphins
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
I'm interested to see what Miami does in free agency. With a deep class of free-agent receivers, it's possible this team could find its No. 1 wideout there instead of using the No. 3 pick on one. In that case, I'd still suggest drafting a receiver with one of these picks and thinking defense with the other. I mocked Owusu-Koramoah to the Dolphins in January; he could be an instant starter with Elandon Roberts and Kamu Grugier-Hill hitting free agency. General manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores have built a solid foundation -- this is an ascending team.
19. Washington Football Team
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
What's Washington going to do at quarterback? I don't have one on the board this late with a Round 1 grade. If we assume Washington will figure that out before the draft -- free agency starts in less than three weeks -- that makes this pick easier. This team already has a young, talented defense, but it could address the offensive line, particularly if guard Brandon Scherff leaves next month. Darrisaw had a fantastic season, excelling as a run- and pass-blocker. He could play either tackle spot. In a rare deep tackle class, Washington could get a Day 1 starter here.
20. Chicago Bears
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
This is another team with a big quarterback question. The Bears made the playoffs (at 8-8) with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles under center, but they reportedly were in the Carson Wentz sweepstakes. With Trubisky a free agent and not expected to return, are they now going to stick with Foles? Regardless, I don't see a quarterback for them here, but they can add Toney, a playmaker who will help as a receiver, runner and return man. Get the ball in his hands and get out of the way. Chicago could also get in on the tackle class and draft a successor for Charles Leno and Bobbie Massie.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
The Colts would probably love to get a tackle to replace the retired Anthony Costanzo, but I don't see a great fit based on my rankings. (They could solve the issue by kicking All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson outside.) Instead they can address their pass rush and get younger with Justin Houston likely leaving in free agency. Rousseau, who opted out of the 2020 season, had 15.5 sacks in 2019, though he's still raw. I'm interested in seeing his testing numbers at his pro day next month. Indianapolis should have a few options to take its preferred edge rusher here because the class lacks elite prospects.
22. Tennessee Titans
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
As I mentioned in my Mock 1.0, the Titans have to be all over the edge rushers in this class. Their defense really lacked any pass rush last season, getting virtually nothing from Jadeveon Clowney and finishing with just 19 total sacks. They'd be happy with Phillips still on the board. The UCLA transfer and former five-star prospect really came on last season and is rising quickly. Phillips had concussion issues at UCLA, so his medical checks will be important. But I love his 2020 tape. And yes, this is back-to-back Miami pass-rushers, but Rousseau and Phillips never got to play together because Phillips missed the 2019 season due to transfer rules.
23. New York Jets (from SEA)
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
I went with a tight end to the Jets with their first pick, and this pick could be for the best defensive prospect available. Robert Saleh's defense could use help at all levels. Paye is next up on my board. He had only 11.5 career sacks at Michigan, but he has athletic traits that NFL teams crave, which should push him into Round 1. You won't find many 270-pound defensive ends who can move like him.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama
The Steelers have major cap issues and a long list of free agents that includes edge rusher Bud Dupree, wide receiver JuJu-Smith Schuster and tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Zach Banner, so their needs will be clearer once we get through free agency. But a center makes sense because of Maurkice Pouncey's retirement -- Dickerson could be an immediate replacement. I really like his game. The Florida State transfer injured his knee in the SEC title game and didn't play in the College Football Playoff, but the Alabama coaches rave about him on and off the field. He can be the anchor the Steelers need.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
I pegged Barmore to the Jags in my Mock 1.0 as well, though I thought about a wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence. LSU's Terrace Marshall Jr. is still available. Barmore was tremendous down the stretch for the Crimson Tide and could slot in as an upgrade in the middle of new coordinator Joe Cullen's defense. The secondary is another position to watch for Jacksonville.
26. Cleveland Browns
Zaven Collins, OLB/DE, Tulsa
The Browns have a few defensive starters hitting free agency, including defensive lineman Olivier Vernon and Larry Ogunjobi and linebacker B.J. Goodson. Collins could be used as a versatile player to exploit mismatches. At 260 pounds, he could put his hand in the dirt and rush the passer, or he could play outside linebacker, fill run fits and even cover running backs out of the flat. He stuffed the statsheet on the way to winning the Nagurski Award last season, with four sacks, four interceptions (two pick-sixes) and two forced fumbles. Cleveland could also be in the market for corners or wideouts, depending on how free agency shakes out.
27. Baltimore Ravens
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
This is another pick that stays the same from my mock draft in January, and it's because Marshall fits what the Ravens are looking for in a wide receiver. They need a bigger target who can pick up first downs and score in the red zone. At 6-3, Marshall had 10 scores in seven games last season. If Baltimore has some more size to help Lamar Jackson on intermediate throws, they can better stretch the field with Marquise Brown. As I mentioned before, this offense had the fewest passing attempts, passing yards and passing first downs in the league last season. There is a lot of room for improvement.
28. New Orleans Saints
Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State
Yes, I'm projecting an edge rusher in Round 1 who had zero sacks last season. But turn on the tape. He pressured quarterbacks even if he didn't close on them. And this is all about what I'm hearing Oweh is going to do at his pro day on March 25. There is a lot of buzz that he's going to run a 4.4 40-yard dash at 255 pounds and wow coaches and scouts with his testing numbers. He is an extraordinary athlete with room to grow into a great player. Oweh made my preseason list of Big Ten prospects to monitor, and even though he didn't put it all together, he has a high ceiling. The Saints, meanwhile, could lose Trey Hendrickson in free agency, creating a hole at defensive end.
29. Green Bay Packers
Joe Tryon, OLB/DE, Washington
I thought about a cornerback like Kentucky's Kelvin Joseph for the Packers, but they also could use an edge rusher, particularly if Preston Smith is a cap casualty. Tryon would be perfect for Green Bay's 3-4 defense under new coordinator Joe Barry. Another opt-out of last season, Tryon had eight sacks in 2019. He needs to refine his pass-rushing moves, but he can bend around offensive tackles as a rusher and also set the edge in the run game. This could also be the spot to finally get Aaron Rodgers a Round 1 receiver.
30. Buffalo Bills
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
This pick could depend on whether free-agent right tackle Daryl Williams returns and whether the Bills think former second-round pick Cody Ford could kick out to tackle. If they view him as a guard, tackle becomes an hole to fill. Jenkins played on both the left and right sides at Oklahoma State. I could see Buffalo targeting a cornerback if a guy the organization likes makes it to No. 30, and I think running back should be an option as well. This is a team that is close to being a Super Bowl contender.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Walker Little, OT, Stanford
This might be a new name for some, but Little made my preseason Big Board all the way back in August of 2019. That was ahead of the 2020 draft. Then he injured his knee in the season opener and missed the rest of that season and opted out of 2020, so he hasn't played much football since. I called Little more of a finesse tackle in 2019, but he has a great frame (6--7, 315 pounds) and can move his feet. He started as a true freshman at Stanford. There is some projection here, but Little has some great tape from 2017 and 2018. Scouts will be able to see him up close at his pro day next month. And if you watched Patrick Mahomes run for his life in Super Bowl LV, you know the Chiefs could use a tackle.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Azeez Ojulari, OLB/DE, Georgia
With Tryon off the board to the Packers, Ojulari is the next pass-rusher in my rankings. And with the uncertainty around whether free-agent defensive end Shaq Barrett will return, it makes sense for the Bucs to get younger on the edge. Ojulari had 8.5 sacks last season, including three in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl win. He has some versatility to move around the defense, but he's one of the top pure pass-rushers in this class. Wide receiver is a position to watch for Tampa, particularly if it doesn't bring back Chris Godwin, who is a free agent.
