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The challenge of replacing Anthony Hitchens: Projecting linebackers
By Jeff Cavanaugh Mar 21, 2018
Today we're going to continue the search for an Anthony Hitchens replacement in the 2018 NFL Draft. Many of the top linebackers already have scouting reports on the site – you can see them here through our official draft board!
First, let's talk about the challenges in evaluating college linebackers. They come in so many varieties. In today's article, we're going to cover Fred Warner (BYU), Genard Avery (Memphis) and Uchenna Nwosu (USC). They're three completely different players, and that complicates the perspective of how they would look on the Cowboys defense. What are they asked to do for their school, and what would they be asked to do in Arlington?
Ideally, the team is looking for a MIKE (aka middle) linebacker. What's the role of the MIKE today? Maybe some people still picture a 250-pound enforcer in the run game. Crashing into offensive linemen, tossing them aside and then obliterating a running back. Don't get me wrong, I'd love my middle linebacker to do that. It's not the most important thing, however.
Last year the New York Giants passed the ball on 62% of their offensive plays. Washington passed 59% of the time, Philadelphia 56% of the time. We're in a passing league. Defenses play either nickel or dime (which takes a linebacker off the field) on over 60% of snaps. Coverage is the top concern of NFL defenses. If a linebacker can't cover, he just became ineligible to play on over 60% of our snaps. Unfortunately, we don't see college linebackers in coverage very often.
Colleges put their best players in the position they can most impact a game. That means many of them play as what we call an 'overhang' defender, or as undersized edge players who rush the passer and chase down plays. Those jobs don't necessarily exist on all NFL teams.
With that said, let's look at three candidates to eat up the missing Anthony Hitchens snaps and the challenges that come with projecting them.
Weight: 248
40 time: 4.60
Avery is an interesting study because his role was different throughout the year. Early in the season, he was a normal WILL (weak side) linebacker in the Memphis defense. Later he turned in to an 'overhang' player lining up outside the offensive tackle in a stand-up position where he could rush the passer and chase plays. He was outstanding in that role and the tackles for loss piled up. He ended the season with 22(!) tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
The problem? The position he played early in the year is more relevant to his potential Cowboys role. Sure, he could blitz and come off the edge occasionally for Dallas – but that wouldn't be his home. His home would be as one of your two off ball linebackers that stay on the field for all three downs. What he does best when in that role is play the run in space. Genard Avery can run and hit, there are no concerns there whatsoever.
He's a little bit on the short side for a linebacker but has a powerful build and speed to burn. He can get sideline-to-sideline and make a lot of plays in the run game.
Avery is not a perfect run player. At times he'll get caught up on the wrong side of blocks either by taking a false step in the wrong direction or just being a tick late reading what is happening. But with his athletic ability, speed and power I think he'll be just fine in that part of the game.
Even when Avery was playing WILL he would still come down to the line to rush the passer some – and he has ability in that regard too. He's not a refined pass rusher with a lot of moves, but he combines his speed with his go-to move, where he uses his left hand as his swat hand and executes an arm-over move with his right. He times the left hand well and it packs some violence.
He'll be an effective blitzer at the NFL level because he combines his go-to move with an ability to bounce laterally, giving himself space to get to the passer whether he's coming from the outside or on the interior.
The questions accompany Avery's ability to cover. He made the majority of his impact plays coming forward in the run game or getting after the passer in the passing game. How will he handle NFL coverage responsibilities? I've seen him do standard zone drops and get his hands on some footballs. I don't know how if he can cover a tight end up the seam or a shifty running back coming out of the backfield in space. When it comes to those things you have look at his athletic ability and hope that your coaching staff can develop that part of the game.
Avery is a fun prospect. I love the physicality and ability to get across the field in the run game. His ability to stay on the field will be decided by his ability to cover. I've got him graded as a third-round player.
Weight: 236
40 time: 4.64
Warner fits well in today's NFL. He plays a regular off-ball linebacker role but also will line up over slot receivers and *gasp* cover!
The coverage skills immediately add to his value. He confirmed the sort of athlete he is at the combine by running a good enough 40, then posting a great vertical (38.5″) and 3 cone time (6.90).
