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Championship game predictions
The key factors that will influence Patriots-Broncos and 49ers-Seahawks
Updated: January 15, 2014, 10:42 PM ET
By Herm Edwards | ESPN Insider
After another exciting weekend of playoff football, the four best teams in the NFL remain. In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers, coming off two straight postseason road wins, travel to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team they lost to 29-3 in Week 2 and 19-17 in Week 14. In the AFC, the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots, who beat them 34-31 in OT in New England in Week 12.
Will Peyton Manning reach his third Super Bowl or will Tom Brady reach his sixth? Will the 49ers make it back-to-back Super Bowl appearances or will Seattle get back into the big game for the first time since 2006?
Let's preview each game by looking at which team has the advantage on offense, defense and special teams, along with an X factor. I'll also give my pick on each game.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Offense: Brady and Bill Belichick are the constants on this team, but I've been very impressed with how this offense has adjusted to fit the personnel at its disposal. Without Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, they've turned into a power running team over the course of this season. Their big plays come off of play-action, and LeGarrette Blount has revitalized his career in New England. This is a guy who has enough speed to take it the distance but the power to run over people, as well.
The Patriots like to bring in Michael Hoomanawanui as a sixth offensive lineman to pair with James Develin at fullback and dictate tempo. New England's offensive line has done a great job of blocking eight-man fronts and getting to the second level of the defense. According to ESPN Stats & Information, they have averaged 5.8 yards per rush and 200.3 yards per game inside the tackles the past three games. And Blount had 146 rush yards before contact, so this O-line is simply moving defenders out of the way. On third downs, Brady has looked for Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen coming out of the backfield (they combined for 20 of his 25 passing targets on Sunday). The Patriots can go no-huddle to change the tempo, but they need to run the ball effectively to win this game.
We all know what Manning can do at this point in his career, and he played a terrific game on Sunday against San Diego. He has a great receiving corps and likes to read the defense from the inside out, working in between the hashmarks. He's a pure distributor of the football, will find the open man and notices the smallest details of defensive coverages. If New England loads up the box with eight men to stop the run, he'll throw it out to Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker and give them a chance to beat a cornerback one-on-one on the outside.
Denver's rushing attack has also improved over the course of the season (15th in the regular season with 117.1 yards per game), and Manning won't be afraid to check to a run with Montee Ball or Knowshon Moreno if New England plays its safeties back. It will be a chess match between Belichick and Manning all game long.
Advantage: Even. These are both tremendous offenses with elite QBs, a variety of weapons and big playbooks.
Defense: Denver plays a 4-3 but uses 3-4 fronts and has struggled to get pressure on opposing QBs with Von Miller out. This defense is vulnerable on the back end and will be even more stressed with starting CB Chris Harris out with a torn ACL. Expect Belichick to target Quentin Jammer, who struggled against Keenan Allen in the second half on Sunday. Denver needs Shaun Phillips, Jeremy Mincey and others to get pressure on Brady, and it needs Terrance Knighton to eat up blockers in the middle and be stout against the run. Denver's top priority on defense must be stopping New England's rushing attack, ideally without bringing that eighth man into the box.
New England's defense uses both 4-3 and 3-4 fronts and is opportunistic, and Belichick does a great job of taking away the primary receiver on opposing offenses. He'll mix man and zone, and, even though it gives up yards, this defense clamps down in the red zone (16th in red zone TD percentage for the regular season). Jamie Collins jumped out to me last week and will be a huge factor if he can cover Julius Thomas without help. Aqib Talib is capable of blanketing one of Denver's pass-catchers, but I'm not sure New England has the personnel to keep up with Wes Welker in the slot.
Advantage: Slight edge to Denver.
Special teams: Both kickers have made clutch kicks in their careers, but Broncos return man Trindon Holliday makes the difference here. Decker averaged 22 yards a punt return on Sunday, and Holliday is a threat to score a TD any time he touches the ball. Edelman is shifty as a punt returner, but Blount isn't nearly as dynamic a returner as Holliday.
Advantage: Denver.
X factor: Talib. He is one corner who is fast enough to stick with Demaryius Thomas on the outside but physical enough to cover Julius Thomas when he flexes out. It will be very interesting to see how Belichick deploys Talib and which strength he tries to take away from Manning. I love Talib's ball skills and ability to be physical with WRs at the line of scrimmage. He must play well for New England to win.
