Sturm's Draft Profiles

boozeman

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[h=1]Sturm’s Offseason Digest No. 1: What I’m thinking if I have the Cowboys’ pick at No. 27[/h]

[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]

Published: January 19, 2015 8:24 am












Given that this is my first offseason back with the Dallas Morning News, we (the DMN bosses and myself) may have to figure out exactly how we want this to print in the offseason. But, the object of the next 4 months will be to walk you through the Dallas Cowboys offseason – along with many of their foes – from a NFL Draft and NFL Free Agency standpoint.

This includes examining players carefully by using their game tape to give you a fresh set of eyes perspective on each guy and how they may fit with the Cowboys (or if they fit with them at all). The plan is to try to get at least a thumb nail sketch of any Top 100 prospect in the draft, and dig a little deeper on the Top 50 guys. Meanwhile, in this spot – in the Offseason Digest (Or S.O.D), we will also try to answer your queries about anything Cowboys-related and of course, handle the day to day news, salary cap situations, and free agency issues that will abound all through the year. Usually, by the end of May, things quiet down until training camp, but we will play this by ear. If all goes well, you can expect one of these (length will vary) 3-5 times per week.

So, here we go with today’s 3 distinctly different topics:

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CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND RECAP

Well, if misery loves company, Green Bay’s exit from the playoffs will make Dallas fans feel much better about what the last week has dealt them. Look at the symmetry of it all. In the Wildcard round, Detroit feels they outplayed the Cowboys and that Dallas required a series of events to all go in the Cowboys’ favor or the Lions would have advanced, right? Well, Dallas thought that was ridiculous and advanced.

Then in the Divisional Round, Dallas feels they outplayed the Packers and that Green Bay required a series of events to all go in the Packers’ favor or the Cowboys would have advanced, right? Well, Green Bay thought that was ridiculous and advanced.

Now, the day after the NFC Championship Game, it appears that Green Bay feels they outplayed the Seahawks and that Seattle required a series of events to all go in the Seahawks’ favor or the Packers would be in Super Bowl 49. Well, guess what, Seattle thinks that it is a 60-minute game and has labeled those claims as ridiculous and will march on to the Super Bowl.

Man, Detroit will have a score to settle with Dallas, while Dallas can’t wait to get back at Green Bay, and now, the Packers look forward to a rematch with Seattle. No wonder the NFL TV ratings are so healthy.

In the history of the NFL Playoffs, a team that won the turnover margin by a +3 or more in one of these games is a pretty solid 157-11. That 94% win rate for that trend matches up nicely with the win probability of a team – like Green Bay yesterday that was up 19-7, had the ball after a Morgan Burnett interception at midfield after he had given himself up rather than attempt a Super Bowl-sealing return. One can only imagine he thought that A) the Super Bowl was already sealed and B) visions of DeMarcus Lawrence fumbling a return to give the opponent new life were dancing in his head.

The Seahawks pulled off a Fake Field Goal for a Touchdown, an onside kick recovery, and a 2-point conversion that might be the most ridiculous single play in a playoff game since the David Tyree catch in Super Bowl 42. Russell Wilson, who is quickly getting a reputation of a guy who just will not lose, was sitting a QB rating of 0.0 at the half and still managed to win with a beautiful throw to Jermaine Kearse in Overtime. It was the 2nd playoff game (Edit 11:22am: Championship Game or later) to end on a Touchdown in NFL History, joining the 1958 NFL Championship Game Classic between the Colts and the Giants (Alan Ameche!).

Green Bay lost a game that they could not have asked to go more in their favor for about 55 minutes. There will be books written about how they lost that game and it will be referenced for decades. A historic collapse of epic proportions that certainly will help define perceptions about Mike McCarthy and his squad.
So with that and an unremarkable AFC Championship Game where the Patriots destroyed the Colts, we are now at Super Bowl 49 with the Seahawks and Patriots, or as some will no doubt point out, the Pete Carroll Bowl. Carroll, of course, is the last man to coach the New England Patriots before Bill Belichick.

Now, they meet on the biggest stage with 2 teams claiming this era to be theirs.

