Why Ezekiel Elliott had better be Adrian Peterson to justify Cowboys' decision

Jiggyfly

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Bob Sturm on Day 1 of NFL draft: Why Ezekiel Elliott had better be Adrian Peterson to justify Cowboys' decision


By Bob Sturm , Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:mad:SportsSturm
The Cowboys had a choice to make this weekend and they made it without hesitation. There is no indication that it had unanimous consent from the decision-makers, but that doesn't matter. The choice came down to continuing to double-down on the Tony Romo era and to take every resource and dedicate it to the "here and now" -- or not.

If you enjoyed those three Super Bowls of the 1990s (and I hope you did), then you understand life with Jerry Jones. He is not going to be interested in safe plays or conservative plans to build an empire that will last for a decade when the more attractive choice gives a lottery ticket to the next Super Bowl. He has spoken recently about "his window," which is profoundly more meaningful than hearing about a career span. He is talking about his own life. I imagine if you have all of the money in the world and everything that can buy, you quickly realize that money cannot buy time. And when time runs out, either you feel like you took advantage of every day you had or you didn't.

That last paragraph is certainly an odd inclusion in a draft summary, but it might explain decision-making for this organization. You see, there comes a point in any person's life when they stop worrying about saving for retirement and start enjoying their money because the clock is ticking.

I would say the Cowboys have been in this phase of life for a while under their famous owner, but the 2016 draft decision makes it crystal clear.

"If this gets you a Super Bowl, isn't it worth it?"

The drafting of Ezekiel Elliott is for the "here and now." The Cowboys wanted the best running back in the draft and they got him -- read my full breakdown of the young man here. People are actually using the term "Triplets" again, even though in this case, the premise of the QB-RB-WR being born at the same time is replaced with the idea that the quarterback is almost old enough to be the running back's dad.

Elliott will give them a superb talent at a position that needed upgrading, and that should be celebrated. He should make an above-average offense a candidate to be one of the best offenses in the sport. There is nothing wrong with adding a potential blue-chipper. Well, except for the following:

-- If you do it, you are ignoring Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey, according to some reports, was the best player on the Cowboys' board and would have been a blue-chip addition as well. But, this guy could have anchored the defense, and if his career actually is similar to Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, or Charles Woodson's, it is safe to say that it would have been that way for a decade or more. And we could argue that was needed in a much more severe way than fixing a running back situation that wasn't broken.

-- If you do it, you are risking an over-investment at a position that doesn't require it. I have suggested all along that the Cowboys should take a running back with either their second or third round pick, because it has been my claim that there are three to four prospects beyond Elliott who should be able to be dominant behind this Cowboys offensive line and with their offensive personnel. If you take one of those after you have tried to put one or two difference makers on a defense that lacks those studs, then you try to attack your offseason with a more global view of a game that requires "all three phases." Instead, they continue to invest in offense, offense, offense and hope their offense is so great they actually never play defense (I assume). Look at it this way: They paid almost nothing for Darren McFadden last year ... then took away Tony Romo ... then Dez Bryant ... then McFadden was not given the ball 11-plus times in a game until mid-October. Without being able to run zone plays with any effectiveness and only starting 10 games with no quarterback threat, he still finished fourth in the league in rushing. Odds are, if he started all 16, he might have won a rushing title. And they paid nothing for him. Does it make sense to pay a fortune to fix that? What needed fixing that couldn't have been accomplished for far less? In other words, Elliott is great, but you just bought a Maserati while living with your parents. It is a very nice car. But, perhaps we should move out of dad's house. The argument for a second- or third-round running back was always this: Why not get 80 percent of Ezekiel Elliott for 30 percent of the cost. In the third round, according to the point chart, pick No. 67 is about 14 percent of pick No. 4. Sigh. Keep in mind the total cost of Elliott is going to be about five years/$36 million if they pick up his option (which they better) -- in other words, way more than 24-year-old Lamar Miller got from Houston in free agency. So, yeah, he better be Adrian Peterson for this to make sense.

But, they did it. They are going for it. And they got a fine player. I just thought their quest for efficiency was incredibly inefficient. With a 53-man roster in a tight salary capped league, frivolous purchases seldom pay off. Which leads us back to this:
"If this gets you a Super Bowl, isn't it worth it?"

