Phillips: Drafting Tony Romo’s Successor On Day 3? Good Luck

boozeman

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Drafting Tony Romo’s Successor On Day 3? Good Luck

By Rob Phillips on January 26, 2014


Listen, I realize my neglected draft requests to Cowboys brass may seem contradictory in nature. In one breath, I’ve merely asked them to select and develop a quarterback who throws consistent spirals (ahem, Quincy Carter) and dares to attempt passes longer than 6 yards (cough, cough, Stephen McGee).Romo

In another breath, I’ve begged them to avoid luxury picks reserved for teams with more than one playoff win in the 17 years since 30-year-old backup Jason Garrett became 47-year old head coach Jason Garrett. How many times can I say this nicely: I’m sure Gavin Escobar is a talented kid with passion, emotion and enthusiasm, but the team isn’t good enough to take a backup tight end in the second round for the third time in seven years!

(Oh yes, how quickly I forget those revolutionary “12 personnel” plans. That’s when the defense can’t get the right 11 players on the field, correct?)

If the Cowboys want to spend second- and third-round picks on backup/project players like Escobar, who couldn’t beat out James Hanna for No. 2 on the tight end depth chart, or J.J. Wilcox, a “safety” who mostly played on offense at tiny Georgia Southern, then the front office might as well spend a second- or third-round pick on football’s most important position.

Three-plus months from the NFL Draft, I won’t faux-analyze the quarterbacks in that range until the draft magazines hit my local Albertson’s. Who really knows besides Mel and Mayock, anyway?

I do know this: the Cowboys have been wise to avoid a QB prospect in the fourth through seventh rounds.

By my count, 160 quarterbacks have been drafted since 2001, the same year Jerry Jones tabbed Carter as Troy Aikman’s heir. Only 17 of 160 are/were considered “franchise quarterbacks.” 13 were first-round picks; 2 were second-round picks; 2 were third-round picks:

Michael Vick, 2001 1st
Carson Palmer, 2003 1st
Eli Manning, 2004 1st
Philip Rivers, 2004 1st
Ben Roethlisberger, 2004 1st
Aaron Rodgers, 2005 1st
Jay Cutler, 2006 1st
Joe Flacco, 2008 1st
Matt Ryan, 2008 1st
Matthew Stafford, 2009 1st
Cam Newton, 2011 1st
Andrew Luck, 2012 1st
Robert Griffin III, 2012 1st
Drew Brees, 2001 2nd
Matt Schaub, 2004 3rd
Colin Kaepernick, 2011 2nd
Russell Wilson, 2012 3rd

17. That’s it. In the last dozen years, no Day 3 pick has led an NFL franchise for any notable length of time. The Tom Brady legend (2000 sixth-round pick with 3 Super Bowls, 2 NFL MVPs, superdupermodel wife, twin mansions surrounded by moats) is in fact the greatest draft anomaly of all time.

The Cowboys swung and missed on Carter in the 2001 second round, and McGee – Jerry’s famous “war daddy” pick at the top of the 2009 fourth round – was among the infamous 0-for-12 class. The franchise has refused to invest significant developmental money in the position during Romo’s prime, and the numbers support their hesitancy.

Truth be told, the percentages stand fiercely against every team that needs a franchise guy. Since 2001:

First Round – 13 of 36 (36%)
Second Round – 2 of 16 (12%)
Third Round – 2 of 16 (12%)
Fourth-Seventh Round – 0 of 92 (0%)

Romo, of course, doesn’t count because he wasn’t drafted. That he has parlayed a skimpy $10,000 rookie free agent signing bonus into consecutive contract extensions of $67.5 million and $108 million, respectively, is ripped from Charles Perrault fairy tale. With one playoff win to Romo’s credit in eight seasons, haters will argue they’ve been suffering through a Tim Burton nightmare.

We all know the Cowboys have too many defensive holes to go QB hunting in the first three rounds. Part of their troubles are self-inflicted. Because they have missed on so many guys, particularly from 2008 to 2009, they are constantly drafting replacements players for the previous picks that didn’t pan out. It’s a vicious cycle that freezes any depth-building momentum.