Here is a look at the playoff success rate of the home teams and the #1 seeds since the NFL adopted this Playoff format in 1990. The 2 columns on the right are the match-ups in the AFC and NFC Championship Games by Seed:

YearHome RecordAFC Champ SeedsNFC Champ Seeds
19908-21* vs 21 vs 2**
19918-21* vs 21** vs 2
19925-52 vs 4*1 vs 2**
19938-21* vs 31** vs 2
19948-21 vs 2*1** vs 2
19957-32* vs 51** vs 3
19968-22* vs 51** vs 2
19976-42 vs 4**1 vs 2*
19988-21** vs 21 vs 2*
19997-31 vs 4*1** vs 2
20008-22 vs 4**1* vs 2
20017-31 vs 2**1* vs 3
20028-21* vs 21 vs 2**
20036-41** vs 31 vs 3*
20046-41 vs 2**1* vs 2
20054-62 vs 6**1* vs 5
20068-23** vs 41* vs 2
20075-51* vs 32 vs 5**
20085-52** vs 64* vs 6
20097-31* vs 51** vs 2
20104-62* vs 62 vs 6**
20118-21* vs 22 vs 4**
20126-42 vs 4**1 vs 2*
20136-41* vs 21** vs 5
20148-21* vs 31* vs 2
(** = Super Bowl Champion, * = Super Bowl Loser)

As you can see, the #1 seed is massive. That is why Green Bay (and to a lesser extent Dallas) will always remember December 14th, the day Green Bay lost to Buffalo as the day the seeding turned upside down.

If Green Bay had won that game, they would have been the #1 seed in the NFC at 13-3. Dallas would then have been #2 by virtue of their head-to-head tie breaker at 12-4 with Seattle. So, Seattle plays Detroit on Wild Card Weekend, while Dallas had a bye. Then, Dallas would have hosted Seattle last week (perhaps), and the NFC Championship Game could have likely been Dallas at Green Bay. Then that Dez Bryant play might have been for the Super Bowl and surely, the Dallas indigestion would have been even worse.

All thanks to Buffalo, the road went through Seattle, and despite the Seahawks playing their worst game, they still advanced.

The other thing that pops in your head is that these teams are not that far apart. Detroit is not much worse than Dallas. Dallas is no worse than Green Bay. Green Bay may not be worse than Seattle. The margins are close and you might need a call or a home field advantage to split the two teams up. In other words, you need to be good to get into the playoffs, but then it is often the flip of a coin. As Al Pacino famously said, “The inches are all around us, and when you add up all those inches, that is what makes the difference between winning and losing.” Mere inches.

You cannot beat the NFL Playoffs.

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DRAFT PROFILE:
(Each issue of S.O.D., we shall tackle another draft prospect. No, I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska – 6’6, 240 – Age 22
One of the first rules of draft evaluations is to avoid mock drafts and rankings as to not just go through an exercise of confirmation bias. We want to assume nothing about these guys and just let our eyes be our guide. That said, anyone who watches college football knows that Gregory has been at the top of the lists all year long. He is a very impressive specimen. I watched the USC, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Miami games.

What I liked: He is clearly a sight to behold with very long arms and a slender build that makes you think Aldon Smith as a possibility on the edge just ruining plays. He can be a very active pass rush guy and when he sees something in front of him, he has this explosive gear that is uncommon. They also try to move him around and he can either stand or put his hand down and has some Clay Matthews explosion and versatility from all sorts of spots. Some games he looks like he can get off the ball quick, but others he is the last guy out of his stance. On his game, he attacks in a blur. He is clearly far more a tools prospect than a finished product and unfortunately, his 2013 was more productive than his 2014 in almost every category. Against the run, he can get to the sideline with a runner and keep contain. That speaks to his future as a LB or a very athletic pass rush DE. His best attribute might be his swim moves. Very solid. He is active on pass rush and he plays faster if he can smell the ball. He is great using his hands on a tackle to gain an edge.

What I did not like: I really look for a high motor in my front 7 defensive players as I know Rod Marinelli wants that badly. We will trade motor for ability to a certain point, but for the most part, I need a guy that is always chasing. I did not see that consistently from Gregory. Some weeks, every play looked important. Other weeks, it did not. I am not sure what his true position is because as a 4-3 defensive end, he is not strong enough for me. His weight is a red flag (too light), but I have seen guys make that weight work because they are quite strong. He is slender and is not winning much on leverage or power, so I think he has to be an outside LB on a 3-4, most likely. His pass rush moves seem awfully under-developed and raw.

Summary: There is no doubt he has off-the-charts upside and rare physical traits that the NFL loves to value. I don’t think he is a scheme fit in Dallas and while he might be a guy who develops into a monster, I am looking for a bit more polish for my projected Top 5 picks, usually. I like him, but I sure expected more. The Miami game was fantastic, but his final game – the Bowl game against USC was not very impressive as a whole.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
=====
Today’s Email/Tweet Of The Day:


Well, Stag, this one is interesting. So, all things are equal, and the Cowboys have the 27th pick and I can go get a solid player at any spot I want. Ok, under those parameters, let’s make a mental list. It is our biggest asset of the offseason, so we better not be too flippant about how we spend it.

