MLB Chatter Thread

Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon
By Steve Adams [January 23, 2015 at 8:52am CST]

8:52am: Papelbon would want his $13MM option for the 2016 season to be guaranteed in order to waive his no-trade clause, Salisbury reports. That presents an expensive obstacle in trade talks, but Salisbury hears that the Phillies are committed to moving Papelbon and letting Ken Giles inherit the closer’s role. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that figuring out how much of Papelbon’s 2016 salary the Phillies would pay is the “last remaining obstacle” in trade talks.

8:18am: The 12 teams to which Papelbon cannot block trades are the Red Sox, Rays, Royals, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Mets, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Cubs and Padres, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (on Twitter).

Additionally, Rosenthal tweets that while the Blue Jays did reach out to the Phillies regarding Papelbon, their interest is still very limited. He adds that Papelbon has not yet been approached about waiving his no-trade clause for a move to the Brewers, indicating that talks have not yet reached advanced stages.

7:14am: The Brewers are indeed on Papelbon’s no-trade list, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Of course, that doesn’t mean that a deal can’t be worked out, particularly if Papelbon’s desire to have a chance at winning is still his primary focus. Rosenthal notes that the Phillies would need to send money to Milwaukee in order to facilitate a deal, in addition to getting Papelbon’s approval.

Rosenthal also tweets that the Blue Jays expressed interest in Papelbon in recent weeks, although they, too, are on the closer’s no-trade list

1:01am: The Brewers are in serious talks to acquire Jonathan Papelbon from the Phillies, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter). Earlier today, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that Milwaukee was casting a wide net as it looked for pitching upgrades, and GM Doug Melvin said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio that adding bullpen help was his top priority.

It’s unclear at this time whether or not Milwaukee is on Papelbon’s no-trade list, Passan adds, although indications over the summer were that Papelbon would waive his no-trade protection to be moved to a contender. While the Brewers are far from a lock to achieve a postseason berth in 2015, they do appear to be better positioned than the rebuilding Phillies, who have traded away Antonio Bastardo, Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd this offseason as the club looks to the future.

Papelbon, 34, is owed $13MM in 2015 and has a $13MM vesting option that will kick in this season if he reaches 48 games finished. Should Milwaukee ultimately reach a deal to acquire Papelbon, one would think that he’d supplant Jonathan Broxton as the club’s closer, making 48 games finished a highly attainable milestone. Of course, as Passan notes, it is not even clear at this time whether or not the Brewers are one of the 17 clubs on Papelbon’s no-trade list.

Though Papelbon’s velocity and strikeout rate have declined in recent seasons, his bottom-line results have remained largely intact. Papelbon’s heater sat at 95 mph in his final season with the Red Sox, but it dropped to 93.8 mph in 2012, 92 mph in 2013 and 91.3 mph in 2014. Nonetheless, Papelbon was still able to notch an excellent 2.04 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 41.9 percent ground-ball rate in a 2014 campaign that also featured 39 saves — the second-highest single-season total of his career.

The Brewers recently traded Yovani Gallardo and his $13MM salary to the Rangers, although Milwaukee remains on the hook for $4MM of that sum. Still, that salary reduction leaves the Brewers well-equipped to add some payroll, particularly if the Phillies elect to eat some of the remaining money on Papelbon’s contract, which many have assumed they would need to do in order to move him.

As it stands, Broxton figures to be closing games, with righties Jim Henderson and Tyler Thornburg serving as setup options alongside lefty Will Smith. Both Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano have been mentioned as possible bullpen targets for the Phillies, although for the time being, the trade market appears to be the more likely avenue for Doug Melvin to improve his bullpen.

Giants To Re-Sign Ryan Vogelsong
By Steve Adams [January 23, 2015 at 10:09am CST]

The Giants and Ryan Vogelsong have reached an agreement on a one-year deal, pending a physical, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that a reunion looked likely after Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports noted that Vogelsong had “shifted course” away from the Astros and was in serious discussions with San Francisco.

Braves To Sign Jonny Gomes
By Mark Polishuk [January 23, 2015 at 12:27pm CST]

JAN. 23: Brown reports that Gomes’ option can vest at three different amounts, depending on his playing time (Twitter link). The option will vest at $3MM upon reaching 325 plate appearances, $3.5MM if he reaches 425 PAs and $4MM if Gomes reaches 500 PAs.

JAN. 22, 9:03pm: Gomes will earn $4MM in 2015, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter link). The 2016 vesting option is worth $3MM, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets, and it will become a club option if it fails to vest.

7:20pm: The Braves have reached agreement with free agent outfielder Jonny Gomes on a one-year deal with a vesting option for 2016, Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown reports (Twitter links). Gomes is represented by the MVP Sports Group.

MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported on Tuesday that Atlanta was interested in Gomes as a platoon option in left field, likely as a partner for Zoilo Almonte. The right-handed hitting Gomes has an outstanding .861 OPS over 1494 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching, including a .276/.373/.371 slash line in 204 PA against southpaws in 2014. Gomes hit .234/.327/.330 overall last season over 321 with the Red Sox and A’s, going to Oakland along with Jon Lester in the trade deadline blockbuster that also saw Yoenis Cespedes go to Boston.

Gomes is the latest new piece to join a revamped Braves outfield that will see his platoon with Almonte (or another left-handed hitting outfielder) replace Justin Upton in left field and Nick Markakis replace Jason Heyward in right. Gomes, 34, is also widely regarded as a strong clubhouse presence, which could be helpful in mentoring Almonte and the several other young players acquired by the Braves this winter as they’ve looked to semi-rebuild their roster.

The Mariners, Rangers, Cubs and Orioles are some of the teams also known to have shown interest in Gomes this winter. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that the Braves were worried as late as this afternoon that Gomes would end up signing with the Rangers, so Texas may indeed have been the runner-up suitor.

Marlins To Sign Ichiro Suzuki
By Steve Adams [January 23, 2015 at 12:03pm CST]

12:03pm: The two sides are still hammering out the specifics of the performance bonuses that will be built into the contract before the deal becomes official, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

11:26am: Ichiro’s deal is expected to be a one-year pact in the $2MM range, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. It’s also unlikely to include any sort of option, Rosenthal adds (Twitter links).

11:19am: The Marlins have agreed to terms with free agent outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, reports Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (Twitter link). The 41-year-old Ichiro, a client of John Boggs & Associates, should serve as Miami’s fourth outfielder in 2015.

Though his skills have clearly eroded somewhat with age, Ichiro posted a respectable .284/.324/.340 batting line in 385 plate appearances with the Yankees in 2014. He also swiped 15 bases in 18 tries, continuing a career-long trend of pronounced efficiency in that regard. Defensive metrics pegged him as an average right fielder, and he slid over to center field for a brief, 19-inning cameo as well, suggesting that he’s capable of doing so in a pinch should the Marlins require such a move on occasion in 2015.

The Marlins’ primary outfield will consist of Christian Yelich in left field, Marcell Ozuna in center and Giancarlo Stanton in right — an excellent young trio that will limit Ichiro’s playing time and make it highly unlikely that he reaches the 156 hits he needs to reach 3,000 in his Major League career (he also had 1,278 hits in his Japanese career prior to jumping to MLB). However, there’s been no indication from his camp that this will be the likely Hall of Famer’s final season, so he could yet reach the plateau if he remains reasonably productive and secures another big league deal next offseason.

2015 ranking of all 30 farm systems
Cubs, Twins top Keith Law's annual rankings of minor league talent
Originally Published: January 28, 2015
By Keith Law | ESPN Insider

To kick off my look this week at the best prospects in the minor leagues, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in the systems and have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next few days.)

Similar to last year, there are only a handful of systems that combine both a few high-impact or high-ceiling prospects and the depth down to and past the end of their top-10 list. (My top 10 rankings by team will be released Friday.) Many systems ranked in the teens boast a couple very good prospects -- say, one or two guys who project as above-average regulars and another two or three who might be everyday guys -- and then it's bench parts and relievers. Those players are good to have, as you'd much rather fill those spots with minimum-salary players than have to reach out to free agency, but their asset value is much lower than the values of prospects who project as average or better.

One major change: You'll notice this year I have more large-market teams in the top 10, as ownership groups in those cities recognize the value in building better stables of prospects, which has included hiring better scouts and coaches away from other organizations. The draft has always offered a competitive advantage to lower-revenue teams willing to put their money into amateur scouting, in part because the clubs with higher payrolls chose to put their cash into the big league roster. If that's no longer true, it will reduce the opportunity for the Pittsburghs and Kansas Citys of MLB to continue to contend.



1. Chicago Cubs

Take a moment to recover from your surprise ... The past 12 months have seemed more like a coronation for the Cubs than one for the teams that actually played in the World Series. The hype around their system is justified by the talent in it, with the strongest collection of top-shelf hitting prospects I can remember since I started working in baseball. They have someone coming at just about every position other than catcher and first base, and most of them fare well both in traditional evaluation and in analysis of their performance to date.

The Cubs' draft strategy under the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime has been to grab a polished hitter in the first round and load up on arms later. That, along with the trade of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel that netted two more top hitting prospects, has produced a system that's full of hitting prospects but still a bit light on the pitching side. The first wave of bats reached the majors in the middle of 2014, with more coming this year, but there won't be enough at-bats for Javier Baez and Jorge Soler and Arismendy Alcantara and Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber and Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo ... and that's not even everyone who might end up pushing for playing time. The Cubs are in prime position to flip a young hitter for a pitcher or even to swing a bigger deal, especially if they want to try to set themselves up to win the NL Central in 2016. There are young starting pitching prospects here to like, led by 20-year-old Duane Underwood, but they're all a few years away.



