Am I Being Realistic

Smitty · Oct 1, 2014

Iamtdg said:
We were in the bottom 3rd in the league in two years you tried to use as proof that Garrett ran "a lot". Your argument is invalid.

My argument is that if we fixed the line, we'd see the running game improve and the carries go up. Something I said long, long ago, by the way, before these lines in the sand regarding Garrett had been drawn like they are now.

I never said that Garrett would be running the ball 500 times a season, just that it would be way up, comparatively to the last couple seasons where our line has sucked and we've been running it around the 330-350 mark, which everyone wrongfully attributed to Garrett just "not wanting to run it" more than that.

If you want to say 420 or so still isn't "a lot" then fine, we can say that it's not "a lot" but its a lot more than the last 3 years.

Rev · Oct 1, 2014

mschmidt64 said:
Actually, I just looked on PFR.

It was four times in the first six weeks that they were under 4 yards per carry.

Week 1 Giants - 3.78 ypc
Week 2 KC - 2.31 ypc
Week 5 Denver - 3.71 ypc
Week 6 Washington - 2.52 ypc

And for good measure, also

Week 7 Philly - 2.84 ypc

So actually 5 out of the first 7 weeks by my count. Are my numbers wrong?

I didnt look at team rushing. Just Murray.

Smitty · Oct 1, 2014

Rev said:
I didnt look at team rushing. Just Murray.

Well those numbers above do not look good. I can see why it would leave a coach thinking "Gee, we can't really run the ball that well right now."

If you look at team rushing numbers the last 6 games of the season, it starts to look a little like this season (except Philly -- but Romo was out so that explains that one). That is where, during in-game scenarios, Garrett is at fault for not realizing the running game was working and sticking with it.

But to strut around here chirping about "5.3" as if it tells the story of the season is short sighted. We weren't a strong running team for about the first half of the year. I can see how it might take a coach a half season to come to the realization that he should start leaning on the run more.

To be fair... I think we did have a couple 25+ carry games down the stretch there as well.

Cotton · Oct 1, 2014

mschmidt64 said:
My argument is that if we fixed the line, we'd see the running game improve and the carries go up. Something I said long, long ago, by the way, before these lines in the sand regarding Garrett had been drawn like they are now.

I never said that Garrett would be running the ball 500 times a season, just that it would be way up, comparatively to the last couple seasons where our line has sucked and we've been running it around the 330-350 mark, which everyone wrongfully attributed to Garrett just "not wanting to run it" more than that.

If you want to say 420 or so still isn't "a lot" then fine, we can say that it's not "a lot" but its a lot more than the last 3 years.

Bottom 3rd in the league in both years you are quoted as referring to years we ran the ball a lot. He didn't commit to it then, and he got much worse later, I agree. He also never came back until one Linehan came in and made him.

Cotton · Oct 1, 2014

Rev said:
I didnt look at team rushing. Just Murray.

BOOM!

Cotton · Oct 1, 2014

mschmidt64 said:
Well those numbers above do not look good. I can see why it would leave a coach thinking "Gee, we can't really run the ball that well right now."

If you look at team rushing numbers the last 6 games of the season, it starts to look a little like this season (except Philly -- but Romo was out so that explains that one). That is where, during in-game scenarios, Garrett is at fault for not realizing the running game was working and sticking with it.

But to strut around here chirping about "5.3" as if it tells the story of the season is short sighted. We weren't a strong running team for about the first half of the year.

Those numbers also take into account sacks which greatly reduce YPA. They aren't a true account of what Murray was doing.

Cotton · Oct 1, 2014

It's like Smitty and Hostile are one. They are the only two that can see what is being built here. Some day the rest of us peasants will come around.

Smitty · Oct 1, 2014

Iamtdg said:
Bottom 3rd in the league in both years you are quoted as referring to years we ran the ball a lot.

I expect that if Garrett was calling plays right now, with this line, we'd be likely to finish around the 420-440 mark for the season, as opposed to the 480-500 I expect with Linehan calling plays.

Garrett will always be pass happy. But I could live with us rushing it in that range. If we could have run it with the same effectiveness all year last year, and gotten 420-440 carries, we would have made the playoffs.

He also never came back until one Linehan came in and made him.

Linehan is not "making" him do anything. Do you think that Linehan is calling all these runs and it's a surprise to Garrett?

They go over this shit during the week. Garrett is clearly saying "Yes... I agree... call all these runs, it is our best chance to win, you have my support." If he didn't agree with what Linehan was doing in terms of gameplanning, he'd be ending it.

Smitty · Oct 1, 2014

Iamtdg said:
It's like Smitty and Hostile are one. They are the only two that can see what is being built here. Some day the rest of us peasants will come around.

You know, just because I happen to be more optimistic than average on this one issue, it does not make me "Hostile," the man who is incapable of seeing anything negative with the team.

At least you can't accuse me of being a blind pessimist about everything.

Those numbers also take into account sacks which greatly reduce YPA.

I don't think that is correct. Does it say that somewhere?

Edit: I just looked, it is not taking into account sacks. It is taking into account QB rushes, but not sacks. For example, Dallas was sacked twice in the Giants game for a loss of 19 yards. Yet on Romo's "runs" it says two carries for -1 yards. Not -19 yards.

QB runs I'm sure are weighing it down a little -- but those are factored into the league average anyway, so when we say "4.0 is the league average" that is also taking into account those QB runs. Either way, we are under average those weeks.

Cotton · Oct 1, 2014

mschmidt64 said:
I expect that if Garrett was calling plays right now, with this line, we'd be likely to finish around the 420-440 mark for the season, as opposed to the 480-500 I expect with Linehan calling plays.

