Sturm: The Marinelli Report - The Simple Case For Demarcus Lawrence's Prime

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm, Special contributor

The last thing the Cowboys defense should ever want to see is the New York Giants making changes. The Giants have been consistently awful over the last several meetings with Dallas and on Sunday did nothing close to appearing dangerous with the football. Rather it was another series of harmless runs, short and safe passes, conservative calls on 3rd down, and then punts. Lots and lots of punts.

In the last 4 games against the Cowboys, Giants punter Brad Wing has punted 28 times. In 2016, Wing set the season-high for punts against the Cowboys when he punted to them 9 times in the game at Met-Life/Giants Stadium. Now, in 2017, he set the season-high again against Dallas with 8 punts. All told, in the last 2 years, over 29 games, the Giants placed 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th for "most punts in a game against the Dallas Cowboys".

I would want them to keep Ben McAdoo (already fired), Jerry Reese (already fired), and Eli Manning (packing) forever if I am Rod Marinelli.

The Giants have yet to score more than 20 in the last four games against Dallas and also have not scored more than 10 in the last three meetings. Just five times in the last two seasons has Marinelli's troops held an opponent under 14 points: The 49ers and the Browns, and then the Giants last December, back in Week 1, and now this trip to New Jersey. They are certifiably awful.

Perhaps we should try to credit the Cowboys for shutting them down, but there have been 17 games in the last 29 where the Giants have not scored 20 points. Rod Marinelli didn't end the Eli Manning era. The Giants consistent offensive incompetence did.

WEEKLY DATA BOX



This is a very strong day for the Cowboys defense. They can only play the team in front of them, and unlike any other time of the Eli Manning era, the Cowboys have crushed the Giants on 3rd down in these last few years to the tune of 32%. 38% on Sunday was marginally worse, but still plenty effective.

There was just one Giants' explosive play and no real strength to their attack. The Week 1 performance from the Giants was the single-worst Yards Per Play performance against Dallas this season - and it still is. In Week 1, the Giants gained a paltry 4.39 yards per snap. On Sunday it was 4.40. The two Giants games will almost assuredly go down as the two easiest days of the defensive year.

I am sure the Cowboys would love to play Eli Manning every week.

ELI MANNING THROW CHART



Again, we understand he doesn't have all his weapons. In fact, Odell Beckham has not played in either contest. But, it seems that the biggest Giants issues over these last few years are based more on their decision making than the bad luck of injuries. They spent the entire last offseason not addressing their offensive line. And now they have paid for it with jobs. But, the passing chart above shows what they can do. They can throw continuously within 5 yards of the line and not much else.



From a Cowboys standpoint, the snap count above shows that one objective to this season is to integrate the young defensive backs into the mix. They drafted Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis, and Xavier Woods this year to join 2015 draftee Byron Jones as the group to move to the future. Many of us think the best move for 2018 is likely Awuzie, Lewis, and Jones as your top 3 corners with 2016 draftee Anthony Brown as your 4th. Woods as one safety and then consider your options for the other safety spot. Combined, could they be the basis for a strong and young secondary? Early signs from Awuzie is that he is going to be quite a player - but it is plenty early.

SPLASH PLAYS



There was no David Irving in this game and you saw the defensive line struggle to make an impact because the Giants get the ball out so quickly. No sacks again, but we saw an exceptional day from the linebackers - telling us the line was doing a fine job of keeping the LBs clean to make tackles. Anthony Hitchens has continued his tear and Sean Lee returned to action to make a couple plays himself.

SEASON TOTALS



This is normally the time in the blog where we would do video review. But, since the Giants have been so awful on offense and because there were no massive issues to examine and because we are at the time of year where considering 2018 is a big past-time at the moment, I want to discuss the impending free agency of Demarcus Lawrence.
Lawrence was in the headlines this week for getting vocal about holding calls and such and the frustration with the refs recently -



WHY THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY YOU ALLOW DEMARCUS LAWRENCE TO LEAVE THIS SPRING:

Lawrence is probably the best defensive end who will be available in free agency in March in the entire NFL. He is 25 years old and is surely having his best season at just the right time.

