QB Controversy Thread...

Cowboysrock55

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NFL people? Seriously who are all these pundits? I don't view Troy as a serious X's and O's analyst, and I feel he was mainly offering up a quick opinion on TV with Dak performing well in front of him vs any objective comparison with Romo.

This "movement" is from people like Colin Cowherd and others who like to stir things up and Cowboys fans who got sick of being held hostage by Romo's health.

Dak has made plays when he has to, but we can do better than just avoids turnovers at QB.

Looking below at Dak vs. Wentz, it's clear that while Dak is above average in many categories, he's rarely making big throws and behind Wentz in most categories. He's made up for it by being efficient in the intermediate throws and making very few turnovers, but which analysts are seriously arguing that that's better for the team?

You hear media guys repeat stuff about "chemistry", but who exactly is it that Dak has all this on-field chemistry with ... besides Cole Beasley? Witten's per game averages are down from 2014 and Dez's are way down. I will say Terrance Williams has improved since 2014 but his numbers are also in line with last season when basically no one was the QB.

Even Beasley's averages are about the same as 2014, besides YPG of course thanks to the huge increase in targets.


First of all the chart is ridiculous, but no one was talking about Dak vs. Wentz. It's a total different discussion but if you want to talk about that we can. No way in hell looking at the stats that you can really claim that Wentz is performing better.
 

Cowboysrock55

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DAK GOTTA PLAY; TONY GOTTA SIT
C’mon, there’s no real Dallas QB controversy


Jason Reid
BY JASON REID
@JREIDESPN
October 28, 2016

The evidence is in and it is overwhelming. The Dallas Cowboys would be making a Texas-sized mistake if they pulled Dak Prescott as starter, regardless of Tony Romo’s status. Prescott would just be making make another compelling argument Sunday night. If the NFL’s best rookie to this point engineers a victory over the visiting Philadelphia Eagles, owner Jerry Jones would be downright loco to mess with the best thing to happen to his franchise in a long, long, long time.

The NFC East leaders have responded to the efficient, poised-beyond-his-years youngblood better than any Cowboys fan could have possibly envisioned after the team serendipitously drafted Prescott with a fourth-round pick. The Eagles will bring to town a top-notch defense that is coming off a performance that should prompt all opposing signal-callers to tightly strap on their helmets. By balling out against the Cowboys’ formidable division rival, Prescott, whom the team tried not to draft with a fourth-round pick, would strike another blow for the status quo, even with Romo apparently inching closer to being medically cleared to play following his latest major injury.

Not only has Prescott clearly shown he’s that Dude of the future, he’s also The Man right now. With how Prescott has bailed out the ‘Boys, what’s left to discuss?

“He’s the present,” ESPN analyst Ryan Clark said on the phone. “He should continue to be the starting quarterback even when Romo returns. He has been a special guy from his first snap in the preseason. You could just see there was something about him.

“But it was the preseason, so you still had to wait and see. There’s no more question about it now: He can win a lot of games in this league. He’s not just a guy who can manage the offense. He’s much more than that.”

It doesn’t take a quarterback coach to know that Prescott is a baller. In his first six games, Prescott has rattled off an eye-opening list of accomplishments that includes:

Guiding the Cowboys to five consecutive victories;
Directing a fourth-quarter comeback on the road against the Washington Redskins;
Outdueling Aaron Rodgers in a Dallas victory at Lambeau Field;
Leading an offense that is second to none in rushing yards per game, ranks third in total yards per game and seventh in points per game.
Even Prescott’s Eagles counterpart is impressed. Philadelphia rookie quarterback Carson Wentz got to know Prescott a little bit on the pre-draft circuit.

Wentz also has been surprising while being No. 1 on his club’s depth chart all season. After starting 3-0, the Eagles (4-2) are second in the division to the Cowboys. Sunday’s showdown at Jerry World marks the first time since the 1970 merger that two rookie quarterbacks meet with a combined winning percentage of .750 or better (with a minimum of three starts), according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

“It’s exciting. It’s exciting for him, for me,” Wentz told reporters who cover the Cowboys regularly in a conference call Wednesday. “Obviously, [their first matchup is] going to be played up into something. It’s cool to see another young guy like him that.”

Prescott’s individual performance has been equally lit.

