Sturm: Pondering The Present And Future Of Jason Witten

Cotton

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Pondering The Present And Future Of Jason Witten
Bob Sturm Mar 19, 2018

Every franchise in the history of sports has dreamed of finding the next generational icon. They scour the sports landscape in pursuit of the next figure that will be compared to those legends that came before him. They spare no expense in hopes that he will reveal himself to them in a ray of light.

He almost never does. In this case, the icon was the fifth pick of the third round, the fifth tight end taken out of 12 in that draft. Iowa's Dallas Clark went in Round 1, Michigan's Bennie Joppru, Rutgers' LJ Smith, and Stanford's Teyo Johnson were taken in Round 2. Johnson went to Oakland a mere six picks before the Dallas Cowboys went on the clock in Bill Parcells' first draft.

“Jason Witten, tight end, Tennessee”

Before that draft, OURLADS Scouting Services ranked Witten as the second-best tight end in the 2003 draft – behind Clark. He was thought to be a late first-round talent. Here was his profile from their guide that year:

Witten, Jason. Tennessee – 6'5 3/4, 265, 4.70 40. Junior Eligible. Former defensive lineman. Solid producer the past two seasons. Has excellent size. Tall and well-built. Sturdy. Has good strength in the upper body and arms. Above average overall blocker. Not especially quick off the mark but he makes solid contact. Strikes with good lean and can generate movement on drive blocks. Can turn a defender with strong hand usage. Generally keeps his feet. Does a fairly good job of moving out on linebackers, though he is a little stiff adjusting in space. Not quick-footed as a blocker – gets stationary at times with his feet while attempting to win battles with his upper body. Works to sustain but isn't nasty in doing so. Athletic. Often used in motion or split wide. Good receiver for a big tight end. Releases smoothly and has the speed to get up the seam. Has reliable hands – can extend and snatch away from his body. Shows the concentration to make the tough grab. Doesn't have dynamic cutting ability or fluidity. Heavy-legged – lacks good leaping ability. Effective after the catch. Isn't nifty but he has the power to run through tackles hone he gets up a head of steam. Improving. Quality prospect.

They definitely thought he could be solid. Odds are incredibly low that anyone – Parcells, Ourlads, or Witten himself – would believe we would evaluate his game 15 years and 15 drafts later. That 20-year old is now 35 and will be 36 years old in early May.

There are now three football players in the history of the sport who have caught more passes in their career than Witten. Jerry Rice, Tony Gonzalez, and Larry Fitzgerald. He is one of the greatest players in this era, he is a sure Hall of Famer, and regardless of whether he ever tapes his ankles again, he will be a Cowboys legend for as long as any of us will ever live and beyond.

During his prime, Witten and Tony Gonzalez set the pace for the position's evolution. From the start of Witten's 2nd season in 2004, you could argue that the two of them were only playing against each other for a solid decade straight. Look at the numbers they put up the decade from 2004-2013:


(courtesy: ProFootballReference.com)

Nearly identical stat lines – 13 more catches for 28 more yards was Gonzalez' margin over a 10-year period of time. Others were great – Antonio Gates and his 85 Touchdowns should not be overlooked – but Witten and Gonzalez led the way.

Not only that, but Witten added a unique trait as a complete tight end – an exceptional blocker and the perfect run/pass compliment who held defenses hostage in a guessing game with no way to win. He would make them wrong. You prepare for a run, he slips out past the sticks. You play the pass and he seals off the edge for a run. And none of this properly quantifies his value as a team leader and a guy that others could look to for a blueprint of how to go about your business.

Every franchise dreams of Jason Witten in their life. But, if there is one thing we have learned in following careers like this, it is that as badly as every organization wants a player like this, they evidently have no idea how to handle his final chapters.
In the last decade in Dallas, we have seen the awkward ending of Mike Modano's career – the man who will undoubtedly be the greatest hockey player in Stars franchise history. His final few years in Dallas were a bizarre dance between an organization and its hero – one that was often out of sync and revealed two sides who did not quite know how to deal with each other. The fan base adores their idol unconditionally and the coaching staff is tasked with stacking the roster to acquire wins. Often, the icon cannot carry the same workload, but either he suggests the downsizing of his burden or it doesn't get changed. The front office and coaches realize a perceived arm-twisting of the icon will result in the public completely turning on them. The transition can even end in resentment. Modano played his final season in Detroit because his lifetime franchise finally said “enough”. He still seems annoyed by the entire transition. The Stars painted themselves into a corner and it turned out oddly, mostly because they had no idea how to dismount.

