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Thread: Pass rates on first down

  1. #41
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cowboysrock55 View Post
    8 out of 10 times could you call if it was a run or pass? I think that may actually not be that far off.
    I doubt it's anywhere near close.

  2. #42
    Senior Member Cowboysrock55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mschmidt64 View Post
    I doubt it's anywhere near close.
    Well you figure 50% you'd get right just by chance. I think we can all agree it's higher than 5/10. I'd be willing to bet I could nail 7/10 fairly easily as a run or pass given down and distance and the formation we are in. So no, I wouldn't say 8/10 is a stretch at all.

  3. #43


    Wow, I'd run out a 4-4-3 against us on first down.

  4. #44
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cowboysrock55 View Post
    Well you figure 50% you'd get right just by chance. I think we can all agree it's higher than 5/10. I'd be willing to bet I could nail 7/10 fairly easily as a run or pass given down and distance and the formation we are in. So no, I wouldn't say 8/10 is a stretch at all.
    Let's see you do it in a live situation.

  5. #45
    Senior Member Cowboysrock55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mschmidt64 View Post
    Let's see you do it in a live situation.
    I mean I have pointed it out during games many times. There was a breakdown last year of pass percentage out of shotgun and run percentage out of under center plays and it was shocking how often that alone indicated what we were doing. I wouldn't even know where to begin to find that article again but it was pretty damning.

  6. #46
    Senior Member Cowboysrock55's Avatar
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    In case anyone was curious we ran the ball when under center 76% of the time last year.

    We passed the ball from shotgun 83% of the time when in shotgun.

    So oddly enough, if you just guess pass every time we are in shotgun and run every time we are under center you'd be right around 8 out of 10 times....

    Looking at the numbers it's also crazy how much shotgun is used in the NFL these days. We are right at 50/50. But if you look at a team like the Eagles they ran shotgun like 72% of the time. Of course they ran the second most in the NFL from shotgun. 31% of the time they ran from the shotgun formation.

  7. #47
    Senior Member shane's Avatar
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    Of the many things I fault Garrett for, this is not one of them.

  8. #48
    Senior Member ravidubey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iamtdg View Post
    How many times has the play sequence gone: run for 4, run for 4, pass with 2 yards to go? It's infuriating and extremely predictable? They will have to fix that shit or we are in for another frustrating year.
    We just donít have the OL play of 2016 to sustain this kind of approach the length of the field anymore. Thatís an unrealistic approach. The situation was made worse with our crazy accurate kicker becoming a mere mortal thanks to nagging injuries.

    Teams should strive for 50% run/pass on first and second down.

    What would help is a stronger defense getting us the ball back more often.

  9. #49
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ravidubey View Post
    We just don’t have the OL play of 2016 to sustain this kind of approach the length of the field anymore. That’s an unrealistic approach. The situation was made worse with our crazy accurate kicker becoming a mere mortal thanks to nagging injuries.

    Teams should strive for 50% run/pass on first and second down.

    What would help is a stronger defense getting us the ball back more often.
    Trade for Earl Thomas and we may be close to that on defense.

    Also I think the OL may be close to 2016 level.

  10. #50
    Senior Member Cowboysrock55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mschmidt64 View Post
    Trade for Earl Thomas and we may be close to that on defense.

    Also I think the OL may be close to 2016 level.
    Yeah with Connor William's and a healthy Smith we could be right there with 2016 again.

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