2. Minnesota Twins

The Twins return almost their entire top 10 intact but have added first-rounder Nick Gordon and a slew of college relievers who look like they'll move quickly to the high minors, and they continue to find value on the international front.

The flip side of this is the Twins got virtually no help from their farm system in 2014, but I expect that to change quickly this year, with Alex Meyer on the verge of the big leagues and Miguel Sano not far behind.



3. Houston Astros

It is still strong, but it's now a bit weaker after a slew of promotions last year, their inability to come to an agreement with the first overall pick in the draft, Brady Aiken, and the trade of three prospects, two of them in my 2015 top 100, for Evan Gattis. The Astros' strength is still in bats, followed by a collection of hard throwers who might start but, if not, project as impact relievers.



4. New York Mets

They're deep in arms and bats, especially guys who might play in the middle of the diamond or pitch in the top three spots of a major league rotation. They've kept all their prospects while patiently building, but this is probably the year to swap some of their starting pitching prospect depth for a bat.



5. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox lost four top-10 prospects to promotions last year, yet they remain a top-5 system, thanks to big moves forward by Blake Swihart, Manuel Margot and Rafael Devers, the latter of whom will play all of 2015 at age 18, and the midseason trade that netted them lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, now their No. 2-ranked pitching prospect.



6. Atlanta Braves

They were a bottom-5 system when the offseason started, but six trades later, they've built up a stash of prospects that makes up for five years of execrable drafts and very little production from their Latin American efforts. Ten of their top 12 prospects have appeared on at least one of my past three top-100 rankings, including five this year.



7. Pittsburgh Pirates

It's hard to believe how many games the Pirates have won in the majors over the past two years without putting a significant dent in their top-level minor league talent. They promoted only Gerrit Cole and Gregory Polanco and dealt just one major prospect in Dilson Herrera.

They still have several players likely to help the major league club in 2015, and just about every affiliate should have at least one potential star on its Opening Day roster.



8. Colorado Rockies

I called the Rockies "sneaky good" last year and ranked them No. 8 at that time, and I actually like the system a little more this year, despite injury setbacks that affected four of their top six guys.

Strong pro debuts from their top few picks from 2014 also boosted their stock.



9. Washington Nationals

The Nats' system got a big boost last year, when they kept their first-round draft pick and landed a good college arm, Erick Fedde, who fell because he had blown out his elbow. Then they added two top-100 prospects in exchange for Steven Souza this offseason. They're also so set at the major league level that they haven't had to deal much from their minor league affiliates; just two of their top 10 from last year, Souza and Nate Karns, are no longer with the Nats, and both are now property of Tampa Bay, through separate deals.



10. Los Angeles Dodgers

Their front three prospects are the strongest in the game, and their top 10 is still strong, but it thins out very quickly beyond their 10th or 11th guy. In terms of just guys with the potential to be stars, they rival the Cubs and Twins.



11. Texas Rangers

A lost year at the major league level led to a productive trade with Detroit that netted the Rangers a top-100 prospect in Jake Thompson, and they had one of the steals of the 2014 draft when they got right-hander Luis Ortiz with a supplemental pick. There has been some attrition from the large group of high-upside position players they brought into the system in 2011-12, but not as much as you might expect, with that set likely to produce two or three stars in a couple seasons.



12. Chicago White Sox

They've added four players within the top-120 range of prospects in the past 24 months, via the draft and one trade, and they didn't give up any of those premium guys to add Jeff Samardzija this offseason. Although the system still isn't deep in average prospects, it is in the best shape it has been since I started ranking organizations seven years ago.



13. St. Louis Cardinals

You'd have to go down to rookie ball to find a potential star in the system -- they lost one, Oscar Taveras, to tragedy last autumn -- yet the Cardinals can run 15 or more names who project to have significant, major league roles as average regulars or quality extra guys.



14. Arizona Diamondbacks

I might take their top four starting pitching prospects over anyone else's in baseball. The system is rather light on bats, though, and trading two young hitting prospects for a back-end starter this winter didn't help that.



15. Kansas City Royals

Years of strong drafts paid off by bringing the Royals one win from a world championship, and there's actually quite a bit of talent still in the system, as the Royals didn't have to trade much of what they already had. This organization has lost some depth, but the top 10 is still solid, especially in starting pitching.



16. Cleveland Indians

The system got a huge boost from perhaps my favorite 2014 draft class, which featured a good mix of probability and upside and boosted a farm that had seen a number of top-10 prospects struggle the past season.



17. Cincinnati Reds

This could easily be a top-10 system in a year, given how many upside players are in the organization, from relievers working as starters to toolshed, Latin American position players. There is very little 2015 impact, however, and nearly all of their top 10 prospects have some significant risk associated with them.



18. San Diego Padres

New GM AJ Preller has traded away much of the depth in this system but has managed to retain the Padres' top two prospects, Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges, as well as the pitcher they consider their top arm, Matt Wisler. It's been a busy offseason in San Diego.



19. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have been very aggressive in using their prospects to upgrade the major league roster, and they promoted most of the remainder, so what's left in the system is largely high-ceiling, Latin American prospects who are several years away and the products of their 2014 draft, from which both first-rounders have had surgery.



20. New York Yankees

The Yankees' system still has more talent than production, as several key prospects continued to have trouble staying on the field, but a very strong 2013 draft class and a blowout year on the international front have the system trending up again.



21. Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' system was long light on bats and full of arms, but the promotions of Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, as well as a pair of hitter-heavy drafts, have flipped that around. (Paxton is obviously a lock to be in the 2015 rotation, and Walker should push to land there as well.)



22. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles still have a pair of future aces atop the system, but they traded one of their top starting pitching prospects for Andrew Miller and didn't pick until the third round last year, which means they missed out on a chance to add more high-end talent to the system.



23. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' draft record has been among the most disappointing in baseball because their big league club cannot succeed without a steady pipeline of inexpensive players coming out from their minor leagues. They haven't had a pick in the first 10 rounds turn into anything above an up-and-down guy since the 2007 draft, which included David Price and Matt Moore. The various trades of veterans and Wil Myers helped add some talent back to the system, but the bottom line for the new regime in St. Petersburg is they have to get more big leaguers from their top draft picks.



24. Miami Marlins

Their system rarely ranks high because they promote players to big league roles so quickly, but there's a solid group of very young arms in the system that will be on the list for a while, as well as a teenage position player or two with some real upside. There's very little in near-term talent here, however.



25. Philadelphia Phillies

They might have been 28th or 29th had they not traded Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers for a pair of solid pitching prospects, but the system still lacks depth up top, and aside from J.P. Crawford, their best teenage position players are still a long way off. More trades could obviously help push this system up.



26. Oakland Athletics

They've shipped out a lot of talent to try to advance in the playoffs the past two years, including sending two first-round picks to the Cubs in the first Jeff Samardzija trade. The system is especially light on pitchers who project as more than fifth starters, with Dillon Overton, who is just coming back from Tommy John surgery, their best bet to end up a mid-rotation guy.



27. Los Angeles Angels

They were a lock to be 30th before they acquired Andrew Heaney in the Howie Kendrick trade and signed Cuban amateur Roberto Baldoquin, but after those two and first-rounder Sean Newcomb, the system drops off very quickly.



28. Milwaukee Brewers

Years of bad drafts and struggles developing pitching have caught up with the Brewers, who've had just a few draft picks in the first five rounds -- Brett Lawrie, Yovani Gallardo, and Jonathan Lucroy -- pan out since they took Ryan Braun in 2005. Jimmy Nelson might join that group, but it's hard to sustain a low-payroll club without a productive farm system.



29. San Francisco Giants

The bottom two clubs on this list are here in large part because they use or trade what they get. The Giants traded two prospects for Jake Peavy, while five of their eight regular hitters and three of their five starters were homegrown. Drafting low in the first round hasn't helped, and recently they've taken a number of high school arms who have promise but have moved slowly through the system.



30. Detroit Tigers

They've traded five of their top 10 prospects from last year's list (Nos. 3, 4, 5, 8 and 10) and made their top guy from that list, Nick Castellanos, their everyday third baseman. The No. 9 prospect in the system, Endrys Briceno, blew out his elbow, and the No. 2 prospect, Daniel Fields, fought a wrist injury all year. I loved their first-rounder from last year, but I had to build their top 10 almost completely from scratch because of how actively Dave Dombrowski uses what he has in the system.

Well, well, well...looky who is creeping up the ranks. I sense a Mets/Cubs NLCS in the next couple years. Mets sweep, but nice try Chicago.

Carp said:

Well, well, well...looky who is creeping up the ranks. I sense a Mets/Cubs NLCS in the next couple years. Mets sweep, but nice try Chicago.

Click to expand...

We'll see. Both teams are in a great spot. Plenty of cost-controlled talent to be able to absorb some disappointments/busts and make a couple trades to get established big league talent.

Jon Heyman
Baseball Insider

MLB winter winners and losers: All is well in Chicago
January 28, 2015 6:00 pm ET


The evaluations are in after one of the most active winters ever.

Here are 20 winter winners -- and a few losers, too.

Normally, it is preferable to wait until all the top free agents are signed before filling out our winter scorecard. But James Shields, ace pitcher without a home, is simply taking too long.

Whatever happens with Shields, it's been quite a winter, with two big-time aces signing nine-figure deals, two mega hitting stars moving from the West Coast to Boston and other many more impact players changing hands via trade than anyone could have ever imagined.

So here goes, all our offseason winners and losers ...

Winners

1. White Sox. Rarely has a team so successfully and systematically answered so many of its major questions. They needed a righty starter. Check. They needed a closer. Check. They needed a No. 2 hitter, a cleanup hitter and lefty set-up man. Check, check and check. With Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke they scored a grand slam plus. They should compete in the improving, difficult AL Central, thanks to a reasonable outlay of slightly less than what the Cubs spent on Jon Lester. Only tiny quibble: $15 million and three years seem like a lot for Duke.

