Why the Cowboys are overrated

Cotton

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Why the Cowboys are overrated
It's easy to show defense, and big wins, simply appear far better than they are
Updated: October 22, 2014, 10:07 AM ET
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders

Orlando Scandrick and the Cowboys have given up 6.90 yards per play on third or fourth downs.

The Dallas Cowboys have won six straight games and now have the NFL's best record at 6-1. They made their first big statement a month ago by routing New Orleans in prime time. Last week, they went into Seattle and became only the second road team in the last two years to win at Qwest Field. This week, they easily took out the New York Giants in their first NFC East matchup of the year. DeMarco Murray broke an NFL record with his seventh straight 100-yard game to start the season and Tony Romo leads the NFL in completion rate (69.2 percent) and has 97.5 QBR on third downs.

It finally seems like the glory days have returned for America's Team after three straight years of 8-8. The ESPN Power Rankings currently have Dallas as the No. 2 team in the league, trailing only the Denver Broncos.

However, a look at their performance over the entire season to date suggests that the Cowboys aren't quite that good.

__________________________________

I let my Insider account lapse... can someone with an account post the whole article?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11743301/why-dallas-cowboys-overrated-nfl?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_Schatz_CowboysOverrated
 

Texas Ace

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I don't have to real the article to know what he's going to say, and it's something that all of us already know - this defense has holes that can and most likely will get exposed as we play the teams with elite passing attacks, but I don't think that means we're overrated.

We're getting turnovers and we're keeping teams off the field with the best offense this team has had in the Romo era, and there is nothing fluky about that.

What we have to hope for when we meet the Eagles, Colts, and maybe even the Packers in the playoffs should we get that far, is that the defense puts up enough resistance to keep those offenses from getting into a rhythm. I'm scared that the Packers could score very frequently in the way that Denver did against us last year.
 

Jwooten15

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I think this year truly shows that while having tons of talent does matter, sometimes great coaching and great schemes can make up for players lack of greatness when it comes to raw ability.

Against Seattle and New Orleans, or two toughest opponents thus far, it literally looked our defense knew what the offense was going to run before the ball was even snapped. They were so mentally prepared and played with such cohesion that nothing else mattered.

Sure, we don't have any big names on defense; and sure, they probably can/will be exposed at some point. But I would rather have this all-out-effort on every play from everybody rather than relying on one or two "great players" to continually make the big plays.

Barring injury, and as consistently as our offense is playing, I really think that if the defense can continue to give up something in the low-20's ppg, this team can go far.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I don't have to real the article to know what he's going to say, and it's something that all of us already know - this defense has holes that can and most likely will get exposed as we play the teams with elite passing attacks, but I don't think that means we're overrated.

We're getting turnovers and we're keeping teams off the field with the best offense this team has had in the Romo era, and there is nothing fluky about that.

What we have to hope for when we meet the Eagles, Colts, and maybe even the Packers in the playoffs should we get that far, is that the defense puts up enough resistance to keep those offenses from getting into a rhythm. I'm scared that the Packers could score very frequently in the way that Denver did against us last year.
If you think that's the type of analysis that Football Outsiders do then you haven't read much of their stuff. They basically take statistical analysis and make outlandish claims based on it.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Why the Cowboys are overrated
It's easy to show defense, and big wins, simply appear far better than they are
Updated: October 22, 2014, 10:07 AM ET
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders

Orlando Scandrick and the Cowboys have given up 6.90 yards per play on third or fourth downs.

The Dallas Cowboys have won six straight games and now have the NFL's best record at 6-1. They made their first big statement a month ago by routing New Orleans in prime time. Last week, they went into Seattle and became only the second road team in the last two years to win at Qwest Field. This week, they easily took out the New York Giants in their first NFC East matchup of the year. DeMarco Murray broke an NFL record with his seventh straight 100-yard game to start the season and Tony Romo leads the NFL in completion rate (69.2 percent) and has 97.5 QBR on third downs.

