Jiggyfly
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Sturm: Where's DeMarco when you need him? Cowboys' offense is NFL's worst on 3rd and 1
So much of 2015 has been boiled down to having the Quarterback in the huddle. If this team is to go anywhere, it must have Tony Romo, right? Or, if not, it must have better QB play from the backups. This whole thing can be explained away by not having a QB do impressive QB things.
But, what about the situations where the QB has almost nothing to do with the play?
This is the case with the most basic of offensive football situations. 3rd and 1.
So much of football requires precise skill and big chunks of yardage. But, on 3rd and 1, when your entire possession relies on your ability to get 36 inches by generally utilizing brute strength, it is often just 22 men in a phone booth playing what amounts to a 2-second match of muscle.
You would assume that the Dallas Cowboys would be great at this. After all, who would you rather have on your side when you need a yard than Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Lael Collins, and Tyron Smith? All regarded as blue chip talents and lauded for what they accomplish, surely the Cowboys are well equipped to get 3rd and 1, even if the QB play makes 3rd and 10 next to impossible, right?
Wrong.
All season long, this team has struggled on 3rd downs, but just about all of these issues come back to the fact that not only are the Cowboys bad on 3rd and 1 - they are the worst. And, not even that says it strongly enough. They are dead last by a good ways.
On 17 occasions this season, the Cowboys have had 3rd and 1. Just to give you an idea of what the normal NFL team is doing in these situations, the league average on 3rd and 1 is converting 66% of the time. Oakland, Seattle, Philadelphia, and San Diego all convert 3rd and 1 at over 80%. On the other side, Baltimore and Green Bay are very poor in these scenarios and they only convert 50%. But, even those teams can look down their noses at the Cowboys.
Dallas has had 17 cracks at 3rd and 1 and have converted only 7 times for 41%. Broken down, they have passed 5 times and are 1 for 5 on 3rd and 1 passes (Romo twice, Weeden twice, Cassel once) and run 12 times in which they have converted on 6 of 12.
This is just awful any way you look at it. And it leads to many other issues that then creep in as you turn touchdowns into field goals with this inefficiency and field goals into punts. To make matters even worse, when you look carefully at this team's issues, we are led to believe they are generally poor on 3rd down because of QB play. By the way, it sure looked like that on Monday night as Cassel struggled on 3rd down, partly because Washington brought the Cover 0 blitzes to get right in his face.
While there is some truth to it, the fact is that the Cowboys are at least league-average when it comes to 3rd downs if you simply look at the numbers for 3rd and medium or 3rd and long - where it relies most on the QB's ability to be great. But, on 3rd and short, it is mostly his job to hand the ball off and get out of the way.
This, of course, does include a few exceptions: 1) the QB does have the ability to check into a different play if he sees big issues before the snap. And 2) some QBs, Cam Newton and Tom Brady both come to mind, are real threats on 3rd down to sneak the ball the 36 inches and just move the chains themselves. Even with Tony Romo healthy, this has seldom been a solution for the Cowboys. It is hard to recall very many conversions from Romo with a sneak.
So, when you pull the QB out of the mix, then you understand on 3rd and 1, you are trying to block 11 guys with 9 blockers. The ball carrier only needs a yard, but part of the math equation is the truth that there simply aren't enough guys to get you there.
Additionally, there are many (I am included in this group) that are driven crazy by knowing that Jason Garrett will not go for it on 4th and 1 to try to turn field goals into touchdowns when the odds are stacked against his team. But, to be fair to his decision making process, if the team is poor at 3rd and 1 - which they certainly are - why would there be optimism for 4th and 1?
Let's look at two crucial 3rd and 1 failures from Monday night.
Above is the 3rd and 1 in the 3rd Quarter at the Washington 15 yard line. This has been a great long drive, but the team needs 36 inches. As you can see, they go with 23 personnel which brings all 11 Redskins into the box. The Cowboys motion James Hanna and also have Tyler Clutts as lead blockers, but the real issue is an edge defender coming from the far left of the screen getting to McFadden quickly and grabbing him around the neck. You can also see that the play takes too long because the Redskins are flooding the gaps once they get the impression of the direction of the play.
