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Thread: Pass rates on first down

  1. #1
    One-armed Knife Sharpener Iamtdg's Avatar
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    Pass rates on first down

    Check this out. This perfectly illustrates just how predictable our offense was last year. I wish I could hang this shit in Garrett's office as a daily reminder.

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  2. #2
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

    I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

    That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.

    We run the ball plenty. Complaining about "WHY DIDN'T WE RUN IT THERE" is now just second guessing with the benefit of hindsight, almost exclusively.

  3. #3
    One-armed Knife Sharpener Iamtdg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mschmidt64 View Post
    At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

    I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

    That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.

    We run the ball plenty. Complaining about "WHY DIDN'T WE RUN IT THERE" is now just second guessing with the benefit of hindsight, almost exclusively.
    How many times has the play sequence gone: run for 4, run for 4, pass with 2 yards to go? It's infuriating and extremely predictable? They will have to fix that shit or we are in for another frustrating year.
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  4. #4
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iamtdg View Post
    How many times has the play sequence gone: run for 4, run for 4, pass with 2 yards to go? It's infuriating and extremely predictable? They will have to fix that shit or we are in for another frustrating year.
    I agree. And last year it trended down to "Run for 3" or "Run for 2" a little more than we'd like as well.

    Fact is, we need to be more pass happy, period.

    Of course, that's gonna mean throwing on some "obvious" run downs here or there. You can't complain when we don't run on a third and 2 then, occasionally. There has to be some leeway for calls that go against obvious situations. And then when they motion Zeke out wide and it's empty backfield before the snap, that's within the playcaller's prerogative.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Cowboysrock55's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mschmidt64 View Post
    At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

    I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

    That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.
    Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute. It's sort of a feel thing. And I get why they love running on first down with Zeke all the time. You almost always get 3 or 4 yards on first down. Especially in 2016 which is what sets up the nice second and third downs of 6 or shorter which makes it easier on Dak. I'd be curious to see our run rates on third down because I kind of feel like we lean pass way too often on third down when it's third and less than 4.

    I also think teams study these tendencies. So while it worked great in 2016 teams realize how heavily we lean towards run on first down and they adjust. Which is why in 2017 it didn't work nearly as well. We need to get back to more of a balanced attack on every down. Heck on first down just do some easy 5 or 6 yard passing stuff. You don't even have to take shots down field. Just get the ball into some of your great athletes hands and let them make a play. That short pass might turn into a big play.

  6. #6
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cowboysrock55 View Post
    Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute.
    That's literally about 70% of the problems I have with the Garrett complaints, and why I always seem like I'm sticking up for him. Most of my objections are from that.

  7. #7
    One-armed Knife Sharpener Iamtdg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cowboysrock55 View Post
    Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute. It's sort of a feel thing. And I get why they love running on first down with Zeke all the time. You almost always get 3 or 4 yards on first down. Especially in 2016 which is what sets up the nice second and third downs of 6 or shorter which makes it easier on Dak. I'd be curious to see our run rates on third down because I kind of feel like we lean pass way too often on third down when it's third and less than 4.

    I also think teams study these tendencies. So while it worked great in 2016 teams realize how heavily we lean towards run on first down and they adjust. Which is why in 2017 it didn't work nearly as well. We need to get back to more of a balanced attack on every down. Heck on first down just do some easy 5 or 6 yard passing stuff. You don't even have to take shots down field. Just get the ball into some of your great athletes hands and let them make a play. That short pass might turn into a big play.
    Give me a few and I think I can get you this stat. Pro Football Reference's website is having issues right now.
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  8. #8
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    I'd be curious to know the entire's league's pass rate on third and four or less, compared to ours.

  9. #9
    Senior Member mschmidt64's Avatar
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    To be fair, third and four is really pretty uniformly a passing down.

    Can you look at third and three or less for us and the league?

  10. #10
    One-armed Knife Sharpener Iamtdg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mschmidt64 View Post
    To be fair, third and four is really pretty uniformly a passing down.

    Can you look at third and three or less for us and the league?
    Yeah, hold on a sec. I have been selecting yards gained instead of yards to go. Let me fix it and this thread.
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