Sturm: Garrett Overview - 6 Years of Data

NoDak said:

Ayuh.

http://dccforums.com/showthread.php?248-Sturm-Garrett-Overview-6-Years-of-Data&p=9453&viewfull=1#post9453

Click to expand...

Damn, I missed that.

skidadl said:

Am I the only one that zips right through those mega posts without even reading them? Yet I know exactly what they say.

Click to expand...

I'm gonna break down this article a little more cause I think that will help make what is being said a little more clear. Unless it was by accident, I have not removed any of Bob's commentary, so I am not "hiding" any points he might make about Garrett's schemes here. I characterize everything he says below.

Garrett Overview - 6 Years of Data

I have been meaning to write something in follow up to the Garrett story I issued last week about the relative merits of the "Jason Garrett offense" and I thought today was as good as any. In fact, I would like to combine it with the requests of tweets like this one:

any chance of that decoding Garrett over his whole time in Dallas being on the way?

I think that this is an excellent idea, but understand in doing so, we have to actually have a plan going in that will help us not cause an avalanche of numbers that signify nothing.

That aforementioned story from last week focused on the premise that although Jason Garrett's claims are technically correct - that Dallas was amongst the league leaders in offense in 2012 - the data does not provide the necessary context that would reflect my view - that Dallas' offense was both unreliable and frankly, at times disastrous for a team with post-season ambitions.

How can it be both? Can an offense be productive relative to the rest of the league and still not be practically effective in relation to its own goal of winning 10 games and being in the tournament at year's end?

I say, yes. And I bet Jason Garrett would, too, if he wasn't feeling like he had to defend himself to a mob of reporters who might vote him out of office if they had the power to do so.

2012 was the 6th year of the "Jason Garrett offense". Unfortunately, my database of logging every single offensive snap by personnel grouping and formation only dates back to 2008, and I am not sure I have the time or resources to ever log the entire 2007 season (if you are interested, be my guest).

However, the raw data on a year-by-year basis looks like this:

OK, that is already a lot of data to consider and I realize that I have to be careful not to lose the largest part of the audience here, but look at two things in particular above.

First, look at the raw numbers for both rush attempts and pass attempts for each year. It went from 43%/57% run/pass balance in 2007 to 32%/68% in 2012. That is going from a pass-heavy offense to a nearly pass-exclusive offense in a rather gradual fashion over 6 years.

Next, look at the yards per attempt in the passing game. To compare the 2007 Cowboys to the 2012 Cowboys is not a fair comparison because there are certainly 100 variables that must be considered, but the biggest one that jumps out at you is that the 2012 pass-happy offense found 626 more yards of passing offense than the 2007 version, yet needed 138 more passes to do so. Basically, they needed almost 5 games worth of passes to get 600 yards. So, they pass way more, they just don't accomplish much more.

And yet, the 2012 version can claim that they actually out-gained the 2007 version. Which offense would you want?

Click to expand...

Ok, so far, Bob has pointed out:

1) That he believes the offense was both highly productive AND fatally inconsistent in 2012 (I would agree -- how can you not?).
2) That we required more plays in 2012 to gain the same yards in 2007 (I agree that 2012 was our weakest year in terms of offensive consistency in general).

However, he has not addressed the "why" yet. Only the what.

So I think we'd all agree though that the Cowboys were not efficient in 2012, and that efficiency extended not just to red zone scoring but also moving the ball in general, and that we have gotten progressively worse over the years.

Now, back to the running game. Below is a sheet from the good folks at Stats. They have an amazing ability to sort things any way you like, so I thought it would be important to demonstrate how little Jason Garrett offenses run the football. So, I asked them to sort the rushing attack of the 53 Dallas Cowboys teams since the team became a franchise in 1960.

Here is what they found:

It demonstrates that the 2012 Cowboys had the 52nd best season in Cowboys history in running the football. Technically, they had the worst rushing season in Cowboys history on a per-game basis, but the 1960 Cowboys finish last due to a 12 game season. Had they 16 weeks, we are reasonably sure that the '60 Cowboys might have been able to find 217 more yards on the ground.

