Sturm: Decoding Linehan - The Education of Dak Prescott Continues

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm, Special contributor

One of the most cliched "coachisms" is when they discuss things that need to be better, despite the final score looking favorably on an effort. "It is better to learn after a win." The idea that a guy is already beat up after a loss. You don't need to keep punishing him in the film room. Sometimes, you have no choice, but isn't it better to look at this film after a win?

In other words, how good can a team or player get if you can still win a game with this much that we can do better?

The Cowboys won a game on Sunday that looked like a loss for most of it. In fact, they were down to about a 5% chance of winning early in the 4th Quarter if you believe win probabilities.

And they won a game with a rookie QB looking quite a bit like a rookie QB for much of the game. He was rattled, confused, and looked plenty "off".

And the great news is he kept fighting and scrapping and refusing to get discouraged. He looked a very impressive opponent in the face and asked, "is that all you got?" He is a very impressive young man and I am sure he will be better from this performance.

The crazy part? He also just did something that Tony Romo never accomplished. On Sunday, Dak Prescott led the Cowboys to yet another 400-yard offensive day. This was the Cowboys 5th in a row and if you go back to 2006 - the start of Romo's era - you cannot find a streak longer than 4. In fact, you can find several seasons where they didn't have 5 400-yard days all season (2006, 2008, 2013, and 2015). Prescott has just engineered 5 straight. With his 5th being a day where he knows he had a rough day and that there were yards everywhere to be had.

This is life in the NFL. This is the growth process. That Eagles game will be tough for him to watch, but it will no-doubt make him a better QB.

We are going to look at 7 plays here where the offense looked "off" and try to find reasons for it. We will mostly ignore the good plays from the offense to keep this blog reasonable in length, but we also realize anyone reading this piece knows that we don't have to offer "equal time" to make everyone feel warm and fuzzy. You watched the game. You know about the good plays, too. Let's try to figure out what the Eagles were doing so well.

First, they were blitzing a lot. They brought more pressure than anyone all season - by quite a bit. This, despite the Eagles not being a pressure team all season before the Vikings game.



Now, here are some of these problematic plays from Sunday:



First drive, 3rd and 12. This is a throw Dak has made all year. The Eagles are bringing one more than the Cowboys can block, but he does have Beasley out by the sticks. Just a poor throw. But, look at the blitz arriving. Prescott now knows that 3rd and long is going to be an adventure if Jim Schwartz is going to test him hard.



2nd down and 9, Cowboys go 12 personnel and want to set up play-action. Now, if you do that, understand that you only have 2 receivers in route. The Eagles are prepared for the Cowboys tendencies and know that 12 personnel with 88 and 83 on the same side means that 88 is likely the guy to attract the attention deep, so Terrance Williams will run an outside breaking route underneath Dez to the sideline. That is where Dak goes.

Instead, 95-Kendricks the LB, has done his film study and he is going to undercut that favorite route. Dak is going to see that and throw the ball away. If he throws it right at Williams, Kendricks might walk into the end zone. This is actually a good decision, although it looked bad on Sunday.



Here is that end-zone interception. You can see that the Eagles are using Cover-1 with a rat in the hole to basically play Safety underneath and read Dak's eyes. This might be the small issue with overconfidence from a QB. You start to ignore what you know. In the red zone, you just can't flirt with traffic. It is a quick instinct game, but that throw to the flat for Beasley is where you have a numbers advantage and it is only 2nd down. At worst, you want a field goal. Don't play with all of that traffic inside. He tried to use Witten as a decoy and Jordan Hicks knew that trick. Very poor decision.



3rd and 8 and the Eagles go Cover 0! No safety. That means they can bring one more than you can block and Dak must get rid of the ball quick. Look to the bottom where the Cowboys have everyone but Dez and it looks like Beasley and Williams are running into each other. Dak has no choice. I don't think he is trying to hook up with Dez as much as he is just trying to get rid of it here. I don't blame him for being surprised that the Eagles are playing Cover 0. They don't do that much, but that was their plan all night. Blitz and blitz and blitz some more. That blitz total above is just on pass plays, but they were run-blitzing all night, too.



