Cavanaugh: Predicting #50 - Re-creating the Cowboys Formula

Cotton

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[h=1]Predicting #50: Re-creating the Cowboys Formula

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By Jeff Cavanaugh 5 hours ago





We're going to talk about the most likely Cowboys second-round pick in a just a second, but first I want to harken back to lay the groundwork.


Last year after the Cowboys selected Taco Charlton with their first-round pick, Stephen Jones told us all they felt like they could get their 'pressure player' at the end of the first round and that they could get a quality corner at the end of the second. It's at 4:55 in this video if you like timestamps.


They looked at their board, they did a ton of exercises trying to predict what other teams would do, and the depth of the draft told them what they were going to do before it happened. I didn't like the Taco pick at all. I also don't love the idea of feeling like you need to pick a certain position with your first-round pick, but the point here is that you can look at a draft and a team's needs and have a decent feel for what might happen with certain picks.


The first rounder is tricky at this point because there's so much uncertainty about what's going to happen in front of the 19th pick. The Cowboys also need to be open to picking a lot of different positions.


That being said, we can take a look at this draft class and try and call our shot on the second round pick.


What follows is the deepest positions in this particular draft class and the names that are worth tucking away in the back of your brain.


Wide Receiver


1st round targets:



  • Calvin Ridley, Alabama. He's the only guy I have a first-round grade on. If he makes it to #19 he'd be a wonderful pick to add to this offense. Changes gears in a heartbeat, manipulates corners with his routes, creates easy separation for his QB.

2nd (or 3rd) round targets:


I listed this position first because it's the deepest position group in this draft. I'll list them in the order I currently have them in with the caveat that I see ALL of these guys as second-round players. There isn't a lot of separation.



  • Michael Gallup, Colorado State. He's a wide receiver without a weakness. I'm interested to see how he tests at the combine but he's a good route runner, fearless catching through contact and a tough dude after the catch.
  • Christian Kirk, Texas A&M. Kirk probably will be a slot guy in the NFL but he looks like an incredibly safe pick who can do what you expect out of NFL slots plus adds in the deep ball dimension.
  • DJ Moore, Maryland. Moore might not be 5'10 but he plays like he's 6'2. Toughness, route running, ability after the catch. He was essentially a one-man offense at Maryland.
  • Anthony Miller, Memphis. Definitive stick to his routes, ability to win in the big and small man game as a receiver.
  • Courtland Sutton, SMU. Sutton has a higher ceiling than almost everyone in this group but I question how he'll translate from SMU's offense to the NFL. Also curious how well he runs. He can help himself at the combine. Plays the ball great in the air and moves incredibly fluidly for his size.
  • Dante Pettis, Washington. Can help a team as a returner and a receiver. I'm not giving up on Ryan Switzer as a punt returner but Pettis' return ability has to be mentioned. He's another guy who's savvy at creating separation and does the little things well.
  • DJ Chark, LSU. Like Moore, he didn't get much help (read: any) from his QB play. Like Sutton, there's a little rawness to his game but he has the size you want and can absolutely fly. He'll probably run in the 4.3s at the combine. Unrefined but gifted with tons of talent.
  • James Washington, Oklahoma State. He was a big-play machine in the Big 12. Does that ability to win vertically translate to the NFL? Another guy I'm curious to see the speed on but he has vice grips for hands, tracks the deep ball incredibly well and produced huge numbers.

This is what happened at cornerback in last year's draft. The position was extremely deep, the Cowboys knew it and planned to pick a guy in the second round before the first round even started. Wide receiver is the sweetest spot this year. I currently have these eight guys as second-round talents and eight more as third-round talents.

Our next position of big depth in the draft is a repeat from last year. The cornerback class is outstanding again. This shouldn't be a big surprise since so many corners and receivers are on the field in college football.


Cornerback


1st round targets:



  • Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama. He has all the measurables you dream of and can play any position in the secondary well.
  • Denzel Ward, Ohio State. He's a short corner but his movement skills and ability to play the ball in the air help him overcome it.
  • Mike Hughes, Central Florida. Another guy who isn't big but plays press man and is a monster at it. He stays in phase with wide receivers through the routes and bullies them.

2nd (or 3rd) round targets to know keeping in mind these are my grades, some of these guys will go in the first round. Listed are all my second-round grades:



  • Jaire Alexander, Louisville. Need to watch the 2016 tape to see how good he can be. Twitchy corner that will take chances with positive results.
  • Josh Jackson, Iowa. Outstanding in coverage and getting his hands on the football. Opposite of outstanding when it comes to physicality and will to tackle.
  • Isaiah Oliver, Colorado. Good size and length, a great knack for playing through a receiver's hands when the ball arrives.
  • Rashaan Gaulden, Tennessee. Great awareness to make plays on passes that aren't even to his man. Willing to be physical and has solid cover skills.
  • Carlton Davis, Auburn. Ideal size for an outside corner. Struggled with some consistency vs inside routes but is great against outside releases and when he's on – he's very on.
  • MJ Stewart, North Carolina. Has versatility to play all over the secondary. Will be a good run support player and a more than capable slot corner.

There are a handful of other corners that I have as third-round guys. Cornerbacks are a hot commodity in the NFL and I could see as many as six going in the first round. That might make this a less likely pick at #50.


On to the bronze medal winner for draft depth, defensive tackle. In this case, I'm just talking about the largest of the humans, the nose tackles. This position isn't viewed as a really valuable spot in the NFL by many teams because most aren't three-down players. When you need to rush the passer you put in the rush-men. I include it here for a particular reason. Vita Vea. The nose tackle at Washington that has all the raw ability in the world is going to be a first-round pick. He was my dream pick at #19 for a little while earlier in the process. Not anymore. Value is the reason. After seeing a bunch of the guys in this class I think you can find better value in the second and even third round. Again, where I list these guys is where I have them graded, not a guess at where they'll be drafted. For instance, it appears Da'Ron Payne will go in the 1st.


Nose Tackle


1st round targets:



  • Vita Vea, Washington. I'd imagine he's been the biggest, strongest guy on the field his whole life. Technical refinement will come with NFL coaching. The raw tools are elite.

My second round grades:



  • Da'Ron Payne, Alabama. He was a dominant force in the playoff games. His lack of plays in the backfield over his career is what troubles me about his first-round projection. If I'm using a pick that high on a nose tackle he needs to bring some pressure.
  • Deadrin Senat, South Florida. Leverage, balance, power, initial quickness. One of those who might be able to stay on the field on pass-rush downs.
  • Derrick Nnadi, Florida State. Plays with violence. Wins the leverage game at the LOS and controls blockers with ease.

Honorable mention to my third-round grades has to be thrown in. It takes a really good player to be a day two pick as a nose tackle for me. The threes:



  • Folorunso Fatukasi, Connecticut. Outstanding gap-controller that's pretty athletic inside the tackle box.
  • Tim Settle, Virginia Tech. Physically he's outstanding. He needs to gain a better understanding of how people are trying to block him so he isn't caught off guard by a double-team so often.

Other positions of depth worth keeping an eye on when the Cowboys are on the clock in round two are tight end, linebacker and offensive tackle. The second round might be a little early for a tackle that ideally is never going to start a game because Tyron Smith is healthy. They will need to address the swing tackle spot in the draft or free agency though.


If you had to guess at what's going to happen at #50 my player rankings would guide you toward gambling a beverage of your choice to wide receiver. Throw a dart at the names above and you're going to hit a good one.
 

ravidubey

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Ridley will be a top ten pick or close to it. Benefits from there being no one else available.
 
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