Sturm: How badly do the Cowboys need a top linebacker in this draft?

Cotton

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How badly do the Cowboys need a top linebacker in this draft?





By Bob Sturm Apr 9, 2018

The Cowboys made a major decision in the 2016 NFL Draft when they selected Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith with pick #34 despite his health status, which was cast into question due to a knee that was nearly totaled just four months prior.
This injury included tears of the ACL and LCL as well as significant nerve damage that would make fully predicting the eventual state of recovery impossible. It was a calculated risk that is consistent with other risks the Cowboys have taken in previous drafts, but this one seemed particularly significant given the requirement that he would likely miss all of his rookie season and the “drop-foot” condition he would have to overcome. Some thought he would never fully recover enough to play again. Others thought if he did recover enough to play for the Cowboys, it would be in a wildly-reduced state.

But, the Cowboys did what the Cowboys normally do – they sold hard in all public interviews that everything is going to be alright:

I WOULD BE VERY SHOCKED AND SURPRISED IF HE'S NOT A KEY PART OF OUR DEFENSE IN 2017. – JERRY JONES, DEC 2016


and:
I THINK JAYLON IS GOING TO BE AROUND HERE FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS, AND WE DON’T WANT TO DO ANYTHING THAT’S NOT TAKING CARE OF JAYLON. – STEPHEN JONES, AUGUST 8TH


and:
HE'S GONNA, I THINK, BE ONE OF THE GREAT DALLAS COWBOYS TO COME THROUGH THE DOORS HERE. [I'M] EXPECTING HIM TO HAVE A 10-YEAR CAREER HERE. – STEPHEN JONES, AUGUST 22ND


But it wasn't just words. The Cowboys left their last training camp with so little cover at LB that with Anthony Hitchens out for the first month, Jaylon was asked to be a full-time player almost immediately. They did not bring him along slowly. They did not allow him to join the team midseason with a safe ramp-up. The team put him on the field in nearly every situation and scenario against the Giants, Broncos, Cardinals, and Rams.

To be fair, they didn't have a whole lot of options. Justin Durant was hired off his couch when Hitchens went down. Damien Wilson has a very strict and specific role on this team at SAM LB. Kyle Wilber has a role, too – and it involves seldom playing on the defense for any reason. He is strictly a special teams player who has LB listed on the roster because they have to list something. Of course, none of that was a real surprise, save the Hitchens injury. If the Cowboys planned to use Jaylon Smith sparingly until he showed he could handle the load they gave him, that all came tumbling down when Hitchens was hurt on August 26th against Oakland in the preseason. At the time, the belief was it would be Hitchens' ACL and he would be gone for the year. The Cowboys would have been up a creek without a paddle. Instead, the ailment was a tibial plateau fracture and Hitchens was expected to miss 8-10 weeks. He was rushed back before 6 weeks had passed.

Why was he rushed back? Because the Cowboys were sinking fast. And they were losing games partially because Jaylon Smith was being attacked mercilessly. Teams gradually figured out that he had trouble moving and the more tape that showed up, the more teams tried to scheme situations to make him run. Then, Sean Lee pulled up to injury in the Arizona game, leaving Dallas to play without Hitchens OR Lee.

This was a problem in the next game against the Rams. There was nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. Sean McVay (who else) was the one who decided that if the Cowboys are going to play him in every situation – mostly because they had no choice – McVay would scheme his offense to make them pay.

On plays between the numbers, 54-Jaylon Smith looked fine.

Smith's recovery has allowed him to play between the tackles and get in on many tackles.


But, the further the plays would bounce outside the numbers, the tougher it was for him to cover the ground.


The further the game went along, the more you got the impression the Rams were anxious to expose a defense that did not have Sean Lee or Anthony Hitchens available. The Cowboys' only true linebacker on this day was one trying to come back from a massive injury. He was also playing in his fourth NFL game.

Then they saw him try to cover. Changing directions was just not something he could do against NFL slot athletes like Cooper Kupp.


You may remember this Touchdown to Todd Gurley. That isn't Jaylon Smith's guy, it is 57-Damien Wilson's. But Smith's receiver is open, too. Obviously, the Cowboys are not only running backup LBs at all the key spots, but they are also trying to chase elite athletes in space. The personnel and the scheme seemed doomed in this game against the Rams.


Once the Rams figured out Jaylon was schemed up against Gurley, they decided to attack it until it stopped. The Cowboys stopped just in time because the Rams went back to it, but Dallas had switched to a more conservative zone.

As you can see, Xavier Woods ran with Gurley and no doubt saved a big play. Jaylon Smith would not have been able to.

