Pass rates on first down

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
Check this out. This perfectly illustrates just how predictable our offense was last year. I wish I could hang this shit in Garrett's office as a daily reminder.

 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.

We run the ball plenty. Complaining about "WHY DIDN'T WE RUN IT THERE" is now just second guessing with the benefit of hindsight, almost exclusively.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.

We run the ball plenty. Complaining about "WHY DIDN'T WE RUN IT THERE" is now just second guessing with the benefit of hindsight, almost exclusively.
How many times has the play sequence gone: run for 4, run for 4, pass with 2 yards to go? It's infuriating and extremely predictable? They will have to fix that shit or we are in for another frustrating year.
 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
How many times has the play sequence gone: run for 4, run for 4, pass with 2 yards to go? It's infuriating and extremely predictable? They will have to fix that shit or we are in for another frustrating year.
I agree. And last year it trended down to "Run for 3" or "Run for 2" a little more than we'd like as well.

Fact is, we need to be more pass happy, period.

Of course, that's gonna mean throwing on some "obvious" run downs here or there. You can't complain when we don't run on a third and 2 then, occasionally. There has to be some leeway for calls that go against obvious situations. And then when they motion Zeke out wide and it's empty backfield before the snap, that's within the playcaller's prerogative.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,341
At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.
Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute. It's sort of a feel thing. And I get why they love running on first down with Zeke all the time. You almost always get 3 or 4 yards on first down. Especially in 2016 which is what sets up the nice second and third downs of 6 or shorter which makes it easier on Dak. I'd be curious to see our run rates on third down because I kind of feel like we lean pass way too often on third down when it's third and less than 4.

I also think teams study these tendencies. So while it worked great in 2016 teams realize how heavily we lean towards run on first down and they adjust. Which is why in 2017 it didn't work nearly as well. We need to get back to more of a balanced attack on every down. Heck on first down just do some easy 5 or 6 yard passing stuff. You don't even have to take shots down field. Just get the ball into some of your great athletes hands and let them make a play. That short pass might turn into a big play.
 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute.
That's literally about 70% of the problems I have with the Garrett complaints, and why I always seem like I'm sticking up for him. Most of my objections are from that.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute. It's sort of a feel thing. And I get why they love running on first down with Zeke all the time. You almost always get 3 or 4 yards on first down. Especially in 2016 which is what sets up the nice second and third downs of 6 or shorter which makes it easier on Dak. I'd be curious to see our run rates on third down because I kind of feel like we lean pass way too often on third down when it's third and less than 4.

I also think teams study these tendencies. So while it worked great in 2016 teams realize how heavily we lean towards run on first down and they adjust. Which is why in 2017 it didn't work nearly as well. We need to get back to more of a balanced attack on every down. Heck on first down just do some easy 5 or 6 yard passing stuff. You don't even have to take shots down field. Just get the ball into some of your great athletes hands and let them make a play. That short pass might turn into a big play.
Give me a few and I think I can get you this stat. Pro Football Reference's website is having issues right now.
 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
I'd be curious to know the entire's league's pass rate on third and four or less, compared to ours.
 

Smitty

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,471
To be fair, third and four is really pretty uniformly a passing down.

Can you look at third and three or less for us and the league?
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
To be fair, third and four is really pretty uniformly a passing down.

Can you look at third and three or less for us and the league?
Yeah, hold on a sec. I have been selecting yards gained instead of yards to go. Let me fix it and this thread. :lol
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
To be fair, third and four is really pretty uniformly a passing down.

Can you look at third and three or less for us and the league?
This is 3rd and 3 or less to go. Surprisingly, we are around middle of the pack. We throw about half the time on those scenarios.

 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
We passed the ball on 3rd and 2 or less 36.1% of the time compared to 45.9% for the league. It sure seems like we pass more than that on 3rd and short. Maybe it's because the goalline efforts where we throw the ball 2-3 times straight really stand out.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,341
This is 3rd and 3 or less to go. Surprisingly, we are around middle of the pack. We throw about half the time on those scenarios.

It actually looks like we are really successful in that situation if I'm reading it right.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
On 3rd downs regardless of yards to go we are right about league average for passing with 78.4%.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,341
We passed the ball on 3rd and 2 or less 36.1% of the time compared to 45.9% for the league. It sure seems like we pass more than that on 3rd and short. Maybe it's because the goalline efforts where we throw the ball 2-3 times straight really stand out.
Yeah it just tells you how pass happy the rest of the NFL has become.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
It actually looks like we are really successful in that situation if I'm reading it right.
I have just now discovered the play index with PFR. This is really cool. Any other stats you guys want? This is fun. :lol
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
Yeah it just tells you how pass happy the rest of the NFL has become.
Looks at the Giants. They throw the ball 64.4% of the time on 3rd and 3 or less. Holy hell.
 

P_T

Baddest MoFo Around
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
2,056
If I'm reading that correctly, we have the second highest successful conversion rate at 71%.

What is the "1st%" stat?
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,582
If I'm reading that correctly, we have the second highest successful conversion rate at 71%.

What is the "1st%" stat?
It means the 1st down success rate on 3rd and 3 or less.
 
Top Bottom