Sturm: Decoding Linehan Examines The Troubling 3rd Down Issues

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor

This would seem to be one of those games where it is important to understand that statistics are important, but not the be-all, end-all for a coaching staff.

It is great to score 30 points. It is excellent to rack up 440 yards. 7 for 14 on 3rd downs is magnificent most weeks and 3 for 4 in the red zone is exactly what we are looking for.

So, why do none of those numbers seem to matter too much this week as the Cowboys try to understand why they lost to the Los Angeles Rams at home in a game where very few thought that was a possibility?

Because - you play to win the game. And if you walk away without the "W", then all of the other numbers are just there on the page for people to look at.

Overall, the Cowboys offense can feel pretty good about a lot of the things that they accomplished on Sunday as they were able to run for 7 yards a carry and nearly 200 yards on the ground. They also passed for another 252 with a QB that threw 3 Touchdowns.

So, how did they lose this thing?

Well, it was a game where field position mattered. The Rams were able to start drives on the Cowboys end of the field three different times. Twice from turnovers that the Cowboys handed over and a third when the kickoff return team set them up nicely. The Cowboys never started a drive - not one - of their 10 outside their own 25 yard line. That doesn't help.

And then you take a -2 in the turnover department, where the Cowboys are now 3-20 under Jason Garrett when they lose the turnover differential by two or more.

WEEKLY DATA BOX



7-14 on 3rd downs is usually going to turn out very well. Consistent with everything else, though is this issue where they were 5-7 in the 1st half and then 2-7 in the 2nd half. From that standpoint, the issues on 3rd down resulted in drive after drive stalling in the 2nd half as the Rams were cashing in on each drive - if only for a field goal. That inability to answer for almost 25 minutes of game-time without a single point is a real problem that the Cowboys would not be able to avoid.

The Cowboys are 20-52 on 3rd downs this season for 38.5%. Do you know what the NFL average is through 4 weeks of 3rd downs? 20-52, 38.5%. Exactly the same. They rank 17th.

Last year, they ranked 10th in the league at 42.3%. They also faced 11.8 3rd down situations a game which was the 4th fewest in the league. What is the best way to win 3rd downs? Never to face them. This year, they are back at 15th in the number of 3rd downs they face. And that is where they get in trouble.



As you can see, the "3rd and manageable" is still where it was (approximately). You allow the Cowboys to win 1st and 2nd down to set up a new set of downs or 3rd and short, they will be tough to beat. But, if you can plug up 1st down and get them chasing on 3rd and 7+, they drop substantially to a spot where you aren't scared at all of them.

The NFL bats about 25% on 3rd and 7+. The best teams get to about 35% for a season (Detroit and Green Bay in 2016) and the worst teams were at 19% (New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams in 2016). Last year, Dak Prescott and this offense fit right in the middle at 26.4%. That still allowed them to finish 10th in 3rd downs overall because they killed 3rd and manageable.

But, in 2017, they have fallen below 21% already to 5 of 24 for 20.8%. That ranks them 22nd in the league in this category where they struggle. I know that is a lot of numbers, but the bottom line is to stay out of long 3rd downs for your best results.

DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART



I want to come back to this throw chart in a bit, but it is getting more and more difficult to work the underneath routes because the safeties and linebackers know that is where you want to go. This is a pretty easy league to understand from the press box. One team has stuff they do well and the other team wants to take it away. From that standpoint, the Cowboys have put enough Dak Prescott offense out there to build up tendencies, and now the opponents are trying to force him to prove he can do other things.

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Again, this is pretty clear stuff. Win the early downs with the best recipe for Cowboys success. Run the ball and play-action behind it to throw into high percentage spots. That is the opposite of what 3rd down affords. On 3rd down you are playing a defense that doesn't care if you run, they are sitting back waiting for your familiar pass routes that they will defend with numbers.

Now, in the interest of time, allow me to say this - this is the result, not the cause. The cause is being unable to stay ahead of the sticks and on schedule. When you run well on early downs and take advantage of what the defense cannot defend, you have success. But, when they stop you on early downs, then you have to beat them in a more difficult manner. In other words, in 2016, the Cowboys were a dominant 1st down team. They had success at an extremely high level for 1st down runs. This year, they are average. They dropped from 3rd in the NFL to 18th. Let that sink in.

THEY ARE A BELOW AVERAGE RUNNING TEAM ON 1ST DOWN THIS YEAR.

So, we are about to look at the 3rd down issues, but that is your real issue. 50% of their runs on 1st down last year went for 4 yards or more. This year, they have dropped all the way to 41% when the league average is 42%. This is all tied together. They don't win 1st down often enough anymore.

I should probably spend today on 1st downs, but instead, I want to look at the recipe to stop the Cowboys on 3rd downs here with the videos:



This is a 1st down. First play of the game. The Cowboys are going to take a shot and find Dez Bryant for the biggest pass play of the day. But, look at the secondary. Look how few Rams are playing pass defense. This is what 1st down looks like for a QB. Everyone is possibly open.