Mel Kiper Jr.Football analyst
My second mock for the 2021 NFL draft includes a first. This is the first time in my history of doing mock drafts that I'm going to project trades in my projection of picks 1-32.
I've always stayed away because it's impossible to know how teams will maneuver -- and what offers they could get -- but this quarterback class is too good. I wanted to find fits for the top five in the class. So after I waived the no-trades clause for Todd McShay's latest mock draft, I figured it was time to make a few deals myself. You'll find explanations for all three of my deals below.
Normally at this time we'd be headed to the NFL combine to watch prospects compete. Now we'll settle for the testing numbers at pro days. It's a unique year, but all 32 teams have to make due and so do I.
Let's get into my predictions for the top 32 picks in the draft, which begins April 29. As I've said before, the New York Jets have several options with the No. 2 pick, and I expect stiff competition from teams trying to move up to that spot. I have a trade that I think works for both teams. Check out our SportsCenter Special: Mel Kiper's NFL Mock Draft 2.0 at 5 p.m. ET today on ESPN2 and the ESPN app. Here we go:
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Don't overthink this. Lawrence is the best quarterback in this class, a player with superstar potential around whom new coach Urban Meyer can build. The Jaguars can add help for Lawrence in what is expected to be one of the most talented free-agent classes ever -- they are projected to have nearly $80 million in cap space. Lawrence could use some targets to throw to, and the defense has holes to fill as well. Jacksonville also has the No. 25 overall pick from the Jalen Ramsey trade along with the Vikings' second-rounder from the Yannick Ngakoue trade. Lawrence had surgery on his left shoulder last week, and he should be ready for training camp.
Trade: Atlanta moves up to get the No. 2 QB
OK, here we go. The Falcons make a deal to get their quarterback. My comp for the deal is the Bears' trading up for Mitchell Trubisky in 2017. To move up one spot and get the No. 2 pick, Chicago gave up pick Nos. 3, 67, 111 and a third-rounder the following year.
So for Atlanta to move up two spots, it's going to have to send the Jets the No. 4 pick, likely its second-round picks this year and more picks. That's a lot to give up, sure, but there is going to be competition. The Jets should take the best deal on the table, and this one means they only drop two spots and pick up prime assets after that.
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
This is the Falcons' chance to reboot. Matt Ryan has started 205 games for the franchise since he was drafted third overall in 2008, but he turns 36 in May. Trading up to get Wilson would help sort the future under new coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot. Remember, if you're Smith and Fontenot, you don't expect to be drafting this high, so you never know when you're going to have a chance on a quarterback like Wilson. They have to get their guy now. Ryan would likely remain the starter in 2021 while Wilson adjusts to the pro game. He could take over in 2022. Ohio State's Justin Fields could be in play, too, but I see Wilson as the ideal option for the Falcons.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Let's reunite the Heisman Trophy winner with his former quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa completed 83 passes for 1,519 yards and 18 touchdowns to Smith from 2017-19. Miami needs to upgrade its wide receiver corps. This is a perfect fit with Smith playing alongside DeVante Parker. I have Smith just ahead of LSU's Ja'Marr Chase in my rankings, but it's tight.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
So the Jets move down, add priority picks and end up with one of the best players in this class. I still believe they're better off giving Sam Darnold another year and improving the talent around their quarterback. The 23-year-old is too talented to give up on. Darnold has never had a pass-catcher like Pitts, either. The 6-foot-6 Pitts can line out wide and in the slot, and I'd target him like a No. 1 wide receiver. As I mentioned on the First Draft podcast, he is going to end up as my highest-graded tight end ever. He's also extremely young -- he was born in 2000 and will be 20 when he plays in Week 1. By the way, since the common draft era began in 1967, there has never been a tight end go this high. Pitts could be the first.
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
No team in the top 10 has a clearer need than the Bengals' hole at tackle. They have to keep quarterback Joe Burrow on his feet. Sewell, who opted out of the 2020 season, is my No. 2 prospect overall. The 2019 Outland Trophy winner has everything teams want in a franchise left tackle. Even though he didn't play last season, his tape from the previous two years is enough to make him the top tackle in this class. Cincinnati could get a 10-year starter.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
After trading away Carson Wentz, 2020 second-round pick Jalen Hurts tops the Eagles' quarterback depth chart. And my feeling is that he has earned a chance to start in Week 1 next season and try to be Philly's long-term answer, even though he completed just 52% of his passes last season. The Eagles have major salary-cap issues, and this is not going to be a one-year rebuild for new coach Nick Sirianni. I wouldn't be surprised if they're picking in the top 10 next year as well. Drafting Chase here will allow a better evaluation of Hurts in 2021; he's a true No. 1 wideout with a high ceiling. After opting out of the 2020 season, Chase will get a chance to work out for teams at LSU's pro day on March 31, and there's a chance he could wow scouts and coaches there and end up as the No. 1 receiver in this class.
Trade: San Francisco shakes up the draft
Another trade, and this one could cost the 49ers a lot of capital. It's tough to project the exact details, but moving up five spots in a talented quarterback class means there will be competition. We can look to the Mitchell Trubisky trade as one comp, but another could be the Steelers' move for Devin Bush in 2019, where they jumped 10 spots with the Broncos and had to give up the Nos. 20 and 52 picks, plus a third-round pick the following year.
Yes, it's 10 spots, but the Lions should expect a similar return. That would mean they'd get pick No. 12, the 49ers' second-rounder this year and a future pick, though San Francisco doesn't have a third-round selection because of its trade for Trent Williams last year. I wouldn't be shocked, though, if the 49ers had to give up their 2022 first-round pick to get it done.
The 49ers would get their quarterback. Detroit is rebuilding and needs premium picks to add talent across its roster, and it already has the Rams' first-rounders in 2022 and 2023 and their third-rounder this year. This is a win-win deal for both sides.
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
This is a pick that raises the 49ers' ceiling. When they went to the Super Bowl in 2019, they were led by a stellar running game and defense that could both rush the passer and create turnovers. It didn't appear that coach Kyle Shanahan fully trusted Jimmy Garoppolo to win playoff games with his arm. I'd love to see Fields play for Shanahan, who could get the best out of him. If this deal happens, San Francisco could designate Garoppolo as a post-June 1 release and save $25 million on its cap this year. That would help offset the lost draft picks in the trade because the team would have some money to spend in free agency -- and bring back left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers were really hurt by injuries last season, but they should be back in the NFC West race in 2021.
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
We know the Panthers offered this pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, and it appears Matt Rhule & Co. are maneuvering to make a play for Deshaun Watson -- if the Texans decide to honor his request and trade him. The team clearly isn't satisfied with Teddy Bridgewater and wants to upgrade. So let's assume Carolina can't pry away Watson and instead looks to the draft. I have Jones just ahead of North Dakota State's Trey Lance in my rankings, but a lot will depend on their interviews with teams leading up to the draft. Jones, who showed tremendous downfield accuracy last season, is more ready to play in 2021, though, and the Panthers have the talent on offense to help him succeed.