Warner is an athletic guy with an archetypal linebacker body. He showed some pop in his hands against teams like Utah State, but they weren't always there against better competition.
Unfortunately, we can't have it all. Warner is fluid and natural in coverage situations but as a run defender will put himself in a bad position and too often fails to finish. He is too athletic (as proven at the combine) to miss on plays like this.
His hits also lack pop. He tends to favor drag-down tackles.
Warner is slightly built and lacks the thump that we'd love our linebackers to have, but he shows the polish that a lot of college guys are missing when it comes to coverage. The give-and-take continues.
He'll sneak his way around blocks on the move in the run game. Productive over a three year period making tackles and tackles for loss.
Warner possesses the one thing that a lot of linebackers coming into the league either don't have or haven't shown on tape. He has the ability to cover backs and some receivers/tight ends. That's the biggest key to a linebacker being a three-down player. He has to develop the physicality in his game. I have Warner graded as a third round player.
Weight: 251
40 time: 4.65
Once again we have to play the projection game. A 3-4 defense could be comfortable picking Nwosu, plugging him in at outside linebacker and cruising along. But again, defenses spend most of their time in sub-packages and Nwosu wasn't a standard off-the-ball linebacker. He essentially plays stand up defensive end at USC. He's a pass rusher.
Nwosu would occasionally drop back in a standard curl-flat zone and he moves well enough that athletically, he should be able to cover. But having the physical ability and being a good cover linebacker can be two completely different things.
What Nwosu can do is rush the passer. He has good size (for a linebacker) and speed, plus length (33 5/8″ arms) that uses to keep himself free. He ended last season with 9.5 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss and 13(!) passes defended. He has great timing on the rush, getting his hands up and elevating when he knows he won't get to the QB in time. Against Stanford alone he batted down five passes. Sometimes he'll even catch his own deflection.
Nwosu runs well on plays away from him. He has the speed to close down the line of scrimmage in a hurry on interior runs, as well as on runs headed away from him.
On plays run at, him too often he'll get caught up on a block from a tight end or tackle and lose track of the ball.
He's a long guy that doesn't shy from physicality and his size helps him to be a good wrap up tackler.
I really like Nwosu as a prospect. I have him as a second-round player, and I'd guess a team that runs a 3-4 defense ends up picking him in the second. I wouldn't mind him as a Cowboy; he has the tools to stay on the field on every down.
These three are all very different prospects but are all options for the same job on the Cowboys. It's just a matter of what the team values and how comfortable they are projecting the players' future roles.
By Jeff Cavanaugh Mar 21, 2018
Today we're going to continue the search for an Anthony Hitchens replacement in the 2018 NFL Draft. Many of the top linebackers already have scouting reports on the site – you can see them here through our official draft board!
First, let's talk about the challenges in evaluating college linebackers. They come in so many varieties. In today's article, we're going to cover Fred Warner (BYU), Genard Avery (Memphis) and Uchenna Nwosu (USC). They're three completely different players, and that complicates the perspective of how they would look on the Cowboys defense. What are they asked to do for their school, and what would they be asked to do in Arlington?
Ideally, the team is looking for a MIKE (aka middle) linebacker. What's the role of the MIKE today? Maybe some people still picture a 250-pound enforcer in the run game. Crashing into offensive linemen, tossing them aside and then obliterating a running back. Don't get me wrong, I'd love my middle linebacker to do that. It's not the most important thing, however.
Last year the New York Giants passed the ball on 62% of their offensive plays. Washington passed 59% of the time, Philadelphia 56% of the time. We're in a passing league. Defenses play either nickel or dime (which takes a linebacker off the field) on over 60% of snaps. Coverage is the top concern of NFL defenses. If a linebacker can't cover, he just became ineligible to play on over 60% of our snaps. Unfortunately, we don't see college linebackers in coverage very often.
Colleges put their best players in the position they can most impact a game. That means many of them play as what we call an 'overhang' defender, or as undersized edge players who rush the passer and chase down plays. Those jobs don't necessarily exist on all NFL teams.
With that said, let's look at three candidates to eat up the missing Anthony Hitchens snaps and the challenges that come with projecting them.