He tops all passers with an 82.9 Total Quarterback Rating. Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons is second at 82.0. Prescott attempted 176 passes before he threw an interception. That’s the most pass attempts without an interception to begin an NFL career. Also, only New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has a higher completion percentage (75.2 to 68.7) than Prescott. Just call him the real Willie Beamen.

“He’s done a really good job throughout the season in maintaining his poise, his confidence in his demeanor, no matter what’s happened,” Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick said Wednesday after practice at the team’s opulent new headquarters in Frisco, Texas.

“You saw [it] against Green Bay. He kinda had that first blunder, that first interception, and never blinked. That definitely gives you confidence in believing in what he can do as a player. But also, it’s fun to watch him grow week to week.”

For Beamen, er, Prescott, this week figures to be his toughest test.

Led by standout defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, the Eagles’ defense is third in points per game, and fifth in both yards per game and passing yards per game. That’s all impressive enough. What was really something, though, was how the Eagles went in on the Minnesota Vikings last week.

The Eagles blitzed Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford right out of Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz went after Bradford with an assortment of zone-blitz packages that worked spectacularly. Philadelphia had six sacks and 12 quarterback hits. In three trips to the red zone, the Vikings totaled zero points. Just a straight-up stomping.

Each week, quarterbacks face potentially painful experiences. But, dang, the Eagles are trying to take things to a nightmare level. However, to hear Dallas head coach Jason Garrett tell it, Prescott has got this.

“It starts with his preparation,” said Garrett, who will talk your ear off about all the positive signs Prescott has displayed since his first day on the team.

“He was always ready. Always was able to handle the offense, call plays, handle himself at the line of scrimmage. That was always very impressive, right from the outset. You could tell he was prepared. You could tell it was important to him.

“And then athletically, he’s impressive. He can throw the ball. He can move around. He made some plays early on that made you feel he could see the game, and be instinctive throwing the ball from the pocket.”

He’s also great in the film room. Against the aggressive Eagles, attention to detail is a must. Although Prescott moves much better Bradford, the rookie must also rely on his smarts to stay upright.

Prescott has been putting in extra work to study up on blitzes, and “you become a little familiar with it. I’ve seen it before,” Prescott said of different approaches that Cowboys opponents have used against him.

“You kinda get a feeling during the week, as you’re watching the film, that, hey, ‘I’ve seen this blitz.’ It’s OK. This is what the 49ers did against us. Or this is what the Bears did against us.”

Prescott’s eyes help him. It’s the best part of his game, ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer said.

“The biggest thing for [successful] young quarterbacks is that they have a calmness and a consistency with their eyes,” Dilfer told The Undefeated recently. “Their eyes aren’t ‘busy.’ They start in the right place. They see the right pictures. They don’t see ‘ghosts.’ And with Dak … he just has that calmness and consistency with his eyes.

“He’s looking in the right place at the right time. His feet then ‘marry’ his eyes. Because his eyes are in the right place, his feet tend to follow. … His ball isn’t almost accurate – it’s precise. The ball finishes on the face mask. That tells me that he’s also seeing with eyes the speed, the spacing of the receivers next to the DBs and the splits of the zones. He’s seeing clear pictures, so he’s making precise throws.”

With Prescott at the controls, everything has been picture-perfect at One Cowboys Way. But trouble could be around the bend.

Romo returned to the practice field Wednesday for the first time since training camp, although he was not in uniform and continues to rehabilitate from a compression fracture in his back. In the portion of practice open to the media, the four-time Pro Bowler threw some passes during individual drills and did light work.

No one could deny that Romo is much more experienced than Prescott. And way back in 2014, Romo had the greatest year of his career while leading the Cowboys to the NFC East title. He’s also 36. In his last four games including the preseason, Romo has left three times because of significant injuries that sidelined him for long stretches. At 23, Prescott has youth on his side. He stays on the field. And all he does is win, win, win.

The Cowboys have something great going. It starts at quarterback. Altering that isn’t a risk worth taking. All you have to do is review the evidence.

Jason Reid is the senior NFL writer at The Undefeated. He enjoys watching sports, especially any games involving his son and daughter.
 

ravidubey

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This is exactly the kind of fluff meant to get attention. Real story => "Gasp, don't ruin it, Cowboys!" /gets published

The evidence is in and it is overwhelming.
And we're still waiting to hear it.