Trade: The Pats snag their franchise QB
One more trade, again for a quarterback. And that makes five QBs in the top nine picks. To move up six spots, we can keep the comp of the Devin Bush trade. The Patriots would have to send the Broncos at least the No. 15 pick, a second-round pick and a 2022 pick. And I wouldn't be shocked if it took the Pats' 2022 first-rounder to get the deal over the finish line. New England also is expected to add premium compensatory picks for this class, so it could have more ammo to use.
Bill Belichick is known more for trading down in drafts, but the Patriots traded up a couple of times on Day 2 last year to get guys they wanted in Josh Uche and Devin Asiasi. Don't rule out a big move if Belichick & Co. want to get their quarterback of the future.
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Belichick and the Patriots have been quiet this offseason, but that should change soon. They have money to spend in free agency, and they need to find a quarterback. It doesn't appear likely that Cam Newton will return. The veteran QB trade market has dwindled. I could see a Jimmy Garoppolo return to New England, but I'm not sold that he'd be the long-term answer. Lance could be. He started only 17 career games in college -- all against FCS competition -- but he's only 20, and he has all the tools to be a great dual-threat quarterback. Remember that the Patriots have a few players returning after opting out of last season, too, so they could contend in the AFC East again.
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
I was down to offensive line or cornerback for Dallas, and with Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis likely to leave in free agency, I see corner as the bigger need. The Cowboys were terrible on defense last season, and new coordinator Dan Quinn has a ways to go to turn it around. Surtain on one side with former Alabama teammate Trevon Diggs on the other is a great way to start. The Dak Prescott decision looms large on the Cowboys' offseason, but I expect him to get franchise tagged or sign a long-term deal.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Can the Giants get Daniel Jones a No. 1 receiver? He has had Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and tight end Evan Engram as his top targets the past two seasons, and they've struggled with inconsistency and staying on the field. Now is the time to get a full evaluation of Jones. If they don't wade into the free-agent waters, Waddle is the best option at No. 11. He is the top deep threat in this class and is electric with the ball in his hands.
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
With the Lions moving down in my mock trade with the 49ers, that takes them out of the quarterback race but gives them extra draft capital. Jared Goff was always going to be on their roster in 2021 because of his salary, but he might not be the long-term solution. And I don't expect Detroit to improve next season, which means it could have another valuable pick (plus it has the Rams' first-round picks in 2022 and 2023). The Lions allowed 6.3 yards per play under former coach Matt Patricia last season, which ranked last in the league. They need help on defense. Parsons is a versatile linebacker with some pass-rush upside.
Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
Like the Bengals at No. 5, I don't see the Chargers going away from offensive line with their top pick. L.A.'s four-game winning streak to end the season cost the franchise valuable draft positioning (and coach Anthony Lynn was still let go), but it can get a starting lineman here. I like Slater, who opted out of the 2020 season, as a tackle -- he didn't give up any sacks playing there in 2019 -- but he could play guard, too.
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
I'll stick with Vera-Tucker here because of his versatility. He played guard before moving to left tackle for USC last season. He impressed there and rocketed up draft boards. I think he'll probably stick at tackle in the NFL. We know coach Mike Zimmer will always push for the Vikings to draft a defender, and this could also be a spot for a pass-rusher or defensive back.
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Like I told my pal Jeff Legwold last week, cornerback is the position I'd target for Denver. And I'd even feel comfortable taking Farley at No. 9 if the Broncos don't trade back, so this is good value. He showed in 2019 that he can be an elite, lockdown corner, though I would like to have seen one more year of film (he opted out of the 2020 season). He's still raw. The Broncos could part ways with both safety Justin Simmons (free agency) and edge rusher Von Miller (cap casualty) this offseason, so they need to boost their talent on defense under Vic Fangio.
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
With longtime star Patrick Peterson likely gone in free agency, corner is a clear void for the Cardinals, who struggled down the stretch last season after starting 5-2. Their defense should get a boost with the return of pass-rusher Chandler Jones from injury, but they need more talent in the secondary. Horn is not a ball hawk, but the instincts are there. He is around the ball more than the stat sheet shows -- he had only two interceptions over three seasons at South Carolina. Offensive line and wide receiver are two other positions Arizona could look toward.
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
The Raiders have used first-round picks on safeties twice in recent years, first in 2014 on Karl Joseph and then in 2019 on Johnathan Abram. Joseph didn't work out, and Abram has played only 14 games the past two seasons, but both are box safeties with limitations in coverage. Moehrig is a more fluid athlete who can play as a deep safety. He has some range. He's also not afraid to stick his head in and make a tackle. Vegas could also go with an edge rusher with this pick.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
I'm interested to see what Miami does in free agency. With a deep class of free-agent receivers, it's possible this team could find its No. 1 wideout there instead of using the No. 3 pick on one. In that case, I'd still suggest drafting a receiver with one of these picks and thinking defense with the other. I mocked Owusu-Koramoah to the Dolphins in January; he could be an instant starter with Elandon Roberts and Kamu Grugier-Hill hitting free agency. General manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores have built a solid foundation -- this is an ascending team.
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
What's Washington going to do at quarterback? I don't have one on the board this late with a Round 1 grade. If we assume Washington will figure that out before the draft -- free agency starts in less than three weeks -- that makes this pick easier. This team already has a young, talented defense, but it could address the offensive line, particularly if guard Brandon Scherff leaves next month. Darrisaw had a fantastic season, excelling as a run- and pass-blocker. He could play either tackle spot. In a rare deep tackle class, Washington could get a Day 1 starter here.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
This is another team with a big quarterback question. The Bears made the playoffs (at 8-8) with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles under center, but they reportedly were in the Carson Wentz sweepstakes. With Trubisky a free agent and not expected to return, are they now going to stick with Foles? Regardless, I don't see a quarterback for them here, but they can add Toney, a playmaker who will help as a receiver, runner and return man. Get the ball in his hands and get out of the way. Chicago could also get in on the tackle class and draft a successor for Charles Leno and Bobbie Massie.
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
The Colts would probably love to get a tackle to replace the retired Anthony Costanzo, but I don't see a great fit based on my rankings. (They could solve the issue by kicking All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson outside.) Instead they can address their pass rush and get younger with Justin Houston likely leaving in free agency. Rousseau, who opted out of the 2020 season, had 15.5 sacks in 2019, though he's still raw. I'm interested in seeing his testing numbers at his pro day next month. Indianapolis should have a few options to take its preferred edge rusher here because the class lacks elite prospects.
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
As I mentioned in my Mock 1.0, the Titans have to be all over the edge rushers in this class. Their defense really lacked any pass rush last season, getting virtually nothing from Jadeveon Clowney and finishing with just 19 total sacks. They'd be happy with Phillips still on the board. The UCLA transfer and former five-star prospect really came on last season and is rising quickly. Phillips had concussion issues at UCLA, so his medical checks will be important. But I love his 2020 tape. And yes, this is back-to-back Miami pass-rushers, but Rousseau and Phillips never got to play together because Phillips missed the 2019 season due to transfer rules.