This is where defensive play-calling is crucial. If coaches don't spot the opposition's plan in a hurry, it can ruin a team's day.

In this case, the damage was already done. The Rams scored on nine of their eleven drives. This is before we knew the Rams were good, so it left the Cowboys shocked about how badly their linebackers let them down. Injuries happen, but this seems like a clear case where a lack of depth came home to roost. Add this to the Chaz Green game and you wonder if not being prepared for injuries destroyed any chance of winning these two games in the same season. That is a front-office issue more than a coaching one, to me. But, of course, the coaches could help by making sure they use the best options in the best ways possible.

After that day, Jaylon Smith's workload was cut back considerably. He went from an average of 56 snaps per game in the first quarter of the season to 25 for the next quarter.

Then Sean Lee got hurt again. And, the Cowboys had to put Jaylon Smith or Justin Durant back in there for the next month. They tried Jaylon first because Durant was inactive in Atlanta when Lee got hurt again.

Things did not get better. The game was not slowing down for Jaylon and even simple run fits were not simple.


His legs did not seem to have much juice. His explosiveness was not present. It was time to get worried.


Perhaps filling in for Sean Lee makes a player look even worse, but the verdict was harsh. Jaylon Smith was not very good.


When the Falcons made Smith change directions, his mobility was just not the same as when he was attacking in a straight line.

This made a few things clear. The Cowboys had a massive issue at linebacker. It was highlighted when players got hurt – Lee and Hitchens – and then made catastrophic when there was no quality behind those players.

If you spend the 34th pick on one of the best college linebackers in recent memory, he would generally provide -at the very least – the depth and injury cover your team needs. But they took him instead of fellow linebackers Myles Jack and Reggie Ragland. We can discuss the merits of those players (Jack had his own degenerative condition, Ragland has already been traded and is seen as a 2-down LB), but the gamble on Jaylon Smith required caution and hope – two things not coming through for Dallas at the moment.

As soon as they could, the Cowboys reined Smith's snaps back down considerably. Lee returned for games in December and here is a look at the defensive snap-count by week for the six LBs on the roster:

50-Lee54-Smith59-Hitchens57-Wilson52-Durant51-Wilber
1-NYG5735DNP1720
2-DEN7768DNP2313
3-ARZ7554DNP15320
4-LARDNP69DNP27482
5-GBDNP3350112713
6-SF49324118DNP7
7-WSH57172611DNP1
8-KC54172819DNP0
9-ATL8506036DNP4
10-PHIDNP364927258
11-LACDNP386634230
12-WSHDNP445716DNP0
13-NYG66305921DNP0
14-OAK66203212DNP1
15-SEA57144023DNP0
16-PHI56183611DNP0
Total Snaps62257554432115839



Lee played a really strong season, but 10 games are not enough for a passing grade. Hitchens recovered remarkably well and saved the defense this year. You could argue others made more plays, but you might also argue nobody was more valuable to this defense than Anthony Hitchens. I shudder to imagine what a disaster we would have observed had he been lost for the year in that Oakland preseason game.

Perhaps nothing is a great motivator for recovery quite like a contract season. Because of his performance in 2017, Hitchens was inked to a 5 year/$45 million deal ($25m guaranteed!) by Kansas City, where he will partner with Ragland on the inside of that linebacker group. Great news for a former fourth-round pick who took a massive leap in his career from years one to four. Hitchens is the dream of any organization for its mid-round picks. The only thing missing was an under-market value extension. Instead, he got to free agency and beat the projected extensions in August by miles.

I am sad to report that leaves the Cowboys with a major issue.

I have heard a narrative take life over the last few months. It is the idea that Jaylon Smith got considerably better as the season went along. Now, I may be suggesting a clarification of semantics more than anything here, but I think it is important for us to say a few things on behalf of the Jaylon enthusiasts that are all true.


  1. Jaylon Smith played in 16 games this season and that is no small achievement, considering what he had to do to make that happen.
  2. Jaylon Smith finished third on the team in tackles this season (behind Lee and Hitchens) and while tackles are a horrendous way to judge performance, it still counts for something.
  3. Jaylon Smith registered 9.5 splash plays; not bad for a rookie.


All of those three things are true. But I would not necessarily say he got better as the season went along; rather that the team got much better at playing him less and therefore keeping him out of situations where he would be routinely attacked and, unfortunately, roasted.

He still made some very nice plays. Let's look at some of Smith's finer moments this season:



Here, he caused a fumble by flying to the ball and making a play in Week 1.



