Bob Sturm: Analyzing one ‘luck’ component that was a key to Cowboys’ 2014 success

Cowboysrock55 said:

I think you're just plain wrong on this. There is a whole genetic component to this that you just completely ignore. Some guys bodies are just built to withstand a beating better then other bodies. If you're telling me that Witten who hasn't missed a game in 8+ seasons is just as likely to get hurt as Murray next year, then I'd say you're bat shit crazy. Sure there is always a chance a player could stay healthy all year. Just like there is a chance a healthy player could get hurt. But those odds aren't the same for every player. Murray staying healthy most of the season last year (Remember he did miss time with an injury) was THE fluke.

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I wouldn't tell you Witten is just as likely to get injured as Murray... But I wouldn't base it on some magical "genetic component."

Some players are at less impactful positions and are less likely to get injured. Witten touched the ball 64 times last season and Murray had 449 touches. You tell me which is more likely to get injured based on that. Witten is good at protecting himself... I'm sure there are people here who bitch about him going down on first contact and not getting the extra yards. That's not Murray at all. Also, Witten's workout regimen is well-known. Murray trained with him last off-season, basically because he wanted to prevent injury... and it appeared to have some effect.

But Witten's not less likely to get injured because he has good genes. He works hard, takes care of himself, and doesn't carry the ball as much... All of those things go into "avoiding injury," but you can never account for the freak plays that take players out much of the time.

peplaw06 said:

But Witten's not less likely to get injured because he has good genes.

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Not true.

Here is an interesting read on genetics and the role they play in sports injuries.
http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2015/02/the-genetics-of-being-injury-prone/385257/

Obviously no one is talking about a genetic test but certainly when one TE goes 8 straight seasons without missing a game and Jordan Cameron can't play for 16 games in a season to save his life, we are talking about far more then just luck which is what people are suggesting.

Cowboysrock55 said:

Not true.

Here is an interesting read on genetics and the role they play in sports injuries.
http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2015/02/the-genetics-of-being-injury-prone/385257/

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So what is Witten's genetic makeup specifically? Have you compared it to Murray's?

Obviously no one is talking about a genetic test but certainly when one TE goes 8 straight seasons without missing a game and Jordan Cameron can't play for 16 games in a season to save his life, we are talking about far more then just luck which is what people are suggesting.

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Luck is a part. So is how you prepare and play the game.

There's a reason a guy like Sean Lee, who's probably the hardest worker on the team is more injury prone than your average MLBer. Bone density, ligament laxity, testosterone level, hgh, and cortisol are all dictated by genetics and will have a lot to do with whether a player can avoid or recover from injury.

peplaw06 said:

So what is Witten's genetic makeup specifically? Have you compared it to Murray's?

Luck is a part. So is how you prepare and play the game.

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No, this isn't about Witten verse Murray. That's why I used Jordan Cameron as an example instead. Pick whatever player you want. You don't need a DNA test to see that a player is more or less likely to be hurt.

Cowboysrock55 said:

No, this isn't about Witten verse Murray. That's why I used Jordan Cameron as an example instead. Pick whatever player you want. You don't need a DNA test to see that a player is more or less likely to be hurt.

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OK, compare it to Jordan Cameron. The point is... you don't know how the genetic makeup of a person makes them more or less likely to suffer injury. There are a ton of other things that cause or prevent injuries... and luck is one of them. To discount that and just claim genetics is the only thing that you can look to, is ridiculous.

peplaw06 said:

OK, compare it to Jordan Cameron. The point is... you don't know how the genetic makeup of a person makes them more or less likely to suffer injury. There are a ton of other things that cause or prevent injuries... and luck is one of them. To discount that and just claim genetics is the only thing that you can look to, is ridiculous.

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No one said it's the only thing that controls if a player gets hurt or not. You're the one that claimed it plays no part. Which was incorrect. That's all I was saying.

You made the statement that Witten's not less likely to get injured because he has good genes.

Ultimately genetics are just one factor. Just like working out and taking care of your body is another factor.