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
I went with a tight end to the Jets with their first pick, and this pick could be for the best defensive prospect available. Robert Saleh's defense could use help at all levels. Paye is next up on my board. He had only 11.5 career sacks at Michigan, but he has athletic traits that NFL teams crave, which should push him into Round 1. You won't find many 270-pound defensive ends who can move like him.
Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama
The Steelers have major cap issues and a long list of free agents that includes edge rusher Bud Dupree, wide receiver JuJu-Smith Schuster and tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Zach Banner, so their needs will be clearer once we get through free agency. But a center makes sense because of Maurkice Pouncey's retirement -- Dickerson could be an immediate replacement. I really like his game. The Florida State transfer injured his knee in the SEC title game and didn't play in the College Football Playoff, but the Alabama coaches rave about him on and off the field. He can be the anchor the Steelers need.
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
I pegged Barmore to the Jags in my Mock 1.0 as well, though I thought about a wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence. LSU's Terrace Marshall Jr. is still available. Barmore was tremendous down the stretch for the Crimson Tide and could slot in as an upgrade in the middle of new coordinator Joe Cullen's defense. The secondary is another position to watch for Jacksonville.
Zaven Collins, OLB/DE, Tulsa
The Browns have a few defensive starters hitting free agency, including defensive lineman Olivier Vernon and Larry Ogunjobi and linebacker B.J. Goodson. Collins could be used as a versatile player to exploit mismatches. At 260 pounds, he could put his hand in the dirt and rush the passer, or he could play outside linebacker, fill run fits and even cover running backs out of the flat. He stuffed the statsheet on the way to winning the Nagurski Award last season, with four sacks, four interceptions (two pick-sixes) and two forced fumbles. Cleveland could also be in the market for corners or wideouts, depending on how free agency shakes out.
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
This is another pick that stays the same from my mock draft in January, and it's because Marshall fits what the Ravens are looking for in a wide receiver. They need a bigger target who can pick up first downs and score in the red zone. At 6-3, Marshall had 10 scores in seven games last season. If Baltimore has some more size to help Lamar Jackson on intermediate throws, they can better stretch the field with Marquise Brown. As I mentioned before, this offense had the fewest passing attempts, passing yards and passing first downs in the league last season. There is a lot of room for improvement.
Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State
Yes, I'm projecting an edge rusher in Round 1 who had zero sacks last season. But turn on the tape. He pressured quarterbacks even if he didn't close on them. And this is all about what I'm hearing Oweh is going to do at his pro day on March 25. There is a lot of buzz that he's going to run a 4.4 40-yard dash at 255 pounds and wow coaches and scouts with his testing numbers. He is an extraordinary athlete with room to grow into a great player. Oweh made my preseason list of Big Ten prospects to monitor, and even though he didn't put it all together, he has a high ceiling. The Saints, meanwhile, could lose Trey Hendrickson in free agency, creating a hole at defensive end.
Joe Tryon, OLB/DE, Washington
I thought about a cornerback like Kentucky's Kelvin Joseph for the Packers, but they also could use an edge rusher, particularly if Preston Smith is a cap casualty. Tryon would be perfect for Green Bay's 3-4 defense under new coordinator Joe Barry. Another opt-out of last season, Tryon had eight sacks in 2019. He needs to refine his pass-rushing moves, but he can bend around offensive tackles as a rusher and also set the edge in the run game. This could also be the spot to finally get Aaron Rodgers a Round 1 receiver.
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
This pick could depend on whether free-agent right tackle Daryl Williams returns and whether the Bills think former second-round pick Cody Ford could kick out to tackle. If they view him as a guard, tackle becomes an hole to fill. Jenkins played on both the left and right sides at Oklahoma State. I could see Buffalo targeting a cornerback if a guy the organization likes makes it to No. 30, and I think running back should be an option as well. This is a team that is close to being a Super Bowl contender.
Walker Little, OT, Stanford
This might be a new name for some, but Little made my preseason Big Board all the way back in August of 2019. That was ahead of the 2020 draft. Then he injured his knee in the season opener and missed the rest of that season and opted out of 2020, so he hasn't played much football since. I called Little more of a finesse tackle in 2019, but he has a great frame (6--7, 315 pounds) and can move his feet. He started as a true freshman at Stanford. There is some projection here, but Little has some great tape from 2017 and 2018. Scouts will be able to see him up close at his pro day next month. And if you watched Patrick Mahomes run for his life in Super Bowl LV, you know the Chiefs could use a tackle.
Azeez Ojulari, OLB/DE, Georgia
With Tryon off the board to the Packers, Ojulari is the next pass-rusher in my rankings. And with the uncertainty around whether free-agent defensive end Shaq Barrett will return, it makes sense for the Bucs to get younger on the edge. Ojulari had 8.5 sacks last season, including three in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl win. He has some versatility to move around the defense, but he's one of the top pure pass-rushers in this class. Wide receiver is a position to watch for Tampa, particularly if it doesn't bring back Chris Godwin, who is a free agent.
ravidubey
DCC 4Life
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Lots of teams like this kid. They feel his accuracy made Smith even better at least as much as the reverse. Maybe it's teams blowing smoke, but when you take a good look what's not to like about Jones?
bbgun
please don't "dur" me
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looks like an AJ McCarron clone to me (steady but unspectacular)
Chocolate Lab
Mere Commoner
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Same thing that got Tua -- insane talent around him makes him look far better than he actually is.
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Yeah easy to look accurate when your receivers get insane separation. Alabama QBs worry me. I'm not sure there is much real difference between Trask and Jones.
ravidubey
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I like Trask
shoop
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Reminds me of USC 15-20 years ago
Plan9Misfit
Appreciate The Hate
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I was about to say the same thing. Matt Leinart looked like an absolute world beater.
ravidubey
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That’s true. He did end up being the 10th pick or so...
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2021 NFL mock draft: Trade buzz! Jets make QB call, Broncos go first on defense
Chris Burke 2h ago
Putting together an NFL mock draft this time of year is always helpful, not just for the exercise itself but for what it reveals about each roster. If it makes sense to keep pairing a team with a cornerback or an offensive tackle, those positions figure to be high on the list when free agency opens, too. At the bare minimum, all of these mocks should help narrow a team’s needs.
Which is my way of saying that I know a lot of the picks made below will be proven wrong, but I’ve rationalized a way to forgive myself.
A little wrinkle to this rendition: A quick-hit look at whether each team is more likely to move up or down from its given spot (or spots) within Round 1. There’s going to be movement somewhere along the line — Mock 2.0 will fold in a few specific guesses as to where.
Away we go …
1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
More likely to trade up or down? Down. I know many of you will call me an idiot in the comments for this mock, but even I know the Jaguars can’t trade up from here.
Not that there was any doubt, but Lawrence’s pro day cemented his standing as the top available prospect, especially because he powered through it despite impending surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. The NFL machine loves nothing more than being able to hype a quarterback’s toughness.
2. New York Jets — Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
More likely to trade up or down? Down. In fact, there is a little momentum building for the Jets to roll with Sam Darnold, slide back to, say, No. 4 or No. 8 and see where that takes ‘em. If they’re not absolutely in love with Wilson, Justin Fields or Trey Lance, that should be the move.