2. Cubs. Joe Maddon was the perfect guy for the lovable Cubbies, and he's worth every penny of that $25 million. Lester looks pretty reasonable at $155 million (especially after Max Scherzer's deal for $55 million more), and that signing showed how serious the Cubs finally are about trying to end their 106-year losing streak. Dexter Fowler brings speed, Miguel Montero experience and Jason Hammel an under-the-radar rotation piece. Best job in baseball, outside Chicago's South Side.

3. Max Scherzer/Scott Boras. Some thought Boras would be stuck with an under-market deal for Scherzer since it took into January, but despite a similar ledger as Lester save for Lester's eye-popping 0.43 World Series ERA -- they have identical 3.58 ERAs and were both 30 when they signed -- Scherzer wound up getting 35.4 percent more money. And it's not like he has to go to a second-division team, either. If the Nats weren't the World Series favorite going into the winter, they have to be now. While there are deferrals that bring the value down to $191 million according to the union, and no no-trade clause (who needs one when you have $10 million in deferrals, as the Nats pointed out?), this deal beat the projections of everyone -- and even the alleged $200-million asking price. And since he plans to move to Florida to be near the Nats in spring training and out-of-state residents aren't taxed in DC he may even make up the $19 million gap.

4. Padres. Say this for new GM A.J. Preller and his group: they are nothing if not aggressive. Who would have thought they'd add not one but three offensively impactful outfielders? It helped that the old regime left a nice prospect stash, but Preller and Co. established themselves as players and made the team that much more balanced and interesting. They even got $32 million back in the Matt Kemp deal, which is allowing them to continue to look to add. Took good chances with Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson and beefed up the pen with big arms in Shawn Kelly and Brandon Maurer. They kept four of their top prospects (Trea Turner went as the player to be named in the Wil Myers trade, as did Max Fried in the Justin Upton deal). One worry: giving up the lefty Fried and three others for one year of Upton is a bit of a risk.

5. Red Sox. They addressed their offensive woes in a big way by adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez in short order, imported 60 percent of a rotation within 48 hours (Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson) and put themselves in position to possibly do the last-to-first thing for the second time in three years. They also held onto Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, Henry Owens and the rest of their fine prospect stash, putting them in position to deal later for Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto or someone of that stature.

6. Billy Butler/Legacy. Hard to second guess Billy Beane and Co. but a DH with nine home runs doesn't normally get a $30-million, three-year deal.

7. Marlins. They got off to a big start with the record $325-million deal for franchise player Giancarlo Stanton (with his out after $107 million and six years) and kept going, adding speedy Dee Gordon, versatile Martin Prado (a poor man's Ben Zobrist), powerful Michael Morse, talented Mat Latos, ageless Ichiro and (most likely) dependable Dan Haren, who still prefers to pitch on the West Coast. On the cusp. (And if they pull a surprise and add Shields, even a real threat). Only disappointments: not locking up Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich.

8. Blue Jays. They still haven't filled their closing job or that second-base issue they've seemingly had for eons, either. But what they did do was spectacular. They lured back Canadian Russell Martin, winning him from the Cubs, Dodgers, incumbent Pirates and others, to catch, and in one of the surprises of a spectacular winter, added third base star Josh Donaldson to give Toronto one of the best lineup tops in baseball, if not the very best one.

9. Brandon McCarthy/Ryan Ware. He turned a brilliant second half into the Yankees into a windfall with the first-division Dodgers and bosses that love him (new Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi had him in Oakland, and all the Dodgers people have to love McCarthy's sabermetric bent). On talent he's probably worth $12 million a year, even if he was inexplicably atrocious in the NL West with the D-Backs last year. The four years is a coup, though.

10. Jon Lester/Aces. Lester never was looking to break the bank but he did fine and got to go to one of baseball's best stories, if not yet one of its better teams. He isn't $55 million worse than Scherzer on the record, but this is still a decent deal (and the $30-million signing bonus doesn't hurt, either). And Aces proprietors, the Levinson brothers, while they are losing players to other agents, well, they managed to stay ahead of whoever is still investigating them for their link to Biogenesis (and before that Kirk Radomski).

11. Jed Lowrie/CAA. There are questions about his durability and his defense, but he leveraged the lack of viable shortstops into a $23-million three-year deal. What's more, he gets to play for fellow Stanford man A.J. Hinch, the new Houston manager, the Astros are much improved and he also gets to go home to Houston.

12. Twins. They got Ervin Santana for $55 million over four years after missing out last year, and they extended Phil Hughes, their best move from a year ago. Good calls. The Torii Hunter return is a nice story, too. Now for the bad news: Everyone else in the division looks better, except maybe Detroit and Kansas City, which were already at the top.

