Sturm's Decoding Linehan - A Collective Effort That Needs Improvement

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm, Special contributor

Sunday's performance on the offensive side of the ball was very poor from the Cowboys. We can focus on which part of the offense was poorer than another part of it, but it probably helps to start at the general overview. If this team wishes to win games of great significance that will be played next month at very high levels, than it is vital that they take the offensive showings in Minnesota and New York and quickly flush them down the toilet. Not good enough on either occasion, and the fact that they were able to squeeze a 1-1 record out of the stretch is a testament to the defense and special teams efforts to pull something good out of a bad stretch.

We know this. We just are having a hard time identifying why it all is happening right now.

The easiest explanation is that winning football gets progressively more difficult against desperate teams on the road as the weather turns. It happens to every team, every season. That is why the successful teams minimize the number of times they have to enter hostile environments by winning high seeds in the playoffs which allow you to stay at home.

That is good news, by the way, as this team is still on the path to the #1 seed - meaning, if they win their home games they will insure that there will be no more road tests of importance between here and an eventual Super Bowl.

But, when we drill down a bit, we can see explanations that need to be identified and fixed. Let's begin:


  • The Quarterback play was as poor as we have seen this season. Dak Prescott may have only "looked like a rookie", but he did play the type of game that will get a team sent home quickly in the playoffs if he repeats it. He was unsure of himself, uncommitted to his throws, and unwilling to use his "dual threat" component by making the Giants chase him down the field. This is something that really bailed out his performance in Minnesota, and if he (or the coaches) think he can throw his way out of problems without using his feet, they are probably making a poor choice.

  • The Offensive Line was not good enough on many occasions. This includes pass protection, but more importantly, it describes a running game that demonstrated very poor work after halftime. As the game went along, the OL (including tight ends) could have grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck by taking over with a few successful runs in a row, but they had their hands full with a New York front that won as much as they lost. The Cowboys don't look across the line after three hours and concede defeat, but the tape reveals that the Giants were winning in the late rounds on my scorecard.

  • The Wide Receivers as a group did not uncover in situations that required it. The Giants have appropriate personnel to stay on top of Dez Bryant, in particular, and Janoris Jenkins won the day. There was not much to look at downfield as Dak Prescott was trying to keep a play alive. Again, as the game went along, it was pretty clear that the offense had rare opportunities to capitalize on New York shortcomings.

  • The Coaching Staff fell into a predictable rut of conservative play-calling that served to allow the Giants to sit on each and every tendency. There was no help given in a situation where the slightest change-up might have been welcomed. Instead, they kept ramming their heads against a brick wall.

Other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?

We know each component of the above list has done quite well over a 13-game portrait. The coaches have had a great season, the offensive line has been phenomenal, Dez Bryant is still a guy you want in most matchups, and Dak Prescott is still having an absurdly great season. But, anytime you put a 2-24 stretch together on 3rd down, you see that there is plenty to fret about going into Tampa Bay. Sugarcoating reality is no way to win in the playoffs. It must be looked at head-on. So, here we go:

WEEKLY DATA



So, Minnesota gave us season lows in points, yards, 3rd Down conversions, and giveaways and then the New York game went even lower in each category. Additionally, this was the lowest game in terms of completion percentage and yards per play.

And to look at the game as a whole would miss the point about just how bad the 2nd half was. To borrow a paragraph from this week's Morning After, here is that:

The second half was an offensive disaster. There is simply no other way to describe eight different possessions that resulted in just three first downs, one play in Giants territory, and zero points. It was absolutely the worst thing we have seen all year from this offense that has been among the best in the league all season. They actually crossed midfield for one play, then committed a holding penalty, and to try to get it all back, Dak Prescott made one of his rare poor decisions as he threw a prayer into coverage that was picked off on a deep ball on third and 15.

In fact, here we will compare the 1st to 2nd half on those very important 1st and 2nd downs:



Not good. You lose on 1st down, every little element begins to suffer. You lose on 1st and 2nd down, and now you are up a creek without a paddle. And lest we put everything on the rookie QB right now, let's also recognize that he has nothing to do with the following reality:



You can see there that the Cowboys broke off some very nice runs on Sunday night. But, a few qualifiers must be included in looking at even those: There were 4 runs between 10 and 15 yards on Sunday (none longer). Of those, 3 were early in the game and only one was from a run-look in 22 personnel. Everything else was from the more finesse packages with 11 personnel and shotgun-11, which suggest that when both teams decided to bring in the big boys and see who was boss, New York had no issues.

DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART



You can see that there are some really disconcerting signs here. This looks like a rookie QB and a nervous coaching staff that wish to keep the ball out of danger, so they play it safe and then the defense starts to sit on your tendencies and then the holes get smaller and on and on and on.