No matter which team picks here, Wilson is the odds-on favorite to be QB2. His athleticism and ability to throw from all sorts of arm angles and platforms means he can make things happen, even if his offensive line isn’t up to par.
3. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) — Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Really the last spot where the trade up/down game has a fairly obvious answer. With the expected early run on quarterbacks, the Jets and Dolphins should field plenty of phone calls.
As much fun as it would be to reunite Tua Tagovailoa with DeVonta Smith, we can safely assume that Tagovailoa would enjoy throwing to Chase, too. Chase is a plug-and-play No. 1 receiver with immediate 1,000-yard potential; DeVante Parker, at 793 yards, topped Miami’s production last year.
4. Atlanta Falcons — Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
More likely to trade up or down? Up … ? Were aggressive former GM Thomas Dimitroff still calling the shots, it’d be natural to predict the Falcons climbing for their QB of the future. Will new general manager Terry Fontenot be as willing to roll the dice?
A lot of different ways this selection could go. But something about Lance sitting behind Matt Ryan for a year and soaking in an Arthur Smith offense feels right. Smith could unlock Lance’s full, dynamic skill set.
5. Cincinnati Bengals — Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
More likely to trade up or down? Down, primarily because it’s been two-plus decades since the Bengals traded up in Round 1. They don’t need a QB this year.
It’d be tempting to grab one of the playmaking weapons here with A.J. Green about to hit free agency. It should be more of a priority to build a stout O-line in front of Joe Burrow. Pairing Sewell with Jonah Williams could give Cincinnati its bookend tackles for years to come.
6. Philadelphia Eagles — Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Unless the Eagles are already all the way out on Jalen Hurts, the value for them is in stockpiling picks. They’re still in a good spot here to dangle a QB or an elite wide receiver to a team in need.
Pitts is special. He’s a “tight end” by designation but can do so much, from so many different alignments, to help an offense that he almost needs his own category. If new coach Nick Sirianni’s offense still looks like it did in Indianapolis, he’d take full advantage of Pitts’ talents.
7. Detroit Lions — Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Then maybe down again. The Lions lack high-end talent, but what first-year GM Brad Holmes really needs in 2021 and ‘22 is as many darts as he can throw.
This roster hasn’t had a lightning-bolt threat like Waddle since … uh … does a 28-year-old Reggie Bush count? Detroit’s offense has long been built around receivers who can stretch the field vertically. It hasn’t had guys who can threaten all levels sideline to sideline.
8. Carolina Panthers — Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
More likely to trade up or down? Up. It’s no secret that Carolina is willing to push all-in for a new quarterback — Dane Brugler had the Panthers trading up to No. 3 (for multiple first-rounders) in his last mock.
Without any trades here, the board falls in the Panthers’ favor (unless they prefer Wilson or Lance). Fields might take a bunch of sacks as a rookie as he adjusts to NFL speed, but the upside is enormous. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady certainly could make this work.
9. Denver Broncos — Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Down, barring a shift over the next few weeks toward needing a new quarterback of the future. There’s a decent chance that some other team out there would want to nab the first defensive player off the board.
For all the hype over a Chase-Smith-Waddle debate at receiver, the Surtain-Caleb Farley-Jaycee Horn pecking order will be huge in this range. Surtain is a 6-foot-2 defender whose NFL bloodlines — his dad was a three-time Pro Bowler — show up in how he works the nuances of his position.
10. Dallas Cowboys — Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
More likely to trade up or down? Down. An inverse of the Bengals, in that the Cowboys just don’t trade down much. But the board should still look rather favorable if they drop back a couple of spots.
The biggest swing, trade or not, would be predicting the Cowboys to select something other than a cornerback. It’s fortunate, though, when a position of need lines up with the board. Farley is another 6-2 defender with the speed to run and stay in phase against receivers outside.
11. New York Giants — Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
More likely to trade up or down? Up. GM Dave Gettleman sometimes seems like he’d rather let the clock run out on his selection than trade back. But moving the other way this year could land him a premier receiver.
I thought about offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and edge Azeez Ojulari here, but Parsons was too much of a value to pass up here. Give him a year or two to bank some more experience and the Penn State product could be a game-wrecking All-Pro on the second level.
12. San Francisco 49ers — Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
More likely to trade up or down? Up. You’ve probably already seen multiple mocks suggesting the 49ers jump into the top 10 for a quarterback. That buzz won’t die without a big move there ahead of the draft.
This is slightly contingent on left tackle Trent Williams exiting San Francisco. However, even if he sticks around, a significant selling point for Slater is his versatility. If the 49ers are one of the teams that views Slater as a top-10 pick — maybe even the best OT prospect — this would be a steal.
13. Los Angeles Chargers — Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Slater coming this close to No. 13 might change the thinking — this line is desperate for someone of that caliber — but trading down would give the Chargers multiple chances to cash in on this O-line class’ depth.
Wasn’t expecting to have an internal Horn vs. DeVonta Smith debate at 13. As mentioned, however, the opportunities should be there to nab multiple starting-caliber offensive linemen on Day 2. At this spot, the Chargers address another need with a sticky man-coverage option.
14. Minnesota Vikings — Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Up. Teams in this middle range, who missed the playoffs yet see themselves as a handful of players away from legitimate contention, are always trade-up favorites. Could Minnesota make a move on an OT?
It’s tough to play defense in this league without consistent interior pressure, which the Vikings did not have last season. Barmore would fix that. When he’s on — like he was during the College Football Playoff — he’s a nightmare up front.
15. New England Patriots — DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Up. How badly does Bill Belichick want to find his new franchise quarterback? It’s a long haul from No. 15 to the top seven or eight.
There are fits all over the place for Smith, plus teams that no doubt would be intrigued by the reigning Heisman winner falling into their lap. The floor has to be right around this range. Forget about Smith’s lack of prototypical size; his polished game is very NFL-ready.
16. Arizona Cardinals — Alijah Vera-Tucker, G/T, USC
More likely to trade up or down? Up. One can see why in this mock — the Cardinals just missed out on prospects like Horn and Smith, either of whom would be welcome fits.
Ojulari (who has a very strong case for being the top edge) slotted here until the J.J. Watt news broke. Vera-Tucker might have been a wiser investment anyway. He’s capable of starting inside or out, and the Cardinals have to make sure they keep Kyler Murray upright.
17. Las Vegas Raiders — Azeez Ojulari, edge, Georgia
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Tough call here, but I’m just not seeing a lot of prospects the Raiders would be desperate to go get. Better to fall back, if the opportunity arises, considering how close the grades figure to be on players in this range.
Elite edge players are so coveted, it’s hard to grasp the first one coming off the board just past the Round 1 halfway point. It could happen this year, though, because other positions are stronger at the top. Ojulari has enough burst and know-how for his position to make an early impact.
18. Miami Dolphins — Gregory Rousseau, edge, Miami
More likely to trade up or down? Down. May as well keep piling up the picks — it’s worked well for Miami so far during this rebuilding phase.
Mini-run on edge players, as Rousseau stays local and gives the Dolphins a physical, three-down presence up front. His size (6-7, 265) and length pair well with the Brian Flores defensive scheme.
19. Washington Football Team — Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, S, TCU
More likely to trade up or down? Up, should one of the top four quarterbacks start to fall. They were gone by pick No. 8 here, meaning Washington likely would have to get to at least No. 7. It would take multiple first-rounders to make it happen.
