Sturm: Inventory of a pivotal offseason - Top issues the Cowboys need to address

Cotton

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[h=1]Inventory of a pivotal offseason: Top issues the Cowboys need to address
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By Bob Sturm 3 hours ago





As we begin to consider the Cowboys' vital 2018 offseason, we must establish the same priority list and parameters they will. Change is inevitable in the NFL, and the teams that handle the change with the proper balance between calm evaluation and aggressive determination to improve have a chance to reap the benefits by September.


These last four seasons have been frustrating and disappointing for the franchise, given how strong they have looked for months at a time. The Cowboys' regular-season win total of 38 in that span is surpassed by only a few NFC teams: Seattle with 41, and then Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona, and Minnesota all tied at 39. Basically, during a transitional period from a franchise QB to a young replacement, they have kept pace or beaten nearly every team they compete with in the entire conference — including all three division rivals (Philadelphia: 37; Washington: 28; New York: 26).


That definitely doesn't make anyone feel better about the state of affairs — especially given that the Eagles just had a Super Bowl parade despite an injured list that puts every Cowboys excuse of the last four years to shame.


But, as we stand here today, most Cowboys fans will tell you that either the Cowboys need a new coach, a new offensive coordinator, a new QB, or a new GM. In fact, many believe they should check all four of those boxes.


That said, fans don't get to make significant decisions for this franchise (thankfully). We know a few things about the 2018 Dallas Cowboys that will absolutely, positively not change whether anyone likes it or not from the 2017 Dallas Cowboys:



  • Jason Garrett will be the head coach
  • Scott Linehan will be the offensive coordinator
  • Dak Prescott will be the starting QB
  • Jerry Jones will carry the title of GM

I could make a very strong argument that Garrett has been given long enough to produce some real tangible postseason results and that Linehan's style does not exactly mesh with the 1992 Cowboys blueprint the team seem obsessed with re-creating, but the Cowboys feel like they aren't far away and that this is their best way to proceed. Prescott must rightfully be given much longer to develop his ability, and it would certainly be advisable for those who evaluate his play to properly weight his first 24 games, which included All-Pros in RB Ezekiel Elliott and LT Tyron Smith for most of them — to the same degree as his last eight, which included nine missed games between those two remarkable talents.


That said, there are some very pressing concerns that must be addressed before the summer vacations are taken. Here are the first 10 that come to mind:



  • UFA DE Demarcus Lawrence must be signed or given the franchise tag of about $17M
  • Two other UFAs were key 2017 starters — LB Anthony Hitchens and LG Jonathan Cooper
  • WR Dez Bryant's contract and presence is currently being closely reviewed
  • Cap room (about $20M) is extremely tight, making all of the above decisions even more difficult
  • Deciding fates of several veterans for potential cap relief opportunities
  • Adjusting and updating the offense to accommodate Prescott's skill set for more production
  • DL David Irving, who is as talented as any defender after Lawrence, may be on his way out
  • Finding a long-term solution for All-Pro RG Zack Martin's next contract
  • Using 10 draft picks to supplement a roster that likely won't have outside free-agency options
  • Deciding the ideal position for DB Byron Jones and his contract option for his fifth season

Did we forget anything? Probably, but those were the top 10. Imagine, evaluation of Jaylon Smith and the status of Randy Gregory didn't even crack the list. (EDITOR'S NOTE: Nor the growing trend of Cowboys pass-catchers releasing mixtapes)


Each of these issues — and many more — will be the basis for many of my offseason projects here at The Athletic, but for now, let's make sure we touch on some of the bigger ones in paragraph form. Trust me, I will be circling back to most of these as we go with full essays on all of the important components of the larger mosaic.
[h=3]Demarcus Lawrence[/h] There is no choice in the matter, as far as I am concerned, about the future of Lawrence after he put a big 2017 on the books. Well, actually, there is a choice to make, but not the one of whether he is in a Cowboys uniform in 2018. He absolutely must be.


The options: a ridiculous number for a franchise tag of at-or-above $17 million — or a ridiculous number to lock him up on a deal that might be lower in annual average, but much higher in full-guarantee that would range (we assume) between four and six years at roughly $15 million per year. He won't be 26 until April, and guys that get to the QB with the regularity that he does do not hit free agency at this age.


