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Thread: Watkins: The Cowboys donít have an elite receiver anymore. How much does that matter?

  1. #61
    Senior Member Simpleton's Avatar
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    And yet the 3800 yards Goff had last year as opposed to Prescott's 3600 is an indicator of an elite QB compared to a guy Dallas might run out of town after 2018? Those 200 yards really mean that much to you?

    Or should I dismiss that the way you dismissed Roethlisberger's sub-60% completion %, 7.0 YPA, 206 YPG and 15 TD's:17 INT's in Year 5?

    Or his 59.7% completion %, 234 YPG and 18 TD's:23 INT's in Year 3?

    Surely he was in Quincy Carter territory then?

    Or was his everything just fine because of his YPA over his first 2 seasons despite the sub-200 YPG and good but not great 34 TD's:20 INT's?

    You can say all you want about an upward trajectory, Goff improving, Prescott stagnating, whatever. At the end of the day Prescott over his first 24 games was putting up elite TD:turnover stats, and good but not elite YPG, YPA, and completion %. Numbers that were nearly equal to what Goff and Wentz did last year, with almost certainly superior offensive structure on top of that.

    Everything fell apart over the last 8 games, sure, it provides some cause for concern, but there are also an untold number of mitigating factors and reasons to believe that those games were the outliers and the previous 24 are who he really is.

  2. #62
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleton View Post
    And yet the 3800 yards Goff had last year as opposed to Prescott's 3600 is an indicator of an elite QB compared to a guy Dallas might run out of town after 2018? Those 200 yards really mean that much to you?
    Prescott didn't GET to 3600, so you're not being factual.

    Goff improved and achieved 3800. He is on the upswing. He hit 250 ypg (248 actually), and yes, that is -- as I said -- right there at the cutoff of being in the top tier. Another 200 and you are at 4000 which is very good. So a 200 yard difference isn't anything to scoff at. For a second year player, this indicates he will probably continue to increase these numbers into the 4000 range next year.

    Prescott did not hit 3800. He was on PACE for 3600, not 3800 -- and yes, that number is more on the lower end of acceptable. But then he didn't even keep that pace up, he fell to only 3300, which, now we're talking not very good at all. I mean, you act like 200 yards is no big deal, but again, that's simply misleading on your part. Otherwise I could just as easily say, "What, it's no big deal when Quincy Carter threw for 3300 yards. What, you think the 300 yards between him and Prescott is a big deal???" Yes, it's a very big deal. 3300 was the best Carter could do, his absolutely best performace ever, but 3300 was not very good. 3600 is ok. 3800 and you are inching towards pretty good. 4000 is very good.

    But even if we assume everything goes right next year, if Prescott only returns to 3600, that is more like the low end of acceptable. He needs to bump it up more into the 3800 range to be Russell Wilson range.

    And if he wants to be top end -- like a current Roethlisberger, Brees, etc, you know, the QBs better than Russell Wilson -- he's gotta blow by 250.

    The "running out of town part" is if he keeps up the sub-220 pace. Like I said, it's not a 0% chance that the league figures him out, and he's not what we thought, and he ends up not being any more than that.


    Or should I dismiss that the way you dismissed Roethlisberger's sub-60% completion %, 7.0 YPA, 206 YPG and 15 TD's:17 INT's in Year 5?

    Or his 59.7% completion %, 234 YPG and 18 TD's:23 INT's in Year 3?

    Surely he was in Quincy Carter territory then?
    Yeah, Roethlisberger wasn't any good those years, I'm not sure what point you think you're making. 17 TDs and 15 INTs sucks.

    Subequently, Roethlisberger has become a guy who puts up 260 ypg every single year, though.

    Is your point that Prescott can become that because Roethlisberger did?

    Maybe. I'm not saying he can't become that.

    But I'm saying that's not what it looks like he's gonna become AT THIS TIME.

    Most QBs who throw 17 TDs and 15 INTs don't become Hall of Famers like Roethlisberger.

    However, none of that changes the fact that Roethlisberger's high YPA in a low YPG year differentiates that season from Prescott's in which he had low YPG AND low YPA.

    You can say all you want about an upward trajectory, Goff improving, Prescott stagnating, whatever. At the end of the day Prescott over his first 24 games was putting up elite TD:turnover stats, and good but not elite YPG, YPA, and completion %. Numbers that were nearly equal to what Goff and Wentz did last year, with almost certainly superior offensive structure on top of that.
    Yeah, I will say "all I want" about trajectory.