Genard Avery – LB – Memphis
Height: 6'0.4″Weight: 248
40 time: 4.60
Avery is an interesting study because his role was different throughout the year. Early in the season, he was a normal WILL (weak side) linebacker in the Memphis defense. Later he turned in to an 'overhang' player lining up outside the offensive tackle in a stand-up position where he could rush the passer and chase plays. He was outstanding in that role and the tackles for loss piled up. He ended the season with 22(!) tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
The problem? The position he played early in the year is more relevant to his potential Cowboys role. Sure, he could blitz and come off the edge occasionally for Dallas – but that wouldn't be his home. His home would be as one of your two off ball linebackers that stay on the field for all three downs. What he does best when in that role is play the run in space. Genard Avery can run and hit, there are no concerns there whatsoever.
He's a little bit on the short side for a linebacker but has a powerful build and speed to burn. He can get sideline-to-sideline and make a lot of plays in the run game.
Avery is not a perfect run player. At times he'll get caught up on the wrong side of blocks either by taking a false step in the wrong direction or just being a tick late reading what is happening. But with his athletic ability, speed and power I think he'll be just fine in that part of the game.
Even when Avery was playing WILL he would still come down to the line to rush the passer some – and he has ability in that regard too. He's not a refined pass rusher with a lot of moves, but he combines his speed with his go-to move, where he uses his left hand as his swat hand and executes an arm-over move with his right. He times the left hand well and it packs some violence.
He'll be an effective blitzer at the NFL level because he combines his go-to move with an ability to bounce laterally, giving himself space to get to the passer whether he's coming from the outside or on the interior.
The questions accompany Avery's ability to cover. He made the majority of his impact plays coming forward in the run game or getting after the passer in the passing game. How will he handle NFL coverage responsibilities? I've seen him do standard zone drops and get his hands on some footballs. I don't know how if he can cover a tight end up the seam or a shifty running back coming out of the backfield in space. When it comes to those things you have look at his athletic ability and hope that your coaching staff can develop that part of the game.
STRENGTHS:
- SPEED: Plays to his impressive 40-yard dash time. Can get sideline to sideline in a hurry.
- THUMP: He has almost 250 pounds packed into a frame that's just over six feet tall. There's a lot of stopping power when he meets a ballcarrier.
- RUSH: He's not a developed pass-rusher but he wins with a single arm-over move and lateral movement to create space for himself. Lower body power helps him finish. Good timing with his swats.
- FLOW: His lack of height makes him tough to block on the move. Can sneak through blockers on the move to the ball.
- REDIRECT: Against option plays on tape, there are examples of him playing the QB to force the pitch then changing direction and being the guy who makes the tackle on the running back. His change of direction and burst are impressive.
WEAKNESSES:
- COVERAGE: When asked to drop, it sometimes appears that he's just drifting around. Looks like he was asked to QB spy as opposed to covering at times.
- CONSISTENCY: Will get hung up on blocks or false step and set himself up to be sealed out of a play at times.
- LENGTH: He's on the short side for a linebacker and also has short arms (31″).
Avery is a fun prospect. I love the physicality and ability to get across the field in the run game. His ability to stay on the field will be decided by his ability to cover. I've got him graded as a third-round player.
Fred Warner – LB – BYU
Height: 6'3.3″Weight: 236
40 time: 4.64
Warner fits well in today's NFL. He plays a regular off-ball linebacker role but also will line up over slot receivers and *gasp* cover!
The coverage skills immediately add to his value. He confirmed the sort of athlete he is at the combine by running a good enough 40, then posting a great vertical (38.5″) and 3 cone time (6.90).
Warner is an athletic guy with an archetypal linebacker body. He showed some pop in his hands against teams like Utah State, but they weren't always there against better competition.
Unfortunately, we can't have it all. Warner is fluid and natural in coverage situations but as a run defender will put himself in a bad position and too often fails to finish. He is too athletic (as proven at the combine) to miss on plays like this.
His hits also lack pop. He tends to favor drag-down tackles.
Warner is slightly built and lacks the thump that we'd love our linebackers to have, but he shows the polish that a lot of college guys are missing when it comes to coverage. The give-and-take continues.
He'll sneak his way around blocks on the move in the run game. Productive over a three year period making tackles and tackles for loss.