This looked like the 2015 Cowboys. And that resulted in fans understandably looking for the panic button and trying to fix it by getting Tony Romo back in their to save this thing like he had been asked to do so much last year (healthy or not). I am not going that far, but they must figure this out very quickly or this dream run might vanish.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS



This tells the stories of how limited the Cowboys were to find success. When you look at each grouping and the yards per attempt of each group, you see nothing was productive. But, in particular, when the Cowboys tried to run from "under center" which is the life-blood of any running offense that loves to ground and pound, you see that the Giants were up to the task. Just look at the run column and subtract the 8 carries for 48 yards from Shotgun and you see the reality. 17 running plays for a measly 59 yards. When you are getting just 3 yards a carry, you cannot do what people wanted to do - just keep pounding Zeke. Because 1st down becomes 2nd and 8. That becomes 3rd and 5 or more. And that brings big blitzes and big moments where you ask a ton of your QB.

Then, he gets rattled and you cannot stop the bleeding. It is all connected. It is not one particular spot. Give the Giants credit. They got to Dak AND Dez. They got to Tyron, Frederick, and Free, too.

They beat Witten and corralled Zeke. The Giants defense won the day. And it isn't about one guy or one position.

Let's look at this brutal 2nd half by examining a large helping of bad film.



1st play of the 3rd Quarter, Run out of 11 Personnel and run a zone play to the right. Problem is that there is nothing on the front of this run and the cutback is being closed off with a dive-bomb safety and Olivier Vernon crashing down through Jason Witten. The Running back is looking at Doug Free and the moment 78 gets outside him, he has to look inside. But, there he sees 98 in the gap. So, now he looks backside, and Witten is getting pushed into him. They got 3 yards here and this is what Zeke had available all night. The Giants were winning the line of scrimmage. This is actually one of the better runs.



Giants in 2-deep, man under and this is 2nd and 7 on the very next play. This is the worst ball Dak has thrown all season as he has Dez open on a rope throw - that back shoulder fade throw would work here. But, Janoris is peeling off to get on a throw to Witten. Prescott has Zeke in the flat, but when he sees Janoris move off Dez, he is unsure of himself (which suggests he was on 82).

Either way, he doesn't throw into trouble and he doesn't try the Dez throw. Instead, it was a throw that lacked conviction and looked like a wounded duck that fell to the turf with no real intent. I would have liked to see a confident throw to Dez or just take the Zeke yardage underneath. Instead, we start the 2nd half with a very disconcerting throw.



This start the next drive. This is terrible. The Cowboys one pass play to start a drive (tendencies) in the 2nd half that wasn't in the 2-minute offense is the same rollout play they have run 1,000 times this year. Every opponent has spent hours on this concept, because they know the Cowboys are going to go to it. As you can see, the Giants are sitting on Dez (crashing free safety) and Witten (triangle of trouble all around him). Prescott also can't run here as they are on that. His only hope is the sideline for Gavin Escobar which I think must be the throw. Once Escobar crosses the face of his defender to the sideline, you have to give him a chance. Instead, Prescott throws a dangerous pass that will either get picked or get Witten killed. Either way, it does not give anyone confidence that he is able to carry out the tasks they need. And that is why it appears they go back to a bunch of 1st down runs.



Next drive, 1st play. 13 personnel. Run right behind the strength and leave 54-Vernon untouched on the backside. Can Zeke get to the corner before Vernon? No. Meanwhile, on the frontside, the Giants are jamming things up and diving a wide safety in there to meet at the ball carrier. 98-Harrison is all over Frederick inside. This happened quite a bit. If you don't back them off with play-action with this grouping, it is going to be a demolition derby at the point of attack. 0 gain. 2nd and 10.



Still 3rd Quarter. Another 1st down. Another run. S11 personnel, Run wide right, leave Vernon on the backside untouched (as is the design of the play) and he ends the play again. Partly because 82-Witten loses on his block and this thing is not going anywhere. Gain of 2. Frederick loses inside to 95 and Zeke is wondering where he is supposed to go with this. There are too many Giants.

Why? Because they know you have about 2 ideas on 1st down. They are not worried about any ambush over the top here at all. They are also not worried about Dak keeping on this play. He needs to fix that and keep them honest. He must.



So, now, in the most obvious place ever, 3rd and 15, is where the Cowboys decide to go vertical. You know, in exactly the situation where the Giants are expecting it. Here, Dak decides to give Dez a chance, but this is not the right read. There is nothing there and Dez knows it. By the way, on 3rd and 15, there will not be much there in the middle of the field with Dez Bryant. The entire game plan of the opposition is built around it. Honestly, if ever there was a time to run a draw on 3rd and 15, this was likely it. Take your punt. Which, I guess they did here. But, this series ended when they took a holding penalty 2 plays earlier.