Think about that. Of all of the Cowboys teams ever, you might have just witnessed the single worst year of rushing the ball. Brutal on every level.

In fact, if you wish, the Cowboys seasons of running the football with Jason Garrett as the offensive architect rank 52nd, 35th, 37th, 20th, 42nd, and 40th in Cowboys history. That's right. His best season is only 20th best in the history of the franchise. And before you tell me it is because the league has changed to a passing league, explain this: The New England Patriots (perhaps the most pass-first team in the NFL, right?) have run the ball 398 more times than the Cowboys in the Garrett-era. And as you can see, 398 represents an entire season of Garrett rushing attempts. I will repeat: the Patriots have run an entire year's worth of rushing plays more than Garrett in 6 seasons.

Click to expand...

Ok. Once again, Bob is documenting "what" has happened, not "why." He does not explain why he thinks our rushing attempts have decreased so drastically in number. I suppose one could infer that Garrett is pass-happy -- and I would agree that he is. However, given that he started out with more balance, and as the OL got worse he has proceeded to have less balance, I would argue that it's cause and effect. However, Bob does not assign blame either way, he just points out that it has happened.

I had some people take issue with my blog post from last week as they claimed that yardage can be ranked free of context because the Cowboys were still in many of those games that I called garbage time. I cited the Cowboys continuous scrapping of their game-plan in many games and resorting to an elongated 2-minute drill that employed a personnel grouping that is pass-exclusive and plays against defenses that had 20+ point leads that were certainly off and soft and willing to concede yardage in exchange for time on the clock elapsing.

I will concede that it is difficult to define "garbage time" sometimes. Was it garbage time when the Cowboys were down 23-0 to the Giants at halftime? Or, 28-3 to the Redskins at the half on Thanksgiving? And if so, didn't the Cowboys almost win the Giants game and at least make the Redskins sweat a bit?

I would say that arguing this, though, is missing the point of trying to identify the Cowboys offensive ability in 2012.

Click to expand...

This part is slightly off topic. Commentary not needed.

My point, would be this: In 2012, the Cowboys' would spend all week designing a game plan that they thought would best work against their opponents. Then, at game-time, they would find that their game plan was completely ineffective and scrap it. This would happen at halftime sometimes, 3rd Quarter other times, and even sometimes well before halftime. When they would scrap their game plan (a balanced attack with multiple personnel groupings and formations) and go exclusively to a 2-minute drill offense that was 100% shotgun and 100% 11 personnel, they would then find the ability to get yards and ultimately, points.

The score in the game here is interesting, but not the trigger. The trigger is that moment when Garrett and/or Romo says to the other, "this isn't working. Let's do what we know works."

Click to expand...

Ok. So Bob also seems to be saying that the run-pass inbalance, particularly in 2012, was due to the game plan getting scrapped and Romo playing street ball. This led to pass-heavy attacks as Romo would basically run the 2 minute offense for large parts of the game, and thus, the run was abandoned.

Here Bob first hints at basically saying, "The schemes were not working all season. The only thing that DID work was the 2 minute offense."

And that happened over and over and over in 2012. Especially at home. The following is a look at the amount of time the Cowboys had the ball with the lead in their 8 home games. The information is accurate and impossible to believe.

That is right. 36 minutes and 36 seconds the entire year. This is a team that fell behind early almost every single home game. Why? Because their game-plan week after week was not working.

Click to expand...

Bob just expands on the data. No commentary.

Why? I could offer 100 ideas. But, the point is, they weren't working. And, from there, when Romo and Garrett would take it and throw it in the trash, that is when the Cowboys were able to turn these games into competitive contests by going back to Shotgun-11 personnel. Then, and only then, was this offense able to get anything done.

Under center? Rushing the ball? Declaring run and getting a tough yard? Under center and run play action and hit one over the top? In all of these scenarios, 2012 was about as bad a year as Garrett has on record.

Click to expand...

Argh.

No, we want the "why" Bob. The Why is important. He still hasn't really begun to offer an explanation.

We all agree that the schemes weren't working. We want to know if the schemes weren't working because they were deficient, or because the personnel was deficient and no scheme could work.