Cowboysrock55 said:

Because teams are made up of many individual players. Now I have been focusing mostly on offense because as was pointed out we certainly had injuries on defense. You mention a guy falling on a knee. But the fact of the matter is that fall for one player may tear something. For another player it may be a mild sprain. People's genetics and bodies are that much different. It's not luck when you have a roster full of guys who have been able to stay healthy most of their career. It's called building a roster the right way. If you build your roster with broken down Jay Ratliffs your team is going to have injuries. I refuse to label things like that as "luck" as though personnel decisions play no part in this.

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I don't deny that some players are more durable than others. But that's determined in hindsight. Except in cases where the player has repeatedly been hurt in college, I don't see how you can claim the team knows in advance that the players they draft are going to be more durable than others. How could they know that? Did we know in 2002 that Jason Witten would play a decade without getting hurt? Do we know that Byron Jones is going to be durable? If so, why did he miss so many games last year?


If you have some evidence that we've uniquely identified the factors that determine which players will get hurt and which ones won't, I'd love to hear it. I bet Jacksonville would also like to know so they don't spend any more third overall picks on players who blow out their knees in non-contact minicamp practices.

peplaw06 said:

Some players are at less impactful positions and are less likely to get injured. Witten touched the ball 64 times last season and Murray had 449 touches. You tell me which is more likely to get injured based on that.

.

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That touch comparison is very flawed, the TE position is one of the most physically taxing positions in football, you know because of the whole blocking thing.

Witten is having violent contact with a guy bigger than him as much or more than Murray when he is blocking.

Cowboysrock55 said:

No one said it's the only thing that controls if a player gets hurt or not. You're the one that claimed it plays no part. Which was incorrect. That's all I was saying.

You made the statement that Witten's not less likely to get injured because he has good genes.

Ultimately genetics are just one factor. Just like working out and taking care of your body is another factor.

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There's a "just" that I skipped on my post... just because he has good genes. My mistake. My original point is that you can't predict injuries or health.

However, until you have a genetic study on Witten, there's no way to prove or disprove my statement. You don't know if it's genetics or luck or good maintenance. Citing a generalized study doesn't do anything as it pertains to Witten.

You are discounting the luck component of injuries... but at the same time stated:

Sure there is always a chance a player could stay healthy all year. Just like there is a chance a healthy player could get hurt.

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That implies that there is a luck component.

[MENTION=228]peplaw06[/MENTION] meet [MENTION=9]Cowboysrock55[/MENTION]. You guys should get along well. You have things in common. One thing in particular. You are both lawyers... as evidenced in the argument above.

peplaw06 said:

However, until you have a genetic study on Witten, there's no way to prove or disprove my statement. You don't know if it's genetics or luck or good maintenance. Citing a generalized study doesn't do anything as it pertains to Witten.

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You're right. Without actual medical experiments you can't really prove for a fact that it's genetics. It's kind of like flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads every single time. Sure it's possible that it's just luck. Extremely unlikely but possible with Witten.

When someone says you are lucky it implies that you beat the odds. If there is a 95% chance of success and you succeed you didn't get lucky. That's all I'm saying. So if the Cowboys have a roster of guys that stay healthy most of the time, it's not lucky that they stayed healthy last year. It's what you should expect.

Cowboysrock55 said:

You're right. Without actual medical experiments you can't really prove for a fact that it's genetics. It's kind of like flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads every single time. Sure it's possible that it's just luck. Extremely unlikely but possible with Witten.

When someone says you are lucky it implies that you beat the odds. If there is a 95% chance of success and you succeed you didn't get lucky. That's all I'm saying. So if the Cowboys have a roster of guys that stay healthy most of the time, it's not lucky that they stayed healthy last year. It's what you should expect.

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There is some luck component. Greg Ellis had literally never suffered a football injury before that freak broken leg that turned him from what looked like a surefire double digit sack guy to a guy who would get 5-7 sacks in the first 8 games and settle for two in the last half of the season.