Boozeman: Gauging importance of tight ends to Cowboys' 2018 playoff hopes

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,583
Gauging importance of tight ends to Cowboys' 2018 playoff hopes
By: C.C. Boorman | 4 hours ago

Given the pass-happy state of the NFL, the Cowboys offensive attack is somewhat of a rarity as it is predicated on the run game. Unlike most teams, Dallas’ role for the tight end is somewhat marginalized to more of a blocker and chain mover than a true weapon which exists in many of the NFL’s high-powered offenses.

The retirement of Jason Witten in April served up a sudden jolt to the system, prompting fans to wonder exactly what life will be like without the franchise leader in receptions and receiving yards. He was steady and reliable, but also compartmentalized on what he could contribute as a playmaker.

With this fact in mind, Dallas’ playoff hopes may rest on how the offense adjusts to what could be a radical change in their passing game and especially the loss of Witten’s reliability for the last fifteen seasons.

The lingering question as training camp approaches is how Witten’s loss will be absorbed? Or does it even need to be?

It is unfair to expect another Witten to emerge from a group composed of Geoff Swaim, Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz, Rico Gathers and David Wells. These five players have only nine NFL receptions combined and would need to massively overachieve to get to his level, even as a unit.

To address the overall question if replicating Witten’s productivity is even necessary, an examination of the twelve 2017 playoff participants and how those teams utilized the position may gather some clues.

  • Of the twelve playoff contestants, five teams had individual players who at least equaled Witten’s individual total of 87 targets: Gronkowski (NE), Walker (TEN), Kelce (KC), Ertz (PHI) and Rudolph (MIN).
  • Pittsburgh and Atlanta featured extensive use of multiple WR packages with elite talent on the edges, so the position was utilized more as support for the run game.
  • The Bills, Panthers and Rams had injury or talent issues which resulted in a committee approach with numbers that approached Witten’s production.
  • There were two teams that had a collective productivity of their TE group that was less than Witten’s target range: New Orleans and Jacksonville.


Despite some baseless speculation about possible trades for Tyler Eifert (Bengals) or Jack Doyle (Colts), it is not very likely a dynamic solution will come from outside the organization via trade.

The current state of the Cowboys WR group lacks firepower and would eliminate the viability of a style shift similar to what the Falcons and Steelers employed.

As both the Saints and Jaguars had similar situations but were successful in getting to the tournament, we should look at how they got there.

The Saints are a unique case. They have a top shelf QB and a multi-dimensional scheme that features the backs extensively in the passing game. The platoon of Coby Fleener, Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui were mere accessory pieces when the Saints went to the air last season thanks in large part of to a skilled group of wide receivers. This is close to the landscape in Dallas, but the lack of a true No. 1 would restrict this approach.

Jacksonville’s situation could provide the Cowboys a model. As another run-first offense, they viewed the position as blocker first and passing-game target second. Veteran Marcedes Lewis was particularly deadly in the red zone, while James O’Shaughnessy chipped in with a few grabs. They also employed a WR corps that lacked star power after the loss of their WR1 Allen Robinson. At the very least, the Jaguars demonstrated it can be done, albeit with especially strong defensive support.

At the end of the day, the Cowboys would need quality blocking and a player capable of at least capitalizing on opportunities, particularly in the red zone. Is that player the steady Swaim? Darkhorse favorite Jarwin? The rookie Schultz? Or how about pre-season darling and fan favorite Rico Gathers?

There will soon be some answers to these questions as camp closes in and the most wide-open position on the roster will shake itself out. But ultimately the team must get this right if they hope to achieve their post-season aspirations.
 

DLK150

DCC 4Life
Joined
May 16, 2014
Messages
8,789
You get props just for spelling Michael Hoomanawanui correctly...
 

data

Forbes #1
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
50,285
Nice work. I’d be interested to see how many of Witten’s targets/receptions came on 3rd down and % getting 1st down.

In this post-Romo era, have a feeling Witten did more of a disservice to Dak’s offense. If Dak isn’t willing to throw beyond the sticks, at least throw it to an athlete with a better chance of getting YAC.

seems like Witten completion on 3rd down was automatic punt time. Joking here, but we’d be better off surprise punting on 3rd down for the better field position vs the 0% 1st down conversion rate to Witten for minimal yards gained.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,583
Nice work. I’d be interested to see how many of Witten’s targets/receptions came on 3rd down and % getting 1st down.

In this post-Romo era, have a feeling Witten did more of a disservice to Dak’s offense. If Dak isn’t willing to throw beyond the sticks, at least throw it to an athlete with a better chance of getting YAC.

seems like Witten completion on 3rd down was automatic punt time. Joking here, but we’d be better off surprise punting on 3rd down for the better field position vs the 0% 1st down conversion rate to Witten for minimal yards gained.