Options:

Running back – if I allow DeMarco Murray to go, can I get Melvin Gordon there? Tempting.
Right Tackle – Do I keep adding to the offensive line and replace Free/Parnell?
Defensive Tackle – What would a stud next to Tyrone Crawford look like inside?
Defensive End – Can I find a long-term DeMarcus Lawrence bookend with 10 sack range?
Cornerback – Do I keep adding to a secondary and allow myself to move on from Carr?
Safety – Do I finally invest in a centerfield prospect who can make QBs pay downfield?
Those are my options and they all are worth considering. As we sit here on the eve of Senior Bowl week, I would rank them from most preferred to least preferred: DE, S, DT, CB, RB, RT.

I really want a power pass rusher at defensive end. One who demands your attention and double teams or he gets to your QB. The issue is that those “can’t miss” edge rushers are usually long gone before #27.
=====
TOMORROW:
On Tuesday, we get cracking on the Senior Bowl and look at Missouri DE Shane Ray.
 

boozeman

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[h=1]Bob Sturm’s Offseason Digest No. 2: Senior Bowl players to watch; why some views of DeMarco Murray are unfair[/h]

[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]

Published: January 20, 2015 11:01 am











Today, in Mobile, Alabama, the Senior Bowl cranks up again for all of the football world to gather and examine the new crop of players that we will look at carefully before this spring’s NFL Draft. The game started in 1950 and has grown steadily over the years to what is now the unofficial start of draft season. There is still one game to play on the NFL docket, but 30 of the 32 teams are now “waiting until next year” and they love the opportunity to see and talk to these many young men in person.

Consider it the first and best opportunity to show your possible employers what you are all about. That is why some cringe when players opt out of this game – if healthy, why would someone not want to compete for the NFL coaches and eyeballs if you wish to be employed there for the next decade?

But, every year, many do opt out. Especially those that fancy themselves in the “I have nothing to prove” category. Unfortunately, many misread their status and actually do themselves a fair amount of harm. Others are noticed here and make their stock rise through the spring because of what they showed that (usually) chilly week in Mobile.

The North Squad has a number of names I will be watching, including a deep WR group that offers Ty Montgomery (Stanford), Jamison Crowder (Duke), Devin Smith (Ohio State), and Antwan Goodley (Baylor). They also have Bryce Petty (Baylor) playing QB, with Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska) and David Cobb (Minnesota) among their RB ranks.
Other likely “Top 100″ prospects on the North include (but are not limited to): OT TJ Clemmings (Pittsburgh), DT Danny Shelton and DE Hau’oli Kikaha (both of Washington), S Kurtis Drummond (Michigan State), CB Quandre Diggs (Texas), DT Carl Davis (Iowa), DE Za’Darius Smith (Kentucky).

Meanwhile, the South Squad features some interesting targets as well. Several interesting defensive linemen are on that side, with Trey Flowers (Arkansas), Gabe Wright (Auburn), Lorenzo Mauldin (Louisville), Owamagbe Obdighizuwa (UCLA), and Markus Golden (Missouri) the most notable.

The South is pretty stacked on the OL as well, with Tre Jackson (Florida State), Reese Dismukes (Auburn), Ty Sambrailo (Colorado State), La’el Collins (LSU), Arie Kouandijo (Alabama), and Daryl Williams (Oklahoma) all up front. Several of those big men could be in the very 1st round in April.

Of the South skill position players, Nick Marshall, Sammie Coates, and Cameron Artis-Payne (all Auburn) will get close examination. Others include two smaller receivers you might like for the slot at some point in Phillip Dorsett (Miami) and Tyler Lockett (Kansas State). And Ole’ Miss has 2 impressive defensive backs on this side with Cody Prewitt and Senquez Golson.

If you are like me and you really enjoy the easy way to get to know many of these players better, the NFL Network does a nice job of coverage all week from Mobile. Their broadcast times are listed below:

Tuesday (Today): 2pm-4pm; Wednesday: 2pm-4pm; Thursday: 2pm-4pm
Saturday: Senior Bowl – 3pm
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DRAFT NERD COMMANDMENTS: I thought about assembling a list of draft premises that have bothered me over the years. I am not sure I have 10 of these, and maybe you would care to add to the list, but allow me to periodically share some things I have been told or learned from experience that are quite helpful. Here is today’s.

