Boozeman: Gauging importance of tight ends to Cowboys' 2018 playoff hopes

Cotton

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Hey Iamtdg, is there any way of ranking/comparing the defenses we faced (especially their 3rd down efficiency) in '14 and '17? Dare I say that the NFC East itself was much improved.
Here are the two years, comparatively. These numbers are our 3rd down conversion rate, so you can see our opponents stop rate, as well, using these numbers. Looks like we were only about 2.2% better in 2014 versus 2017.

2014:



2017:

 

p1_

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On 3rd downs where Witten caught a pass, he was targeted 18 times for a reception, achieving a first down on 8 of them. That's 44.4% of the catches ended in first down.
where is your data coming from, sir? thats pretty cool.
 

L.T. Fan

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I wonder what happened in between those three years? I can't seem to remember.

Also, Witten was above the team average even in 2017. I'm not sure how that could be construed as *Witten* holding the team back.
It was how theyused Witten. Back up a few posts and I gave an explanation.
 

data

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He was at 50% in 2015 and 44.4% in 2016.

2015:



2016:

doesnt seem right. In 2016, we threw one 3rd down pass to Dez Bryant?

Then, Witten has the essentially same conversion success with Cassell/Weeden 5-11 year versus 13-3 #1 seed 2016 with Dak?
 

Cowboysrock55

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In 2017 our third down conversion rate was 42%.

Which was 6th in the NFL. So certainly it wasn't an area of weakness for Dallas last year. In 2016 we had a pretty similar 43% conversion rate. So our offense still obviously moved the ball extremely well the last couple of years.
 

Cowboysrock55

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It was how theyused Witten. Back up a few posts and I gave an explanation.
Well I agree with this. Although my opinion is he shouldn't have been on the field when we were spreading things out on third down. I know you're still convinced that Witten was busy blocking the entire time. Apparently even out of 4 or 5 wide on third down.
 

P_T

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These were the stats I was looking for:

Team-Opp 3rd Down Success % - Def 3rd Down Rank

2014:
SF - 43% - 26
TEN - 41% - 19
STL - 38% - 15
NO - 46% - 31
HOU - 34% - 3
SEA - 37% - 8
NYG - 36% - 4
WAS - 43% - 24
ARZ - 38% - 12
JAC - 43% - 23
PHI - 38% - 13
CHI - 42% - 21
IND - 33% - 2

AVG - 39% - 15


2017:
NYG - 40% - 22
DEN - 32% - 2
ARZ - 38% - 6
LAR - 38% - 14
GB - 43% - 28
SF - 43% - 30
WAS - 37% - 9
KC - 40% - 23
ATL - 38% - 17
PHI - 32% - 3
LAC - 39% - 19
OAK - 41% - 26
SEA - 38% - 15

AVG - 38% - 16

The difference in 3rd down defenses that we faced in '14 & '17 was negligible.
 

Cotton

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These were the stats I was looking for:

Team-Opp 3rd Down Success % - Def 3rd Down Rank

2014:
SF - 43% - 26
TEN - 41% - 19
STL - 38% - 15
NO - 46% - 31
HOU - 34% - 3
SEA - 37% - 8
NYG - 36% - 4
WAS - 43% - 24
ARZ - 38% - 12
JAC - 43% - 23
PHI - 38% - 13
CHI - 42% - 21
IND - 33% - 2

AVG - 39% - 15


2017:
NYG - 40% - 22
DEN - 32% - 2
ARZ - 38% - 6
LAR - 38% - 14
GB - 43% - 28
SF - 43% - 30
WAS - 37% - 9
KC - 40% - 23
ATL - 38% - 17
PHI - 32% - 3
LAC - 39% - 19
OAK - 41% - 26
SEA - 38% - 15

AVG - 38% - 16

The difference in 3rd down defenses that we faced in '14 & '17 was negligible.
That’s damn close to what PFR came back with. Maybe I’m confused about what you were looking for.
 

Genghis Khan

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In 2017 our third down conversion rate was 42%.

Which was 6th in the NFL. So certainly it wasn't an area of weakness for Dallas last year. In 2016 we had a pretty similar 43% conversion rate. So our offense still obviously moved the ball extremely well the last couple of years.
Does that include rushing?
 

P_T

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That’s damn close to what PFR came back with. Maybe I’m confused about what you were looking for.
I was looking for our opponents' overall 3rd down stop rate, not just vs us. Maybe I was reading your data wrong.
 

L.T. Fan

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Well I agree with this. Although my opinion is he shouldn't have been on the field when we were spreading things out on third down. I know you're still convinced that Witten was busy blocking the entire time. Apparently even out of 4 or 5 wide on third down.
Maybe so but if you are going to leave him in on 3rd down don’t put him in a protect mode then throw to him at the line of scrimmage or so. This is also misusing him because he can’t gain much more than 4 yards with that set up. Either put him in a full route alignment or full protect but don’t put him in a protect mode then throw to him.
 

p1_

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The desperation that Garrett's now feeling has effectively killed the Rico Gathers project. Garrett doesnt trust Gathers enough to put him on the field, and Gathers looks to be a roster casualty in the making. Another team will surely reap the upside rewards of Rico Gathers.
 

Cotton

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I'm reading 11 FD in 28 Att in 2015 for a 39% FD rate
And 8 FD in 24 Att. in 2016 for 33.3%

Or?:unsure
I was talking about on balls that he caught which was the original question.
 
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