The one mitigating factor may be Romo’s bad back. If, for some reason, the team grows concerned about his recovery by April, then perhaps a high-round quarterback comes into play in early May.

We’ll see. For now, let’s enjoy the Pro Bowl. It’s fantasy football … for real!
 

Smitty

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Reconfigure those stats, separating out first round, and high first round (top 5 or top 10).

Then see what you get.

I suspect you'll see that trading the farm for a franchise QB isn't bad, as long as you nail it.
 

NoDak

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I suspect you'll see that trading the farm for a franchise QB isn't bad, as long as you nail it.
You don't say...

Betting your entire life savings on one spin of a roulette wheel isn't bad, as long as you win.
 

Smitty

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You don't say...

Betting your entire life savings on one spin of a roulette wheel isn't bad, as long as you win.
The difference between trading up for a QB and a complete roll of the dice is, when you draft the QB, you can actually evaluate the player and feel good about your selection based on your research.
 

Clay_Allison

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The difference between trading up for a QB and a complete roll of the dice is, when you draft the QB, you can actually evaluate the player and feel good about your selection based on your research.
QBs are pretty hard to scout. That's why so many teams do a poor job of it. There are some who have obvious flaws to steer clear of, but some busts you don't see coming.
 

L.T. Fan

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The difference between trading up for a QB and a complete roll of the dice is, when you draft the QB, you can actually evaluate the player and feel good about your selection based on your research.
I am sure teams have felt good about their selections in the draft when they occured but QBs taking priority has been a huge gamble in the past. They can bust as easy as they can succeed. Just to cite a couple I give you Vince Young and Matt Lienhart. It's a big gamble going after a QB early.
 

NoDak

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The difference between trading up for a QB and a complete roll of the dice is, when you draft the QB, you can actually evaluate the player and feel good about your selection based on your research.
The point of that post was the "as long as you nail it" part.

Any decision ever made would be good, "as long as you nail it".
 

Clay_Allison

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I am sure teams have felt good about their selections in the draft when they occured but QBs taking priority has been a huge gamble in the past. They can bust as easy as they can succeed. Just to cite a couple I give you Vince Young and Matt Lienhart. It's a big gamble going after a QB early.
Smitty was a big fan of Matt Leinart too.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I am sure teams have felt good about their selections in the draft when they occured but QBs taking priority has been a huge gamble in the past. They can bust as easy as they can succeed. Just to cite a couple I give you Vince Young and Matt Lienhart. It's a big gamble going after a QB early.
There are certain QBs that are almost no risk prospects but they only come around once in a blue moon. You don't see Andrew Lucks sitting out there every year and when you do it probably doesn't matter what you have to trade up with, you're not going to get that QB.

I do agree with the articles opinion that it is near impossible to find a franchise QB outside of the first 3 rounds. Teams are so desperate for QB talent that any prospect with a lick of talent is usually gone by the end of the third round. Of course you also have to keep in mind that QB's drafted outside of the top 3 rounds are rarely given the same opportunities as a top 10 pick. A top ten pick at QB is going to be given a chance to start within the first couple years of his career. Someone in the fourth or fifth round will be lucky if they are given the opportunity to legitimately contend for the backup QB spot. An example of this may be the Washington Redskins. Kirk Cousin's could legitimately be the better of their two QB options but Griffin is going to be given every opportunity first because of his draft position.
 

Cotton

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I am sure teams have felt good about their selections in the draft when they occured but QBs taking priority has been a huge gamble in the past. They can bust as easy as they can succeed. Just to cite a couple I give you Vince Young and Matt Lienhart. It's a big gamble going after a QB early.
Ryan Leaf
 

dallen

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This will be a long thread if we start naming every first round QB bust
 

Smitty

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The point of that post was the "as long as you nail it" part.

Any decision ever made would be good, "as long as you nail it".
Yes, of course that is true.

It's gonna set you back if you trade two firsts and a second for one first which you use on a QB and miss.

But of course its gonna set you back if you spend one later first on a QB and miss as well.... arguably, despite having the extra first and second round pick, you're still in no position to succeed if you don't have the franchise QB.

So I have no problem with getting the guy you feel is the right guy and paying a premium to do so.
 
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