NEVER ALLOW THE SCHOOL TO CONTROL YOUR PERCEPTION OF THE PLAYER.

Oh, this guy went to USC? He went to Notre Dame? He went to Emporia State? He went to Ouachita Baptist? Well, then, that tells us about all the other famous players who either went to that same school or did not.

No! The school means something, but in the big scheme of things, it does not. Just because California gave us Kyle Boller, Rich Campbell, and Pat Barnes at QB does not mean that Aaron Rodgers isn’t there now. Pittsburgh gave us WR Larry Fitzgerald, but it also gave us Antonio Bryant and Doug Baldwin. For every QB like Joe Montana from Notre Dame, we dealt with Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn far more often.

You are not drafting the School. You are drafting one single player. Do everything in your power to not have bias (either way) about the uniform you see a guy wearing. This gets very tricky with Alabama or Florida State who have entire defenses filled with NFL Prospects. They all help each other look better and it is tough to separate. Do you like a single player from Troy (DeMarcus Ware) or Memphis (Dontari Poe) who is out there by themselves at times?

Don’t get caught up in thinking every DE from Missouri is Aldon Smith or Justin Smith or Michael Sam or Kony Ealy. They are individuals and we have to rate them as such.
With that in mind….

=====

DRAFT PROFILE:
(Each issue of S.O.D., we shall tackle another draft prospect. No, I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

Shane Ray, DE, Missouri – 6’3, 250 – Age 22

It is clear at Missouri they have a pipeline to pass rushers, as last year Kony Ealy and Michael Sam were all the rage, and one year later, here comes Ray and Markus Golden to also push into the draft. I want to be careful here with those numbers above. We think he is about 250 pounds, but his weigh-in at the combine is going to really affect his perception as much as anyone in the draft. It is vital that he shows the NFL he can be big enough to deal with the run and maintain his absurd explosion that he showed on film. I will always error on the side of what he did on a college field over the “underwear olympics” in the spring, but I will admit that sitting out the Senior Bowl and trying to bulk up is not a bad idea for his camp. He is thought of as potentially the best pass rusher in the entire draft. I watched the Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas A&M games.


What I liked: He is the real deal as an edge rusher with quickness and overall explosion that is just silly. There are times where you wonder what the left tackle across from him must be thinking because in the case of the Kentucky game in particular, that poor guy was overmatched all day. He draws holding calls on a regular basis because his “get-off” is so impressive. At his size, he is just too quick for offensive linemen to deal with. Especially, when Missouri would stunt him inside and get him isolated against a guard. That was a no contest. He rallies to the ball well. He has a swat move where he can knock guys off balance by just using one arm to push them aside. He may be undersized, but unlike Nebraska’s Gregory, Ray appears to be very strong for his size. He can move larger men with one arm. He lines up all over as RDE, LDE, and even DT. He produced a silly 36 explosion plays in 2014 (Sacks + Tackles For Loss).

What I did not like: It is true that stopping the run will not be his forte. He does get pushed inside when a team wants to run to his edge. We need to make sure he can be an every down DE in the NFL in the 4-3, or teams will consider him another OLB in the 3-4. I think he has the tools to do either, but this could get him flagged as a potential tweener who is without a true position. He lost his mind in the SEC Championship Game and got ejected for a cheap shot, so he better be able to answer those questions this spring about composure and overall football IQ.

Summary: He is a legitimate 10-12 sack guy in the NFL. I have no problem expecting him to be one of the true risers in the spring and if he gets in to that 4.5, 40 range, he might be gone in the first hour of the draft. Keep in mind, before the snipers argue about Michael Sam, that Ray is so much faster than Sam that there is no comparison whatsoever. Sam ran a 4.91 at the combine. Ray is a physical freak. He has a full arsenal of pass rush moves already. This guy will really help a team’s pass rush the moment he arrives.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
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Today’s Email/Tweet Of The Day:

David-

I share your concerns about the future of DeMarco and the idea that this offensive line made him. I think those ideas are hopeful and speculative rather than founded in fact. I think Murray was a dynamite runner when he was able to stay healthy in pretty much every season he has been with the Cowboys. Any player with almost 1,000 carries who has almost 5 yards per carry during that stretch is not to be marginalized at all.

That said, we have a finite amount of cash here, so we cannot throw caution to the wind and keep him at any price. I think we have to look at the 3 principle questions of this offseason and pick the smartest 2. 1) Can I keep Dez Bryant? 2) Can I improve my defense (or at least not regress with massive personnel losses? 3) Can I keep DeMarco Murray?

