Hill: Jerry Jones still capable of making splash, says draft is setting up for Cowboys

So now ever trading up is "pinning your entire draft on one player?"

Just ridiculousness.

I already said I wouldn't give up a second. If I could give up a third, though, you are giving a player who has a maybe 50% chance of being a decent starter.

We have ten picks, that's not giving up your whole draft like you're trading up for Ricky Williams or something.

mschmidt64 said:

So now ever trading up is "pinning your entire draft on one player?"

Just ridiculousness.

I already said I wouldn't give up a second. If I could give up a third, though, you are giving a player who has a maybe 50% chance of being a decent starter.

We have ten picks, that's not giving up your whole draft like you're trading up for Ricky Williams or something.

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The problem is, you are going to have to move up too far, and it will cost you more than just a 3rd.

mschmidt64 said:

So now ever trading up is "pinning your entire draft on one player?"

Just ridiculousness.

I already said I wouldn't give up a second. If I could give up a third, though, you are giving a player who has a maybe 50% chance of being a decent starter.

We have ten picks, that's not giving up your whole draft like you're trading up for Ricky Williams or something.

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So you're conceding that you suck at drafting then? This is exactly the problem. You just assume you can't draft for shit so might as well take the guy in the first that you know is going to be successful. And then you better hit in the second otherwise it's probably a one player draft (Which again is total failure). Because if those are your odds in the third then they must really blow in the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh round.

Oh and by the way, your third round pick is probably only moving you up to 15... So yeah, you're probably talking more like second for Derwin James.

boozeman said:

“Well, the rumors of the wildcatter’s demise has certainly been exaggerated,” Jones said with a smile and a wink at the NFL owners meeting. “I’m not going to but I would like to, apart from a couple of player personnels, I’d like to show a few other decisions that I’ve made around here, and they’ve got more hair on them then you’d ever seen. So I will take a chance. Still.”

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Please tell me Booze added this just to piss us off.

And edit... When I posted that I hadn't even seen iam and CRock's posts. Swear.

Chocolate Lab said:

Please tell me Booze added this just to piss us off.

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I thought the same thing but that's actually a quote in the article from Jerry Jones.

Chocolate Lab said:

Please tell me Booze added this just to piss us off.

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I thought he may have at first, too, so I looked up the article before posting. Read for yourself straight from the article...

http://www.star-telegram.com/latest-news/article207126019.html

Cowboysrock55 said:

So you're conceding that you suck at drafting then? This is exactly the problem. You just assume you can't draft for shit so might as well take the guy in the first that you know is going to be successful. And then you better hit in the second otherwise it's probably a one player draft (Which again is total failure). Because if those are your odds in the third then they must really blow in the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh round.

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Those are the odds even for teams that draft well. You simply do not hit on all star players in the third round consistently. Guys like Maliek Collins and Jourdan Lewis are pretty much nearly best case scenarios in most years. And you will have plenty of Tyrone Crawfords in there -- and worse -- even if you are drafting well.

Your position is that you basically would never give up a Taco Charlton and Maliek Collins combination -- two picks that are total hits, by the way -- to move up to get a player you might think is an All Pro caliber player. You would never do a two-for-one in this scenario.

Insane.

An All Pro level player is worth four Taco Charltons.

Chocolate Lab said:

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Yeah. Me, too.

mschmidt64 said:

Those are the odds even for teams that draft well. You simply do not hit on all star players in the third round consistently. Guys like Maliek Collins and Jourdan Lewis are pretty much nearly best case scenarios in most years. And you will have plenty of Tyrone Crawfords in there -- and worse -- even if you are drafting well.

Your position is that you basically would never give up a Taco Charlton and Maliek Collins combination -- two picks that are total hits, by the way -- to move up to get a player you might think is an All Pro caliber player. You would never do a two-for-one in this scenario.

Insane.

An All Pro level player is worth four Taco Charltons.

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And what if instead you just traded up for Kenny Vaccaro? Not a bust but a safety who went 15th overall which is what you're suggesting with a 19th pick and our corresponding third rounder? We aren't talking about moving into the top 5 for a home run prospect.

I just don't think I'd give up Taco and Collins for Derwin James. We might as well put names to them. Shit, would you trade Demarcus Lawrence and Jourdan Lewis? That's probably even less value for Derwin James?

Of course Ed Reed went 24th overall so you never really know. Funny thing is that year I would have taken Ed Reed over Roy Williams personally. But I guess it just goes to show everyone has their own preferences. And I like Derwin James much more than I liked Vaccaro for example.

Cowboysrock55 said:

And what if instead you just traded up for Kenny Vaccaro? Not a bust but a safety who went 15th overall which is what you're suggesting with a 19th pick and our corresponding third rounder?

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Oh, so now who is conceding that they can't draft?