Similarly, perhaps the greatest athlete this city has called its own has been transitioning out of a legendary career for several years now. Just two players in basketball history have played 20 seasons with the same franchise and the Dallas Mavericks realize they owe just about all their success to Dirk Nowitzki's heavy lifting. It seems like they witnessed the Modano situation and knew they sure didn't want Dirk going to Detroit or Atlanta for the end. Therefore, they have allowed him to set his own exit strategy since his NBA title and while every game he plays still gives us a moment or two to cherish, it is difficult to suggest Mavericks have a clear long-term strategy other than celebrating their icon as he knocks down milestones surrounded by what seems like a new roster around him every 18 months. He is quite agreeable about his role diminishing, but he still enjoys playing in Dallas and is planning for a 21st season.

Did the Stars know how the Mike Modano fairy tale should end? No. How about the Mavericks and Dirk? No. Both of those men brought world titles to Dallas; the only title either franchise has ever won. There is no amount of gratitude that seems enough to repay that and sometimes a statue isn't enough when they still want to play. Both teams pretty much tell you that it is up to the star to decide how their story ends. The Stars finally changed their mind, the Mavericks will not do so.

Now, we know that the Cowboys don't owe any one man for their place in this sporting world. Tom Landry, Bob Lilly, and Roger Staubach are probably the most-identified forefathers, but the 90's Cowboys provided the Triplets and they gathered more trophies themselves than the first group did in three decades. I would safely place Jason Witten amongst the top 10 Cowboys of all-time, but if you make us assemble the top 5, it would be a discussion that would get heated and a final outcome would hardly be unanimous about his place in Cowboys history.

And yet, because he is a clear legend, the front office and the coaching staff don't quite seem to know how to treat Witten any differently than Modano or Nowitzki were handled. In other words, it would seem that the team lacks a real game-plan beyond leaving it completely up to the player to decide what his role will be and when it will end.

And Jason Witten is competitive enough that the moment he admits he is not good enough anymore, you will know it – because he will retire. Until then, he is fighting Father Time every day. That is great, right?

Sure. Except Witten is not willing to concede one single play. Not one snap:

20132014201520162017Total Snaps
Witten101210711042101610485189
Olsen10121091108310303584574
Rudolph4304478599699243629
Gronkowski3908469553529033446
Kelce06889438868723389



Snap counts are very important to Jason Witten. They are a real source of pride for him. I have asked him about this and even used the “Dirk Nowitzki scaling back his workload” discussion with him in the past. He wants to play every down because he believes he helps this team win. I certainly don't blame him, because that confidence and drive is what defines competitors.

There was a single NFL Tight End who played 1,000 snaps last year: Jason Witten. Kyle Rudolph, age 28, was 2nd at 924. The average starting TE plays about 700-750 snaps a year (about 45 a game). Witten plays 65 snaps a game (all of them – 100%), almost nobody else comes close. He is 35 years old.

This can become problematic if his play diminishes and the team's offense begins to struggle. It would be disingenuous and disrespectful to suggest that this is because of Witten. Trust me, I err on the side of unconditional support for the man I respect so much, but it would be equally disingenuous to suggest that you shouldn't look at him as part of the reason for an offensive slowdown.

The classic tight split, isolating a safety in space and seam route for TD in 2013 vs Green Bay.

At his peak, Witten was a machine down the seams. Linebackers had no chance and safeties were often barbecued, too. I doubt you need to be reminded how devastating he was, but time has seemed to have altered things:



Basically, his last 3 seasons ('15-'17) combined to make up what he would normally get in one season in his prime. This is called “normal” as the aging process does with Jason Witten what it does with literally every athlete ever. From that perspective, he delayed the effects longer than almost every one of his contemporaries. But the chart tells a story. And the story is that there is no routine verticality anymore.

In 2011, this was one of many explosive plays from improvisations of Romo to Witten.

The two charts below are to demonstrate the change in his game – understandably showing the difference between being 31 years old and 35. First, how his 20-yard pass completions and overall throw charts would look in a really productive season like 2013 (blue is all of the 20-yard completions that included some yards after catch for sure, red are incomplete deep passes, and green are touchdown passes downfield):



And, then, here is how that same search appeared last season when the offense was not moving the ball in the air.



The differences are stark. Some will blame the transition from Tony Romo to Dak Prescott, but that seems an oversimplification, despite a clear concession that the connection from Romo to Witten was impossible to duplicate.