It finally seems like the glory days have returned for America's Team after three straight years of 8-8. The ESPN Power Rankings currently have Dallas as the No. 2 team in the league, trailing only the Denver Broncos.

However, a look at their performance over the entire season to date suggests that the Cowboys aren't quite that good. Dallas is very good, but not great. According to the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, the Cowboys aren't even one of the top five teams in the NFL so far, trailing Denver, Baltimore, Green Bay, and Indianapolis. They even trail Seattle, which has played the toughest schedule in the NFL this year, although obviously the Cowboys deserve credit for giving the Seahawks their worst loss of the season.

(DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, is explained further here. You can find the numbers through Week 7 here.) Let's get this out of the way first: Murray is not overrated. Dez Bryant is not overrated. The Cowboys' offensive line is not overrated. And Romo, longtime punching bag of the football commentariat, is definitely not overrated. DVOA ranks the Cowboys' offense third, trailing only Denver and Green Bay.

Nonetheless, there are three main units on a football team, and the other two Cowboys units really haven't been very good. The defense has certainly been better than last year, and better than everyone expected before the season, but that doesn't mean it's been good. And special teams, except for kicker Dan Bailey, have been decidedly below average.

On a per-play basis, that Cowboys defense that looks so much improved has actually been almost as bad as it was a year ago. Dallas is allowing the same average of 6.1 yards per play, with roughly the same frequency of turnovers. The biggest difference for the defense is actually the offense, which is keeping the defense off the field with those extended, run-heavy drives. Only two defenses have been on the field for a shorter time per game. Less time on the field means less yardage and scoring allowed.

How Dallas' defense measures up

Category 2013 2014
Yds per play 6.1 6.1
Net Yds per pass 7.0 6.8
Pass DVOA rank 27 11
Yds per carry 4.7 4.9
Run DVOA rank 28 26
TO per game 1.75 1.71
Opp TOP rank 24 3

The Cowboys defense is also better this year because of the distribution of the yardage they've given up. The Cowboys have been better than last year on both first and second down, which means they can give up a little bit more yardage on third down and not be hurt by it. The Cowboys have given up 6.90 yards per play on third or fourth downs in 2014, compared to 6.36 yards per play in 2013. However, they've allowed the same 44 percent conversion rate that they did a year ago.

As for special teams, Bailey has been the most valuable kicker in the league on field goals this year, going 14-of-15 with his only miss coming from 53 yards. He's also been above average on kickoffs. However, the Cowboys rank 18th in our ratings for kick returns, 29th for punts, and 30th for punt returns. Though Dwayne Harris has been good in the past, he has muffed or fumbled four different punts this year, and he doesn't have a kickoff return over 30 yards.

The Cowboys look better than they really have been in part because we are judging them based on how good we thought their opponents were when the Cowboys played them, not based on how good those teams really are this year. For instance:

- When the Cowboys dismantled Tennessee in Week 2, we all thought that was a big deal because the Titans had played so well in Week 1 -- a game that now looks like a complete fluke.

- San Francisco and Seattle are clearly not the juggernauts they were a year ago.

- And as for scoring 38 points on this year's New Orleans Saints ... gee, get in line.

Furthermore, our ratings have the Cowboys lower than conventional wisdom because we are measuring all seven games this season, not just the last six. The Cowboys certainly no longer look like the team that lost 28-17 to San Francisco on the first Sunday of the season. If we measure just the six games in their winning streak, the Cowboys' DVOA goes from 14 percent better than average to 26 percent better than average.

But if you are going to only consider the Cowboys' record since Week 2, then you have to extend the same privilege to the rest of the league. And it just so happens that a number of this season's top teams have overcome bad games in Week 1. Baltimore lost in Week 1. So did Green Bay, Indianapolis, San Diego, and New England. So if we remove Week 1 from consideration, not only does Dallas look better, but all those teams look better as well. If we only look at DVOA for Week 2 onwards, the Cowboys still trail Denver, Baltimore, and Green Bay. Their defense is still just 14th, their special teams 21st.