This has caused the somewhat cynical Cowboys fandom to be somewhat cynical about Lawrence. Here are things I have heard from some of you about Lawrence - along with my brief answers:

"He has had one good year" - this is as false a statement as I have ever seen. More on that in a moment.

"He is finally playing for the money" - the timing of his breakout to the end of his contract is true, but it is also true that common sense is that a guy on a rookie contract would be his better in Year 4 than when he is first entering the league, right?

"We should not pay him and take the compensatory pick" - a lot of ridiculous things are said every day on Twitter. This is among the most ridiculous. Delete that tweet immediately.

"He gets hurt too much" - He broke his foot in the 2014 training camp and hurt his back in the 2015 season. That sounds pretty normal for a defensive linemen, to be honest. Nothing that has kept him from dominating when he is out there.

"He gets suspended too much" - He was suspended once at the start of 2016. I don't love it, but I will not suggest he is a guy who has done this 5 times.

With all due respect to Sean Lee, I think Lawrence is the Cowboys best defensive talent right now and I am not sure it is close. If you allowed the NFL to pluck one player from the defense, it would be between Lawrence and David Irving - not an aging Lee. If Lawrence was on any other team, I bet many would suggest he is the guy to target in free agency. But, because he is the Cowboys and maybe because some fans love to undersell what is right below their noses, I want to show some Lawrence materials that have me thinking that critics of his 4 years in Dallas are nothing short of insane.

First, here are the 4-year Splash totals for the Cowboys defense. This is the length of Lawrence's career here.



Now, for those who don't know, a "splash play" is anything that ends a play positively for the defense. A sack, a tackle for loss, a stuff for no gain, a QB pressure that makes him throw the ball away, a batted down ball at the line of scrimmage, a holding penalty drawn, a forced fumble, a recovered fumble, an interception, or a pass defended. Plays of no gain, negative plays, and takeaways are splash plays.

And nobody has more than Lawrence since he joined the team - and it isn't close. You might tell me that, Bob, almost half of all of his splashes are in this "contract year", and you are correct. But, what I highly disagree with the premise that this is his first dominant year. 2015 was dominant, too. He led the team that year as well. 2014 and 2016 were the injured/suspended seasons and were a step down. But, what I would like to do here is to show you a dozen plays - NOT FROM 2017 - that will show you he was a stud before 2017.

If you don't concede he is a stud in 2017, then you really shouldn't have opinions about football.

VIDEO REVIEW - Demarcus Lawrence - 2014-2016

This will seem obvious to many of you. But, I want this to serve as a place to be bookmarked when the Cowboys fan next to you questions Demarcus Lawrence. I don't mind doing this because it is good for us who recognize his play to remind ourselves that this isn't a recent trend. The Cowboys bet hard on him in the 2014 draft by trading up to get him. And, I contend, they were absolutely correct to do so and they will be absolutely correct to extend him for the market rate. It will be very expensive, but they must keep him.

And as far as some Cowboys fans not recognizing his talents? They might be the same who had no idea how good DeMarcus Ware was in his prime when they said he didn't affect big games or late-game situations. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. This Demarcus is not near the player that DeMarcus was, but this one is the best free agent pass rusher in the league in 2018, and I am here to make sure everyone agrees it needs to be in a Cowboys uniform.



2014 - Rookie year, here he steps inside a double-team block to blow up a running play to his side against the Giants. The issue with Lawrence that seems to go consistently unnoticed is he is the best run-stopping DE I have seen in a Cowboys uniform in ages.



2014 - Wildcard Playoffs against Detroit - Here is Lawrence coming off the edge, whipping the left tackle, getting to Stafford and ending the game right here. He wins with his hands, dances to the outside, and pounces on Stafford's blindside. This is a rookie securing a playoff win.



2014 - playoffs, inside rush double-team and spin against Aaron Rodgers to bring him down with a sack. They couldn't get to Rodgers that day. But, Lawrence did. He stays active and alive on plays and his motor is his finest attribute.