Dez Bryant is a true #1 Wide Receiver who is quickly becoming a guy you wouldn’t trade for any receiver in the sport. His ability to win 1-on-1 matchups all season and put them in the end zone routinely speaks to his singular ability. That fateful moment over Sam Shields is a catch very few players make. The record books may not record that catch, but our eyes did. And he did it 10 times this year in slightly different variations. I must keep him. Like a true ace in baseball, those are rare finds.

There are a lot of concerns with the defense. Rolando McClain is a free agent. Justin Durant is, too. Bruce Carter, is too. Henry Melton is gone. Anthony Spencer is a UFA. Brandon Carr is a question mark. Yes, Sean Lee is returning, but I want to improve this defense and to do so, we can’t invest all cap room in Bryant and Murray.

That leads us back to the following – is there any way to keep DeMarco without going crazy? My hope would be to franchise tag him and lock up Bryant in a deal that pays him well, but doesn’t hit the Cowboys with a massive cap charge in 2015. Use that 1-year window to continue to use Murray heavily and spread out Bryant’s hit to not really be a factor until beyond Murray’s 1-year window. I think that can happen. Now, instead of $15m on Bryant and $10 on Murray, you would hope to get both for $15m in 2015.

Complex, but not impossible. You would need some extra years on the end of Dez to spread his bonus down.

I hear all of the other ideas – Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, etc, but if I am paying a player who is already in the league, I want it to be a player who I know can do it all and was one of my true warriors this year. That is DeMarco.

He may be gone, but I would want every stone turned over, first.

=====
TOMORROW:
Next time, we will look at Kentucky Edge Rusher Bud Dupree.
 

boozeman

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[h=1]Bob Sturm’s 2015 NFL Draft profile: What I see in Alvin ‘Bud’ Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky[/h]

[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]

Published: January 22, 2015 2:07 pm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

Alvin “Bud” Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky – 6’4, 264 – Age 21
For the 2nd day in a row, let’s check out a fantastic pass rusher from the SEC East. Bud Dupree is a 4-year starter at Kentucky who has grown into one of the more exciting pass rushers in this draft. He was not a guy who was on my radar a year ago when we started sorting through the names for the 2015 draft, but in becoming familiar with what he brings to the table, he is another guy who might be in the mix for the Top half of Round 1 if he has a nice spring.
He annoyed the Senior Bowl (along with several others) by opting out of this week in Mobile as we are sure he was advised that he had “more to lose” by going, but a quick view of his tape indicates that he might be right. For his report, I watched Kentucky play Mississippi State, Missouri, and Louisville.

What I liked: In watching edge rusher after edge rusher in this portion of our study, it is clear that some just have the tools and technique to get the corner naturally and with ease. Bud Dupree has a certain element of “DeMarcus Ware” to his game and is as natural as you would hope. He explodes off the snap and around a tackle at times and on his day is one explosive play after another. He also had several occasions this year where on run plays he would jump through a gap before the guard/tackle could close the window and be on the running back as he takes the hand-off, leading to a tackle for loss and a forced fumble. As you know, I am always looking for relentless chasers with motors through the whistle, and in the games I watched, I was very impressed with how badly he wanted the tackle. He is just a terribly impressive athlete who has traits that cannot be taught. It would seem that he can develop into a real game-breaker.

What I did not like: There are moments where you want more. As impressive as he is, his production level of only 7.5 sacks in 2014 and 7 sacks in 2013 does make you wonder. He really looks like he has a gear he can find at any point, but in watching 200 of his snaps or so, I would have guessed I was watching a 15 sack season this year. That did not happen for him. His scheme will again be important, but, like Ware, when we are talking 6’4 and 265 before he enters the league, he can do either. I would not assume I want him chasing Darren Sproles around too much in coverage, though. His run game instincts are good going forward, but something he will have to refine at the next level. There are a few occasions where it looks like he breaks scheme and freelances a bit.

Summary: I would probably take Shane Ray before Bud Dupree, but based on the college tape, I think they are both better than Randy Gregory in the present tense. Gregory and Dupree could have another gear to their careers, though, based on how well they are developed in their young NFL seasons. Dupree was a tight end conversion in college and just looks like that type of electric player who should get you very excited to join your side. I wonder if his Senior Bowl opt out might get him into Dallas’ neighborhood. If so, that is an exciting possibility to consider, opposite DeMarcus Lawrence.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
 

Simpleton

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If Dupree is there at 27 you take him without hesitation, he won't be though as he is already seemingly out of our range and I suspect he will blow up at the Combine/individual workouts.
 

boozeman

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If Dupree is there at 27 you take him without hesitation, he won't be though as he is already seemingly out of our range and I suspect he will blow up at the Combine/individual workouts.
The more I study the guys and how they appear to be trending, the more I think we will not have a shot at most if not all the top guys.