None of this is to say that the Cowboys are about to collapse, of course. Being the fifth or seventh best team in the NFL is still pretty good, and the Cowboys have an average remaining schedule. Our playoff odds simulation currently gives them a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs, and a 38 percent chance of getting a first-round bye. However, Jerry Jones shouldn't start measuring his finger for a fourth Super Bowl ring quite yet. What's the difference between Dallas and a truly great team? Well, Dallas through Week 7 is tied as the sixth best team of 2014. Denver through Week 7 is the sixth best team of the entire last 25 years. Not quite the same thing.
 
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Cotton

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Props, C-Rock.
 

Cowboysrock55

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This is why I don't respect anything Outsiders has to say:

They even trail Seattle, which has played the toughest schedule in the NFL this year

Yeah OK, I'll buy into your bullshit DVOA statistics now.
 

Jwooten15

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Too damn much equational analysis and number crunching. Bottom line is that there are two or three requirements that a defense must achieve to be great, and none of them include something like "Run DVOA rank". Throw all these stupid numbers out the window. All this is, is a bunch of geeks that are trying to formulate and statisicize football because they have no life.
 

Jwooten15

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Look at the Ravens two years ago. Very middle-of-the-pack team throughout the regular season, barely made it to the playoffs.

Whether it be they just caught fire by luck or they wanted it that much worse so they could send Ray Lewis out in style, they won the damn championship.

And I guarantee you that none of these idiots ever formulated that scenario up in their calculators.
 

Texas Ace

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Sure, we don't have any big names on defense; and sure, they probably can/will be exposed at some point. But I would rather have this all-out-effort on every play from everybody rather than relying on one or two "great players" to continually make the big plays.
Agreed.

I love the attitude of these new guys. We have far less talent on defense than we did in previous years, but what's funny is, I don't have that sense of impending doom when they take the field to close out a game like I did with the older teams.

These guys may not be all-world, but they are tough-minded and aggressive, and that has made a huge difference in our ability to close out games.

I just wish we had a pass rusher.
 

ravidubey

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I look at Week 1 for the Cowboys as a week where Tony Romo wasn't Tony Romo. As most of us suspected and has been proven these last six games he was injured and out of practice week 1 and even a bit in week 2.

It's a big, big difference between San Diego's week 1, where they were actually stronger with a healthy Ryan Mathews on top of everyone else they have now.

Here's why the Bronco, Packers, and any other pass-happy team is overrated. In a hostile environment, they each lost to a Seattle team that Dallas completely dismantled.

What's Denver's excuse for losing in Seattle? Where's Peyton Manning's gaudy 4 TD game there? With a team around him, Tony Romo is as environment-proof as Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger were with their best teams. The Giants and Steelers defenses carried them forward, and Eli and Big Ben made the plays they had to to win. Dallas' running game, OL, and defense are carrying them forward, and without that pressure on him Romo is plain killing cats.

Denver and Green Bay live and die on their QB's arms. Dallas makes no pretext about what they rely on, they can beat you with anything. But balk the Packers or Broncos QBs just enough and you beat their teams, period.

QB's @ Seattle:

Tony Romo: 21/32 65.6 250 7.8 2 0 110.2
Peyton Manning: 31/49 63.3 303 6.2 2 1 85.7
Aaron Rodgers: 23/33 69.7 189 5.7 1 1 81.5

QB's vs. Seattle:

Austin Davis: 18/21 85.7 152 7.2 2 0 128.6
Phillip Rivers: 28/37 75.7 284 7.7 3 0 124.2
Kirk Cousins: 21/36 58.3 283 7.9 2 0 102.0
 

Donpingon

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Agreed.

I love the attitude of these new guys. We have far less talent on defense than we did in previous years, but what's funny is, I don't have that sense of impending doom when they take the field to close out a game like I did with the older teams.

These guys may not be all-world, but they are tough-minded and aggressive, and that has made a huge difference in our ability to close out games.