Personally, I do not love the 23 personnel decision, but the Cowboys insist on it. I like spreading the defense out - Dez Bryant is on the sideline. Bryant attracts at least 2 defenders usually, but I suppose that would require the slightest hint that the QB might actually throw there. I also am a big fan at the FB dive here because the defense is keying on McFadden so often if you sneak it into the gut of the lead blocker, he has a chance - but again, the Cowboys have never considered giving Tyler Clutts the ball in a deceptive plan to get a yard. In 68 NFL games, Clutts has 0 NFL carries.
So, the Cowboys telegraph that McFadden is going to get the ball and trust their offensive line to hold off everyone, but as you can see, there are only 5 OL and 11 defenders. That means the tight ends have to be great, the lead blockers have to be great, and it has to hit quickly. You only need a yard, but it is not close to being a success.
Here is another. This followed the long pass to Dez to the 3 yard line. Surely this will be the go-ahead touchdown. They only need 3 yards. This is 3rd and Goal from the 1.
This time, it is 13 personnel. No Clutts, but also, no Dez! At the goal-line, no Dez? They elect Lucky Whitehead as a better asset, and Cassel motions him in. To do what?
Confusing, but as you can see, Doug Free loses his gap, and that means Jason Witten is left to deal with the massive Chris Baker and he loses, too. Again, a real mess at the point of attack that seems to cause us to question the actual concept and play design.
The play has to happen fast, because the longer it takes, the more defenders come streaming down hill. This is the argument for the QB sneak or the spread out offense with 3 or 4 receivers trying to pull defenders out of the box.
Regardless, this team is no 7 for 17 on 3rd and 1. 41% when the league average is 66%. If you just convert at that clip, it is possible this team has a much better feel for their entire 3rd down performance.
The rest of the article is here.
http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2015/12/09/sturm-cowboys-offense-nfls-worst-3rd-1
So much of 2015 has been boiled down to having the Quarterback in the huddle. If this team is to go anywhere, it must have Tony Romo, right? Or, if not, it must have better QB play from the backups. This whole thing can be explained away by not having a QB do impressive QB things.
But, what about the situations where the QB has almost nothing to do with the play?
This is the case with the most basic of offensive football situations. 3rd and 1.
So much of football requires precise skill and big chunks of yardage. But, on 3rd and 1, when your entire possession relies on your ability to get 36 inches by generally utilizing brute strength, it is often just 22 men in a phone booth playing what amounts to a 2-second match of muscle.
You would assume that the Dallas Cowboys would be great at this. After all, who would you rather have on your side when you need a yard than Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Lael Collins, and Tyron Smith? All regarded as blue chip talents and lauded for what they accomplish, surely the Cowboys are well equipped to get 3rd and 1, even if the QB play makes 3rd and 10 next to impossible, right?
Wrong.
All season long, this team has struggled on 3rd downs, but just about all of these issues come back to the fact that not only are the Cowboys bad on 3rd and 1 - they are the worst. And, not even that says it strongly enough. They are dead last by a good ways.
On 17 occasions this season, the Cowboys have had 3rd and 1. Just to give you an idea of what the normal NFL team is doing in these situations, the league average on 3rd and 1 is converting 66% of the time. Oakland, Seattle, Philadelphia, and San Diego all convert 3rd and 1 at over 80%. On the other side, Baltimore and Green Bay are very poor in these scenarios and they only convert 50%. But, even those teams can look down their noses at the Cowboys.
Dallas has had 17 cracks at 3rd and 1 and have converted only 7 times for 41%. Broken down, they have passed 5 times and are 1 for 5 on 3rd and 1 passes (Romo twice, Weeden twice, Cassel once) and run 12 times in which they have converted on 6 of 12.