13. Top relievers. Closer David Robertson managed to get a $46-million, four-year deal despite having a draft choice attached, and non-closer Andrew Miller got $35 million for four years from the Yankees, and both pitchers reportedly had even bigger offers elsewhere.

14. Nick Markakis/TWC. His $44-million, four-year deal seemed about right -- that is until folks saw him at Adam Jones' wedding with a neck brace on. The neck surgery was no surprise to the Braves, who believe it isn't a major worry. Nonetheless, this is the kind of thing that normally hurts one's free agency.

15. Mariners. With all their pitching and prospects, they look like a real threat now. Didn't get the steal the Orioles ($8 million) did on Nelson Cruz, but $57 million for four years seems pretty reasonable.

16. Rangers. They needed rotation depth so Yovani Gallardo, and to a lesser degree Ross Detwiler and Anthony Ranaudo, work. Their real plus should be getting back the record infirmed list. Should contend again.

17. Alex Rios. He's a fine all-around player but that zero home run total in the second half year couldn't have been a free-agency plus. Still, he managed to get $11M from the AL champion Royals.

18. Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond, Nats. Both players look wise to have rebuffed extension tries by their teams, especially Zimmermann, who was reported to have been offered something in the $85-million range and saw Scherzer get $210 million from his own team. Desmond also looks prescient to have taken an offer said to have been for close to $100 million, especially with the paucity of top-flight shortstops.

19. Diamondbacks. Their rotation could be all-time bad, especially until Patrick Corbin comes back and Josh Collmenter or Jeremy Hellickson, and it isn't quite clear what they are thinking at catcher. But they had the right idea, loading up for the future, ridding themselves of Montero's contract and taking a chance on Tomas. So they get a gold star for the plan, anyway.

20. Cuban hitters. Yasmany Toimas reeled in a $68.5-million, six-year deal with the Diamondbacks. Big time power plays, as Cuban hitters are going to keep raking it in until proven otherwise.

Losers

1. Rays. Not only did they lose beloved manager Maddon, resourceful GM Andrew Friedman, ultra versatile infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist and young power-hitting Myers, they continued to make no progress in their efforts to get out of the The Trop, one of the two worst baseball stadiums still extant. What's more, at a St. Petersburg city hearing local politicos ripped some Rays decision makers, suggesting perceived haughtiness didn't help their cause while rejecting the team's request just to look around elsewhere in Tampa/St. Pete. The other sports franchises in Tampa are locally owned. Maybe it's time for the Rays to follow suit.

2. A's. Beane is one of the smartest people in baseball, and that is well established, and he's had winters before that looked like he was rebuilding, and that didn't prevent the A's from contending. And nobody should be shocked if Oakland makes it five 90-plus seasons in seven. On the surface, the losses of Donaldson, Samardzija, Lester, Lowrie and Hammel would seem to weaken the roster considerably. But, with their history of magic, who can be sure?

3. Orioles. They lost Cruz and Markakis, didn't quite sign Nori Aoki, Colby Rasmus, Ichiro or any of the obvious replacement possibilities, and still have excellent GM Dan Duquette, who wanted to go to the rival Jays as team president but couldn't when Peter Angelos reportedly asked for their unreasonably high first-round duo of pitcher Jeff Hoffman and catcher Max Pentecost. It's a plus they still have the Executive of the Year Duquette, of course, but it may not be so comfortable around the Orioles offices since it's well-known he was ready to go to Toronto. Big plus: signing J.J. Hardy weeks before free agency to a reasonable three-year, $40-million deal.

4. Phillies. They were rejected by A.J. Burnett, who bolted Philly to return to the cross-state Pirates for much less money (about a third less, $8.5 million compared to $12.75 million), and are seemingly just getting started in their rebuilding task. GM Ruben Amaro suggested recently he expects to keep Cole Hamels, and let's hope that changes, as Philly's rebuild depends on the type of haul they can get for one of baseball's best pitchers. They are also for the moment stuck with Jonathan Papelbon and Ryan Howard.

5. Troy Tulowitzki. He loves Denver, but he has to be frustrated by the team's continuing difficulty to win in thin air. It's nice that he has such a great relationship with the Rockies owner Dick Monfort but it appears he will have to stay, as the right match or mindset never materialized. If he wants to be traded, he is going to have to come out and say so. No doubt, it's a tough spot for a franchise icon. But so is playing for an also-ran year after year.

6. Jonathan Papelbon. One of the better relievers in recent memory continues to be beaten up publicly (and behind the scenes) as someone who's unwanted despite great stats. Some of it has to do with velocity that plummeted to 91 mph from 95 last year but some of it is that quirky personality of his. The $50-million deal (plus vesting option) was not one of Philly's better ideas.

7. Mets. Michael Cuddyer was a nice add but the Mets continue to be ultra-conservative on the trading front, especially compared with some of the teams with new GMs. Wilmer Flores is going to be a nice utility player but it's questionable whether he's a starting shortstop. If the Mets are as good as they think they are, they should have found a way to trade for Ian Desmond, Tulowitzki or someone else of that ilk.