Guiding the Cowboys to five consecutive victories;
Directing a fourth-quarter comeback on the road against the Washington Redskins;
Outdueling Aaron Rodgers in a Dallas victory at Lambeau Field;
Leading an offense that is second to none in rushing yards per game, ranks third in total yards per game and seventh in points per game.
Which of these things wouldn't have happened with Romo in and healthy? Out dueling Rodgers had more to do with Rodgers' inability and a broken secondary than Dak. His biggest play happened when the defender fell down. We've had a bit of luck go our way with Dak, but it's not because of Dak.

He tops all passers with an 82.9 Total Quarterback Rating. Prescott attempted 176 passes before he threw an interception. That’s the most pass attempts without an interception to begin an NFL career. Also, only New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has a higher completion percentage (75.2 to 68.7) than Prescott.
First of all WGAS, but even still I contend Romo would have a similar QBR with this protection and the team playing the way it is. He'd also bring experience and big play ability. Some of these close games IMO would be blowouts.

Prescott’s eyes help him. It’s the best part of his game, ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer said.
Tony working defenders with his eyes has always been a huge part of his game. And he's been doing it for years. No way is Dak better at it, that's for sure.

At 23, Prescott has youth on his side. He stays on the field. And all he does is win, win, win.

The Cowboys have something great going. It starts at quarterback. Altering that isn’t a risk worth taking. All you have to do is review the evidence.
This is the crap I'm talking about. Fluff, fluff, fluff.

Yeah we all know Dak is 23 and young, youthful, and full of youth. And he wins, wins, wins!! Now there's some serious analysis.

How about this: with Romo in and healthy, I say Dallas is 6-0. Dak was terrible in the 2nd half vs NY.

"Altering that isn’t a risk worth taking" is a totally false way of looking at things. When has anyone lost a season because they put in a seasoned and superior QB whose only liability (health) has now been erased thanks to Dak?

Sorry but the whole article is written to stir things up, not objectively compare.
 

L.T. Fan

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Thankfully he looks nothing like an inexperienced rookie. And yes I'll trust the analysis of Troy Aikman and the stats Dak is putting up over what some nobody DB from the early 90's 49ers. Cult or not you're in the massive minority among NFL people.
Dak isn't better than Romo. He is younger an exceptional find and probably less likely to be injured but he is a 6 game rookie and not better.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Dak isn't better than Romo. He is younger an exceptional find and probably less likely to be injured but he is a 6 game rookie and not better.
You don't know that. Statistically he is doing things comparable to the best season of Romo's career. So no its not clear that Romo is better. And more importantly the evidence suggests Dak is better for this team as it is currently constructed.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Sorry but the whole article is written to stir things up, not objectively compare.
You don't stir things up by saying what almost every other analyst for the NFL is saying.

If he wanted to stir things up, he'd say something outlandish and different. This on the other hand is what everyone else is saying who hasn't been hiding under a rock.
 

L.T. Fan

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You don't know that. Statistically he is doing things comparable to the best season of Romo's career. So no its not clear that Romo is better. And more importantly the evidence suggests Dak is better for this team as it is currently constructed.
You can't take 6 games and extrapolate them into a 10 year career. It is highly unlikely he will continue to maintain his starting numbers throughout the next 150 games. I hope he can but that is probably not going to happen. Neither can you take 6 games worth of experience and equate that to 10 years playing time. It isn't a reasonable assumption.
 

Cowboysrock55

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By the way, great article on Wentz vs Dak Prescott if you want to see a great breakdown and analysis.

Why Dak Prescott's QBR is so much better than Carson Wentz's
Oct 26, 2016
Hank Gargiulo


Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz have both been winning rookies, but Prescott's performance has been superior. USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire
The raw passing numbers of rookies Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys and Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles look fairly similar:


Prescott: 68.7 completion percentage, 7 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 103.9 passer rating

Wentz: 63.8 completion percentage, 8 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 92.7 passer rating

But through the lens of Total QBR, a significant difference emerges. Prescott leads the league with an 82.9 QBR, while Wentz ranks 29th with a 49.9. Both quarterbacks have been good enough to win (the Cowboys are 5-1 heading into their Sunday night showdown against the 4-2 Eagles), so where do the differences in their performances lie?

Context is key

Total QBR is opponent-adjusted, so a good performance against a bad defense is weighed as such. Wentz's numbers are hurt by the fact that he's faced the easiest set of QBR defenses in the league thus far.