This is 3rd and Goal from the 5. Cowboys are down 20-10 and this is the drive with the long fake punt. The pressure right now is maximized and Dak just wants to make a play. But, man, you just can' t do this. This is his teaching moment. I imagine he will look at this with Scott Linehan and decide to never try this again. Williams saves him with an offensive pass interference, but this is just poor QB play, in the name of trying to make something special happen.



The boys up front look fooled here. The Eagles bluff a blitz and then back off one side. This makes the Cowboys slide protection to the left which then leaves a free guy off Doug Free's outside shoulder. Now he comes untouched and again, with 3:19 to play, you have to know it is 1st down. On 1st down, we don't play "hero ball". Throw the ball out of bounds. Instead, he tries to make the guy miss and still get it out to Brice Butler. And the corner out there almost ends the game. Very luck this one is not picked off and the dream ends there. But, to Dak's credit, he threw the game-tying touchdown on the very next play. Sometimes, it is better to be lucky than good. Other times, it helps to be both.



This last one is just another Cover 0 blitz as the Eagles are now just rolling the dice to stay in the game. Man, they were risky. And here, the Cowboys have a chance to end the game.

Unfortunately, Dez and Dak are not on the same page. Again, we have Witten and Butler running into each other, but with no safety, all you have to do is throw it out there and Dez should at least put you in field goal range. Just put air under the ball and hope he can find it. I am not saying this is QB error, because I would love to know what happened. But, wow, this is the game right here on a stick. What a missed opportunity that hopefully, next time, won't get away.

So, you may read this and look at these clips and say you need Romo back. I would caution that thinkingbecause Romo against this Eagles blitz may not last physically until halftime. The Eagles were not playing around on Sunday and the fact that Dak survived, had a 99 QB rating in the 2nd half, and engineered several late scoring drives says a lot. Romo is a great player, but I am not sure you beat the Eagles without a fully mobile and strong QB like Prescott.

In other words, a win with 460 yards of offense is his bad day. What a story this kid is.

WEEKLY DATA BOX



You can see above a few things that stick out. For me, we are seeing some regression on 3rd down. Over the last 2 weeks, the Cowboys have slowed their ridiculous pace on 3rd down and have gone just 7 for 25 against Green Bay and Philadelphia. That is far below the 50% they were at before that stretch.

We also haven't even looked at the running game, but make no mistake, they were challenged and pretty much shut down from outside runs, but they kept plugging away and eventually found success in the middle with that Ezekiel Elliott battering ram.

DAK PRESCOTT PASSING CHART



A rough day for sure, but those 20-yard outs are turning into his bread and butter. He is starting to hit those deep outs. This one in overtime wasn't pretty, but it was certainly effective:



That was maybe his best throw of the night. Look at Witten get across in pass protection and look at Dak - now 3 hours into his night - still standing tall in the pocket amidst the chaos.
And that pass made this one possible:



From the end zone:



Speaking of people running into each other, this time it worked in the Cowboys favor.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS



This chart shows me that the Eagles defensive personnel was not scared about the Cowboys multiple TE packages that killed the Bengals and Packers so much. Look at 12 and 13 personnel and the yards per carry. 12 carries for 25 yards and then on play action they hit a few times out of this look, but nothing too damaging.

The Eagles were very well scouted and put together for this game. Their corners held up in man coverage and they kept Zeke from getting loose. I am very impressed with how the Eagles defense matched up. I am sure they are encouraged about what this could mean going forward for their fortunes if they could build an offense that could complicate their defense. Because right now, they are out there by themselves, it seems.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

"It is better to learn after a win."

There was nothing easy or pretty about that. But, I do think it is a major step in the maturation process of the team and its rookie QB. They were productive and wasteful all at the same time, which is a hard thing to do in this league.

They should expect more blitzes and expect teams to examine the Eagles' moderate success and try to steal those ideas. In other words, plan on more blitzes this autumn.

But, what a start for this offense. They appear to be very powerful and once Dez and Dak get on the same page, you can see more opportunities ahead.
 

