Sturm: Cowboys Draft Digest: Vol 1 – Wide Receivers

Cotton

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[h=1]Cowboys Draft Digest: Vol 1 – Wide Receivers

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By Bob Sturm 2 hours ago





Each week during the buildup to the NFL Draft, we will take a look at around 5-6 prospects at a given position. The hope is to cover all of the potential candidates at what we perceive as the Cowboys' positions of greatest need in Rounds 1-3, using about 200 snaps of the most recent college tape from each of the prospects. I am certainly not an NFL scout, but I have found over the years that much can be learned from giving each player a couple hours and really studying how he might fit at the next level. With a little luck, we will be plenty familiar with the options when the draft arrives in late April.


This week, let's look at wide receivers. The Cowboys' receiving group hasn't changed much in several years — Dez Bryant has been the #1, Terrance Williams the #2, and Cole Beasley the #3 since 2013. There has been no real evolution whatsoever to the group. Add in Jason Witten at TE and you can certainly make the case that the team must view the targets available to Dak Prescott in 2018 as “could use a significant upgrade” in terms of juice, separation, and simple play-making. If the scheme has become stale, and the route options for each of these targets predictable, then the team is not doing its job in assisting its young QB's development and trying to make the offense much more dynamic.


So, regardless of the ultimate decisions on keeping those three together or not, it sure seems time to inject some youth and electric traits into this mix. Ryan Switzer was chosen in the fourth round last year in a curious selection since it didn't really address any purpose other than punt returns and Cole Beasley injury insurance. Brice Butler is a free agent and desires to start somewhere. We can be cynical about that idea, but it would be difficult to blame him for wanting a real chance to pass Williams on the depth chart after three seasons of watching him.


Sometimes, all you need is some fresh blood in the mix. And here are five of the best wide receivers in this crop — all likely to go quickly in the NFL Draft.
[h=3]Calvin Ridley — Alabama — 6-1 — 190[/h] Positives: Ridley is widely thought of as the best receiving prospect in this entire draft and has been considered one of the most dangerous players in college football since he arrived at Alabama three seasons ago. He has a rare combination of great speed and phenomenal route-running which offers him what every NFL team most desires — separation. He gets that with ease and has an elusiveness in the open field that surely makes up for any questions with his concerns. Ridley also catches everything — great hands. He is electric and is thought to have plenty of positive intangibles as well.

Ridley has no trouble taking the top off the defense if the safety gets distracted.



Concerns: There are very few, to be honest. He is 23 years old and will turn 24 during his rookie season. When you are dealing with a first-round pick and their five-year window, this could suggest by the time his rookie deal expires, he might not be the same player, but that should probably be the thought process when drafting skill position players up high anyway. His irrational confidence at times causes him to lose yardage because he will definitely run backwards looking for a bigger hole elsewhere. Production is not terribly mind-blowing, but when one considers his QB and game situations, that is easily rationalized.


Overall: Ridley can be a slot superstar for years to come. He can run the full route tree and run it well. There seem to be no holes to concern a team because when he pairs with a proper NFL QB, the sky should be the limit for Ridley, a clear first-round player.

Ridley has an elite combination of route-separation and open field elusiveness.
[h=3]Christian Kirk — Texas A&M — 5-11, 200[/h] Positives: Kirk shares plenty of similarities with Ridley when you consider the issues with QB play and the thought that the first time we see his full potential might be his rookie season in the NFL. Ridley runs better routes and is taller, but Kirk is younger, stronger, and offers a kick- and punt-return component that should be a real factor moving forward. If your offense wants juice, Kirk is the type of player to grab. He constantly is running away from people and seldom goes down easily. He appears plenty sturdy over the middle, which is a very important trait at the next level. He can definitely win in the red zone, too.

Kirk is a threat to take a kick back for a touchdown at any moment.



Concerns: The best question about Kirk that is whether he can play as an outside receiver at the next level. He didn't do that at Texas A&M, so everything is a projection. Another consideration is that the NFL is certainly phasing out kick returns as quickly as possible, so we must remember to adjust our valuation with that.


Overall: In a league where we have seen players like Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate succeed on Sundays, there is no question Kirk has plenty of upside and electricity. His versatility will need to be proven, but when it comes to checking the boxes of a passing league where elusiveness and juice against the always-athletic defenses they face, Kirk is another guy that will go quickly. I have a first/second grade on Kirk, but I expect he is gone on Day 1.