Can he be trusted to continue to deliver seasons like 2017? This has many people skeptical about the timing of the dreaded contract year. They will cite Dez Bryant's 2014 season as a perfect example of a player having his finest year in the coincidental spot of perfect timing.


There are no guarantees ahead (except the money you must guarantee to get the deal done), but there is also no choice in the matter. Further, if you dig several layers deeper than simply adding sack totals, you will find that Lawrence is no one-year wonder. Since 2014 — when the Cowboys traded a second and a third to move up in Round 2 to snag him — he has led the Cowboys in splash plays by a very healthy margin.




Splash plays are my statistic that adds tackles for loss, run stuffs, sacks, hurries that end the play, passes batted down, fumbles forced, and fumbles recovered. In other words, every time a defensive player makes a stop of relevance and importance, he gets a “splash.” And, for a guy like Lawrence, who is a standout versus the pass and the run and who generated more splashes than anyone since his arrival, there is no choice about keeping him. It is just how much you are going to have to pay.

[h=3]Other free-agent decisions[/h] The Cowboys technically have 10 other unrestricted free agents currently on the roster (although Stephen Paea is quite a stretch), but Lawrence is easily the biggest priority and the only one that will have the NFL on pins and needles if the Cowboys allow him to get to the market. That said, we had better not lose sight of a few other notable names that the Cowboys would like to hold on to.


Chief amongst them is another defender who made a fantastic contribution in 2017, LB Anthony Hitchens. The fourth-round pick from Iowa in 2014 did what you would expect a fourth-round pick to do — take a few years to figure out the league and to grow into his role. But, this year as Sean Lee would come and go and as Jaylon Smith would struggle out of the gates with lingering health concerns, Hitchens was vital throughout. You could see the game really slow down for him as he finally was able to attack without hesitation and power through holes to meet runners in the backfield.

He saw the game at a level that suggested Lee had shared a few lessons in recognition and preparation that allow one to be a step ahead of the action rather than trying to catch up in a reactionary rally to the ball.


Pricing for this position is a bit tricky, so projecting his deal is going to be a bit complex. They may need to let him hit the market to find his value, but that can be dangerous. Beyond Hitchens, there is starting LG Jonathan Cooper, but given that the Cowboys pay premium dollars on every other starting offensive lineman (before any adjustments to Zack Martin's deal, they are already down for over $45M on just four starters), I have to believe they want to find a very cheap solution at LG. You simply cannot get away with putting that much money on the offensive line and not be short elsewhere.
[h=3]What to do with Dez Bryant[/h] There is no more explosive topic for the masses than this one. People have strong opinions on the receiver that has been the face of this franchise for many years as the most popular player and the most polarizing presence. I suggested five years ago that his style and personality will be considered “part of the package” until his productivity falls below the threshold of being worthwhile. Then, when the production no longer fulfills the expectations, the rest of the “Dez Bryant Experience” will run its course with the team and the public.


We may be there now. He was paid at the very top of the industry and with 60 percent of his contract expired, still has the third-biggest deal in the league at his position (behind DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones) by guarantees and practical guarantees. Yet, for a myriad of reasons — some his, some well out of his control — his production is nowhere near “top of the industry” since signing his deal. He is tied for 41st in receptions, is 37th in receiving yardage, and tied for 18th in touchdowns since 2015. And, right on schedule, Stephen Jones is talking tough publicly about demeanor, marking the first time in Dez Bryant's Cowboys career that anyone has dared to suggest to the public that they need more from him — or else. I will write a separate piece on this complex decision shortly.
[h=3]The Future of David Irving[/h] This is as frustrating a talk as any out there right now and I invite you to read that separate piece immediately if you so choose. It is yet another pivotal decision that could cause many other moves to happen with its immediate outcome.


As you can surmise, there are plenty of complicated issues for this team to work through. And, frankly, there is plenty to dive into here as we cover the team for you on a daily basis.
Strap in. This is going to be a busy spring at The Star in Frisco.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
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So much for Sturm's articles being easy to format at his new place. I think part of it is vBulletin, though. It won't let me edit it.
 
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