In San Francisco, He highlighted his very fine ability to rush the passer through well-timed blitzes.



Against Washington, he almost picked off a pass on a rare positive coverage opportunity. Notice, he wasn't asked to move much. This play did not withstand review.



In Atlanta, he got into the backfield and was able to register a tackle for loss.



Against the Chargers, he moved laterally and really impressed in making this tackle on the edge.



To prove it wasn't a fluke, he went the other direction and did it again!



And finally, in Week 17, he blitzed again and really looked like he had some juice left in those legs.

You might notice that almost all of these nice plays by Jaylon are “one-direction plays”. He is not stopping and heading in the other direction. When he may maintain his path, he is starting to look solid.

These plays are all positives and should grant some optimism. But the issue isn't whether there are some places to use him. The issue, with Hitchens gone and Lee a year older, is whether he can be a full-time linebacker in 2018 without being routinely targeted by opposing offenses.

And for that, I wanted to show you some very disconcerting things about the final month of the season. Why the final month? Because this was the only time all year that the Cowboys went four straight weeks with everyone available. This is where they showed us their best linebacker group and what role everyone would play when available.

I went through all four games to get a feel for everyone's role. Allow me to show you my findings from the Giants, Raiders, Seahawks, and Eagles games in Weeks 14-17 as the Cowboys made their last-ditch playoff push that ended against Seattle.

Sean Lee: Lee played in nearly every situation imaginable as the WILL. He came out for a few short sequences when the team allowed Hitchens and Smith to play together, but those doses were very small. Lee plays in every situation and the Cowboys have a third down and long package which features Lee and the dime package behind him (Byron Jones plays the other LB spot). Lee is heavily-leveraged.

Anthony Hitchens: Hitchens was clearly the other full-time linebacker and played the MIKE. The Cowboys played him everywhere but third and long. They took him out on occasion to rotate Smith in the game, but never for long. They also played a 3-DL, 2-LB package on 3rd down when they wanted Hitchens to spy the QB if he was a run threat. Hitchens was a very important player.

Damien Wilson: Wilson took all of the SAM linebacker snaps. He played against 12 personnel or 13 personnel, and that was it. Basically, if there was a situation where the Cowboys played with 3 LBs at one time, Wilson would play as the strong-side LB. He never played another position and almost never saw the field other than 1st and 10, when teams like 12 personnel.

Jaylon Smith: In these four games, he played on a rotation. He usually played the third possession of the game or the first possession of the second quarter. He would play on first and second down. Then, he might play every other series (against the Giants) or every third series (Oakland, Seattle, Philadelphia). He played in every situation in those series, but that was often just 8-12 snaps per half. He was usually subbed in for Hitchens at MIKE and was noticeably less effective. Basically, the Cowboys had benched him but wanted to make sure he still played some.

Justin Durant and Kyle Wilber had no role whatsoever.

In January, there were plenty of rumblings that the Cowboys were trying to extend Hitchens' contract. They also let word escape that they wanted to try Jaylon Smith at SAM linebacker (no doubt to accommodate Hitchens) – since Hitchens was probably annoyed that he was sharing time with Smith even though he was clearly a better player.

The SAM almost never plays against 11 personnel, and 11 personnel takes the field on about 70% of snaps in the modern NFL. The idea that the Cowboys wanted to move Smith there is ominous, because regardless of what they say, they know he was not able to cover anyone in any sort of chase scheme in 2017. He may improve over the offseason, but Jaylon Smith cannot effectively change directions. Let me show you what I found in December:



Smith is on the hash mark and switches to chase in the flat in this play in Week 14. He can barely run.



Same game. He runs right well, but when he has to switch direction, his legs cannot recover. He is noticeably slower than everyone else on the screen.



In Oakland in Week 15. He has to switch directions and again looks slower than everyone else on the field.



In Philadelphia in Wk 17. He looks great going forward, but circling wide around he cannot switch back with any explosiveness and is well behind the play.

He just can't move at NFL linebacker speeds. Could this improve with another offseason? Sure. But I think the Cowboys wanted Hitchens to stick around because they are now concerned about Smith playing full-time. And what happens if Lee gets hurt? Joe Thomas can play some on third downs but he is nowhere close to a full-time linebacker, either.

And this is why I must prepare you for the Cowboys taking a linebacker very early in a few weeks. They know this tape better than anyone. They know with Jaylon Smith on the field they run a very predictable zone in which they don't ask a run-and-hit LB to run much. They know that Smith cannot play on passing downs. They know he can make plays, but almost all of them are made when he's running in one direction. If he has to change direction, the offense gains a healthy advantage.