Kirk goes vertical from tight splits and it is over.
[h=3]Courtland Sutton — SMU — 6-4, 215[/h] Positives: Sutton is the rare big guy who doesn't move like a big guy. He is a very fluid athlete for his size, and this makes him a real mismatch issue for any corner. He is a very big target and that makes him a rarity high in this draft, as most of this year's elite crop is short of 6 feet. He wins in the red zone with size and can pretty much run all of the Tight End routes when you need something on third down or in the end zone. Has a basketball background, and there is not a person who would say a bad thing about Sutton from an intangible standpoint. He works his tail off and is quite likable.

Sutton is just too big and strong in jump ball situations against most corners.



Concerns: He didn't face press coverage much, and also when you play in the offense he did, there will always be questions about how much of the route tree and overall route-running techniques does he have as it pertains to what the next level will offer. Teams that had the talent and the scheme, like TCU, were able to take him out of the SMU gameplan, but it could definitely be argued that he lacked strong QB play for much of his stay and therefore will benefit from some better throws when covered tight. He did battle some drops at times, so that will need to be further examined.


Overall: I really like Sutton after some initial skepticism, though I am not sure I like him for every scheme and situation. For instance, I think he might be an odd fit in Dallas initially as I believe they are targeting “separation” more than size in this draft, and I think he would offer some redundancies with Bryant early on. But, because of his traits and his overall package, this is another player I think I would rank in the second round (despite knowing full well that someone is likely to pull the trigger in the first).

Sutton's ability to high-point the ball is shown again and again in his tape.
[h=3]Anthony Miller — Memphis — 5-11, 190[/h] Positives: Miller is an incredibly productive prospect who has had to scrap along the way as a walk-on and an undersized receiver who drew plenty of doubt. He feeds off it, and you see him compete at one of those levels that make people think Steve Smith. That is dangerous, because Smith is a probable Hall of Famer and his name gets thrown around way too often in draft circles anytime a young man emerges who is undersized and competitive. Miller's routes are really great, and he is not going to allow himself to be covered 1-on-1. He has a real edge about him and fights through traffic very well.

Because of his array of routes, Miller, right slot, sets up his man shallow and blows by deep.



Concerns: If there are concerns, they are easy for me to get past. He is actually older than Calvin Ridley by two months — he will be 24 this October. His hands are quite good, but he will occasionally display some mind-wandering that might lead to a drop. He missed 2014 with a shoulder issue, but that was a long time ago.


Overall: This is my guy. He is as fun a prospect as I have watched for this draft, and I must confess that there is little I will offer you that won't appear to be glowing. I think he would be perfect underneath but can also go vertically and win with regularity. If I am going to take a smaller WR, I need one that has an aggressive disposition underneath. I have Miller as a first/second and would be quite fired up if the Cowboys could find him available on Day 2. Probably a long shot.

Miller can run shallow all day and then when trap is set he takes it vertical.
[h=3]James Washington — Oklahoma State — 5-11, 210[/h] Positives: Washington was one of the most dangerous vertical threats in college football. His per-reception averages over the last three seasons have been 20.5, 19.4, and 20.9. That 20.3 yards per catch since 2015 is the highest of any Power-5 receiver with at least 100 catches — by a mile. He is a dominant big-play receiver, which is somewhat rare for a smaller receiver, but in that offense and with that QB, he showed he won't let a big play be missed. His arms are very long, so he can still win on contested catches and has made some fantastic plays in big games. He also runs stops and comebacks well — both big in the Cowboys playbook. Very strong and ready to run block. I certainly can't forget how great he looked against Colorado's Chidobe Awuzie in the 2016 Alamo Bowl (although Awuzie was battling turf toe).

Washington may have some issues, but nobody hit more deep home runs at Power 5 level.



Concerns: The concerns are always going to be about his route tree, which is always the rap on receivers from his scheme. His route precision and release against coverage are going to offer some skepticism. In fairness, it is more than just a stereotype, as there are times where you wonder about his ability to get separation on routes that aren't verticals.


Overall: This man will absolutely take the top off the defense. He has confidence and he should. He showed up and played well at the Senior Bowl and that definitely helped his case, despite his measurements dropping him well below 6-feet. I would not be shocked if Dallas locks in on Washington and targets him in Round 2 — despite his potential redundancy with what they currently have. A second-round grade is a good spot for him.

For Washington, outside-right, it starts with a clean release with a corner up in his face.



P.S. — If you don't see your “pet cat” this week, Michael Gallup fans, we will throw five more at you here in a week or so. We plan on going 10-15 deep to cover rounds 1-3. Since 2013, the NFL has averaged 12.6 receivers selected in the top 100 picks.
And the Cowboys will definitely need one.
 

Simpleton

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While Ridley is the best WR in the draft I'd really prefer to grab a guy in the 2nd or 3rd.

Wouldn't complain about him in the 1st necessarily but I don't think he's going to ever going to be anything more than a solid number 1/excellent number 2 type.
 