Believe it or not, Witten actually played more snaps in 2017 than he did in 2013. Now, keep in mind, this is likely just a function of the team having the ball more because part of the appeal of Witten and his Hall of Fame resume is that he played every snap and did everything that 1-dimensional tight ends can never equal. But the deeper routes are gone. Logic says that a 25-year old is going to be more athletic than his 35-year old self, especially if he has taken a beating for the entirety of his sporting life. That takes a toll. You naturally slow down. But, what if your workload doesn't?




1.6 yards after catch suggests that there was almost no YAC this year. Witten is over 2 yards tall, so, as #CowboysTwitter has suggested, if he falls forward… Less than 100 yards all year.

Witten has had his name come up in the last three months to coach back at Tennessee (which seems far-fetched) and to go right into the TV booth (which actually seems plausible, but still rather unlikely to me).

Rumors like that weren't out there 3 years ago, which suggest that maybe his camp is at least sending out feelers. He is a proud man with an amazing career and certainly would never want to fall into a category that cynics have reserved for Modano, Nowitzki, and just about any other athlete in an organization where the team is not interested in an awkward breakup. The best way to define this category is “progress stopper.” It is basically used to describe that the eternal churn of the roster has come to a brief halt at this position because a player has “earned the right to go out on their own terms.”

I definitely still believe that Jason Witten can have a significant role in 2018. I am not one who thinks he has fallen off so far that the Cowboys have a better current option if he wishes to play (which it appears he clearly does). In the three years since Tony Romo's last healthy campaign, Witten has averaged around 70 catches and just under 700 yards. Believe it or not, because we are spoiled, those are strong TE numbers and his salary of just under $7m is what we would call the “going rate” for a starter who can post those. His prime meant 90 catches and 1,000 yards. Those days are over, but his career doesn't have to be. And if it isn't, his cap charge is in the neighborhood for what you would expect to pay for his production. He was 7th in catches and 12th in yards while grading 11th in run blocking by Pro Football Focus. His cap charge ranking in the NFL for 2018? 11th.

That being said, we must get reasonable here. I don't think he should be playing a league-leading 1,000 snaps. I'd imagine he should likely be closer to that 700 plays or so. And it is nothing for him to feel bad about. In the entire history of the NFL, here are all of the seasons a TE has had after his 36th birthday that resulted in at least 600 yards receiving:

PlayerSeasonAgeTeamRecYardsTDs
Gonzalez201236ATL939308
Gonzalez201337ATL838598



Only one guy did it and he did it twice. Now, in fairness, he played about 1,000 snaps a season in those two years and maybe Tony is the guy inspiring Witten to finish his career this way. But Gonzalez is the only guy in the sport's history to do this.

I have discussed my great intrigue about young TE Rico Gathers over the last 2 years. His disappearance this year was under-reported after a big preseason, yet he seems to naturally possess, at age 24, what Jason Witten once did with regularity. Maybe we see it in 2018. Or, maybe Rico Gathers is merely another name of Jason Witten understudies (Anthony Fasano, Martellus Bennett, Gavin Escobar) that never amounted to too much in Cowboys uniforms. We don't know.

Above, in preseason 2017, a young Rico Gathers looks like Jason Witten once did.

But, I suppose that might be the point. It would behoove them to find out about Gathers or another similar vertical seam threat in this draft. The Cowboys do need to challenge defenses like they used to with regularity. One important element of this offseason is the necessary questions about the old guard of Witten, Dez Bryant, and Terrance Williams. How much of their collective downslide is due to QB play, and how much is due to stagnant player turnover or the natural loss of collective edge?
Why is there almost no verticality to the Cowboys offense whatsoever and how does it get fixed? Would new, young juice fix the development of Dak Prescott? Or do these receivers simply need better QB play?

This brings us back to where we started. We have established that these teams do not wish to confront their icons. If Jason Witten wants to play 100% of the snaps and you think you might need to look to spread that workload and include some youth, who is going to tell him about what is best for the organization to make sure progress is maintained?

This is 100% the job of the head coach and general manager. Of course, it has been their job for years and years. And based on the fact that Witten never leaves the field at the age of 35, I suspect they have yet to approach him with anything approaching a directive or even a gentle suggestion for age 36, either.