Now, down 10-7, this is the first play of the next drive. Here is the most successful drive starter of the 2nd half. Behold, a 4-yard gain! 13-personnel and just nowhere to go. Witten on 78-Okwara is not happening and the Giants have the whole defense in the box. But, the Cowboys are now working with a playbook of about 3 plays, it appears. Now, to the 4th Quarter.



First play of the 4th Quarter. 3rd and 5 (reasonable) and the Cowboys will run Dez on a Dig across the line of scrimmage. I do not love this because this is the route that everyone knows is coming, but I guess they are scared of the slant because of the interception in the 1st half when Dez fell down. Here, Dez is open, but Dak is late on the ball. I assume he is late because he sees 57-Robinson peel off his blitz and drop into the passing lane (as if they know what is coming) and this makes Dak adjust his throw to be safe. I think he has to trust it, but he doesn't and he throws it in a bad spot where Dez can't do much with it because it allows his defender to contest. You have to make this throw.



Next drive, 1st play. 11 Personnel. Free has a hard time here, but still 4 yards. This has a chance to move the chains, which they did on the next play with a pass to Williams. Is this the drive?



No. Damon Harrison destroys Frederick for a TFL. This is proof that great players have bad plays. You won't see this much, but Harrison is legit and this play was where the offense was on Sunday.

So, 2nd and 11. No problem, right?



This is another chance to get Jenkins off Dez with a back shoulder fade. Jenkins has to sit on the Go, so if this is timed, it should be a great chance. I have seen these guys run this play to perfection at times this year - including on the very first preseason game in Los Angeles. The back shoulder fade should be a great weapon. But, here, either Dez or Dak are not on the same page (which we have now said a few times). Usually, we say that the WR must get on the same page, but in fairness, Dak seems out of sorts all night, too. I really don't know why this looks so poor.

Here is a good one:



See? Easy as can be. Same two guys.



Next drive. 1st play. Cowboys are determined to make "13" work, so they sit Escobar and now have 73-Looney as a TE and 41-Smith as another, even though both clearly are not TEs. Anyway, this play looks blocked pretty well, but here is 54-Vernon again. This time, he bottles up Zeke by getting outside Tyron and then closing him down until help arrives. This Vernon is a real player as Tyron will attest based on the Miami game last year and these two games this season. Elliott might have had some options inside, but you can understand he is a bit rattled now, as well.



2nd and 8. What is going on here? Well, the Dig to Dez is here, but this time, Doug Free is beat in pass protection and your QB is getting rag-dolled as he is trying to make the throw. I swear, if it wasn't one thing, it was something else.



Next drive. We are officially in 2-minute offense here. This was a near pick, but I wanted to show you this as an example of "where would you like your QB to go with the ball here?" There is nothing close to open that I can see. Oh, and your pass protection is breaking down.



3rd and 6. Game on the line. Need something from the QB when you know the Giants are blitzing everyone. Here it is. He puts the slant right on the game-breaker. So what happens? He fumbles it.
Unbelievable.



4th and 10. Last play of the game. Dak is in his own end zone and has to move the chains. Dez needs to keep running for me, because if he stops, Janoris is going to spike this ball into the turf. Not a real convicted route and not a real solid throw at the shoe-tops. Game over. Mercifully.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

I definitely over-did the breakdowns this week, but everyone wants answers and someone to get mad at. I would submit to you that I am not sure who on the offense would get a passing grade. They were dominated in the 2nd half. I think the QB could have been better, but I also think there are 10 others that join him.

Give the Giants credit. That was a great performance from them. For the Cowboys, they need to put this behind them quickly. Dak needs to demonstrate that he can respond to adversity or this job won't be for him. The offensive line needs to get back to winning on their blocks and the coaches need to go back to being part of the solution rather than getting scared and predictable.

This can all happen, but while this weekly feature has been nothing but praise all season, this week shows that there is an awful lot of awful right now. It needs to be fixed. Fast.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I think the repeated message of this was, "why the F are we so intent on shoving the 13 personnel down the defenses throat when we suck at it. We are best out of the 11, and instead we insist on sticking with this shit.
 

1bigfan13

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The Quarterback play was as poor as we have seen this season. Dak Prescott may have only "looked like a rookie", but he did play the type of game that will get a team sent home quickly in the playoffs if he repeats it. He was unsure of himself, uncommitted to his throws, and unwilling to use his "dual threat" component by making the Giants chase him down the field. This is something that really bailed out his performance in Minnesota, and if he (or the coaches) think he can throw his way out of problems without using his feet, they are probably making a poor choice.
I harp on this point every week. It's frustrating as hell watching Dak sit in the pocket refusing to run when 5 - 15 yards of free field position is staring him in the face. Instead he'd rather stand tall in the pocket, taking unnecessary sacks.