You have no basis for this assumption. It has already been proven that Garrett never did and never will commit to the run if he is the one making the calls. Try again.

Linehan is not "making" him do anything. Do you think that Linehan is calling all these runs and it's a surprise to Garrett?

They go over this shit during the week. Garrett is clearly saying "Yes... I agree... call all these runs, it is our best chance to win, you have my support." If he didn't agree with what Linehan was doing in terms of gameplanning, he'd be ending it.

Garrett was clearly out of his depth and probably was asking Jerry to bring in Linehan to help. For that, alone, he gets credit. Once brought in, Linehan had full control and Garrett at that point had very little input to game planning, and more importantly, play calls.

data · Oct 1, 2014

I just pulled these statistics from Football Outsiders Almanac.

First number is percentage of that run/pass being executed. The second number is 'Rank amongst 32 NFL teams', meaning #1 being the team with the most with this type of play.

I included 2007 and 2008 because our OL was above average then, enabling visibility to 100% Garrett's run/pass playcalling.

Type	2013	2012	2011	2010	2008	2007
Runs on 1st down	43%, 25	35%, 26	45%, 27	42%, 29	46%, 25	48%, 20
Runs on 3rd/4th down and 2 yards & less	45%, 30	55%, 17	53%, 23	59%, 17	68%, 14	76%, 2
Passes ahead in 2nd Half	60%, 3	53%, 7	44%, 16	47%, 9	49%, 7	42%, 22

jsmith6919 · Oct 1, 2014

mschmidt64 said:
Linehan is not "making" him do anything. Do you think that Linehan is calling all these runs and it's a surprise to Garrett?

They go over this shit during the week. Garrett is clearly saying "Yes... I agree... call all these runs, it is our best chance to win, you have my support." If he didn't agree with what Linehan was doing in terms of gameplanning, he'd be ending it.

Smitty · Oct 1, 2014

Iamtdg said:
You have no basis for this assumption.

Uh..... 2007-08 he ran 401 and 420 times, with an OL not as good as this one. That is my basis.... it happened. He could and would run it the same with this much improved OL.

My basis is also the fact that Linehan, when he didn't have an OL, ran it much less (under 400) as well. So we know that an improved OL can turn a pass-happy playcaller into a run-heavy playcaller, and to say "a leopard can't change his spots because of personnel" is therefore false.

Garrett was clearly out of his depth and probably was asking Jerry to bring in Linehan to help. For that, alone, he gets credit. Once brought in, Linehan had full control and Garrett at that point had very little input to game planning, and more importantly, play calls.

I do believe Linehan is calling the plays, but not that Garrett has zero input in the offensive design. That's just naivety no matter what Jerry says about it.

Cotton · Oct 1, 2014

mschmidt64 said:
Uh..... 2007-08 he ran 401 and 420 times, with an OL not as good as this one. That is my basis.... it happened. He could and would run it the same with this much improved OL.

Bottom 3rd of the league both years.

My basis is also the fact that Linehan, when he didn't have an OL, ran it much less (under 400) as well. So we know that an improved OL can turn a pass-happy playcaller into a run-heavy playcaller, and to say "a leopard can't change his spots because of personnel" is therefore false.

So, Linehan has shown (as he has done in the past) that he can adjust. Garrett (as has been proven in the past) can't. Thank you for supporting my point.

jsmith6919 · Oct 1, 2014

mschmidt64 said:
Uh..... 2007-08 he ran 401 and 420 times, with an OL not as good as this one. That is my basis.... it happened. He could and would run it the same with this much improved OL.

My basis is also the fact that Linehan, when he didn't have an OL, ran it much less (under 400) as well. So we know that an improved OL can turn a pass-happy playcaller into a run-heavy playcaller, and to say "a leopard can't change his spots because of personnel" is therefore false.

I do believe Linehan is calling the plays, but not that Garrett has zero input in the offensive design. That's just naivety no matter what Jerry says about it.

Not only does Garrett have zero input Jerry was going on about how Linehan actually adjusts the plays/playcalling during the game and that is something we have never done while Romo has been here

Cotton · Oct 1, 2014

jsmith6919 said:
Not only does Garrett have zero input Jerry was going on about how Linehan actually adjusts the plays/playcalling during the game and that is something we have never done while Romo has been here

Dude, please leave Garrett out of this. He is trying to like wait for his talent to help him play call, and stuff.

jsmith6919 · Oct 1, 2014

Iamtdg said:
Dude, please leave Garrett out of this. He is trying to like wait for his talent to help him play call, and stuff.

Yea I know, players just have to execute and stuff

Cotton · Oct 1, 2014

jsmith6919 said:
Yea I know, players just have to execute and stuff

He's the Rob Pettiti of coaches.

data · Oct 1, 2014

mschmidt64 said:
Uh..... 2007-08 he ran 401 and 420 times

2007 = 36 rushes by Tony Romo/Brad Johnson. Likely scrambles or QB sneaks
2008 = 30 rushes by Tony Romo/Brad Johnson. Likely scrambles or QB sneaks

Am I Being Realistic

DCC 4Life

DCC 4Life

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun

DCC 4Life

One-armed Knife Sharpener

One-armed Knife Sharpener

One-armed Knife Sharpener

One-armed Knife Sharpener

DCC 4Life

DCC 4Life

One-armed Knife Sharpener

Forbes #1

Honored Member - RIP

DCC 4Life

One-armed Knife Sharpener

Honored Member - RIP

One-armed Knife Sharpener

Honored Member - RIP

One-armed Knife Sharpener

Forbes #1