Cotton

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Perfect example of Dak throwing off his back foot and it affecting his accuracy. Gotta get that cleaned up.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Perfect example of Dak throwing off his back foot and it affecting his accuracy. Gotta get that cleaned up.
Yeah it's hard to set your feet when the defense is bringing 7 rushers. That's one that I'd like to see him just chuck deep. You know they have zero safety help and DBs tend to panic on those balls. Or having anyone running a damn crossing route over the middle. Just seems like when they blitzed, we had terrible passing routes going. Take Witten out of that spot and have any WR run a slant from there and it's an easy completion and first down and could go the distance based on the coverage.

To me this play is the epitome of bad coaching and play calling.
 

Cotton

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Yeah it's hard to set your feet when the defense is bringing 7 rushers. That's one that I'd like to see him just chuck deep. You know they have zero safety help and DBs tend to panic on those balls. Or having anyone running a damn crossing route over the middle. Just seems like when they blitzed, we had terrible passing routes going. Take Witten out of that spot and have any WR run a slant from there and it's an easy completion and first down and could go the distance based on the coverage.

To me this play is the epitome of bad coaching and play calling.
I think he had time to plant his foot. This is bad mechanics and he needs to focus on it. You can't always rely on arm strength, or you end up throwing short, just like this.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I think he had time to plant his foot. This is bad mechanics and he needs to focus on it. You can't always rely on arm strength, or you end up throwing short, just like this.
Just seems like a tough throw to expect your QB to complete against a 7 man blitz. We clearly were not prepared for the Eagles to bring those types of pressures. And I'm really not sure why since the Eagles defensive coordinator came out before the game and basically said Dak hasn't faced pressure all year and he is going to make sure he does.

The middle of the field is just wide open. Slants are some of the easiest passes to complete against that type of blitz and instead we literally have no one running a hot route. Those are the plays were a quick slant goes 70 yards because no one is in position to make the tackle except the one DB covering your receiver.
 

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In other words, a win with 460 yards of offense is his bad day. What a story this kid is.
And that's what I took from that game.

He did this on a bad night. So much potential for him personally and for this season.

I am trying so hard not to dream, but sometimes I find myself doing just that.
 

Cowboysrock55

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And that's what I took from that game.

He did this on a bad night. So much potential for him personally and for this season.

I am trying so hard not to dream, but sometimes I find myself doing just that.
Remember when a bad night out of our QB was 5 INTs?
 

Jiggyfly

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Yeah it's hard to set your feet when the defense is bringing 7 rushers. That's one that I'd like to see him just chuck deep. You know they have zero safety help and DBs tend to panic on those balls. Or having anyone running a damn crossing route over the middle. Just seems like when they blitzed, we had terrible passing routes going. Take Witten out of that spot and have any WR run a slant from there and it's an easy completion and first down and could go the distance based on the coverage.

To me this play is the epitome of bad coaching and play calling.
He had a guy open for the 1st down how is that bad play calling.

Also this was the 1st series of the game it's kind of had to get an idea of what they are doing on the 1st series.

We still put up over 400 yards when Dak was less than a 50% passer and with several big plays called back I don't see how this is on coaching at all.
 

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Perfect example of Dak throwing off his back foot and it affecting his accuracy. Gotta get that cleaned up.
His INT was the same thing. Weight falling back while throwing.

His mechanics for a lot of that game were hot garbage. Maybe it was being caused by the rush, or not. I don't know. I do know he needs to clean that crap up before it becomes habit.
 

Cowboysrock55

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He had a guy open for the 1st down how is that bad play calling.
Because it's a difficult pass to complete with a free rusher? When you could have a completion that is a million times easier against a blitz like that with far more potential for a big gain? You've heard people say that you should throw into the blitz? We did the opposite there.
 

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His INT was the same thing. Weight falling back while throwing.

His mechanics for a lot of that game were hot garbage. Maybe it was being caused by the rush, or not. I don't know. I do know he needs to clean that crap up before it becomes habit.
The good thing is, we won. It's much easier to stomach the lack of focus when you end up on top. He can learn from this and get better. With how the coaches and other players talk about his work ethic, I have no doubt he will get it corrected.
 