I just wish we had a pass rusher.
For years we've been pretty clear on this board that problem with this team has been mental. Looks like we've shed the right people on defense and acquired a new attitude. We'll see if the O is able to avoid a meltdown when the games really count later on.
 

UncleMilti

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Its a shame the DL is not up to par with the OL that Dallas has cranking right now.

Its not to say the D is terrible....its not. But man...think what this team would be like with a couple true studs along that DL.

6-1 is great and I feel good about the season, but with teams like Philly, GB, and possibly SF or Seattle waiting in the playoffs I don't like the D's chances if we are on the road.
 

Genghis Khan

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For years we've been pretty clear on this board that problem with this team has been mental. Looks like we've shed the right people on defense and acquired a new attitude. We'll see if the O is able to avoid a meltdown when the games really count later on.


The problem was coaching as much as anything. There's no reason in the world why we couldn't have done this last year.
 

Genghis Khan

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Too damn much equational analysis and number crunching. Bottom line is that there are two or three requirements that a defense must achieve to be great, and none of them include something like "Run DVOA rank". Throw all these stupid numbers out the window. All this is, is a bunch of geeks that are trying to formulate and statisicize football because they have no life.
True.

Sure the defense isn't great, and they are being protected to an extent.

But it's one thing to point that out, but they never explain in that article why they think the defense can't continue to be protected moving forward.

maybe this isn't a Superbowl team, but I don't think it's fair to say they are over rated right now. every team is flawed. there is nothing to suggest that the formula they are using to win cannot continue to work.
 

BipolarFuk

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Its a shame the DL is not up to par with the OL that Dallas has cranking right now.

Its not to say the D is terrible....its not. But man...think what this team would be like with a couple true studs along that DL.

6-1 is great and I feel good about the season, but with teams like Philly, GB, and possibly SF or Seattle waiting in the playoffs I don't like the D's chances if we are on the road.
One stud will be here in two weeks.

If he's up to 260 that is.
 

Cowboysrock55

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These are the same guys who ranked Bailey as a middle tier kicker because of his kickoffs. The biggest problem with their statistics is that they weight categories inappropriately.

I also love how they knock the schedule we have had by saying Seattle isn't a juggernaut but then rank Seattle ahead of us in their rankings? I don't mind statistical analysis but these guys aren't very good at it. There is stuff that is way too situational in football to just blanket give statistical analysis.
 

Texas Ace

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Yea, but we couldn't pay him that money.

And I know I'll catch shit for it, especially from my good pal [MENTION=14]NoDak[/MENTION], but I'm kinda glad he's not here.

The new toughness and mentality this team has is a result of so many new faces and guys with no prior history here, IMO. Ware was an amazing talent and probably the best pass rusher in team history, but he was a softie with no leadership ability at all. If he were here, Rolando McClain may not have stepped into the leadership role the way he has and guys may not have gravitated towards him if Ware were here simply out of respect. He'd be looked at as the elder statesman, and rightfully so, and McClain's impact in the locker room would not have been the same.

On both sides of the ball, there are very few holdovers from an era that might be the most humiliating in team history, and I can't say I was sad to see any of our older players leave, no matter how talented they may have been.
 
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UncleMilti

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Yea, but we couldn't pay him that money.

And I know I'll catch shit for it, especially from my good pal @NoDak, but I'm kinda glad he's not here.

The new toughness and mentality this team has is a result of so many new faces and guys with no prior history here, IMO. Ware was an amazing talent and probably the best pass rusher in team history, but he was a softie with no leadership ability at all. If he were here, Rolando McClain may not have stepped into the leadership role the way he has and guys may not have gravitated towards him if Ware were here simply out of respect. He'd be looked at as the elder statesman, and rightfully so, and McClain's impact in the locker room would not have been the same.

On both sides of the ball, there are very few holdovers from an era that might be the most humiliating in team history, and I can't say I was sad to see any of our older players leave, no matter how talented they may have been.
I agree with this...the team needed some new blood and a different attitude.

I still believe there will always be some dysfunction on any Jerry Jones team- its just inevitable.

But I like what I see so far.
 
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