Well, yes. This is true. Although, we will always wonder if Derrick Henry or Devontae Booker or Kenneth Dixon, combined with Jalen Ramsey, might have put you as close or closer to that ultimate prize. But, those will now become bar-room discussions and labeled "unresolvable," just like the discussions about whether DeMarco Murray's exit really crashed everything or whether it's an easy conclusion to draw that likely is not the truth. How about the idea that if they took Jay Ajayi in last year's third or fourth round (with his knee concerns) -- instead of Chaz Green or Damien Wilson -- then, like Miami, they have their future running back and aren't thinking running back at all in this draft? Unfortunately, ifs and buts are not candy and nuts. Otherwise, it would be Christmas every day.

The pick has been made and the Cowboys have an elite talent. This fish has a really fancy bicycle. Let's hope it is everything it is dreamed to be.

Now, what about this other development from last night?

The Cowboys tried to trade back into Round 1 with their second- and third-round picks to get Paxton Lynch after taking Elliot. Think about that for a second. As if this really was fantasy football, they were thinking of using all three of their premium picks -- that should have presented their defense the facelift it so badly needs -- on a running back and a quarterback.
Instead, Seattle took Denver's offer for the Memphis quarterback. Denver offered Nos. 31 and 124 to the Seahawks (724 points according to one point-value chart) while the Cowboys offered Nos. 34 and 67 (815 points). The Seahawks took fewer points to stay in Round 1 and enjoy that fifth-year option on their eventual pick -- Texas A&M offensive tackle Germain Ifedi. Interesting decision and even more interesting that the Cowboys were willing to ignore defense completely in the impact portion of this draft. I have been preaching the Quarterback of the Future sermon, but I was only in on that if they went defense at the top.

I heard from many of you who stated the belief that the Cowboys' best bet to help Romo and gang make a run before it's too late was defense, defense and defense in this draft.Well, the Cowboys clearly disagree. I would have been excited to leave with Paxton Lynch, but very similarly to Elliott, at some point we have to consider the cost. The cost to do either would have been a top-shelf commitment. To do both? Off the charts.

But, that one didn't happen. Perhaps Seattle saved the Cowboys from themselves. Or, it just delayed the quarterback play for today. But, I am far less inclined to get aggressive for the remaining quarterbacks in this crop.

Here's who's available for them at No. 34 from a defensive perspective:
Plenty of defensive end help with Kevin Dodd from Clemson at the top of my list and Emmanuel Ogbah from Oklahoma State in that range, too. Noah Spence is a better player than both, but the Cowboys don't love his work against the run and his issues off the field (which are considerable). Ronald Blair is really strong, too.

At linebacker, Myles Jack sits there (as does Jaylon Smith). I didn't like either up top, but there will come a point where both must be considered despite major health issues. They both are amazing football players. And I am told the Cowboys are not considering either for No. 34.
Defensive tackle is so deep the Cowboys may even still find some red meat at No. 67. A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed and Andrew Billings all are first-round caliber. But, the group behind is quite impressive, too. Jonathan Bullard is a consideration as well.

Plenty of defensive backs are there, too -- at both picks. You can't rule out Mackensie Alexander or Vonn Bell in Round 2, or Xavien Howard and plenty of others at No. 67.

The point is: This is a pretty strong draft for the next 36 picks, and the Cowboys will select twice in that span. Full analysis and feelings about Round 1 will be very dependent on what Dallas is able to do in Rounds 2-3 today. And because of those decisions from yesterday, they really need to hit one out of the ballpark at about 6:15 p.m. tonight with No. 34.
 

Cotton

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Sturm really homered out for Ramsey. I don't think he is seeing clearly.
 

Jiggyfly

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Sturm really homered out for Ramsey. I don't think he is seeing clearly.
I think he sees things clearly and I saw a lot of that.

I just don't know if Ramsey is that level of difference maker, Sturm seems to think so.
 

Clay_Allison

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We really needed to add a guy with no ball skills to a secondary that struggles to produce turnovers? Feh.
 

1bigfan13

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Sturm really homered out for Ramsey. I don't think he is seeing clearly.
Clearly he's jaded. If the Cowboys had traded up for Elliot then I could understand Sturm's stance and I'd by right there with him. But we're talking about a player who was widely considered one of the top 5 players in the draft and we picked him with our original pick. So I'm not sure why Elliot has to be the next Peterson in order to justify drafting him.

If the Cowboys use Elliot like they used Murray in 2014 the pick is absolutely worth it.
 

Carp

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This is fucking stupid. If he is not Peterson he is a bust? Every RB taken since Peterson was drafted has not been as good as him.