Let me now show you how much they used their 2-minute/3rd Down offense in comparison to other seasons under Garrett to prove that it was pretty much their identity in 2012.

If that doesn't prove it, I don't know what would. Admittedly, I am only providing data here and not solutions. But, look at that data. This year, the Cowboys found 47% of their snaps and 53% of their yards from just scrapping their plans and running the same 8 plays over and over again from their 2-minute/3rd Down offense.

Click to expand...

Ok, once more, Bob is proving that the schemes didn't work.

However, he is even admitting at this point (when he says "Admittedly, I am only providing data here and not solutions") that he is still not telling us WHY the offensive schemes didn't work, only that they didn't.

I think we would all agree on that. 2012 was Garrett's most unproductive offensive year.

This leads to bigger issues - such as being one of the easiest teams in the league to game plan against and also putting all of your success on your QB. So much for "Romo-Friendly". Now, it is "Romo only" and one of those years where you wonder what might have happened if he got hurt.

Click to expand...

Here we go, though. The one-dimensional nature of the 2 minute offense "leads to" making us easier to game plan against. This is because the 2-minute drill offense is so predictable itself. As such, no one is saying we should go into a game planning to run the 2 minute offense as the base plan.

So Bob.... should the Cowboys have gone into the game running the 2 minute offense the whole time? According to this, no. Doing that makes us even easier to defend.

So anyone who says that the Cowboys should have run only what was working (the 2 minute offense).... we know to laugh them off stage. Got it.

But, think about what this says. This says that all of that film breakdown and game planning all week was largely an exercise in futility. They keep coming back to the only thing they could do.

How do you fix it? It starts with fixing your offensive line so that you can actually depend on them for something once in a while.

Click to expand...

AH HA!

The very first time Bob gets to a solution. This is the FIRST TIME in the article he says what needs to change. He does not say that Garrett needs to change his schemes. He does not say that it is hopeless as long as Garrett is running the offense.

He is saying, the schemes will work better if you fix the OL. That the OL is the main problem.

But, we will continue to visit about that as we go. I just wanted to demonstrate a clear explanation on how yards do not tell the story. One team can gain 5,800 yards in a traditional way with a balanced and unpredictable offense and be efficient and effective. Another can gain 5,900 yards and be inefficient and predictable while being way out of balance.

Click to expand...

Point demonstrated, Bob. Yes, we can all agree that even though the 2012 Cowboys racked up the yards, they were not efficient as they were in 2007 when they racked up yards.

But when you had to offer a solution, we saw the one you offered first: Fix the OL.

Both will be amongst the league leaders in production and yet we will know better if we were watching carefully and not just believing what we are told.

The Cowboys simply must get back to an offense where they are using S11 as the frosting on their cake. But, in 2012, they were trying to get by on eating just frosting with no cake at all.

Click to expand...

So..... Bob is saying.... the Cowboys need to get back to running their base schemes more? YES!

Bob is saying here that the inconsistency and imbalance is due to the scrapping of the game plans which were not working, which led to us being even more one-dimensional. His solution is saying get back to running schemes that feature a balanced attack.

You'd think, if it was his hypothesis that Garrett's base schemes are not functional based on poor coaching, he would have taken this opportunity to explain that. Or at least he would have stated that going back to the base set won't be effective either because the schemes are flawed.

But he doesn't do that. He says that we need to return to our base offense instead of running the one-dimensional spread offense. And the ONLY time he suggests what will accomplish this, is to say that the OL needs to be fixed, so that the coach can trust it to run basic plays.

In an article where he goes to great lengths to document the struggles of the offense, the only solution he puts forth is.... fix the OL.

That's G,S,M, my friends.

And it gave everyone indigestion.

Click to expand...

No doubt.

Garrett sucks at offensive game planning.

You were lying about that whole finally getting some pussy story, weren't you.

You can admit it. You're amongst friends.