For example, in Week 1, Wentz had an unadjusted QBR of 66.1, which looks pretty good by itself, but if we take into account that it came at home, the opponent was the Cleveland Browns and that it was the second-lowest opponent QBR allowed by the Browns this season, it gets adjusted down to a 53.2 -- just about average. This isn't isolated to just the Browns game. Wentz has the lowest QBR allowed by the Lions and the Redskins as well. A look at the strength of Wentz's performances for each team Philadelphia has played:

WEEK OPPONENT WENTZ RAW QBR RANK AMONG QBS FACED
1 Browns 66.1 6th of 7
2 Bears 58.8 5th of 7
3 Steelers 78.9 2nd of 7
5 Lions 58.9 7th of 7
6 Redskins 30.7 7th of 7
7 Vikings 13.0 4th of 6

Prescott has also faced a fairly easy set of opponents (28th easiest of 31 qualified quarterbacks) but has exceeded what other quarterbacks have done against those defenses:

WEEK OPPONENT PRESCOTT RAW QBR RANK AMONG QBS FACED
1 Giants 60.2 4th of 7
2 Redskins 88.2 2nd of 7
3 Bears 98.8 1st of 7
4 49ers 84.7 2nd of 7
5 Bengals 87.5 1st of 7
6 Packers 70.4 2nd of 6

It's worth noting that the duo shares a pair of common games so far, having both played Washington and Chicago. In both cases, Prescott had a vastly superior raw QBR (98.8 to 58.8 against Chicago and 88.2 to 30.7 against Washington) to Wentz.

Moving the chains on third down

One big spot in which Prescott has separated himself from Wentz is third down. Prescott has the sixth-best raw QBR on third down, with a 72.0, while Wentz ranks 22nd with a 36.8.

The big driver here is their conversion rates when passing. Both have converted their only third-down scramble attempt and have taken five sacks apiece, but when they do throw on that down, Prescott has converted 48 percent of his attempts into first downs, where Wentz has converted only 35 percent of his attempts -- less than the league average of nearly 40 percent.

Overall Prescott is completing 73.1 percent of his third-down pass attempts, best of any quarterback in the league, while Wentz is connecting at a 56.3 percent rate, slightly less than the league average (59.4 percent).


Carson Wentz third-down chart Hank Gargiulo/ESPN



Dak Prescott third-down chart Hank Gargiulo/ESPN


Wentz reliant on short passes

No qualified quarterback has a higher percentage of pass attempts come on screen plays than Wentz at 16 percent, and only Matthew Stafford has attempted more screen passes overall (32 to Wentz's 29). Wentz also has the second-highest percent of attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage of qualified quarterbacks, slightly behind Alex Smith at 27.6 percent.


These shorter passes by design are set up to help the quarterback, and QBR takes that into account when dividing credit on the play. So when Wentz connects with running back Darren Sproles 5 or 6 yards behind the line of scrimmage and Sproles ends up with a big gain, most of the credit there is given to Sproles and the offensive line, not Wentz. Meanwhile, Prescott is in the bottom third of the league in passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, with just 17 percent of his attempts in that range, less than the league average of 20.7 percent.

When we add everything up, we see that Wentz has not outplayed other quarterbacks who have faced the same defenses, is not converting third downs at a high rate and is reliant on having his receivers make plays for him on short passes, all in contrast to Prescott.

All of the above tells the QBR story -- even if the raw numbers and team records would suggest the players are equal.
 

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NFL people? Seriously who are all these pundits? I don't view Troy as a serious X's and O's analyst, and I feel he was mainly offering up a quick opinion on TV with Dak performing well in front of him vs any objective comparison with Romo.

This "movement" is from people like Colin Cowherd and others who like to stir things up and Cowboys fans who got sick of being held hostage by Romo's health.

Dak has made plays when he has to, but we can do better than just avoids turnovers at QB.

Looking below at Dak vs. Wentz, it's clear that while Dak is above average in many categories, he's rarely making big throws and behind Wentz in most categories. He's made up for it by being efficient in the intermediate throws and making very few turnovers, but which analysts are seriously arguing that that's better for the team?

You hear media guys repeat stuff about "chemistry", but who exactly is it that Dak has all this on-field chemistry with ... besides Cole Beasley? Witten's per game averages are down from 2014 and Dez's are way down. I will say Terrance Williams has improved since 2014 but his numbers are also in line with last season when basically no one was the QB.

Even Beasley's averages are about the same as 2014, besides YPG of course thanks to the huge increase in targets.


What?