The other option is to take Mac Jones (or another QB) at this spot. Thought about it, but The Athletic’s Ben Standig just wrote that the WFT is hunting a veteran: Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, etc. Instead, it’s Moehrig-Woodard, a player who does pretty much everything well.
20. Chicago Bears — Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Up. Same caveat as Washington, however, that it would hinge on how feasible it is to go get Wilson/Lance/Fields. Jones might not generate the same interest.
Jones comes with a mixed bag of opinions about his upside. So, here’s what we know: He played and won on a huge stage (albeit with elite talent around him), he’s a pinpoint passer in short to intermediate windows, and he was phenomenal at the Senior Bowl. This wouldn’t be a sit-and-wait pick. Jones still can step in and compete for the starting gig on Day 1.
21. Indianapolis Colts — Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
More likely to trade up or down? Down. While the Colts have their QB now in Carson Wentz, that trade left them shy on draft picks this year and next. They could recoup one from this spot.
Our recent beat writer mock had Jones and Darrisaw at 20 and 21, respectively. I didn’t follow suit on purpose, but both picks work. Darrisaw could plug in at tackle for the Colts and — bonus — allow Quenton Nelson to stay at guard. A Darrisaw-Nelson combo on the left side would absolutely maul defensive fronts.
22. Tennessee Titans — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
More likely to trade up or down? Is “stay put” cheating? This is a good spot for what Tennessee needs, notably at edge. If that’s not allowed, let’s say trade down — the default if there isn’t a clear trade-up match.
If we fast forwarded five years and learned Owusu-Koramoah — not Parsons — was the best “linebacker” in this class, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. They’re completely different players, of course. The Titans’ pick at 23 is that safety/linebacker hybrid who’s almost a must-have in the modern NFL.
23. New York Jets (from Seattle) — Asante Samuel, CB, Florida State
More likely to trade up or down? Up. Outside of No. 2 overall, the Jets have five more picks within the top 100. Plenty of ammo should they want to climb a few spots midway through Round 1.
Trying to do the math to weigh where the value is now vs. where it’ll be when the Jets pick again at 34 — they easily could go edge or O-line in this spot, too. And because of an approaching cliff at cornerback, let’s make it Samuel here. Worry about the size (5-10, 185) if you must, but Samuel has phenomenal feet and always finds the ball.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers — Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Scaling the mountain for a quarterback only works if Jones is their guy or there’s a precipitous drop from those ranked ahead of him. An extra top-100 pick would be huge as the Ben Roethlisberger window closes.
Does having a star running back matter if there’s no one to block for him? Let’s find out. With or without Roethlisberger in 2021, the Steelers have to get more out of their backfield. Harris is a highly productive back who offers more than people give him credit for as a receiving threat.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) — Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
More likely to trade up or down? Up. Essentially, the same argument as we just made with the Jets at 23. The Jaguars have six top-100 picks (and four top-50 picks), so they can be aggressive.
The presences of Myles Jack and Joe Schobert don’t make linebacker a glaring need for the Jaguars, per se, but adding a third standout could propel that position group into the stratosphere. Collins will be on a lot of radars by this range, because of how many different ways he can contribute.
26. Cleveland Browns — Kwity Paye, edge, Michigan
More likely to trade up or down? Up. This team is close enough that it could talk itself into thinking it’s one or two players away by late April.
The top-10 buzz on Paye might be a bit lofty, but it’s driven by his freaky athletic traits. Put him opposite Myles Garrett, tee him up in a bunch of one-on-one sets and the pass-rush numbers should be there. If he slides close to this far, Cleveland — or another club — could consider jumping a few slots for him.
27. Baltimore Ravens — Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
More likely to trade up or down? Down. The Ravens’ front office is one that appreciates quantity and value during the draft. It’s down a Round 3 pick, too, so the Ravens no doubt would love to pull one back.
Does Baltimore need more help inside at guard — that could be the Harbaugh connection Jalen Mayfield pick — or at tackle, if Orlando Brown gets moved? Jenkins addresses the latter. He’s one of the meaner, more powerful dudes you’ll see on tape.
28. New Orleans Saints — Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
More likely to trade up or down? Up, but only for Mac Jones. Could the Saints staple a rough contract to pick No. 28 or is that too much of an NBA-style move? Either way, sliding back a round might get the Saints a shot at a QB and another contributing player.
It’ll take a bit to filter things through a post-Drew Brees lens. This pick would help any QB the Saints plug in for 2021. Toney’s movement skills are almost hard to fathom, from a football and physics perspective. Not even Waddle has this type of shimmy in space.
29. Green Bay Packers — Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
More likely to trade up or down? Down. After trading up for Jordan Love last year, the Packers might put themselves in a self-imposed timeout on those early swings for the fences.
Nixon’s projected draft stock is all over the place. It’s a long wait from 29 to Green Bay’s pick at 62, though, and the Iowa product showed an ability for eating up interior blocking. As a complement to Kenny Clark, he’d have ample chances to split gaps up front.
30. Buffalo Bills — Jayson Oweh, edge, Penn State
More likely to trade up or down? Up. The appeal of a defensive game-changer could be enticing for a Bills team that fell one stop short of the Super Bowl. Dane Brugler pulled the trigger for the No. 21 pick — and Horn — in his last projection.
There are a bunch of viable O-line options for the Bills — Jalen Mayfield, Wyatt Davis, Liam Eichenberg, Landon Dickerson. Just enough of them that Buffalo might be able to wait and see what it can do in Round 2. Oweh is a raw-upside prospect that Sean McDermott probably would love to mold into a pass-rushing force.
31. Kansas City Chiefs — Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State
More likely to trade up or down? Down. The Chiefs pick deep into Rounds 1-5 and again in Round 7, so adding anything early — plus an extra selection elsewhere — might be worth it. The extended gap between the first and seconds rounds of the draft is a nice advantage for the teams picking early on Friday.
Don’t want to overreact to what happened in the Super Bowl but BIG YIKES. The Chiefs needed to upgrade their line anyway, and they also could be dealing with several departures during free agency. Davis would make life easier for Patrick Mahomes.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jaelan Phillips, edge, Miami (Fla.)
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Move back, add a pick, watch the board develop for another 24 hours. Not a bad plan for the defending Super Bowl champs.
If any team can afford to take a shot on Phillips, who’s already retired from football once due to concussion issues, it’s the Bucs off their remarkable 2020. A healthy, committed Phillips might be as good as this edge class gets in terms of all-around, versatile ability.
Chris Burke 2h ago
Putting together an NFL mock draft this time of year is always helpful, not just for the exercise itself but for what it reveals about each roster. If it makes sense to keep pairing a team with a cornerback or an offensive tackle, those positions figure to be high on the list when free agency opens, too. At the bare minimum, all of these mocks should help narrow a team’s needs.
Which is my way of saying that I know a lot of the picks made below will be proven wrong, but I’ve rationalized a way to forgive myself.
A little wrinkle to this rendition: A quick-hit look at whether each team is more likely to move up or down from its given spot (or spots) within Round 1. There’s going to be movement somewhere along the line — Mock 2.0 will fold in a few specific guesses as to where.