Jiggyfly

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Because it's a difficult pass to complete with a free rusher? When you could have a completion that is a million times easier against a blitz like that with far more potential for a big gain? You've heard people say that you should throw into the blitz? We did the opposite there.
It's no more difficult than what you are talking about it was 3rd and 12.

And Beasley was wide open.

I have seen him set his feet under much more pressure he was barley hit.

I don't understand why you would think he would have any better mechanics on any other throw, he was just off.
 

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He had a guy open for the 1st down how is that bad play calling.

Also this was the 1st series of the game it's kind of had to get an idea of what they are doing on the 1st series.

We still put up over 400 yards when Dak was less than a 50% passer and with several big plays called back I don't see how this is on coaching at all.
400 yards and 30 (29) points.

That's impressive.
 

Cowboysrock55

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It's no more difficult than what you are talking about it was 3rd and 12.

And Beasley was wide open.

I have seen him set his feet under much more pressure he was barley hit.

I don't understand why you would think he would have any better mechanics on any other throw, he was just off.
Because a 13 yard out pass to the sideline is a difficult throw to make. It's a throw many NFL QBs struggle with (Dak usually doesn't). A slant right in front of the QB is a throw that even the worst NFL QBs can complete. Just think about the distance the ball travels when you throw starting on the right hash to the left sideline. And with normal pocket conditions you don't worry about it. But when a defense is handing you the easy completion on a silver platter with the stupid blitz concept, you take it. You don't ask your QB to make a difficult throw even more difficult with a free blitzer.
 

L.T. Fan

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His INT was the same thing. Weight falling back while throwing.

His mechanics for a lot of that game were hot garbage. Maybe it was being caused by the rush, or not. I don't know. I do know he needs to clean that crap up before it becomes habit.
I think it is caused by the rush as well. He has been a qb long enough to know not to throw off your back foot but the circumstances of being covered up puts him in a panic mode to not get sacked. This happens to a lot of QBs and it automatic. He will have to program himself to take a sack or throw it away. That will come with experience.
 

Jiggyfly

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Because a 13 yard out pass to the sideline is a difficult throw to make. It's a throw many NFL QBs struggle with (Dak usually doesn't). A slant right in front of the QB is a throw that even the worst NFL QBs can complete. Just think about the distance the ball travels when you throw starting on the right hash to the left sideline. And with normal pocket conditions you don't worry about it. But when a defense is handing you the easy completion on a silver platter with the stupid blitz concept, you take it. You don't ask your QB to make a difficult throw even more difficult with a free blitzer.
That pass was not that hard he made a more difficult throw to Beasley in OT.

It's pretty simple he did not set his feet something that he has been doing all year with just as much pressure.
 

Cowboysrock55

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This round goes to Jiggy.
:lol

Yeah, because a slow developing pass play on a lower percentage throw against a 7 man blitz is smart. GTFO

I didn't think I'd have to explain that repeatedly to get it through to you and Jiggy.
 

Smitty

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:lol

Yeah, because a slow developing pass play on a lower percentage throw against a 7 man blitz is smart. GTFO

I didn't think I'd have to explain that repeatedly to get it through to you and Jiggy.
You are more playcall nitpicking. There is a difference between not the 100% best playcall and a bad playcall.

Same as one one of the series' down by the goal line where Dak underthrew Bryant who was wide open in the corner of the end zone. Yeah, would have been safer to pound away between the tackles but Bryant was open and Dak just missed; can't say when the scheme dials up a play that should have been successful but for the execution that it was a bad playcall.

Yeah it's harder to get off a pass in the face of a rusher but not impossible or even unlikely. If his mechanics were correct would the pass probably have been complete? At some point you have to trust your players to be mechanically correct even in the face of pressure.
 

Jiggyfly

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:lol

Yeah, because a slow developing pass play on a lower percentage throw against a 7 man blitz is smart. GTFO

I didn't think I'd have to explain that repeatedly to get it through to you and Jiggy.
He has made that same throw plenty of times in other games under as much pressure.

You act like he has never seen a guy come free all year.

He made a much tougher pass under the same circumstances here.




I really don't know what you are disputing?
 
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