Every analyst would say that's better for any team.

That is the formula that Brady uses every year.

Are yuo really saying it's better for the team to take more chances when you are already top 5 in scoring?
 

ravidubey

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You don't know that. Statistically he is doing things comparable to the best season of Romo's career. So no its not clear that Romo is better. .
This is delusion. We're six games into a very young man's career surrounded by the best offensive supporting cast in the league. We have no idea how good he is or how bad he is. I watched Mark freaking Rypien lead a similar team to a Superbowl and then fall on his face the next year when the supporting cast eroded even a touch.

In Dak, we have seen awesome intangibles that make us hopeful for a fine career. That's all we can judge for now.

And more importantly the evidence suggests Dak is better for this team as it is currently constructed
On the surface this has merit. After all, this was true in New England circa 2001.

Similarly when Dallas won a couple of games in 2010 with Kitna after starting 1-5 with Romo. The coaches started actually calling plays that made sense. There were runs and short passes mixed in with the endless deep targets Garrett normally called.

But this situation is very different than either NE or with Kitna.

"As constructed" this team has an elite WR in Bryant, elite RB in Elliott, fine TE in Witten, and flat out the best and deepest OL I've ever seen.

This is a fucking Ferrari, not an 18 year old Honda Civic that has to be constantly tuned and run carefully.

It's perfect for Romo.
That is the formula that Brady uses every year. Are yuo really saying it's better for the team to take more chances when you are already top 5 in scoring?
This is not New England and Dak ain't Brady. We're not taking the same chances when we throw deep because it's Dez Bryant, not Julian fucking Edelman running the pattern, and we've got much, much better blocking and run-game balance.
 

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How do you keep minimizing turnovers? Do you think Dak will maintain his 1/182 interception rate? Even still he's had two fumbles and a pick the last two games. Elliott had the two fumbles, but more are inevitable from the running game given the number of carries.

Just as big a killer for us are penalties. Our OL is great but they love their holding penalties. Killed us against New York to the point where it's almost like a turnover.

We need more big plays, and that starts by feeding Dez.
This is your brain. This is your brain on drugs. Don't do drugs.
 

data

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This is delusion. We're six games into a very young man's career surrounded by the best offensive supporting cast in the league. We have no idea how good he is or how bad he is. I watched Mark freaking Rypien lead a similar team to a Superbowl and then fall on his face the next year when the supporting cast eroded even a touch.
"As constructed" this team has an...elite RB in Elliott...
Why is Zeke considered elite but Dak's an enigma when both have played six professional games? I saw Timmy freaking Smith set a Super Bowl rushing record and then fall on his face the next year.
 

ravidubey

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Why is Zeke considered elite but Dak's an enigma when both have played six professional games? I saw Timmy freaking Smith set a Super Bowl rushing record and then fall on his face the next year.
Really, we're here now? First off RB and QB couldn't be more different in terms of rookie contributions historically in the NFL.

Next, We all know Smith was a late round pick who did jack shat before that Superbowl and jack shat afterwards.

Third, Zeke was the f'ing 4th pick in the draft, carried his team to the National Championship in college, and broke records at that same storied alma mater. He's done nothing to demonstrate that pedigree was mis-diagnosed in any way.

I can absolutely say he's elite and have no qualms doing it.

Dak's outplayed his pedigree by a good margin, mainly because he hasn't fallen on his face like most rookies would have at least once by now.

The Cowboys have the 5th most rush attempts in the league and the fewest pass attempts.

The team with the next fewest pass attempts is Philly.

It's no coincidence that the coaches of both teams are limiting their rookie QBs and with good reason.

They're rookies.
 

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If last night's win doesn't answer this question definitively I don't know what will. This should be unanimous. Fuck with this at this season's peril, I say.
 

ravidubey

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If last night's win doesn't answer this question definitively I don't know what will. This should be unanimous. Fuck with this at this season's peril, I say.
Whether it does or not, it was a major step forward for Dak. Played like crap and then came through in the end.

Every QB has crap games, and coming away with a big time win despite it is huge.
 

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ravidubey

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Certainly 4 weeks of conditioning and practice.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Ah "Conditioning" isn't there yet.
 

Genghis Khan

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If last night's win doesn't answer this question definitively I don't know what will. This should be unanimous. Fuck with this at this season's peril, I say.

It absolutely should have answered this definitively. Play the better QB. And that's clearly Romo.
 
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