It is not Jason Witten's job to monitor his snaps and to ration them to promote maximum return in the twilight years. He is not the coach. He is operating as he, the athlete, should. It isn't up to him to train his successor or to worry about the roster in 2022. It is the team's job to make tough decisions and enforce them. There is a way to do things that are not disrespectful or offensive. But, in my estimation, it is probably something they should strongly consider doing this spring. Since athletes in every sport perform at different levels based on optimum usage, Witten's usage must be considered for the good of the group.

Is he still good enough? Of course. At the very worst, he is still a very solid run blocker, a chain-moving target who knows how to get open in critical spots with great hands, and a very strong veteran presence on an offense with very young key skill guys. He can still rise up and make plays. I wouldn't recommend you leave him alone against edge rushers anymore, but he will battle hard. Some fans insist that he commits at least a penalty every game these days, but the truth is 15 tight ends committed more penalties than he did (4) and they all played significantly fewer snaps (as we noted clearly).

And, while plays below are certainly far rarer than they used to be, he can still get loose from time to time down the field.

Jason Witten is one of the very best to ever play the game at his position and he has played his entire career for this team. You should enjoy his stretch run, rather than show eagerness to push him out the door – especially given that the roster has almost nobody behind him – except a project tight end without an NFL reception.

If he is to continue his career – and it appears he has every intention to do so – they need the best possible season out of 36-year old Witten as they can get. Running him out there every down is unlikely to be that correct path. But neither is running him off the roster.
 

boozeman

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I don't buy it is that hard to figure out how to handle the later chapters of his career. They have to commit to scaling back his snaps, but fear him bitching about it.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I don't buy it is that hard to figure out how to handle the later chapters of his career. They have to commit to scaling back his snaps, but fear him bitching about it.
Yeah you can't play a 36 year old on every offensive snap.
 

Smitty

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Yeah, agreed. Garrett, grow a pair and sit his ass down and tell him he's benched if he objects.

The one thing I'll say is this.... I dunno how much sense there is to pull him off the field for James Hanna or Geoff Swaim. But Rico Gathers needs reps this season, period, if he's healthy, and he should get some not just WITH Witten but at the expense of Witten to see if he can handle to one-TE responsibilities moving forward. It would be huge to find a starting caliber TE that late in the draft and develop him from nothing into quality contributor (as it's always huge to find long term starters with 6ths, 7ths, or undrafted players). But if Gathers is a starting TE, then you don't need to consider drafting Ian Thomas in the third round this year as Dane Brugler has implied in recent mocks.

Too bad, I would have liked to have seen Witten get a ring, just like Romo, just like Ware. This era of Cowboys will have a lot of deserving guys never win in Dallas.

Oh, touching on another point in the article.... I'm not so sure, however, that we should just dismiss without examination, as Sturm does here, the effect that transitioning from Romo to Prescott has had. Prescott doesn't throw down field. So uh.... yeah... of course Witten's down field targets are going to shrivel up. Yes, some of that is Witten's fault. But I bet a not unsubstantial amount is Dak's.
 

Genghis Khan

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Oh, touching on another point in the article.... I'm not so sure, however, that we should just dismiss without examination, as Sturm does here, the effect that transitioning from Romo to Prescott has had. Prescott doesn't throw down field. So uh.... yeah... of course Witten's down field targets are going to shrivel up. Yes, some of that is Witten's fault. But I bet a not unsubstantial amount is Dak's.

Yep.

Funny, the article literally stated that Witten's production fell beginning in 2015.

Dez's decline in production began at the exact same time.

Oh, really?

I wonder what happened beginning in 2015?

If Brandon Weedon was the QB the entire time people would be screaming from the hilltops about him.

Instead, a lot of people seem to want to point the finger everywhere else.

I'm baffled that this isn't more of an issue for people.
 

Smitty

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And as much as we want to blame coaching, we had no issue going downfield with Romo. So is the staff out of ideas? Or does the staff not trust Prescott? Or is Prescott simply not able to execute downfield? Maybe some combination of all three, but I'm positive it is at least partially Prescott's lack of execution, which in turn, effects the staff's trust of him.

Prescott needs to take a very big leap this year or we will probably be looking for a QB again soon.
 

Cotton

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And as much as we want to blame coaching, we had no issue going downfield with Romo. So is the staff out of ideas? Or does the staff not trust Prescott? Or is Prescott simply not able to execute downfield? Maybe some combination of all three, but I'm positive it is at least partially Prescott's lack of execution, which in turn, effects the staff's trust of him.