That means we have this staring us in the face at DE: Odighizuwa, Armstead, Golden and Orchard.

Most seem like Lawrence type prospects. We really need more unfortunately. What we've seen in recent years with guys chosen in that range, they are more likely to be a Dee Ford, Marcus Smith, Bjoern Werner, Whitney Mercilus, etc.
 

boozeman

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Sturm is dead on about Gregory IMO.

I can't figure the reason why he's dead solid in the top 2-3 guys in practically every ranking you see and guys like Fowler, Beasley etc. are often ranked so much lower than him.

He has "freak" traits but I think people are stopping there.
 

Simpleton

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The more I study the guys and how they appear to be trending, the more I think we will not have a shot at most if not all the top guys.

That means we have this staring us in the face at DE: Odighizuwa, Armstead, Golden and Orchard.

Most seem like Lawrence type prospects. We really need more unfortunately. What we've seen in recent years with guys chosen in that range, they are more likely to be a Dee Ford, Marcus Smith, Bjoern Werner, Whitney Mercilus, etc.
I agree, it's very possible that the BPA at 27 might not be on the DL. Of course we have to see what happens in free agency first as I suspect our first priority will be an edge rusher. I like the alphabet guy from UCLA but if guys like Goldman, Malcom Brown and Michael Bennett are all gone at 27 we might be best served trading down 10 or so spots with a team who wants to take a QB and get that extra year on the rookie contract. A guy like Orchard or alphabet guy would look a hell of alot better at 35 with an extra 3rd in hand.
 

boozeman

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I agree, it's very possible that the BPA at 27 might not be on the DL. Of course we have to see what happens in free agency first as I suspect our first priority will be an edge rusher. I like the alphabet guy from UCLA but if guys like Goldman, Malcom Brown and Michael Bennett are all gone at 27 we might be best served trading down 10 or so spots with a team who wants to take a QB and get that extra year on the rookie contract. A guy like Orchard or alphabet guy would look a hell of alot better at 35 with an extra 3rd in hand.
I would be perfectly fine with a trade down out of the first this year if things shake out like I expect.

We need to throw numbers at the defense, not just at end, but tackle and the back seven. An extra third would be very nice.

If I am faced with the guys I mentioned at end, I try real damn hard to trade out and hope there is some WR or something that someone falls in love with.

Big problem this year is that there will likely not be the first round QB that will slip down because there are only like five guys even worth drafting at all.
 

Carp

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Usually there is a QB you can identify as one teams might try to move up for...maybe Hundley, but I doubt it.
 

Carp

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That's what I was thinking, Hundley would be the one I had to guess.
I have seen some stuff out there that if Kelly cannot get Mariota that he has interest in Hundley at 20. Yes please.
 

boozeman

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That's what I was thinking, Hundley would be the one I had to guess.
Unless something drastic happens, Hundley will not be a first rounder. He pissed off a lot of people by not going to the Senior Bowl. Most consensus now has only two QBS going in the top 100.
 

Simpleton

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Unless something drastic happens, Hundley will not be a first rounder. He pissed off a lot of people by not going to the Senior Bowl. Most consensus now has only two QBS going in the top 100.
All it takes is one team to fall in love with his physical traits at his Pro Day, which as we all know happens every year. Often times teams will want that extra year that comes with a 1st round contract in order to make a more informed decision, so I don't think its all that improbable.
 

boozeman

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[h=1]Bob Sturm’s 2015 NFL Draft profile: What I see in Leonard Williams, DE, USC[/h]

[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]

Published: January 23, 2015 2:11 pm











I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

Leonard Williams, DE, USC – 6’5, 300 – Age 20

There are players that come along that get you very excited to know you are looking at a guy who people will most likely talk about for the next decade. There are no guarantees, but once in a while a prospect arrives and has almost nothing to complain about. Welcome to that guy in this draft. There may be someone who we examine that will be on his level, but I highly doubt there is anyone who will exceed his level of excellence in the 2015 draft. I watched the Nebraska, California, and Stanford games to review his work.