    Saying "his first 24 games" is the clever way to say, Prescott sucked at the end of last year after being relatively good but not great to start the year.

    Parading his rookie stats out there like they are some sort of insulation against criticism is ridiculous. When you have a ten year track record of success, and have a down year, it's just a down year. When you are a rookie and have a bad year followed by a good year, that's simply standard practice. Rookies usually are no good.

    But when you have a first year like Prescott where you show lots of good things, but a game that overall needs improvement, and then in your second year, you clearly backslide, that's cause for concern and it affects how you should be viewed going forward. Prescott IS on the hot seat. He doesn't have an established record of success to predict that his future will be great. He has a first year that was good but needs improvement, and the a second year that was not so good at all. Taken together, he MUST improve. Goff on the other hand, had a typical expected rookie year where he needed to improve, and then his second year he showed pretty much everything you'd expect. Prescott hasn't had that season yet. If he puts up 3800+ yards, hits at least 240 ypg, 25+ TDs, and under 10 INTs this year, that will be his "He's heading in the right direction and I feel good about him," year.

    Trying to lump in his first year numbers to inflate the picture is misleading. The fact that he backslid is more important when analyzing a second year player than the sum total of his stats, because the backslide shows direction, which is not good.

    Again, that's not determinative, but it's a bad sign. Your refusal to acknowledge that he has some bad signals floating around him right now is simple homerism.

    Everything fell apart over the last 8 games, sure, it provides some cause for concern, but there are also an untold number of mitigating factors and reasons to believe that those games were the outliers and the previous 24 are who he really is.
    But the first 24 still leave room for improvement. The first 24 were still just a 230 ypg QB. We weren't exactly tearing it up with Elliott and Prescott the first 8 games of the season. We were good not great, but it was obvious that the running game was the better aspect of the offense. If all Prescott ever is, is his first 24 games, that's ok, but it's not even Russell Wilson.

    To take the offense to the next level, to be more than the 5-3 we were with Elliott to start the year, where he was only so-so against the Giants, struggled for a half against Arizona, had a bad game against Denver before stat-padding late.... he really needs to get into that consistent 250 ypg category. The guys who are capable of putting up those numbers every week are gonna be less prone to bad stretches, more prone to consistently moving the ball up and down the field. That's where he needs to be.

    And he can be. He's not there yet. But again, even that..... is Russell Wilson.

    It doesn't look likely that he'll ever be 270-280 ypg, which is where Goff looks likely to be at this point. And that is, again, a very tangible difference, not a "negligible" one.
    Last edited by mschmidt64; 06-28-2018 at 03:19 PM.

  3. #63
    Senior Member Genghis Khan's Avatar
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    Here we go again.

    Dez had basically 4 total games with Romo since 2014.

    The changes in QB correlate just about exactly with the decline in Dez's numbers.

    You can extrapolate what you will from that, but that's not even opinion it's literal fact.

  4. #64
    Senior Member Simpleton's Avatar
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    What this basically comes down to is I'm willing to brush off the final 8 games due to the circumstances while you want them to be the defining stretch of Prescott's career to date.

    He struggled over the last 8 games under very difficult circumstances, perhaps impossible circumstances for any QB unless they are a veteran, potential HOF type. Average at best OL, average at best running game, no team speed on offense, an inconsistent number 1 WR, a putrid defense unless Lee was on the field, and most importantly, a coaching staff unwilling or unable to adjust their play-calling.

    Aside from those 8 games he struggled here and there, he didn't prove he can carry an offense by himself (newsflash, neither have Goff or Wentz) and he showed the need to improve in certain areas, but overall he was good to excellent in almost every quantifiable way.

    2017 Wentz: 33:9 total TD's:turnovers, 7.5 YPA, 60.2% completion, 253 YPG

    2017 Goff: 29:8 total TD's:turnovers, 8.0 YPA, 62.1% completion, 253 YPG

    2017 Prescott - 1st 8 Games Extrapolated over 16: 40 total TD's:8 turnovers, 7.0 YPA, 62.9% completion, 227 YPG

    2016 Prescott: 29:4 total TD's:turnovers, 8 YPA, 67.8% completion, but he only averaged 229 YPG and had "perfect" circumstances so this doesn't really count.

    So what am I supposed to believe here?