8. Brewers. They did get good prospect value back for Gallardo, but the rotation looks thin now, and heavily dependent on kids Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson. And now they are flirting with Jonathan Papelbon, which probably isn't a great idea.

9. Colby Rasmus. Here's a guy who has speed and defense and can play center field and had to settle for $8 million at age 28. Ability to fit into a clubhouse remains a question, but Houston, where his old friend Jeff Luhnow is GM, may be the right spot for him.

Jury's Out

1. Tigers. They did seem to have interest in bringing back Scherzer, and it has to be a disappointment to owner Mike Ilitch, who badly seeks his first championship. David Price says he's open to listen, and while things got better for him in Detroit by the end, he's known to have had an uneasy transition from Tampa. Yoenis Cespedes lengthens the dangerous lineup with Torii Hunter gone and Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon provide depth to a weakened rotation that also lost Porcello.

2. Giants. This isn't their year, anyway (remember they win every other year) but the loss of Sandoval definitely stings. They brought back Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong, imported Casey McGehee to replace Sandoval and added Nori Aoki late on a very reasonable $4.7-million, one-year deal, so they recovered quite nicely.

3. Yankees. The Yankees did what they could with what little they spent, but they left themselves without a surefire ace (unless Masahiro Tanaka is fully healthy) and but there are serious questions at shortstop and second base, where there's very good defense at both spots but plenty of youth and offensive concern.

4. Dodgers. Their defense and clubhouse should be much improved, and those are no small things. Howie Kendrick and Rollins should go a ways toward making up for the losses of Kemp, Ramirez and Gordon. These guys are smart, no question about that, but I've got to wonder: Is McCarthy worth $38 million more than Haren?

5. Braves. There's no question they stepped out of the stalking role in the NL East and look like an also-ran for 2015, and the $44 million on Markakis will only be well spent if he makes a speedy recovery. But Shelby Miller was a nice return for Jason Heyward and Fried-plus is fine work for Upton. I get it more than most, it seems.

TBD

1. James Shields. The rumor of a $110-million, five-year offer most likely was nothing more than that at this point. Perhaps agent Page Odle still pulls a nine-figure rabbit out of his hat, but more likely now is a deal north of Santana's $55 million but maybe not as far north as we figured. One issue he could be running into could be the huge free-agent pitching class for next year, which includes Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, Samardzija and many other good ones. Shields is a world-class innings eater, but he ran out of steam in the postseason, and perhaps that hurt him.

Carp said:

Winners

2. Cubs. Joe Maddon was the perfect guy for the lovable Cubbies, and he's worth every penny of that $25 million. Lester looks pretty reasonable at $155 million (especially after Max Scherzer's deal for $55 million more), and that signing showed how serious the Cubs finally are about trying to end their 106-year losing streak. Dexter Fowler brings speed, Miguel Montero experience and Jason Hammel an under-the-radar rotation piece. Best job in baseball, outside Chicago's South Side.

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Carp said:

TBD

1. James Shields. The rumor of a $110-million, five-year offer most likely was nothing more than that at this point. Perhaps agent Page Odle still pulls a nine-figure rabbit out of his hat, but more likely now is a deal north of Santana's $55 million but maybe not as far north as we figured. One issue he could be running into could be the huge free-agent pitching class for next year, which includes Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, Samardzija and many other good ones. Shields is a world-class innings eater, but he ran out of steam in the postseason, and perhaps that hurt him.

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At this point I am in favor of the Cubs taking a hard look at Shields. If he can in fact be signed for not a whole lot more than the E. Santana deal I think they should pursue him, hoping Maddon can help lure him to the Cubs if there are comparable deals on the table. I don't see it happening as there are plenty of other teams that could use him, but I'd get serious about it now if I were the Cubs. I don't think it would impede them from attempting to sign one of the big free agents next season or making a trade for Hamels or Zimmerman.

@pillows.


That guy cracks me up.

Furious masturbation.

Carp said:

Furious masturbation.

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Be careful you don't get blisters.

That rotation seriously has the potential for greatness. I don't know why the Mets are not getting more buzz as a team that could kind of come out of nowhere and make the playoffs this year. The Cubs are getting a lot of it but I think it is premature in their case. Still need another top of the rotation starting pitcher and also have so many young bats it is a bit unreasonable to think they'll be consistent enough in 2015.

The Mets however, have some arms that are already proven at the MLB level and a couple more on the way that could be just as good as the proven guys. I know the team has some holes and could use a couple more impact bats. How is the bullpen? It's probably a little premature to think they'll sneak into the playoffs in 2015 but it isn't out of the question if things break the right way for them (how Harvey comes back is going to be huge). That is why I don't understand why they haven't been a little more aggressive in trying to upgrade the offense. I know they're "set" at several positions but it really seems like they are sitting on their hands when they should be employing the same "go for it" strategy that the Cubs are.