STRENGTHS:
- COVERAGE: He'll line up over slot guys and reroute them or carry up the seam. Drops easily and can catch. Has 11 passes defended and four interceptions over the last two years.
- ATHLETICISM: He looked pretty athletic on tape, and his combine measurements were even better. Needs to continue to develop and put all of it together on the field.
- PURSUIT: Runs well and can cover ground in a hurry on plays away from him. When on the move, can make himself a tough target to block.
- AVAILABILITY: As a three-year starter he's played 13 games each of the last three seasons.
- INSTINCT: He's reads and reacts quickly after the snap.
WEAKNESSES:
- STRENGTH: He can be overpowered by blockers at the second level. Struggles to get himself free when a lineman locks on. He'll have to play stronger if he's going to be an NFL starter.
- FINISH: Warner has to become the sum of his athletic parts. He changes direction well and shows burst in short areas. Needs to be under control and not miss tackles that he's capable of making.
Warner possesses the one thing that a lot of linebackers coming into the league either don't have or haven't shown on tape. He has the ability to cover backs and some receivers/tight ends. That's the biggest key to a linebacker being a three-down player. He has to develop the physicality in his game. I have Warner graded as a third round player.
Uchenna Nwosu – EDGE – USC
Height: 6'2.1″ Weight: 251
40 time: 4.65
Once again we have to play the projection game. A 3-4 defense could be comfortable picking Nwosu, plugging him in at outside linebacker and cruising along. But again, defenses spend most of their time in sub-packages and Nwosu wasn't a standard off-the-ball linebacker. He essentially plays stand up defensive end at USC. He's a pass rusher.
Nwosu would occasionally drop back in a standard curl-flat zone and he moves well enough that athletically, he should be able to cover. But having the physical ability and being a good cover linebacker can be two completely different things.
What Nwosu can do is rush the passer. He has good size (for a linebacker) and speed, plus length (33 5/8″ arms) that uses to keep himself free. He ended last season with 9.5 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss and 13(!) passes defended. He has great timing on the rush, getting his hands up and elevating when he knows he won't get to the QB in time. Against Stanford alone he batted down five passes. Sometimes he'll even catch his own deflection.
Nwosu runs well on plays away from him. He has the speed to close down the line of scrimmage in a hurry on interior runs, as well as on runs headed away from him.
On plays run at, him too often he'll get caught up on a block from a tight end or tackle and lose track of the ball.
He's a long guy that doesn't shy from physicality and his size helps him to be a good wrap up tackler.
STRENGTHS:
- PRODUCTION: He has a well-rounded skillset. Finished 2017 with 9.5 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss and 13 passes defended.
- PURSUIT: As a backside guy chasing down the line, he'll track down ballcarriers.
- BURST: If he's near a ballcarrier he can close in a hurry.
- HANDS: On pass plays he's able to track what the QB is doing and get his hands up to affect or deflect the ball.
- LENGTH: Has long arms (33 5/8 inches) that when he uses them correctly helps him leverage offensive linemen and get to the ball.
- PASS RUSH: Has the speed to win outside of offensive tackles, and some power to surprise them when they worry about the speed.
- ATHLETICISM: You can see him getting to the ball in a variety of ways. Will spin off a block one play, win outside on the next then shake a blocker in a confined space to get by.
WEAKNESSES:
- BALL AWARENESS: On too many occasions I saw the ball goes by him while he fought a block and didn't realize it. Multiple jet sweeps got outside his contain area because he hadn't located the ball.
- TRANSITION: If the Cowboys take him, he'll need to transition from an edge player to an off-ball linebacker. You're not going to use an early pick on a SAM linebacker unless he can be one of your two guys on the field in nickel and dime.
- SHED: I don't like when my edge guys get blocked by tight ends, and that happens too often.
- COVERAGE: I list it here because it's a bit of an unknown. Has the physical tools to do it.
I really like Nwosu as a prospect. I have him as a second-round player, and I'd guess a team that runs a 3-4 defense ends up picking him in the second. I wouldn't mind him as a Cowboy; he has the tools to stay on the field on every down.
These three are all very different prospects but are all options for the same job on the Cowboys. It's just a matter of what the team values and how comfortable they are projecting the players' future roles.