2015 - Run away from him? He runs down the line from the weak side DE spot better than anyone you will ever see. Greg Hardy sets the edge and Marshawn Lynch wants a cutback. There is no cutback when Lawrence is sprinting down the line to make the play from the backside. This is the movement of an outside LB, not a DE. Look at the launch into Lynch's ribs as he tries to cause a fumble. This is awesome.



2015 - Inside stunt in Washington. Lost season, but the guy who flies around the most is #90. Not only does he jump inside on the stunt, power past the guard, and close on the QB, but he also gets the ball loose as Kirk Cousins is stunned by this guy in his lap so fast. This is maybe his best pass-rushing ability. Use his length and quickness to disrupt all day.



2015 - Jets want a goal-line run in the middle, so they double the DT and hope the TE can keep Lawrence from jumping the snap. Instead, 90 is in the backfield and the RB has no chance to do anything but suffer a TFL. The Jets game was a masterpiece for Lawrence who dominated against runs all day long. I will just show you this one, but there were several others.



2015 - Final play against Miami. These athletic traits are uncommon for guys this size. Look at Lawrence fly to the inside and chase a QB to his ultimate doom. This is Lawrence in the open field. This is what you pay big bucks for in free agency. Good news - he is already in your facility.



2015 - at Buffalo - you can play him on either side. It doesn't matter much. Tyrod Taylor holds the ball a bit too long and steps back into the path of Lawrence, who just made the RT look like a traffic cone. You like classic edge rushers? Me, too.



2015 - At Green Bay - I was told you want guys that don't let Aaron Rodgers get away. It sure looks like Lawrence just schooled RT Bryan Bulaga and closed down Rodgers quite easily here. This is a real seek and destroy mission. You might notice this is pretty much every week late in 2015 when he most certainly was not "playing for a contract". He is dominating on a team that had nothing to play for because that is what he loves to do.



Here is 2016 - at Cleveland - Again, don't run at Demarcus Lawrence. Frontside runs to Lawrence do not go very well. Hopefully, when you look at sack totals, you realize there is a little more to the position that that. He, even in down years, destroys run plays. Those run plays at him or....



Run plays that go away from him. 2016 - at Pittsburgh - If you study one play, this is the one. Watch him - far left of the screen - run down Le'Veon Bell and knock the ball out because he is running so hard and fast and dives at Bell and the ball. Do not cut back when you run away from Lawrence. He will hurt you.



Again, at Pittsburgh. He dominated this 2016 victory even though you told me he was bad in 2016. This is the Steelers hoping to catch him on the end-around to Antonio Brown. 66-David Decastro is supposed to pull and get to him before Brown comes around the corner. No chance. Lawrence destroyed this play like you would expect an elite edge to do. Minus 9 yards.



2016 Playoffs - You like a guy who plays well against Green Bay every time, right? 4th Quarter. Huge moment. Packers are driving and in field goal range. They decided to run right at Lawrence with Ty Montgomery and they lose 5 yards to drop back out of field goal range to the 38. Spoiler: Mason Crosby hit a 56-yarder anyway. But still. Don't run at Lawrence.

There are a dozen huge moments from a guy who leads the team in huge defensive moments since the day he was drafted 4 years ago. I did not use a single play from 2017 to demonstrate that while you or your buddy only think he had "1 big year", the truth is he has been nothing short of strong to quite strong since the day he arrived.

He is 25 and near the top of the NFL in sacks and negative plays right now. You have to sign him (or franchise him). This is not a choice. This is mandatory. He will get between $60 and $80 million dollars and it will raise eyebrows.

But, if you have been studying him, you know he is the best defensive player they have drafted since Sean Lee. Now you keep him through his prime - which is just starting. Simple.
 

Simpleton

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I agree with all of this, my main concern is not necessarily his drive or "playing for a contract", it's simply his health/back and the PED/weed suspension or whatever the hell it was last year.

As far as his ability when he's on the field or whether or not he's been "loafing", that's not an issue for me.

At this point I'd probably just take the risk and sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal and hope for the best with the back/off field stuff. You have to at least franchise him either way and you definitely save money in the first year of the deal if you sign him long-term. Everything else from there is a risk, sure, but there's also a payoff if he stays on the field because if you franchise him and he has another 10+ sack year in 2018 the price goes up even more.
 