    That despite the fact that Prescott is damn near identical statistically over 24 games to Wentz/Goff he's really on the brink of being replaced while the other two are on the brink of "elite QB" status because of 8 games where the entire offense fell apart and because Wentz/Goff averaged about 25 more YPG passing?

    It's inane.

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  6. #65
    One-armed Knife Sharpener Iamtdg's Avatar
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    I think there are too many bored people at work today.
    2016 DCC LOTY Fantasy Football Champion

  7. #66
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleton View Post
    What this basically comes down to is I'm willing to brush off the final 8 games due to the circumstances while you want them to be the defining stretch of Prescott's career to date.
    You have the first part right: You are obviously willing to brush it off as nothing.

    But I don't think you are understanding what I'm saying. I'm not "defining" Prescott by that. Defining would be using that stretch to say "This is what he is, period." If I was saying the final 8 games was all Prescott could ever be, I would be advocating that he get cut immediately, cause it was garbage.

    But that's not what I'm saying, so kindly stop insinuating that I'm using those 8 games to "define," him.

    It boils down to this: His first season was good, very good, in fact, in some areas even great. However, certain posters, Geng and I included, both said about Prescott that he needed to improve significantly after his rookie year, to take the leap to elite QB (or even to reach Romo's level, near-elite). His 23:4 TD:INT ratio was great. His completion percentage was great. His 13-3 record was great. But the offense was so good because of the running game, not because Prescott was Romo-ing the offense all over the field.

    For Prescott to take that next step, which would REALLY make the offense unstoppable, would require that he become at least CLOSE to Romo's ability to produce 260-270-280 yards per game. Because when you have that ability, PLUS a running game, you get the 2014 Cowboys, every year.

    Instead, Prescott gave us more of the same for 8 games (good not great play), and then backslid to pretty bad play.

    So I'm not "defining" him based on that 8 games. I'm saying even his first 24 games leave us with a QB that needs to improve. And the last 8 games cast at least some doubt on whether he will do that.


    He struggled over the last 8 games under very difficult circumstances, perhaps impossible circumstances for any QB unless they are a veteran, potential HOF type. Average at best OL, average at best running game, no team speed on offense, an inconsistent number 1 WR, a putrid defense unless Lee was on the field, and most importantly, a coaching staff unwilling or unable to adjust their play-calling.
    Let's not get carried away. He struggled and there were lots of factors working against him. But his last 8 games averaged 188 ypg. That's basically not starter caliber play, period, even without your starting RB and LT. And you already admitted, as is the truth, that he personally played poorly.

    That being said, I'm not saying "He needs to be replaced because he played poorly for 8 games down the stretch." I'm saying, he is APPROACHING a very hot seat, because even his first year was not good enough for him to continue to give us that production (it was just fine for a rookie). He needed to improve his second year, and not only did he NOT improve (he didn't even improve in his first 8 games, really), but he actually got worse in his last 8 games, which shows trend.

    Even if he bounces back to the level of his first 8 games of 2017, he needs to improve on that to take the leap to top tier QB.


    2017 Wentz: 33:9 total TD's:turnovers, 7.5 YPA, 60.2% completion, 253 YPG

    2017 Goff: 29:8 total TD's:turnovers, 8.0 YPA, 62.1% completion, 253 YPG

    2017 Prescott - 1st 8 Games Extrapolated over 16: 40 total TD's:8 turnovers, 7.0 YPA, 62.9% completion, 227 YPG

    2016 Prescott: 29:4 total TD's:turnovers, 8 YPA, 67.8% completion, but he only averaged 229 YPG and had "perfect" circumstances so this doesn't really count.

    So what am I supposed to believe here?
    What do you mean "what are you supposed to believe?" It's right in front of you. Goff, 250 ypg, Wentz, 250 ypg, Prescott, 225 ypg.

    It's a big difference. It's the same difference from Prescott to Goff in YPG as from Prescott to Quincy Carter, that's what you seem to be missing. You act like that 25 ypg is no big deal. Wrong, it's a tremendous deal.

    On top of that, you continue to compile his first two years stats as if that was relevant.

    We are projecting development here. Starting out hot and then cooling off isn't as good as starting off slow but then heating up. If you are given those two options, you choose the player who is heating up, not cooling off. So trying to pass these numbers off as "equal" is misleading. Prescott's declining statistics, or even if we throw out his last 8 games, his not improving statistics, is NOT as impressive as Goff and Wentz each having more pedestrian rookie years but then passing 250 ypg their sophomore years.

    And again, none of this is to say Prescott can't break through that threshold this season.