Prescott needs to take a very big leap this year or we will probably be looking for a QB again soon.
affects*

:thumbsup
 

bbgun

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Benching a guy who goes on family vacations with the boss. Hilarious.
 

bbgun

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Prescott needs to take a very big leap this year or we will probably be looking for a QB again soon.
Nope. Jerry has decided that he's getting paid no matter what. Our search for a franchise QB is over! Aren't you elated?
 

ravidubey

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I'm baffled that this isn't more of an issue for people.
Dak became not only a hero but a savior in 2016. We saw what life with scrub QB play was the prior year and were facing that all over again when Romo got hurt.

Then Dak started not only driving the bus but all sorts of cars and maybe a couple of planes.

He was outstanding and won a lot of peoples hearts.

Unfortunately you can only go so far as a rookie.

Also, the perfect offensive supporting cast around Dak did him a disservice in that he was barely pressured in 2016 and thus his normal learning curve was delayed. The rest of the team removed most adversity and also Dak's nead to learn to deal with it.

This year, he came down to Earth. It was kind of inevitable.

We need to see if he can push the offense to new heights or if he'll be content to stay within the boundaries laid out for him.
 

Angrymesscan

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And as much as we want to blame coaching, we had no issue going downfield with Romo. So is the staff out of ideas? Or does the staff not trust Prescott? Or is Prescott simply not able to execute downfield? Maybe some combination of all three, but I'm positive it is at least partially Prescott's lack of execution, which in turn, effects the staff's trust of him.

Prescott needs to take a very big leap this year or we will probably be looking for a QB again soon.
Effects???
Dear Lord I thought you went to a decent college...

Even the Raider knows better...


:unsure
 

Cowboysrock55

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So wait, are people trying to blame this on Dak



Certainly we can all see the decline. The man is 36 for gods sake. It would take a miracle for him not to decline some at that age.
 

Smitty

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So wait, are people trying to blame this on Dak



Certainly we can all see the decline. The man is 36 for gods sake. It would take a miracle for him not to decline some at that age.
Uh.... no. We are trying to blame his downfield targets declining on Dak, not his YPC.

No one said it's all Dak. My words were, if you cared to examine them instead of jumping to unreasonable conclusions, I wonder if it's something that should not just be dismissed out of hand as Sturm does in this article. Implying it could be substantially both things.
 

Genghis Khan

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Uh.... no. We are trying to blame his downfield targets declining on Dak, not his YPC.

No one said it's all Dak. My words were, if you cared to examine them instead of jumping to unreasonable conclusions, I wonder if it's something that should not just be dismissed out of hand as Sturm does in this article. Implying it could be substantially both things.
That chart isn't YPC, it's yards AFTER catch.

Seems to me that YAC has very little to do with our discussion though.
 

Cowboysrock55

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That chart isn't YPC, it's yards AFTER catch.

Seems to me that YAC has very little to do with our discussion though.
YAC has everything to do with it. As a player becomes worse and worse he is going to get less and less YAC. YAC indicates separation and explosive ability with the ball in his hands. A 1.6 indicates a total lack of any of those traits. That has to be one of the worst YAC per reception in the NFL.
 

Smitty

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YAC has everything to do with it. As a player becomes worse and worse he is going to get less and less YAC. YAC indicates separation and explosive ability with the ball in his hands. A 1.6 indicates a total lack of any of those traits. That has to be one of the worst YAC per reception in the NFL.
No, it doesn’t have everything to do with it. He’s always been poor at YAC. Sturm has another chart that his downfield targets have dried up as well. Obviously some of that is based on a decrease in explosiveness but since he did still do it occasionally as the chart showed, it meant he still was physically capable to sow extent. Wondering to what extent it was the QB cannot be answered by a YAC average.
 

Cowboysrock55

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No, it doesn’t have everything to do with it. He’s always been poor at YAC. Sturm has another chart that his downfield targets have dried up as well. Obviously some of that is based on a decrease in explosiveness but since he did still do it occasionally as the chart showed, it meant he still was physically capable to sow extent. Wondering to what extent it was the QB cannot be answered by a YAC average.
We threw to him downfield less last season because he is slow as dirt. Which is shown by the 1.7 yards after catch average. Which was by far the worst of his career.

The guy is 36 and slow as hell. This isn't rocket science. Players don't last forever.
 

Smitty

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We threw to him downfield less last season because he is slow as dirt. Which is shown by the 1.7 yards after catch average. Which was by far the worst of his career.

The guy is 36 and slow as hell. This isn't rocket science. Players don't last forever.
No, this chart does not prove any of that.
 
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