Away we go …
1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
More likely to trade up or down? Down. I know many of you will call me an idiot in the comments for this mock, but even I know the Jaguars can’t trade up from here.
Not that there was any doubt, but Lawrence’s pro day cemented his standing as the top available prospect, especially because he powered through it despite impending surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. The NFL machine loves nothing more than being able to hype a quarterback’s toughness.
2. New York Jets — Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
More likely to trade up or down? Down. In fact, there is a little momentum building for the Jets to roll with Sam Darnold, slide back to, say, No. 4 or No. 8 and see where that takes ‘em. If they’re not absolutely in love with Wilson, Justin Fields or Trey Lance, that should be the move.
No matter which team picks here, Wilson is the odds-on favorite to be QB2. His athleticism and ability to throw from all sorts of arm angles and platforms means he can make things happen, even if his offensive line isn’t up to par.
3. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) — Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Really the last spot where the trade up/down game has a fairly obvious answer. With the expected early run on quarterbacks, the Jets and Dolphins should field plenty of phone calls.
As much fun as it would be to reunite Tua Tagovailoa with DeVonta Smith, we can safely assume that Tagovailoa would enjoy throwing to Chase, too. Chase is a plug-and-play No. 1 receiver with immediate 1,000-yard potential; DeVante Parker, at 793 yards, topped Miami’s production last year.
4. Atlanta Falcons — Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
More likely to trade up or down? Up … ? Were aggressive former GM Thomas Dimitroff still calling the shots, it’d be natural to predict the Falcons climbing for their QB of the future. Will new general manager Terry Fontenot be as willing to roll the dice?
A lot of different ways this selection could go. But something about Lance sitting behind Matt Ryan for a year and soaking in an Arthur Smith offense feels right. Smith could unlock Lance’s full, dynamic skill set.
5. Cincinnati Bengals — Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
More likely to trade up or down? Down, primarily because it’s been two-plus decades since the Bengals traded up in Round 1. They don’t need a QB this year.
It’d be tempting to grab one of the playmaking weapons here with A.J. Green about to hit free agency. It should be more of a priority to build a stout O-line in front of Joe Burrow. Pairing Sewell with Jonah Williams could give Cincinnati its bookend tackles for years to come.
6. Philadelphia Eagles — Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Unless the Eagles are already all the way out on Jalen Hurts, the value for them is in stockpiling picks. They’re still in a good spot here to dangle a QB or an elite wide receiver to a team in need.
Pitts is special. He’s a “tight end” by designation but can do so much, from so many different alignments, to help an offense that he almost needs his own category. If new coach Nick Sirianni’s offense still looks like it did in Indianapolis, he’d take full advantage of Pitts’ talents.
7. Detroit Lions — Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Then maybe down again. The Lions lack high-end talent, but what first-year GM Brad Holmes really needs in 2021 and ‘22 is as many darts as he can throw.
This roster hasn’t had a lightning-bolt threat like Waddle since … uh … does a 28-year-old Reggie Bush count? Detroit’s offense has long been built around receivers who can stretch the field vertically. It hasn’t had guys who can threaten all levels sideline to sideline.
8. Carolina Panthers — Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
More likely to trade up or down? Up. It’s no secret that Carolina is willing to push all-in for a new quarterback — Dane Brugler had the Panthers trading up to No. 3 (for multiple first-rounders) in his last mock.
Without any trades here, the board falls in the Panthers’ favor (unless they prefer Wilson or Lance). Fields might take a bunch of sacks as a rookie as he adjusts to NFL speed, but the upside is enormous. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady certainly could make this work.
9. Denver Broncos — Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Down, barring a shift over the next few weeks toward needing a new quarterback of the future. There’s a decent chance that some other team out there would want to nab the first defensive player off the board.
For all the hype over a Chase-Smith-Waddle debate at receiver, the Surtain-Caleb Farley-Jaycee Horn pecking order will be huge in this range. Surtain is a 6-foot-2 defender whose NFL bloodlines — his dad was a three-time Pro Bowler — show up in how he works the nuances of his position.
10. Dallas Cowboys — Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
More likely to trade up or down? Down. An inverse of the Bengals, in that the Cowboys just don’t trade down much. But the board should still look rather favorable if they drop back a couple of spots.
The biggest swing, trade or not, would be predicting the Cowboys to select something other than a cornerback. It’s fortunate, though, when a position of need lines up with the board. Farley is another 6-2 defender with the speed to run and stay in phase against receivers outside.
11. New York Giants — Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
More likely to trade up or down? Up. GM Dave Gettleman sometimes seems like he’d rather let the clock run out on his selection than trade back. But moving the other way this year could land him a premier receiver.
I thought about offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and edge Azeez Ojulari here, but Parsons was too much of a value to pass up here. Give him a year or two to bank some more experience and the Penn State product could be a game-wrecking All-Pro on the second level.
12. San Francisco 49ers — Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
More likely to trade up or down? Up. You’ve probably already seen multiple mocks suggesting the 49ers jump into the top 10 for a quarterback. That buzz won’t die without a big move there ahead of the draft.
This is slightly contingent on left tackle Trent Williams exiting San Francisco. However, even if he sticks around, a significant selling point for Slater is his versatility. If the 49ers are one of the teams that views Slater as a top-10 pick — maybe even the best OT prospect — this would be a steal.
13. Los Angeles Chargers — Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Slater coming this close to No. 13 might change the thinking — this line is desperate for someone of that caliber — but trading down would give the Chargers multiple chances to cash in on this O-line class’ depth.
Wasn’t expecting to have an internal Horn vs. DeVonta Smith debate at 13. As mentioned, however, the opportunities should be there to nab multiple starting-caliber offensive linemen on Day 2. At this spot, the Chargers address another need with a sticky man-coverage option.
14. Minnesota Vikings — Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Up. Teams in this middle range, who missed the playoffs yet see themselves as a handful of players away from legitimate contention, are always trade-up favorites. Could Minnesota make a move on an OT?
It’s tough to play defense in this league without consistent interior pressure, which the Vikings did not have last season. Barmore would fix that. When he’s on — like he was during the College Football Playoff — he’s a nightmare up front.
15. New England Patriots — DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Up. How badly does Bill Belichick want to find his new franchise quarterback? It’s a long haul from No. 15 to the top seven or eight.
There are fits all over the place for Smith, plus teams that no doubt would be intrigued by the reigning Heisman winner falling into their lap. The floor has to be right around this range. Forget about Smith’s lack of prototypical size; his polished game is very NFL-ready.
16. Arizona Cardinals — Alijah Vera-Tucker, G/T, USC
More likely to trade up or down? Up. One can see why in this mock — the Cardinals just missed out on prospects like Horn and Smith, either of whom would be welcome fits.
Ojulari (who has a very strong case for being the top edge) slotted here until the J.J. Watt news broke. Vera-Tucker might have been a wiser investment anyway. He’s capable of starting inside or out, and the Cardinals have to make sure they keep Kyler Murray upright.
17. Las Vegas Raiders — Azeez Ojulari, edge, Georgia
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Tough call here, but I’m just not seeing a lot of prospects the Raiders would be desperate to go get. Better to fall back, if the opportunity arises, considering how close the grades figure to be on players in this range.