Williams is just 20 years old. He played at USC (very well) as a true freshman, and now, just 3 seasons into his college career he has turned pro and shot to the top of everyone’s board. He was a “Top 5″ guy in the spring, the summer, the fall, and now the winter. He is as versatile as they come and that is why it doesn’t seem that he is scheme dependent.

What I liked: In short, just about everything. He is versatile in every aspect, meaning he can beat you with cat-like quickness that is uncommon for a player of that size or he can beat you with strength. He can beat you inside or outside. He can play DT, NT, RDE, or LDE. He can play the 5-technique in a 3-4 or the inside. He can even stand up as a OLB on the outside if you wish, although that doesn’t seem to be as natural. The point is, you don’t have to worry about how he fits. His hands are quick and powerful, he swims right past his man in a blur, and the best attribute may be his ability to contort and squeeze through tight areas to split gaps wide open. He gets off blocks, but he also holds them up with 1-arm until the ball carrier gets close, then pushes the OL away to make the stop. His motor is great and he is as disruptive as they come. You constantly see offenses scheme their entire day around him so as not to mess with him if possible. In short, he is the best up front at what he does since Ndamukong Suh was at Nebraska. In fact, if you needed a clone, there you go. He plays the run very well and he has really impressive pass rush for a 300-pound hulk. I could go on about him for quite a while.

What I did not like: In short, almost nothing. If there is anything that gives you brief pause, it is that he seemed to always be dealing with a nagging issue or injury. It never appeared overly serious, but he had to gut through a shoulder and ankle issue in both 2013 and 2014. Otherwise, he is a plug-and-play difference maker.

Summary: Every year, those of us who study prospects see plenty of players we think could go either way and end up making us look silly. But, there are a few you are willing to guarantee their stardom moving forward, so much so that you realize he won’t fall to your spot in the draft – which means now you just hope he goes somewhere in the league where he won’t destroy your team very often. In other words, Washington at #5 would not be a preferred destination for Mr Williams. I am pretty sure he is going to be a force in the trenches for a long, long time. And he is 20!
 

boozeman

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[h=1]Bob Sturm’s 2015 NFL Draft profile: What I see in Dante Fowler, DE, Florida[/h]

[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]

Published: January 22, 2015 8:25 am











I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

It is important to understand that everything is relative in the NFL Draft. Some years, there are only 20 1st round players, other years there are 40. Yet, there are only 32 1st round picks every single year. Some years, there are top quarterbacks in the draft, other years there are none – yet, someone will get elevated to the #1 QB chosen as he is the best of the choices. Some years, guys get pushed up because they might be special soon – but are not the finished product now.
I say that to say that Dante Fowler is one of the most talked about edge rushers in this draft – and he has some very interesting and unique talents, yet for me, I don’t understand the superlative reviews I have heard around the water cooler from others that put him at the very top of the 1st round. I would enjoy having him on my team, but I think this is a spot where you can overpay and over invest and while the ceiling is high, I am worried about that floor. I watched the Florida State, LSU, Alabama, and Kentucky games to get a feel for what he is all about.

What I liked: There are moments where he looks like he has a rocket strapped on his back as he explodes through the line and into the backfield. He is exceptional at shooting gaps and causing panic from guards and tackles who are trying to hold him off. He also has a backside chase down the line of scrimmage on runs away from him that are the best I have seen from the players we have looked at. He can run with any RB to the edge and you are going to have a real hard time turning the corner on him. He packs a punch when he wants to get into that backfield and was a clear leader and centerpiece of that Florida defense as he was given the ability to play all over the place: RDE, LDE, Inside LB on 3rd Downs, and was moved to find the appropriate matchup that they were looking for. He plays very hard and certainly feeds off all of the responsibility he has been given by the coaching staff.

What I did not like: It did not seem that he was terribly consistent in his performance. There would be plays where he looked great, and others where he would not play the technique properly and get caught inside on a run to his edge. He would seem to freelance and leave holes in his spot. He would also be attacked with direct blocks in the run game and was not holding his spot, even against some Tight Ends, which was quite disappointing. He should have more power, which he may grow into, but for now that is a glaring weakness. The LSU TE, in particular, had quite an evening knocking Fowler out of the way. His pass rush is all based on burst as his moves are nothing great. He insists on a spin move that is very telegraphed and ineffective. Overall, for this ability and flash, I was hoping for more production relative to those other edge rushers in this mix at the top of the draft.