On 3rd downs where Witten caught a pass, he was targeted 18 times for a reception, achieving a first down on 8 of them. That's 44.4% of the catches ended in first down.
 

data

Forbes #1
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
50,285


On 3rd downs where Witten caught a pass, he was targeted 18 times for a reception, achieving a first down on 8 of them. That's 44.4% of the catches ended in first down.
~28 targets total adding the incompletions. ~30% conversion rate overall. Maybe 35-40% if we were to eliminate targets on improbable 3rd and 12+

If we compared this to the past 5 seasons, wed get a good idea of Witten’s consistency/declining success and what Wittens replacement this year has to makeup. Furthermore, could quickly figure out ‘Witten vs other players’ on 3rd down.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,341
~28 targets total adding the incompletions. ~30% conversion rate overall. Maybe 35-40% if we were to eliminate targets on improbable 3rd and 12+

If we compared this to the past 5 seasons, wed get a good idea of Witten’s consistency/declining success and what Wittens replacement this year has to makeup. Furthermore, could quickly figure out ‘Witten vs other players’ on 3rd down.
What's the team conversion rate? Plus I have to figure most of Wittens conversions are on third and very short. Something that is usually "easier".
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,583
~28 targets total adding the incompletions. ~30% conversion rate overall. Maybe 35-40% if we were to eliminate targets on improbable 3rd and 12+

If we compared this to the past 5 seasons, wed get a good idea of Witten’s consistency/declining success and what Wittens replacement this year has to makeup. Furthermore, could quickly figure out ‘Witten vs other players’ on 3rd down.
Let's compare 2014. He caught 22 balls on third down. He got a first down on 100% of those catches.

 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,583
What's the team conversion rate? Plus I have to figure most of Wittens conversions are on third and very short. Something that is usually "easier".
The team had a 42.2% conversion rate on 3rd down.

 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,583
Let's compare 2014. He caught 22 balls on third down. He got a first down on 100% of those catches.

I actually ran this report wrong. He caught 22 balls for first down on 3rd down plays in 26 receptions for a 84.6% rate.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,341
I actually ran this report wrong. He caught 22 balls for first down on 3rd down plays in 26 receptions for a 84.6% rate.
Ok, I was going to say he is really dragging us down. Should be interesting to see how well the young TEs can do in this. It's easy for me to say Witten gets a lot of the easy first downs when its third and 3 and we throw to Witten for 4 yards. But we need to see if one of the young TEs can be reliable in doing that. Beasley was super reliable at that but I think it became predictable and defense looked for only that.

Either way a 30% conversion rate is bad.
 

L.T. Fan

I'm Easy If You Are
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
21,688
Ok, I was going to say he is really dragging us down. Should be interesting to see how well the young TEs can do in this. It's easy for me to say Witten gets a lot of the easy first downs when its third and 3 and we throw to Witten for 4 yards. But we need to see if one of the young TEs can be reliable in doing that. Beasley was super reliable at that but I think it became predictable and defense looked for only that.

Either way a 30% conversion rate is bad.
It is bad but utilizing Witten the way they did his last couple of years directly contributed to this change. Previously Witten lined up at the LOS and his blocking scheme was always forward and it was immediate, then go to a route.

His assignment the last two years was primarily a drop back blocking scheme to slow down the pass Rush then run a pattern quickly. The problem is that he was was about 4 to 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage to begin a pattern. The time of release by the QB was essentially the same but Witten wasn’t far enough beyond the LOS to get a first down. He could only get 3 or 4 yards deep.

I yelled about this in every game and even posted a couple of times that he was being misused as a receiver.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,583
Ok, I was going to say he is really dragging us down. Should be interesting to see how well the young TEs can do in this. It's easy for me to say Witten gets a lot of the easy first downs when its third and 3 and we throw to Witten for 4 yards. But we need to see if one of the young TEs can be reliable in doing that. Beasley was super reliable at that but I think it became predictable and defense looked for only that.

Either way a 30% conversion rate is bad.
I ran the report from 2017 correctly. He had a 44% first down rate last year on 3rd down. I ran the 2014 report wrong.
 

data

Forbes #1
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
50,285
I ran the report from 2017 correctly. He had a 44% first down rate last year on 3rd down. I ran the 2014 report wrong.
86% —> 44% conversion rate is bad, especially compounding Dez Bryant’s failures last year. No wonder we had problems scoring.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,583
86% —> 44% conversion rate is bad, especially compounding Dez Bryant’s failures last year. No wonder we had problems scoring.
Yeah, that’s a huge drop in just 3 years.
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
37,350
I wonder what happened in between those three years? I can't seem to remember.

Also, Witten was above the team average even in 2017. I'm not sure how that could be construed as *Witten* holding the team back.
 

P_T

Baddest MoFo Around
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
2,056
Hey Iamtdg, is there any way of ranking/comparing the defenses we faced (especially their 3rd down efficiency) in '14 and '17? Dare I say that the NFC East itself was much improved.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,583
I wonder what happened in between those three years? I can't seem to remember.

Also, Witten was above the team average even in 2017. I'm not sure how that could be construed as *Witten* holding the team back.
He was at 50% in 2015 and 44.4% in 2016.

2015:



2016:

 
Top Bottom