I wish I had better news. But there is a reason why the NFL Combine tests linebackers on change of direction skills. This is what they are looking for with draft prospect Tremaine Edmunds:



At the moment, Jaylon Smith could not handle this drill very well. This basically means he will be a constant target for play-action. It's important to ignore the sunk costs in Smith's case. The objective now is protecting the franchise against losing games as a product of stubbornness.

I don't blame Jaylon Smith for any of this. He can't control this. By all accounts, he has done everything he can to get his body back and his mentality serves him well. He appears to be a fantastic human being and I still have hope that 2018 can be a big step forward.

But I think it is possible he will never be a full-time linebacker, in which case they must draft one within the first 100 picks. If that linebacker doesn't need to play because everything has worked out, great. Hopefully, they then have a successor for Sean Lee someday. But the Cowboys cannot afford to enter this season with Lee, Smith, and hope as their linebacking corps. Last year should have taught us that the biggest collision position on the defense will feature some injuries and that this roster is dangerously thin. Now, without Hitchens, the danger is even more pronounced.

The Cowboys must prepare accordingly.
 

Smitty

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Yeah, and this is why it would be hard to give up your second to move up for Derwin James. Even though he'd do wonders for this defense, we did not adequately address linebacker in free agency. We need early picks to try to find value at adding LB somewhere. You could give up a third and then hope to either find a LB in the second, or use your fourth and change to move back into the third to get a LB there. But a second is hard to replace.

I still have hope for Smith but you can't count on him or Lee at this point. You need insurance for at least one of them.

Vea would go a long way to helping our LBs too.
 

Simpleton

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It's hard to be definitive on Smith because we have no idea what type of learning/improvement curve he's on right now relative to his health. He definitely looked more explosive as the year went on and for all we know he will to continue to improve going into next season.

Myles Jack looked terrible as a rookie and barely played, yet this year he turns into a borderline Pro Bowler. I realize that Jack doesn't have the same type of question marks around him but there is something to be said for Smith basically not playing football for 18 months and coming off the injury he had.

Either way, we need a 3-down LB, I've been saying that since last year's draft honestly and there's no reason to change my tune now. Even regardless of Smith this defense needs to find cover for Lee because it's absolutely ridiculous how much the unit falls off without him on the field.
 

BipolarFuk

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He's garbage.

I'd test his change of direction in training camp and if it hasn't improved, cut him immediately.
 

bbgun

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He's garbage.

I'd test his change of direction in training camp and if it hasn't improved, cut him immediately.
:lol

Right. Jerry, the guy still waiting on Randy Gregory, is gonna cut Smith in camp and admit he made a mistake.
 

NoDak

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I wouldn’t take Jewell in the 2nd. If he’s not there for us later, so be it.
 

lostxn

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I wouldn’t take Jewell in the 2nd. If he’s not there for us later, so be it.
I feel like we need a player that can start fairly immediately. As much as I covet one of the top receivers, LBer would be the best choice early.

My dream draft would be a trade back in the 1st and up in the 2nd and nab Moore and Vander Esch. Probably a smarter pull would be Hernandez and Vander. The heart wants what the heart wants...
 

west723

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There is no doubt this teams biggest weakness is linebacker. Right now we have Lee, Smith, & Wilson? starting. Because of the way Lee plays, in that he is in on a lot of contact, he is going to get hurt and miss games. Smith is still unkown, he had good plays but we need to see more. The third starter is up in the air in my opinion. Plus no depth to speak of. We need to draft LB and probally two or three that can help this team. Would be OK with trading back in the first and probally still getting Vander or Moore.
 

Cotton

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There is no doubt this teams biggest weakness is linebacker. Right now we have Lee, Smith, & Wilson? starting. Because of the way Lee plays, in that he is in on a lot of contact, he is going to get hurt and miss games. Smith is still unkown, he had good plays but we need to see more. The third starter is up in the air in my opinion. Plus no depth to speak of. We need to draft LB and probally two or three that can help this team. Would be OK with trading back in the first and probally still getting Vander or Moore.
That’s why I was hoping we could hang on to Hitchens.
 

UncleMilti

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Smith is on the hash mark and switches to chase in the flat in this play in Week 14. He can barely run.[/QUOTE]


This is what I posted in another thread here. I'm sorry, I have to agree...as much as I want to pull for the guy, he simply looks gimpy to me at times...and it show when he has to run sideline to sideline or change direction.

The Cowboys are really setting themselves up for failure if they don't get some help at LB in this draft.
 
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