This is just awful any way you look at it. And it leads to many other issues that then creep in as you turn touchdowns into field goals with this inefficiency and field goals into punts. To make matters even worse, when you look carefully at this team's issues, we are led to believe they are generally poor on 3rd down because of QB play. By the way, it sure looked like that on Monday night as Cassel struggled on 3rd down, partly because Washington brought the Cover 0 blitzes to get right in his face.
While there is some truth to it, the fact is that the Cowboys are at least league-average when it comes to 3rd downs if you simply look at the numbers for 3rd and medium or 3rd and long - where it relies most on the QB's ability to be great. But, on 3rd and short, it is mostly his job to hand the ball off and get out of the way.
This, of course, does include a few exceptions: 1) the QB does have the ability to check into a different play if he sees big issues before the snap. And 2) some QBs, Cam Newton and Tom Brady both come to mind, are real threats on 3rd down to sneak the ball the 36 inches and just move the chains themselves. Even with Tony Romo healthy, this has seldom been a solution for the Cowboys. It is hard to recall very many conversions from Romo with a sneak.
So, when you pull the QB out of the mix, then you understand on 3rd and 1, you are trying to block 11 guys with 9 blockers. The ball carrier only needs a yard, but part of the math equation is the truth that there simply aren't enough guys to get you there.
Additionally, there are many (I am included in this group) that are driven crazy by knowing that Jason Garrett will not go for it on 4th and 1 to try to turn field goals into touchdowns when the odds are stacked against his team. But, to be fair to his decision making process, if the team is poor at 3rd and 1 - which they certainly are - why would there be optimism for 4th and 1?
Let's look at two crucial 3rd and 1 failures from Monday night.
Above is the 3rd and 1 in the 3rd Quarter at the Washington 15 yard line. This has been a great long drive, but the team needs 36 inches. As you can see, they go with 23 personnel which brings all 11 Redskins into the box. The Cowboys motion James Hanna and also have Tyler Clutts as lead blockers, but the real issue is an edge defender coming from the far left of the screen getting to McFadden quickly and grabbing him around the neck. You can also see that the play takes too long because the Redskins are flooding the gaps once they get the impression of the direction of the play.
Personally, I do not love the 23 personnel decision, but the Cowboys insist on it. I like spreading the defense out - Dez Bryant is on the sideline. Bryant attracts at least 2 defenders usually, but I suppose that would require the slightest hint that the QB might actually throw there. I also am a big fan at the FB dive here because the defense is keying on McFadden so often if you sneak it into the gut of the lead blocker, he has a chance - but again, the Cowboys have never considered giving Tyler Clutts the ball in a deceptive plan to get a yard. In 68 NFL games, Clutts has 0 NFL carries.
So, the Cowboys telegraph that McFadden is going to get the ball and trust their offensive line to hold off everyone, but as you can see, there are only 5 OL and 11 defenders. That means the tight ends have to be great, the lead blockers have to be great, and it has to hit quickly. You only need a yard, but it is not close to being a success.
Here is another. This followed the long pass to Dez to the 3 yard line. Surely this will be the go-ahead touchdown. They only need 3 yards. This is 3rd and Goal from the 1.
This time, it is 13 personnel. No Clutts, but also, no Dez! At the goal-line, no Dez? They elect Lucky Whitehead as a better asset, and Cassel motions him in. To do what?
Confusing, but as you can see, Doug Free loses his gap, and that means Jason Witten is left to deal with the massive Chris Baker and he loses, too. Again, a real mess at the point of attack that seems to cause us to question the actual concept and play design.
The play has to happen fast, because the longer it takes, the more defenders come streaming down hill. This is the argument for the QB sneak or the spread out offense with 3 or 4 receivers trying to pull defenders out of the box.
Regardless, this team is no 7 for 17 on 3rd and 1. 41% when the league average is 66%. If you just convert at that clip, it is possible this team has a much better feel for their entire 3rd down performance.
The rest of the article is here.
http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2015/12/09/sturm-cowboys-offense-nfls-worst-3rd-1