    But I'm drawing a line in the sand, that I am NOT gonna sit here and pretend everything about Prescott is fine if he puts up 225 ypg again this season. No, he NEEDS to improve up to about 240-250 ypg. As Goff and Wentz have already done.

    That despite the fact that Prescott is damn near identical statistically over 24 games
    Again, irrelevant. Why would I give a shit what Goff and Wentz did their rookie years? Rookies are traditionally not factors.

    Prescott excelled his rookie year, for a rookie, but when he failed to improve to the level he needed to get to in his sophomore year, but Goff and Wentz did improve and surpass him, then their struggles as rookies were completely irrelevant to the discussion, and thus a statistical measurement of their first years is also irrelevant. They've surpassed their first years in terms of performance, so those first years are simply skewed statistical samples at this point, if you are trying to predict future performance. I'm sure you'd agree it's not particularly likely that Goff goes 0-7 with 5 TDs and 7 INTs ever again. If you agree with that, then why would adding those numbers into a two year compilation to compare to Prescott have any bearing whatsoever? Those numbers were not the true Jared Goff. He has already surpassed that ability.

    Conversely, a backsliding player MIGHT be the true projection of that player, because what he's currently doing is what he currently is.

    But even if it's not, you can compare Prescott's first 8 games of 2017, and throw out the last 8 and call it "extenuating circumstances," and it still leaves something to be desired compared to Goff and Wentz. He simply doesn't move the ball through the air at the same clip as they do. He's more on par with Russell Wilson's development than the development of the true top tier QBs.

    to Wentz/Goff he's really on the brink of being replaced while the other two are on the brink of "elite QB" status because of 8 games where the entire offense fell apart and because Wentz/Goff averaged about 25 more YPG passing?

    It's inane.
    Prescott is only on the brink of being replaced if he does not increase his ypg output.

    If he turns into a 240-250 ypg QB, even while Wentz and Goff likely ascend to 260-270 ypg QBs this year, that will be enough to keep his job as long as he doesn't backslide in some other area.

    If Prescott sticks at 220-230 ypg, he will not get a contract extension here. He won't win enough. It's not possible in today's NFL to sustain a consistent winning team at 220 ypg passing.
    Last edited by mschmidt64; 06-28-2018 at 05:23 PM.

  8. #67
    Senior Member Cowboysrock55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Genghis Khan View Post
    Here we go again.

    Dez had basically 4 total games with Romo since 2014.

    The changes in QB correlate just about exactly with the decline in Dez's numbers.

    You can extrapolate what you will from that, but that's not even opinion it's literal fact.
    Many WR's are productive with multiple QBs. Look at Larry Fitzgerald as an example.

  9. #68
    Senior Member Genghis Khan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cowboysrock55 View Post
    Many WR's are productive with multiple QBs. Look at Larry Fitzgerald as an example.
    Are you sure about that?

    Because I'm seeing some serious lulls in the prime of his career.

    I mean, Fitzgerald has three straight years - essentially full seasons - without 1000 yards.

  10. #69
    Senior Member Cowboysrock55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Genghis Khan View Post
    Are you sure about that?

    Because I'm seeing some serious lulls in the prime of his career.

    I mean, Fitzgerald has three straight years - essentially full seasons - without 1000 yards.
    He put up 1100 yards and was super productive last year with Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton throwing him the ball over half the season. QBs that are way, way, way inferior to Dak Prescott.

  11. #70
    Senior Member ravidubey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleton View Post
    We have enough talent if we had a top notch coaching staff who could scheme ways to open up the passing game, similar to the Rams last year.
    Illusion without a stronger defense, and the Rams front office knew it and got A LOT better, unless you subscribe to the sbk idiocy that adding two elite CBs makes no difference.

    We did jack shit to improve defensively. We are homerifically pinning hopes on a DB coach and our 1st round pick while choosing to ignore losses like Scandrick and Hitchens because, yíknow, because.

    Meanwhile our QB took a step sideways and back last year, our RB peaked as a rookie, and we have a collection of league castoffs and never-wasíes at WR. Weíre pinning hopes on a rookie OG and rookie 3rd round WR, and 4th round rookie TE.

    Those are some bad holes where you could have Bill Parcells and Bill Billichick coaching and not have a chance at three playoff games in a row vs QBs like Brees or Rodgers or defenses like Minny or Philly.

    And we STILL have Jason Garrett on top of it! We are staring 8-8 in the face.

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