Elite edge players are so coveted, it’s hard to grasp the first one coming off the board just past the Round 1 halfway point. It could happen this year, though, because other positions are stronger at the top. Ojulari has enough burst and know-how for his position to make an early impact.
18. Miami Dolphins — Gregory Rousseau, edge, Miami
More likely to trade up or down? Down. May as well keep piling up the picks — it’s worked well for Miami so far during this rebuilding phase.
Mini-run on edge players, as Rousseau stays local and gives the Dolphins a physical, three-down presence up front. His size (6-7, 265) and length pair well with the Brian Flores defensive scheme.
19. Washington Football Team — Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, S, TCU
More likely to trade up or down? Up, should one of the top four quarterbacks start to fall. They were gone by pick No. 8 here, meaning Washington likely would have to get to at least No. 7. It would take multiple first-rounders to make it happen.
The other option is to take Mac Jones (or another QB) at this spot. Thought about it, but The Athletic’s Ben Standig just wrote that the WFT is hunting a veteran: Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, etc. Instead, it’s Moehrig-Woodard, a player who does pretty much everything well.
20. Chicago Bears — Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Up. Same caveat as Washington, however, that it would hinge on how feasible it is to go get Wilson/Lance/Fields. Jones might not generate the same interest.
Jones comes with a mixed bag of opinions about his upside. So, here’s what we know: He played and won on a huge stage (albeit with elite talent around him), he’s a pinpoint passer in short to intermediate windows, and he was phenomenal at the Senior Bowl. This wouldn’t be a sit-and-wait pick. Jones still can step in and compete for the starting gig on Day 1.
21. Indianapolis Colts — Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
More likely to trade up or down? Down. While the Colts have their QB now in Carson Wentz, that trade left them shy on draft picks this year and next. They could recoup one from this spot.
Our recent beat writer mock had Jones and Darrisaw at 20 and 21, respectively. I didn’t follow suit on purpose, but both picks work. Darrisaw could plug in at tackle for the Colts and — bonus — allow Quenton Nelson to stay at guard. A Darrisaw-Nelson combo on the left side would absolutely maul defensive fronts.
22. Tennessee Titans — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
More likely to trade up or down? Is “stay put” cheating? This is a good spot for what Tennessee needs, notably at edge. If that’s not allowed, let’s say trade down — the default if there isn’t a clear trade-up match.
If we fast forwarded five years and learned Owusu-Koramoah — not Parsons — was the best “linebacker” in this class, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. They’re completely different players, of course. The Titans’ pick at 23 is that safety/linebacker hybrid who’s almost a must-have in the modern NFL.
23. New York Jets (from Seattle) — Asante Samuel, CB, Florida State
More likely to trade up or down? Up. Outside of No. 2 overall, the Jets have five more picks within the top 100. Plenty of ammo should they want to climb a few spots midway through Round 1.
Trying to do the math to weigh where the value is now vs. where it’ll be when the Jets pick again at 34 — they easily could go edge or O-line in this spot, too. And because of an approaching cliff at cornerback, let’s make it Samuel here. Worry about the size (5-10, 185) if you must, but Samuel has phenomenal feet and always finds the ball.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers — Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Scaling the mountain for a quarterback only works if Jones is their guy or there’s a precipitous drop from those ranked ahead of him. An extra top-100 pick would be huge as the Ben Roethlisberger window closes.
Does having a star running back matter if there’s no one to block for him? Let’s find out. With or without Roethlisberger in 2021, the Steelers have to get more out of their backfield. Harris is a highly productive back who offers more than people give him credit for as a receiving threat.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) — Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
More likely to trade up or down? Up. Essentially, the same argument as we just made with the Jets at 23. The Jaguars have six top-100 picks (and four top-50 picks), so they can be aggressive.
The presences of Myles Jack and Joe Schobert don’t make linebacker a glaring need for the Jaguars, per se, but adding a third standout could propel that position group into the stratosphere. Collins will be on a lot of radars by this range, because of how many different ways he can contribute.
26. Cleveland Browns — Kwity Paye, edge, Michigan
More likely to trade up or down? Up. This team is close enough that it could talk itself into thinking it’s one or two players away by late April.
The top-10 buzz on Paye might be a bit lofty, but it’s driven by his freaky athletic traits. Put him opposite Myles Garrett, tee him up in a bunch of one-on-one sets and the pass-rush numbers should be there. If he slides close to this far, Cleveland — or another club — could consider jumping a few slots for him.
27. Baltimore Ravens — Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
More likely to trade up or down? Down. The Ravens’ front office is one that appreciates quantity and value during the draft. It’s down a Round 3 pick, too, so the Ravens no doubt would love to pull one back.
Does Baltimore need more help inside at guard — that could be the Harbaugh connection Jalen Mayfield pick — or at tackle, if Orlando Brown gets moved? Jenkins addresses the latter. He’s one of the meaner, more powerful dudes you’ll see on tape.
28. New Orleans Saints — Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
More likely to trade up or down? Up, but only for Mac Jones. Could the Saints staple a rough contract to pick No. 28 or is that too much of an NBA-style move? Either way, sliding back a round might get the Saints a shot at a QB and another contributing player.
It’ll take a bit to filter things through a post-Drew Brees lens. This pick would help any QB the Saints plug in for 2021. Toney’s movement skills are almost hard to fathom, from a football and physics perspective. Not even Waddle has this type of shimmy in space.
29. Green Bay Packers — Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
More likely to trade up or down? Down. After trading up for Jordan Love last year, the Packers might put themselves in a self-imposed timeout on those early swings for the fences.
Nixon’s projected draft stock is all over the place. It’s a long wait from 29 to Green Bay’s pick at 62, though, and the Iowa product showed an ability for eating up interior blocking. As a complement to Kenny Clark, he’d have ample chances to split gaps up front.
30. Buffalo Bills — Jayson Oweh, edge, Penn State
More likely to trade up or down? Up. The appeal of a defensive game-changer could be enticing for a Bills team that fell one stop short of the Super Bowl. Dane Brugler pulled the trigger for the No. 21 pick — and Horn — in his last projection.
There are a bunch of viable O-line options for the Bills — Jalen Mayfield, Wyatt Davis, Liam Eichenberg, Landon Dickerson. Just enough of them that Buffalo might be able to wait and see what it can do in Round 2. Oweh is a raw-upside prospect that Sean McDermott probably would love to mold into a pass-rushing force.
31. Kansas City Chiefs — Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State
More likely to trade up or down? Down. The Chiefs pick deep into Rounds 1-5 and again in Round 7, so adding anything early — plus an extra selection elsewhere — might be worth it. The extended gap between the first and seconds rounds of the draft is a nice advantage for the teams picking early on Friday.
Don’t want to overreact to what happened in the Super Bowl but BIG YIKES. The Chiefs needed to upgrade their line anyway, and they also could be dealing with several departures during free agency. Davis would make life easier for Patrick Mahomes.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jaelan Phillips, edge, Miami (Fla.)
More likely to trade up or down? Down. Move back, add a pick, watch the board develop for another 24 hours. Not a bad plan for the defending Super Bowl champs.
If any team can afford to take a shot on Phillips, who’s already retired from football once due to concussion issues, it’s the Bucs off their remarkable 2020. A healthy, committed Phillips might be as good as this edge class gets in terms of all-around, versatile ability.
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