E_D_Guapo said:

Be careful you don't get blisters.

That rotation seriously has the potential for greatness. I don't know why the Mets are not getting more buzz as the team that could kind of come out of nowhere and make the playoffs this year. The Cubs are getting a lot of it but I think it is premature in their case. Still need another top of the rotation starting pitcher and also have so many young bats it is a bit unreasonable to think they'll be consistent enough in 2015.

The Mets however, have some arms that are already proven at the MLB level and a couple more on the way that could be just as good as the proven guys. I know the team has some holes and could use a couple more impact bats. How is the bullpen? It's probably a little premature to think they'll sneak into the playoffs in 2015 too but it isn't out of the question if things break the right way for them (how Harvey comes back is going to be huge). That is why I don't understand why they haven't been a little more aggressive in trying to upgrade the offense. I know they're "set" at several positions but it really seems like they are sitting on their hands when they should be employing the same "go for it" strategy that the Cubs are.

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I agree, we have not done enough to help the offense. Having Cuddyer and Granderson limits where we could have possibly upgraded. The only spot where we could have received a boost was at SS...and honestly there was not a SS available that I think could outperform Flores offensively. Really the success offensively will hinge on Lagaraes, D'Arnaud, and Duda continuing to grow, Wright to stay healthy, and Cuddyer/Granderson to have decent seasons.

As an aside...I am particularly excited to see what we do with Matz. I think he is an under the radar, kind of gets lost behind the bigger names, but he is going to be a stud.

Carp said:

I agree, we have not done enough to help the offense. Having Cuddyer and Granderson limits where we could have possibly upgraded. The only spot where we could have received a boost was at SS...and honestly there was not a SS available that I think could outperform Flores offensively. Really the success offensively will hinge on Lagaraes, D'Arnaud, and Duda continuing to grow, Wright to stay healthy, and Cuddyer/Granderson to have decent seasons.

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Yeah, I'm sure they could have made some moves to upgrade, even if it meant getting rid of a guy like Granderson and eating some salary in the process. I agree that trading for a SS didn't make much sense for them this offseason unless they decided to make a move for Ian Desmond or Tulo (who apparently isn't technically on the block right now…so they say). Might as well stay put at SS for now. No need to force things at this point. They do have some nice trade chips though when they decide to get serious about contending.

Carp said:

As an aside...I am particularly excited to see what we do with Matz. I think he is an under the radar, kind of gets lost behind the bigger names, but he is going to be a stud.

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I know about Matz. Everything I have read about him has been real positive. Good control and pretty nice velocity for a lefty. They're going to have to trade a starter or two eventually. Whether it is a vet like Gee or Niese or a prospect like Matz remains to be seen. They don't seem to be in a hurry to move one and they should be very reluctant to move more than one anyway. Injuries strike, some guys don't pan out, etc. They have enough arms to deal with that and still potentially have a hell of a rotation.

E_D_Guapo said:

I know about Matz. Everything I have read about him has been real positive. Good control and pretty nice velocity for a lefty. They're going to have to trade a starter or two eventually. Whether it is a vet like Gee or Niese or a prospect like Matz remains to be seen. They don't seem to be in a hurry to move one and they should be very reluctant to move more than one anyway. Injuries strike, some guys don't pan out, etc. They have enough arms to deal with that and still potentially have a hell of a rotation.

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Part of the problem is that Shields has not been signed yet...once he gets signed I think you will see renewed interest in those two. I think Det would be a good spot with either, but they seem to think Shane Green is a good fit for them.

James Shields Rumors: Wednesday
By Jeff Todd [February 4, 2015 at 10:28pm CST]

We learned last night that the market for James Shields was taking shape, with multiple offers on the table and an expectation that the righty would be signed by the end of the week. Today figures to deliver plenty more reporting on the best remaining free agent, and we’ll keep tabs on it here.

The Cubs have entered the fray and are “kicking the tires” on Shields, reports David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com. Kaplan, too, hears that Shields is expected to choose a team by the end of the week, and the Cubs are among those he is considering. Kaplan tweets that the Cubs have been waiting to see where the Shields market ended up before getting too involved. He adds that Shields has interest in Chicago, with his relationship with manager Joe Maddon being a factor.
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As I've said before I'm all for it if he ends up signing for a little more than Ervin Santana got. I have a feeling that some team is going to up the ante a bit here towards the end of this process in order to land him. I'll be a bit surprised if it ends up being the Cubs who ink him but for the right deal I think Shields would be a great addition.

Odd that he is still available. The prolonged Lester and Scherzer market run certainly did not help. Also, I think his less than stellar postseason lowered his value. Cubs may get a good deal on him.

I sure wished the Rangers could get in on Shields. I'm happy with Darvish (when he stays healthy), Holland, and Gallardo. Just scared to have to rely on Detweiler and Lewis. Just don't have the money for him even at a reduced cost.