Prediction: Manning played a terrific game in the divisional round against San Diego, but, as we saw, he needs help from his teammates. Decker bobbled a perfect pass, turning it into an interception, and Julius Thomas had a costly fumble. Peyton's playmakers need to show up for this one. I picked Denver before the season to make the Super Bowl, and I think the Broncos get it done here. This offense is too good and the defense should be able to slow down Brady & Co. just enough to get the win. Broncos.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Offense: There is no question that Seattle's passing offense is struggling right now. Russell Wilson missed some throws on inside slants that he needs to make on Sunday, but his cast of WRs isn't very strong. There is no one on the outside who scares a defense, with the exception of Percy Harvin (and his status is unknown), and they don't threaten defenses vertically. As a result, Wilson is holding the ball too long and not trusting his initial reads, as he showed on several occasions against the Saints on Sunday.
The rushing game has been tremendous with Marshawn Lynch, who had an amazing 66 of 140 rushing yards on Sunday after contact, but they've been bailed out by their defense too often. If they can't run the ball against San Francisco's stout front seven, this offense will struggle to move the ball.
On the other side, San Francisco's offense is evolving and has been a different unit since Michael Crabtree returned in Week 13. With Vernon Davis healthy, they now have two pass-catchers who can win one-on-one against man coverage. Having both of them on the field also means more space for Anquan Boldin to operate. Boldin had a big game on Sunday in Carolina (eight catches, 136 yards) but really struggled against Seattle's press coverage in Week 2 (one catch, 4 yards).
The 49ers have one of the best offensive lines in the league and have been running the ball extremely effectively in the postseason, averaging 146.5 yards per game. Frank Gore is a very consistent runner between the tackles and is also terrific in blitz pickup. Colin Kaepernick has been making better decisions with the football but still has a few errant throws every game. He must make the correct reads against an opportunistic Seattle defense.
Advantage: San Francisco. The 49ers simply have a more dynamic unit right now.
Defense: This Seattle defense is arguably the best in the league and doesn't have any real weaknesses. It is even more dominant because of the imposing home-field advantage Seattle has with the 12th Man at CenturyLink Field. On the back end, Earl Thomas is terrific at diagnosing plays and has tremendous closing speed, and Richard Sherman can shut down any receiver in bump-and-run on the outside. Seattle's corners are very physical at the line of scrimmage and use their length very well to disrupt receivers.
The Seahawks' linebackers are very good both in pass coverage and against the run. Seattle has solid run defenders in the middle of the line like Red Bryant and an assortment of pass-rushers on the outside, including Bruce Irvin, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who can get to Kaepernick. They've been successful against San Francisco in the past by not having to blitz Kaepernick and getting to him with four pass-rushers. However, Seattle must make sure that its defensive ends are disciplined in their rush lanes and don't get too far upfield. Otherwise, Kaepernick can use his legs to his advantage. It's important to flush him to his left, as he likes to throw more on the run while going right.
San Francisco has a fantastic defensive unit, as well, including Aldon Smith and Justin Smith on the line and Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman at linebacker. They are stout against the run (third in the NFL during the regular season) and Willis and Bowman, like Seattle's linebackers, never have to come off the field because they can hold up in pass protection.
San Francisco's corners aren't as good as Seattle's but are very solid. If Carlos Rogers is healthy enough to play, that would provide a big boost for this unit.
Advantage: Seattle. With the 12th Man, this is the best defense in the league. They have a plus-11 turnover differential at home. If you get behind in down and distance, forget about moving the ball on them.
Special teams: Phil Dawson has been extremely consistent for the 49ers, as has Steven Hauschka for the Seahawks (both were 3-of-3 on field goals last week; Dawson is 6-of-6 in the postseason). Harvin and Golden Tate are much more dynamic returners than LaMichael James. Andy Lee is a great weapon to flip field position at punter for San Francisco.
Advantage: Seattle, especially if Harvin can play.
X factor: Harvin. There is a reason this team traded three picks, including a first-rounder, to get this guy. He is simply special in the open field and has elite acceleration and change-of-direction ability. You could see his impact last week when he ran a "jet" fly sweep for 9 yards in the second quarter. The next play, Harvin was lined up on the left in a bunch, three-WR set. The threat of Harvin drew the defense's attention (and personnel), allowing Lynch to score easily on a 15-yard draw play. Harvin is also a special kick returner.
Prediction: This is going to be a great game, and both teams are similarly built with a mobile QB, strong defense and the desire to run the ball. I'm a little nervous about Seattle's passing offense being able to move the ball, but I believe they'll do enough -- particularly running the ball with Lynch -- to build a lead. Once they get a lead, San Francisco won't be able to do enough on offense with that defense and crowd behind the Seahawks. Seattle moves on to New Jersey. Seahawks.