If the receivers aren't open and the pocket is breaking down.....Run. The. Damn. Ball.

Why is that so hard to do?
 

Cotton

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I harp on this point every week. It's frustrating as hell watching Dak sit in the pocket refusing to run when 5 - 15 yards of free field position is staring him in the face. Instead he'd rather stand tall in the pocket, taking unnecessary sacks.

If the receivers aren't open and the pocket is breaking down.....Run. The. Damn. Ball.

Why is that so hard to do?
I think he is trying to identify as a pass first QB, but you can still be pass first and also utilize other weapons at your disposal if the passes aren't there.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I harp on this point every week. It's frustrating as hell watching Dak sit in the pocket refusing to run when 5 - 15 yards of free field position is staring him in the face. Instead he'd rather stand tall in the pocket, taking unnecessary sacks.

If the receivers aren't open and the pocket is breaking down.....Run. The. Damn. Ball.

Why is that so hard to do?
Yeah and seeing those clips of our offense it looks like far too often the receivers weren't open. Which means he needs to either get rid of the ball or tuck it and run for some yards. He didn't do either of those two things against the Giants and it cost him. Our play calling also sucked. I blame Dez for playing like shit against Jenkins but the coaches didn't help Dez out either. You make Jenkins pay with double moves and some deep throws. The guy is and always has been a risk taking corner. But instead we played into Jenkins game.
 

L.T. Fan

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I harp on this point every week. It's frustrating as hell watching Dak sit in the pocket refusing to run when 5 - 15 yards of free field position is staring him in the face. Instead he'd rather stand tall in the pocket, taking unnecessary sacks.

If the receivers aren't open and the pocket is breaking down.....Run. The. Damn. Ball.

Why is that so hard to do?
It isn't hard to do but if you abandon that part of the game the opponent will stack the box. Both attacks have to be effective. The team did abandon the run in the second half for the most part but I think the coaches were afraid that Zeke was being overworked. I don't know why Morris wasn't utilized. It was just a mucked up coaching debacle.
 

Jiggyfly

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Everybody bitching about Escobar but look who actually gets a block and look who is pulling his dam shirt down again.

On most of these videos Witten is getting his ass handed to him.

But looking at these I actually am not as worried as I was after the game, I think this will be a great learning experience and I do not think we face anybody else who can match up on the D-line like the Giants do.

But I will say the going conservative thing was not great to hear.
 

1bigfan13

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I think he is trying to identify as a pass first QB, but you can still be pass first and also utilize other weapons at your disposal if the passes aren't there.
I think there is a lot of truth to that. I think most black QBs think they have to break the "running QB" stigma that comes with being black and playing the position.

But as I pointed out the other day, there have been plenty of very successful white QBs who have used their mobility to their advantage. So I don't understand why some black QBs feel the need to shy away from that aspect of their game.
 

1bigfan13

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It isn't hard to do but if you abandon that part of the game the opponent will stack the box. Both attacks have to be effective. The team did abandon the run in the second half for the most part but I think the coaches were afraid that Zeke was being overworked. I don't know why Morris wasn't utilized. It was just a mucked up coaching debacle.
I'm talking about Dak running the ball not the running backs.

There were a few times the other day where he could have ran to either pick up the 1st down or put us in shorter 3rd down situations, but instead he stubbornly hung in the pocket taking unnecessary sacks and rushed throws.
 

Cotton

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I think there is a lot of truth to that. I think most black QBs think they have to break the "running QB" stigma that comes with being black and playing the position.

But as I pointed out the other day, there have been plenty of very successful white QBs who have used their mobility to their advantage. So I don't understand why some black QBs feel the need to shy away from that aspect of their game.
Yep. Steve Young being one of them. I can understand trying to get away from the stigma, but it's dumb to not utilize the tools you have when it is necessary.

Hell, at least he has to work on pocket awareness necessary to get out of the pocket. I really think he was shaken in this game because of the cold. This game on Sunday will tell us a lot.
 

GShock

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Harrison, Vernon, and Jenkins were all very high-priced FA pick-ups for them.

But they have worked.
 

ravidubey

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No one better knows when to run than Dak, but it appeared the environment and pressure took him out of his normal thinking. He's entitled to that learning process.

I want to know why the coaches went conservative. Did they lack confidence in their receivers, the protection, or their rookie QB? All three?

This is where they used to really lean on Romo.
 
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