Pass rates on first down

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
We converted a 1st down on 72.5% of the time on 3rd and 4 yards or less. First in the league. That is incredible.

 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
This is 3rd and 3 or less to go. Surprisingly, we are around middle of the pack. We throw about half the time on those scenarios.
I'm not trying to be a douche, but that's not that surprising to me.

I don't think we are particularly pass happy on these downs. I think situationally there are some instances that stick out as maybe bad calls, but I've never, ever believed the popular Texas Ace refrain that we do it way more than other teams, or "too much" at all.
 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
It actually looks like we are really successful in that situation if I'm reading it right.
I think we are.

What killed us this past year was we were in third and LONGER than 3, way more often than the year before.

I don't have those stats in front of me but I'd be shocked if that wasn't the case. Even when Zeke was around we did not have nearly the same success running on early downs.

Which, guess why not? Maybe because we ran on first down way more than any other team in football and teams figured that tendency out.

We are now the opposite of a Garrett pass happy team. We run way, way too much, actually.
 

P_T

Baddest MoFo Around
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
2,056
So, if we're so successful, isn't this issue moot?

What "red zone" efficiency? IIRC, we did struggle with that last year.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,341
I think we are.

What killed us this past year was we were in third and LONGER than 3, way more often than the year before.

I don't have those stats in front of me but I'd be shocked if that wasn't the case. Even when Zeke was around we did not have nearly the same success running on early downs.

Which, guess why not? Maybe because we ran on first down way more than any other team in football and teams figured that tendency out.

We are now the opposite of a Garrett pass happy team. We run way, way too much, actually.
I figured we were successful compared to most but I don't think I expected it to look that good.
 

fortsbest

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
3,733
My biggest complain with Garrett and Linnehan is that 8 times out of 10 when they lined up even I and my untrained eye knew what was coming. These two are supposed to be offensive minds and sadly I only found them to be offiensive in their limited imagination. People may have not liked Dez being hte one bitching about it, but hel there are defensive players stating exactly that fact. And this BS of we run what we scheme and execution will win out isn't like back in the triplets are when they were just that much better than everyone else and Garrett needs to get that crap out of his head. Cuz his team isn't that. They need to be creative in scheming and to my assessment they don't have it in them. That's why they will never get to a SB with Garrett and Linnehan here. period.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
I think we are.

What killed us this past year was we were in third and LONGER than 3, way more often than the year before.

I don't have those stats in front of me but I'd be shocked if that wasn't the case. Even when Zeke was around we did not have nearly the same success running on early downs.

Which, guess why not? Maybe because we ran on first down way more than any other team in football and teams figured that tendency out.

We are now the opposite of a Garrett pass happy team. We run way, way too much, actually.
We were in 3rd and 4 or longer 87.7% of the time.

 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
My biggest complain with Garrett and Linnehan is that 8 times out of 10 when they lined up even I and my untrained eye knew what was coming. These two are supposed to be offensive minds and sadly I only found them to be offiensive in their limited imagination. People may have not liked Dez being hte one bitching about it, but hel there are defensive players stating exactly that fact. And this BS of we run what we scheme and execution will win out isn't like back in the triplets are when they were just that much better than everyone else and Garrett needs to get that crap out of his head. Cuz his team isn't that. They need to be creative in scheming and to my assessment they don't have it in them. That's why they will never get to a SB with Garrett and Linnehan here. period.
I think everyone can agree we are too predictable, but let's not get carried away: You did not know 8 out of 10 times what was coming. It wasn't THAT predictable.

Let's stick with, "too predictable" and "predictable enough that defenses figured out tendencies more than was good for us."
 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
We were in 3rd and 4 or longer 87.7% of the time.

I bet 2016 looked a lot different than that.

Edit: Yep, I just found it. Not sure how to post the exact capture but in 2016, it was

0-3: 53 (28%)
4-6: 49 (26%)
7-9: 39 (20%)
10+: 49 (26%)

What it shows is that we had 7 or longer 48% of the time in 2017, versus 46% of the time in 2016, so that was similar.

The difference is the whopping 28% of 3rd&0-3 / 26% of 3rd&4-6, in 2016............ versus in 2017 that number falling to only 13% of 3rd&0-3 / 38% 3rd&4-6.

Massive difference. That explains drives stalling out more frequently right there.
 
Last edited:

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
So, if we're so successful, isn't this issue moot?

What "red zone" efficiency? IIRC, we did struggle with that last year.
We had a 62.3% TD red zone efficiency. That compares to the league avg of 55.9%. We were 5th in the league.

 

fortsbest

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
3,733
I think everyone can agree we are too predictable, but let's not get carried away: You did not know 8 out of 10 times what was coming. It wasn't THAT predictable.

Let's stick with, "too predictable" and "predictable enough that defenses figured out tendencies more than was good for us."
Hey, allow me slight exaggeration on occassion, but it isn't to far off. The times I felt surprise when a play was run was far less than the times I said, knew that was coming.
 

p1_

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 10, 2013
Messages
26,392
I knew without looking that we would be at the bottom of that list.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,341
Hey, allow me slight exaggeration on occassion, but it isn't to far off. The times I felt surprise when a play was run was far less than the times I said, knew that was coming.
8 out of 10 times could you call if it was a run or pass? I think that may actually not be that far off. Now maybe not the exact play. I mean you might not know if it is a counter or a sweep, a quick out or a crossing pattern but telling run or pass was already given away often times by the formation before we ever did anything.
 
Top Bottom