Cotton

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I agree with all of this, my main concern is not necessarily his drive or "playing for a contract", it's simply his health/back and the PED/weed suspension or whatever the hell it was last year.

As far as his ability when he's on the field or whether or not he's been "loafing", that's not an issue for me.

At this point I'd probably just take the risk and sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal and hope for the best with the back/off field stuff. You have to at least franchise him either way and you definitely save money in the first year of the deal if you sign him long-term. Everything else from there is a risk, sure, but there's also a payoff if he stays on the field because if you franchise him and he has another 10+ sack year in 2018 the price goes up even more.
Agreed. Let's get him wrapped up for 4-5. That's an easy risk/reward choice for me.
 

BipolarFuk

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It really is ludicrous that people don't want to pay this guy.

Can you imagine him going to the Slurs and destroying Collins for the next 5-7 years?
 

Cowboysrock55

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I agree with all of this, my main concern is not necessarily his drive or "playing for a contract", it's simply his health/back and the PED/weed suspension or whatever the hell it was last year.

As far as his ability when he's on the field or whether or not he's been "loafing", that's not an issue for me.

At this point I'd probably just take the risk and sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal and hope for the best with the back/off field stuff. You have to at least franchise him either way and you definitely save money in the first year of the deal if you sign him long-term. Everything else from there is a risk, sure, but there's also a payoff if he stays on the field because if you franchise him and he has another 10+ sack year in 2018 the price goes up even more.
Yep, I'd sign him up for 5 years and just hope to leave some sort of an out in the contract so that if his back gives out you aren't on the hook for the whole thing.
 

p1_

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Im in, he and Irving are the only semblance of a consistent pass rush we've had in forever. Dlaw plays the run very well too.
 

shane

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It really is ludicrous that people don't want to pay this guy.

Can you imagine him going to the Slurs and destroying Collins for the next 5-7 years?
Seems like a good franchise tag guy to me. But I wouldn't be crying if we signed him. He does seem like a good candidate to get fat and injured after signing a contract though.

Im in, he and Irving are the only semblance of a consistent pass rush we've had in forever. Dlaw plays the run very well too.
Irving is the guy who is really impressive. At times, he is unstoppable. I would like to see him in an every down role under a new DC (hopefully Marvin Lewis)
 

Genghis Khan

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I think I'd break the bank for Lawrence. He's really good at a position that is important enough to pay high dollar for.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I think I'd break the bank for Lawrence. He's really good at a position that is important enough to pay high dollar for.
Yeah I would as well. We have all been begging for an elite pass rush. We now have a 25 year old elite pass rusher. You can't let a guy like that leave out the door. What we need to do is keep adding players of that caliber.
 

lostxn

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Yeah I would as well. We have all been begging for an elite pass rush. We now have a 25 year old elite pass rusher. You can't let a guy like that leave out the door. What we need to do is keep adding players of that caliber.
There is zero chance we allow Hitch, Lawrence, or Irving to go anywhere. Not to worry. We keep our stars and always have. Granted Hitch isn't a star but with Lee's constant injuries, three good MLBs is a must.

A more interesting question would be Jonathan Cooper.
 

BipolarFuk

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There is zero chance we allow Hitch, Lawrence, or Irving to go anywhere. Not to worry. We keep our stars and always have. Granted Hitch isn't a star but with Lee's constant injuries, three good MLBs is a must.

A more interesting question would be Jonathan Cooper.
I'm betting Hitch is gone. Can't keep everyone.

Why we need 3 good MLBers?
 

Cotton

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I'm betting Hitch is gone. Can't keep everyone.

Why we need 3 good MLBers?
Because 1 of them can't seem to stay on the field consistently. We need to pay that man.
 

Cotton

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Hitch has went from a JAG at the beginning of the year at the DCC to borderline superstaaaaaaaa.
He has made that transformation on the field, too.
 

lostxn

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Hitch has went from a JAG at the beginning of the year at the DCC to borderline superstaaaaaaaa.
He's a very solid player. He's not a star. But you can win consistently with guys like him. Smart, athletic.
 
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