Yucatan Potato Salad

•6 russet potatoes, peeled and cubed

•2 fresh poblano chile peppers

•3 hard cooked eggs, chopped

•1/2 cup chopped celery

•1/2 cup chopped white onion

•3 medium sweet pickles, chopped

•12 green olives, sliced

•1/4 cup lime juice

•1 cup vegetable oil

•1 teaspoon salt

•1/2 teaspoon ground black pepper

•1 teaspoon mustard powder

Directions

1.Preheat the oven to 400 degrees F (200 degrees C). Place the potatoes into a saucepan, and fill with enough water to cover. Bring to a boil and cook until tender, about 10 minutes. Drain.

2.Place the peppers into the oven so that they sit directly on the rack. Roast, turning every 10 minutes or so, until evenly charred. Place in a paper bag to sweat, then remove the peel when they are cool enough to handle. Remove the stem and seeds, and chop.

3.In a large bowl, combine the still warm potatoes, peppers, eggs, celery, onion, sweet pickles and olives. In a smaller bowl, whisk together the lime juice, vegetable oil, salt, pepper and mustard powder. I like to use a high speed mixing wand to help it emulsify. Pour over the potato salad, and stir to coat. Adjust seasoning to taste and serve.

The sad part is that Schmitty is looking for someone to knuckle bump with at work because he just dropped a whole bunch of knowledge and feels good about it.

Instead he only receives acclaim from the fat girl in accounting.

Carp said:

The sad part is that Schmitty is looking for someone to knuckle bump with at work because he just dropped a whole bunch of knowledge and feels good about it.

Instead he only receives acclaim from the fat girl in accounting.

Click to expand...

You saw it as acclaim? I thought she was telling him to stick his thumb up his butt. "I've told you a thousand times, even if you keep giving me chocolates you're not getting any of this!!!"

So...
Recap, RHG sets his scheme for the game we suck ass, we throw it away and play street ball we have a shot... Same team with same deficiencies...
Sounds like we have a mastermind OC...

Angrymesscan said:

So...
Recap, RHG sets his scheme for the game we suck ass, we throw it away and play street ball we have a shot... Same team with same deficiencies...
Sounds like we have a mastermind OC...

Click to expand...

You're just not getting it.

Schmitty, could you make sure the perturbedbeaner here fully understands exactly what it is you're trying to say? kthnxbia

NoDak said:

You're just not getting it.

Schmitty, could you make sure the perturbedbeaner here fully understands exactly what it is you're trying to say? kthnxbia

Click to expand...

He should try reading any of the posts again. They address his point pretty directly.

NoDak said:

You're just not getting it.

Schmitty, could you make sure the perturbedbeaner here fully understands exactly what it is you're trying to say? kthnxbia

Click to expand...

Must be a language barrier thing...

NoDak said:

You were lying about that whole finally getting some pussy story, weren't you.

You can admit it. You're amongst friends.

Click to expand...

I don't know why we need to have an offensive coach who doesn't want offensive linemen any more than Jerry does. As Booze keeps pointing out, our big offensive acquisitions not named Tyron Smith have all been receivers, TEs, and Felix Jones and Garrett was there signing off on all of it.

If he needs someone to overrule him to give him the personnel he needs, then he clearly needs to be coaching elsewhere.

mschmidt64 said:

He should try reading any of the posts again. They address his point pretty directly.

Click to expand...

Clay_Allison said:

I don't know why we need to have an offensive coach who doesn't want offensive linemen any more than Jerry does. As Booze keeps pointing out, our big offensive acquisitions not named Tyron Smith have all been receivers, TEs, and Felix Jones and Garrett was there signing off on all of it.

If he needs someone to overrule him to give him the personnel he needs, then he clearly needs to be coaching elsewhere.

Click to expand...

Well, in a normal situation that wouldn't be a problem. A competent GM would realize he needs OLs and give them to him.

Here, yes, we need a franchise-builder HC like Parcells, if we can find one.

mschmidt64 said:

Well, in a normal situation that wouldn't be a problem. A competent GM would realize he needs OLs and give them to him.

Here, yes, we need a franchise-builder HC like Parcells, if we can find one.

Click to expand...

Or just a guy with the right (trenches first) approach to offense and an eye for linemen. Doesn't have to be an all timer or even the HC, but the top offensive guy needs to stand on the table for guards and tackles, not just "weapons" for his passing game.