All of our good to great teams have had a premier lead back...from Dorsett to Emmitt to Murray.

The 5 years 36 mil is a valid point, but last year they let Murray go because they did not want to sink a bunch more money into a RB with mileage. Ramsey has a chance to be an excellent player, but the last time a CB led his team to a Super Bowl win was...umm...never.
 

Carp

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Elliott was their highest rated player...it would have been retarded to pass on for any player but a QB.
 

Jiggyfly

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Clearly he's jaded. If the Cowboys had traded up for Elliot then I could understand Sturm's stance and I'd by right there with him. But we're talking about a player who was widely considered one of the top 5 players in the draft and we picked him with our original pick. So I'm not sure why Elliot has to be the next Peterson in order to justify drafting him.

If the Cowboys use Elliot like they used Murray in 2014 the pick is absolutely worth it.
That is why I came around on Elliott he was one of the top 5 talents in this draft.

I think Ramsey will be real good but the bust factor is bigger with DB's.
 

1bigfan13

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I like how he brought up the names Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, or Charles Woodson as if Ramsey has ever shown the play making ability of those players.

Ramsey could turn out to be a great pro but I would never draft a DB in the top 10 who had fewer than 5 career INTs in college, in 3 full seasons no less.
 

1bigfan13

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When you weigh who's going to have a bigger impact on the team's success or failure the answer is quite simple.

Elliot, like Murray in 2014, will help cover up a many of the Cowboys warts on offense and defense.

There probably isn't a DB in this draft who will have that type of impact on their team.
 

Plan9Misfit

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Sturm really homered out for Ramsey. I don't think he is seeing clearly.
I still don't get the hype on Ramsey. Why go batshit over a guy who never made any plays during his college career, has no defined position, and was merely above average at each? Seriously, THREE INTs in his entire college career with very few pass breakups doesn't scream "elite prospect". Where's the production? The guy's hands are terrible. Sure, he has ball awareness, but he doesn't have any ball SKILLS. So to compare him to Reed, or worse yet, Charles Woodson, is ludicrous. Woodson is the finest DB prospect to have entered any draft in the last 25 years, and only Deion Sanders beats him as a prospect over the last 35. Ramsey isn't anywhere in that league. As little as I happen to like taking RBs high in the draft, Elliott was the correct choice, and I'd make the same decision 100 times out of 100 opportunities given that situation. There wasn't a defensive player in this year's draft who was worthy of the 4th overall pick.
 

ravidubey

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:lol

So now Ramsey is Charles Woodson or Ed Reed?

Woodson had 21 career college interceptions. Reed had 16. Even Polamalu had 6, AKA double Ramsey's career total of THREE.

Ramsey doesn't even belong in the same paragraph, let alone sentence.

As for Ramsey + Henry... well I'll take Jalen Smith and Zeke Elliott any day of the week. I mean, WTF did Ramsey ever do here to deserve the fellating he's getting?
 
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Genghis Khan

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We really needed to add a guy with no ball skills to a secondary that struggles to produce turnovers? Feh.

That's the thing. Sturm says Zeke better be Peterson, and that's true. But he conveniently neglects to mention Ramsey better be Ed Reed to justify taking that high and I don't think he is.
 

Genghis Khan

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This is fucking stupid. If he is not Peterson he is a bust? Every RB taken since Peterson was drafted has not been as good as him.

All of our good to great teams have had a premier lead back...from Dorsett to Emmitt to Murray.

The 5 years 36 mil is a valid point, but last year they let Murray go because they did not want to sink a bunch more money into a RB with mileage. Ramsey has a chance to be an excellent player, but the last time a CB led his team to a Super Bowl win was...umm...never.

Exactly. The mileage part of the equation is huge and people who are crying inconsistency are ignoring this.
 

L.T. Fan

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When you weigh who's going to have a bigger impact on the team's success or failure the answer is quite simple.

Elliot, like Murray in 2014, will help cover up a many of the Cowboys warts on offense and defense.

There probably isn't a DB in this draft who will have that type of impact on their team.
Yep. That's the bottom line litmus test. Who produces the most on the field.
 

DLK150

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That is why I came around on Elliott he was one of the top 5 talents in this draft.

I think Ramsey will be real good but the bust factor is bigger with DB's.
I came around on Elliot after the wheeling and dealing at the top of the first round made it clear that a top QB wasn't coming our way. After that, I was on board with two scenarios: Draft Elliot or trade down to maybe pick up Lynch and another high pick or two.
 
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