Summary: He is an amazing specimen where any coach worth his salt will see the traits that they always covet. And he won’t turn 21 years old until training camp, so he is very raw and young. With Rod Marinelli as a top developmental coach, I would be fine with handing this project over, but there is a lot of refinement necessary in this player’s game which is why I fear he can be over-drafted. He is what I might call “Sportscenter Great”, meaning his Top 10 moments of the year are off the charts. But, to properly know a player, you can’t just look at his best. You have to look at his ability to show you 60 solid plays in a game, not 2 exceptional and 5 where you don’t know what he is trying to accomplish. Don’t get me wrong, I would like to have him, but I don’t think he is ready to be a beast in the NFL. I do, however, expect that he will take over the combine with his physical traits and be a big name this spring. And, to be fair, by age 23 with the proper coaching? He might be something very special.
 

Simpleton

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Luckily Williams is a top 3 lock and I agree about Fowler, I'd be thrilled with him at 27 of course but I'd be just as happy with Dupree and I don't really get all the top 10 lock talk.
 

boozeman

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[h=1]Sturm’s Draft Profile: Eli Harold, DE/OLB, Virginia[/h]

[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]

Published: January 24, 2015 9:55 am

(I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

Eli Harold, DE/OLB, Virginia – 6’4, 250
This is the year for the edge rusher and for a team like the Cowboys who need pass “rushmen”, we better get familiar with the whole bunch if we can. Eli Harold is yet another player who is highly regarded for being an athletically-inclined talent who you can clearly see flashes of everything you look for on Sundays. When you read his background, it all seems to make sense as he is an exceptional track star in high school with the events that require explosion and speed. To study his work, I watched the following Virginia games from 2014: UCLA, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Louisville.


What I liked: He has top level quickness and explodes out of his stance at times and if you dare run the zone read at him (UCLA) and decide to leave him as the unblocked man to read off, you will quickly see that he is athletic enough to stay home and wait you out before pouncing. His pass rush at its best is elite. He also can chase down a QB or a RB who is headed to the opposite sideline in a blur that dazzles. Very impressive ability to squeeze between gaps as well and not lose his balance or his momentum.

What I did not like: Unfortunately, there were too many times when we did not see his elite ability and this is a good lesson, perhaps, in watching enough of his tape that you aren’t completely mesmerized by the 10 best plays of his season. Like some others we have profiled, we wonder why in some games he looks like a 1st rounder and in others he looks like just another guy on the field. In the UCLA and Pitt games, he really never troubled the Left tackle and made them uncomfortable. He doesn’t seem to have much of a plan if the quickness doesn’t get him past his man. He seems to have none of that functional power that makes edge rushers who can convert from speed to power and back so dangerous. If you only have quick, then the offensive lineman across from you can quickly learn and react for the remainder of the day. This doesn’t mean that a young player like Harold can’t get stronger and figure out a better arsenal of moves, but at the present, he isn’t close. He also gets stuck on blocks and when a tackle gets a hand on him, he is eliminated from the play way too often – relative to some of the others we have studied. I wish there was just more production. He had 7 sacks in 2014, with 5.5 of them in September. That means there was 1.5 sacks in the final 7 games for a guy who is going against college left tackles. I need more.

Summary: To me, this is another case of a player who has incredible natural talents that a coaching staff might see and be confident that they can work him into a stud. But, in the case of this exercise where the number #1 rule is to “trust your eyes”, I must tell you that I wanted to see much more consistency in his game and power to use when needed. He does look like you would expect a track guy to look when he plays football. Very “toolsy”, but not physical enough when the play is right at him and not enough power to be feared and schemed around. I definitely see what people like, but there wasn’t enough to say that he belongs as a 1st rounder for me. I would say, depending on the game you grab, that he is a Top 30 guy on many occasions (Louisville), but unfortunately, just a Top 100 guy just as often.
 

Jiggyfly

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Looks like middle of the 2nd is the place to be to get bang for your buck on pass rushers if you are not in the top 15.

Like others have said a trade down looks like the best move, that bottom of the 1st is littered with bust types on the DL.
 

Clay_Allison

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Looks like middle of the 2nd is the place to be to get bang for your buck on pass rushers if you are not in the top 15.

Like others have said a trade down looks like the best move, that bottom of the 1st is littered with bust types on the DL.
It's not like you're obligated to take the bust types. I don't mind taking a trade down to 2 for a 3rd, but if their scouting shows one guy is a cut above the rest I'd rather take him in the first than give up a third to move up in the 2nd to get him. Trading up is a going to be a bad move more often than not if you give up a premium pick (1-3) to get there. For all that our drafting has improved, we've been too willing to do that (Claiborne, Lawrence) instead of letting the draft come to us.
 
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