We aren't talking about moving into the top 5 for a home run prospect.

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So you'd do it for a home run prospect?

That's what I'm saying James is by the way. He's a top 10 talent in this draft instead of a top 5 talent only because all the QBs are gonna push him down. That's why if he slides to 10, 11.... I'm on the phone.

Again this is my opinion of the player. You may disagree with the analysis of this player, but your argument hasn't been that you don't think this guy is worth it, your argument has been, you'll try to find Darren Woodson in the second instead of trading up to get Darren Woodson in the first.

I just don't think I'd give up Taco and Collins for Derwin James.

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I definitely do, but again.... I think he's a Pro Bowler.

mschmidt64 said:

Oh, so now who is conceding that they can't draft?



So you'd do it for a home run prospect?

That's what I'm saying James is by the way. He's a top 10 talent in this draft instead of a top 5 talent only because all the QBs are gonna push him down. That's why if he slides to 10, 11.... I'm on the phone.

Again this is my opinion of the player. You may disagree with the analysis of this player, but your argument hasn't been that you don't think this guy is worth it, your argument has been, you'll try to find Darren Woodson in the second instead of trading up to get Darren Woodson in the first.


I definitely do, but again.... I think he's a Pro Bowler.

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I'm just using the parameters that you set out. Which is that every player has some percentage of risk and reward and that a pick at 15 in the draft has some set percentage of success of failure (I horribly disagree with by the way, it's why you scout players afterall).

I really like Derwin James but I'm also really confident that I can get a better WR in this draft than Terrance Williams in the third round. Which is why I'm hesitant to make the move. I don't want to give up the chance at a home run at WR in the middle rounds so that I can have Derwin James. Not when I view Hernandez for example as a guy with all pro potential at guard. I like him the same way I liked Frederick. A guy who has freak strength and power who can really set and move the line of scrimmage the opposite direction.

I guess it's possible in a different draft I might not like the third round so much. But to me I have a hard time seeing any draft where I can't hit home runs in the first three rounds. Now the fourth and fifth usually I start getting heart broken and the guys I love really start to whittle down. But if you ask me what I think of Derwin, I'd take him in the top ten. I know some experts disagree but I'm on board with you there. If we started with the 8th pick in this draft, he'd probably be at the top of my list for example.

On a side note I know we brought a lot of guys to Alabama's pro day. A player that has sort of gotten lost in the shuffle who was a potential first rounder who has fallen back as more of a second rounder now is Ronnie Harrison. Literally I totally forgot about the guy. If he slides on draft day into the second I'm snatching him up.

And a safety who I really like later on down the road in the draft is Terrell Edmunds. Brother to a certain LBer we all love in the first. He's a good prospect on his own. He is a leader, he has great size 6'2" 220 and runs a 4.47 forty with very good change of direction skills. Freak athletic ability runs in that family and I certainly wouldn't mind that kid. I've seen a fourth round projection on him, not sure if that's accurate but I really like him.

Which I guess all of this explains why I'd rather trade back. If I can get an extra second or third in this draft I'd be thrilled.

In fact, if I could *actually* give up Taco and Collins, I'd do it in a heartbeat, then use my own first and third to replace DE and DT.... maybe like Davenport or Payne in the first, and then Dorance Armstrong or Nathan Sheppard in the third.

Cowboysrock55 said:

I thought the same thing but that's actually a quote in the article from Jerry Jones.

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A wildcatter is an American term for an individual who drills wildcat wells, which are exploration oil wells drilled in areas not known to be oil fields.
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Recall Jerry's business roots, and you will understand his concept of self image.

mschmidt64 said:

In fact, if I could *actually* give up Taco and Collins, I'd do it in a heartbeat, then use my own first and third to replace DE and DT.... maybe like Davenport or Payne in the first, and then Dorance Armstrong or Nathan Sheppard in the third.

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You lost me at Payne. Now Davenport or Landry I might be able to get on board with. I'm not in love with Landry but I think he could be a really solid DE for us. I think he gets underrated a bit as a RE prospect.

But I really like Taco. I know he didn't put up a lot of stats as a rookie but when he played I actually liked a lot of what I saw towards the end of the season. He caused a lot of havoc in the Seattle game. Unfortunately few other players did.

p1_ said:

A wildcatter is an American term for an individual who drills wildcat wells, which are exploration oil wells drilled in areas not known to be oil fields.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Recall Jerry's business roots, and you will understand his concept of self image.

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Oh I get it. But when you apply the term to football operations all I can think of is a riverboat gambler who does crazy shit.

Cowboysrock55 said:

Oh I get it. But when you apply the term to football operations all I can think of is a riverboat gambler who does crazy shit.

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Jerry providing ample evidence of same.

He doesn't wrap up as much as I'd like but I think he is flying under the radar.