The key factors that will influence Patriots-Broncos and 49ers-Seahawks
Updated: January 15, 2014, 10:42 PM ET
By Herm Edwards | ESPN Insider
After another exciting weekend of playoff football, the four best teams in the NFL remain. In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers, coming off two straight postseason road wins, travel to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team they lost to 29-3 in Week 2 and 19-17 in Week 14. In the AFC, the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots, who beat them 34-31 in OT in New England in Week 12.
Will Peyton Manning reach his third Super Bowl or will Tom Brady reach his sixth? Will the 49ers make it back-to-back Super Bowl appearances or will Seattle get back into the big game for the first time since 2006?
Let's preview each game by looking at which team has the advantage on offense, defense and special teams, along with an X factor. I'll also give my pick on each game.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Offense: Brady and Bill Belichick are the constants on this team, but I've been very impressed with how this offense has adjusted to fit the personnel at its disposal. Without Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, they've turned into a power running team over the course of this season. Their big plays come off of play-action, and LeGarrette Blount has revitalized his career in New England. This is a guy who has enough speed to take it the distance but the power to run over people, as well.
The Patriots like to bring in Michael Hoomanawanui as a sixth offensive lineman to pair with James Develin at fullback and dictate tempo. New England's offensive line has done a great job of blocking eight-man fronts and getting to the second level of the defense. According to ESPN Stats & Information, they have averaged 5.8 yards per rush and 200.3 yards per game inside the tackles the past three games. And Blount had 146 rush yards before contact, so this O-line is simply moving defenders out of the way. On third downs, Brady has looked for Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen coming out of the backfield (they combined for 20 of his 25 passing targets on Sunday). The Patriots can go no-huddle to change the tempo, but they need to run the ball effectively to win this game.
We all know what Manning can do at this point in his career, and he played a terrific game on Sunday against San Diego. He has a great receiving corps and likes to read the defense from the inside out, working in between the hashmarks. He's a pure distributor of the football, will find the open man and notices the smallest details of defensive coverages. If New England loads up the box with eight men to stop the run, he'll throw it out to Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker and give them a chance to beat a cornerback one-on-one on the outside.
Denver's rushing attack has also improved over the course of the season (15th in the regular season with 117.1 yards per game), and Manning won't be afraid to check to a run with Montee Ball or Knowshon Moreno if New England plays its safeties back. It will be a chess match between Belichick and Manning all game long.
Advantage: Even. These are both tremendous offenses with elite QBs, a variety of weapons and big playbooks.
Defense: Denver plays a 4-3 but uses 3-4 fronts and has struggled to get pressure on opposing QBs with Von Miller out. This defense is vulnerable on the back end and will be even more stressed with starting CB Chris Harris out with a torn ACL. Expect Belichick to target Quentin Jammer, who struggled against Keenan Allen in the second half on Sunday. Denver needs Shaun Phillips, Jeremy Mincey and others to get pressure on Brady, and it needs Terrance Knighton to eat up blockers in the middle and be stout against the run. Denver's top priority on defense must be stopping New England's rushing attack, ideally without bringing that eighth man into the box.
New England's defense uses both 4-3 and 3-4 fronts and is opportunistic, and Belichick does a great job of taking away the primary receiver on opposing offenses. He'll mix man and zone, and, even though it gives up yards, this defense clamps down in the red zone (16th in red zone TD percentage for the regular season). Jamie Collins jumped out to me last week and will be a huge factor if he can cover Julius Thomas without help. Aqib Talib is capable of blanketing one of Denver's pass-catchers, but I'm not sure New England has the personnel to keep up with Wes Welker in the slot.
Advantage: Slight edge to Denver.
Special teams: Both kickers have made clutch kicks in their careers, but Broncos return man Trindon Holliday makes the difference here. Decker averaged 22 yards a punt return on Sunday, and Holliday is a threat to score a TD any time he touches the ball. Edelman is shifty as a punt returner, but Blount isn't nearly as dynamic a returner as Holliday.
Advantage: Denver.
X factor: Talib. He is one corner who is fast enough to stick with Demaryius Thomas on the outside but physical enough to cover Julius Thomas when he flexes out. It will be very interesting to see how Belichick deploys Talib and which strength he tries to take away from Manning. I love Talib's ball skills and ability to be physical with WRs at the line of scrimmage. He must play well for New England to win.