Cowboysrock55

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While Ridley is the best WR in the draft I'd really prefer to grab a guy in the 2nd or 3rd.

Wouldn't complain about him in the 1st necessarily but I don't think he's going to ever going to be anything more than a solid number 1/excellent number 2 type.
I really like Ridley and would be thrilled taking him in the first. But I'm also totally ok with taking a defensive stud in the first and drafting like 2 mid round guys. The strength of this WR class in my opinion is more in the second or third round area. Which is why I think the third is a perfect place to snag a WR. And preferably get another one in the fourth on someone who sort of falls through the cracks.

It all depends on who is left at 19 though. I've got a group of guys that I'd like there. Ridley is part of it. But ultimately I just hope one of that group of guys is still around at 19. There are some scenarios that have none of those guys left.
 

Angrymesscan

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How come no one mentions Chark?
Physically he's tall and fast, comes from a system that has spit-out good to great WR lately... Yet there's no love.
His stats weren't great, but that whole team hasn't been much lately.
 

Cowboysrock55

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How come no one mentions Chark?
Physically he's tall and fast, comes from a system that has spit-out good to great WR lately... Yet there's no love.
His stats weren't great, but that whole team hasn't been much lately.
Reminds me a lot of Terrance Williams. I think he lets some balls get into his body. Similar size and speed. He is a guy that can have a great game but disappear the next week. Had an awesome Senior Bowl game but was very inconsistent in practice the entire week. I don't dislike him but I don't know that he is my favorite in the second/third round either.
 

Angrymesscan

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Reminds me a lot of Terrance Williams. I think he lets some balls get into his body. Similar size and speed. He is a guy that can have a great game but disappear the next week. Had an awesome Senior Bowl game but was very inconsistent in practice the entire week. I don't dislike him but I don't know that he is my favorite in the second/third round either.
IDK, TW was always a 4.5, this guy is expected to run under 4.4...
 

Cowboysrock55

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IDK, TW was always a 4.5, this guy is expected to run under 4.4...
I mean if Chark runs a 4.3 something forty I'd probably want to go back and see more. I didn't see that type of deep speed on the field but LSU's pass offense sucked so I may have missed some of it. I just didn't see the separation that goes with that kind of speed. And his hands worry me too much.
 

Cotton

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How come no one mentions Chark?
Physically he's tall and fast, comes from a system that has spit-out good to great WR lately... Yet there's no love.
His stats weren't great, but that whole team hasn't been much lately.
He was asked who the most underrated WR is.

 

ravidubey

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How come no one mentions Chark?
Physically he's tall and fast, comes from a system that has spit-out good to great WR lately... Yet there's no love.
His stats weren't great, but that whole team hasn't been much lately.
Will be very interested to see his 40 time and think he could bring some outside speed to this team on the plays where corners don't shove his lanky ass to the ground.
 

lostxn

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Christian Kirk — Texas A&M — 5-11, 200
Positives: Kirk shares plenty of similarities with Ridley when you consider the issues with QB play and the thought that the first time we see his full potential might be his rookie season in the NFL. Ridley runs better routes and is taller, but Kirk is younger, stronger, and offers a kick- and punt-return component that should be a real factor moving forward.
If your offense wants juice, Kirk is the type of player to grab.
He constantly is running away from people and seldom goes down easily. He appears plenty sturdy over the middle, which is a very important trait at the next level. He can definitely win in the red zone, too.

Kirk is a threat to take a kick back for a touchdown at any moment.


Just saying
 

Simpleton

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I've said it before, while I think Ridley is the best WR, I don't think Kirk is that far behind and I'd rather roll the dice on his explosiveness/ability after the catch. He's also like 3 years younger.
 

lostxn

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I've said it before, while I think Ridley is the best WR, I don't think Kirk is that far behind and I'd rather roll the dice on his explosiveness/ability after the catch. He's also like 3 years younger.
I bet he runs near a 4.3. Won't make it out of the first round. I suspect.
 

lostxn

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Yeah I think he is clearly the number 2 WR in this class.
I agree with you but there is quite a bit of debate going into the combine. Brugler has him third behind DJ Moore. Sutton seems to be plummeting a bit, interestingly. He might be around in the 2nd if Brugler's grades are right.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I agree with you but there is quite a bit of debate going into the combine. Brugler has him third behind DJ Moore. Sutton seems to be plummeting a bit, interestingly. He might be around in the 2nd if Brugler's grades are right.
I think Sutton is definitely not a first rounder any more. But some combine studs will jump into the first of this draft.
 

lostxn

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I think Sutton is definitely not a first rounder any more. But some combine studs will jump into the first of this draft.
Sutton is a big, big receiver. He looks like Owens but I doubt he runs like him (4.4).
 
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