Prediction: Manning played a terrific game in the divisional round against San Diego, but, as we saw, he needs help from his teammates. Decker bobbled a perfect pass, turning it into an interception, and Julius Thomas had a costly fumble. Peyton's playmakers need to show up for this one. I picked Denver before the season to make the Super Bowl, and I think the Broncos get it done here. This offense is too good and the defense should be able to slow down Brady & Co. just enough to get the win. Broncos.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Offense: There is no question that Seattle's passing offense is struggling right now. Russell Wilson missed some throws on inside slants that he needs to make on Sunday, but his cast of WRs isn't very strong. There is no one on the outside who scares a defense, with the exception of Percy Harvin (and his status is unknown), and they don't threaten defenses vertically. As a result, Wilson is holding the ball too long and not trusting his initial reads, as he showed on several occasions against the Saints on Sunday.
The rushing game has been tremendous with Marshawn Lynch, who had an amazing 66 of 140 rushing yards on Sunday after contact, but they've been bailed out by their defense too often. If they can't run the ball against San Francisco's stout front seven, this offense will struggle to move the ball.
On the other side, San Francisco's offense is evolving and has been a different unit since Michael Crabtree returned in Week 13. With Vernon Davis healthy, they now have two pass-catchers who can win one-on-one against man coverage. Having both of them on the field also means more space for Anquan Boldin to operate. Boldin had a big game on Sunday in Carolina (eight catches, 136 yards) but really struggled against Seattle's press coverage in Week 2 (one catch, 4 yards).
The 49ers have one of the best offensive lines in the league and have been running the ball extremely effectively in the postseason, averaging 146.5 yards per game. Frank Gore is a very consistent runner between the tackles and is also terrific in blitz pickup. Colin Kaepernick has been making better decisions with the football but still has a few errant throws every game. He must make the correct reads against an opportunistic Seattle defense.
Advantage: San Francisco. The 49ers simply have a more dynamic unit right now.
Defense: This Seattle defense is arguably the best in the league and doesn't have any real weaknesses. It is even more dominant because of the imposing home-field advantage Seattle has with the 12th Man at CenturyLink Field. On the back end, Earl Thomas is terrific at diagnosing plays and has tremendous closing speed, and Richard Sherman can shut down any receiver in bump-and-run on the outside. Seattle's corners are very physical at the line of scrimmage and use their length very well to disrupt receivers.
The Seahawks' linebackers are very good both in pass coverage and against the run. Seattle has solid run defenders in the middle of the line like Red Bryant and an assortment of pass-rushers on the outside, including Bruce Irvin, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who can get to Kaepernick. They've been successful against San Francisco in the past by not having to blitz Kaepernick and getting to him with four pass-rushers. However, Seattle must make sure that its defensive ends are disciplined in their rush lanes and don't get too far upfield. Otherwise, Kaepernick can use his legs to his advantage. It's important to flush him to his left, as he likes to throw more on the run while going right.
San Francisco has a fantastic defensive unit, as well, including Aldon Smith and Justin Smith on the line and Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman at linebacker. They are stout against the run (third in the NFL during the regular season) and Willis and Bowman, like Seattle's linebackers, never have to come off the field because they can hold up in pass protection.
San Francisco's corners aren't as good as Seattle's but are very solid. If Carlos Rogers is healthy enough to play, that would provide a big boost for this unit.
Advantage: Seattle. With the 12th Man, this is the best defense in the league. They have a plus-11 turnover differential at home. If you get behind in down and distance, forget about moving the ball on them.
Special teams: Phil Dawson has been extremely consistent for the 49ers, as has Steven Hauschka for the Seahawks (both were 3-of-3 on field goals last week; Dawson is 6-of-6 in the postseason). Harvin and Golden Tate are much more dynamic returners than LaMichael James. Andy Lee is a great weapon to flip field position at punter for San Francisco.
Advantage: Seattle, especially if Harvin can play.
X factor: Harvin. There is a reason this team traded three picks, including a first-rounder, to get this guy. He is simply special in the open field and has elite acceleration and change-of-direction ability. You could see his impact last week when he ran a "jet" fly sweep for 9 yards in the second quarter. The next play, Harvin was lined up on the left in a bunch, three-WR set. The threat of Harvin drew the defense's attention (and personnel), allowing Lynch to score easily on a 15-yard draw play. Harvin is also a special kick returner.
Prediction: This is going to be a great game, and both teams are similarly built with a mobile QB, strong defense and the desire to run the ball. I'm a little nervous about Seattle's passing offense being able to move the ball, but I believe they'll do enough -- particularly running the ball with Lynch -- to build a lead. Once they get a lead, San Francisco won't be able to do enough on offense with that defense and crowd behind the Seahawks. Seattle moves on to New Jersey. Seahawks.