Contrast that play above with this one. The Rams have 7 guys in coverage against your 5. They have you outnumbered long enough that before Dez Bryant can shake open, the pass protection has broken down and Dak gets sacked on this 1st Quarter 3rd down.



Here is why you don't have much time. Jonathan Cooper versus Aaron Donald and then Michael Brockers is working over La'el Collins. The clock is ticking, the Rams have a stout front 4, and the ball has to come out quick. Dez doesn't have time to get open on a pivot route.



2Q - 14:15 - This is the Touchdown to Zeke. Watch the Rams coverage. They will not allow Beasley or Witten to get open. This is the recipe. 3rd down, bracket Witten and Beasley. Make Dak find another solution. Roll coverage to Bryant and if Zeke is going to be able to do this, the Rams will live with it. As you may remember, this is how the game ended, too. Dump to Zeke and hope he can work a miracle underneath.



Heck of a job, but it is tough to live like this.


Here was that impressive display on 3rd down at 5:43 of the 2nd Quarter where Dak has to leave the pocket and do what he does sometimes. This is really nice work after protection broke down, but you sure can't live like this very often. Again, watch the coverage underneath on Beasley and Witten.



It all starts because Cooper can't deal with Aaron Donald - nobody can, it seems. So, the clock is ticking. If you can't protect, you can't wait for guys to uncover. And this is why 3rd downs are very difficult in this league.



3rd and 11 here, 1st drive of the 3rd Quarter. Slant to Bryant and the ball is delivered a bit low. But, this is where I need Dez Bryant to make a catch. Sammy Watkins made this exact catch later in the game on the other side.



You can tell me about all the uncatchable balls that Dez has to deal with, but in a game like this, helping out your QB with a catch that doesn't hit you in the numbers would be pretty ideal here. Instead, here comes the punt team again.



Every 3rd down has a different story to tell. Here is 3rd and 7 at 5:25 of the 3Q. The Rams are bringing a 6 man blitz and the Cowboys have to get it blocked up - Zeke does a nice job. So, now, as the pressure closes in, can Dak pick out the right target. Looks like Witten will be the guy who opens up at the sticks, but he tries to set up Beasley on the option route. But, Beasley does not go inside and instead has no angle and is pushed out at the boundary. Close, but not close enough. Punt.



Here we go again. 3rd and 6 at 1:42 of the 3rd. He thinks he has Dez for a back shoulder fade, but I don't really see much up there. The throw is safely out of bounds. Instead, Witten again looks like an option underneath. It just seems he doesn't have the patience on Witten sometimes. The Rams are blitzing, so they are betting that Prescott will unload the ball and concede the punt in situations like this. They appear right.



3rd and 9. So many 3rd and long situations! 11:12 in the 4th and this is likely where the Cowboys lost the game. As you can see, protection again is the issue and I am not sure what Dak saw -



Is he trying to throw it to Beasley? It doesn't matter because Zack Martin loses in protection to Brockers and Mark Barron picks this off. Prescott was hit way too much when trying to throw in this game. The Rams deserve a lot of credit, too, of course. There is nowhere to go with the football here. But, the interception is the worst possible outcome.



Final drive - This is 3rd and 10 - and he wants the out to Dez Bryant. Of course, Wade knows this and calls for his DE to drop into that path on the shallow line to make the throw more difficult. It sure looks like the comeback to Williams at the other sideline is more available from this laptop's view.



As you can see, Travis Frederick loses his LB pickup (with Cooper's help) and now Dak is trying to fit the ball over the DE and under the corner and in bounds into this tight window while being hit and with the whole game on the line. Should he make this throw? You would love to see it. But, could we ask him to do more difficult things? You have to get this protection right and the OL blew it. Prescott could not hit the window while being hit.



So, it comes down to 4th and 10. Watch the Rams. They all know this is the call. And Zeke tries to get there, but this is too tough to get to the sticks.



You can also see the pass rushers moving to keep Dak in the pocket this time. They are going to make him make an amazing throw or this game ends.

It ends.

SUMMARY

I could certainly look at why 1st down is broken, too, right now, but I will mercifully leave that project for another day.

Somehow, they gained 440 yards, 30 points, and converted 7 3rd downs and I have just acted like they were awful offensively. That may be unfair, but I feel like it properly fits what Dallas is dealing with right now. They must manage their game better. It will make 3rd down better and it will, of course, get back to owning the clock and feeling in control of games again.

But, for now, you can see, these 3rd down situations are partly on the QB. But, then the protection breaks down, the WR doesn't make a play, and the frustration grows. Opponents are sitting on the normal targets, because they know that is where they are normally looking. They have to change tendencies to change how they are defended. And, they need to get this turned around quickly.

Man, when you look at all these plays, you see an offense that somehow moved the ball and scored despite a passing game largely getting most of its yards from improvisation.

Only the Dez deep ball on those plays posted actually worked as intended.

What I see everywhere else is players failing to get open, Dak missing throws or reads, and the defense looking very prepared for most of what we threw at them.

People want to say that Witten is old, and he is, but even 27 year old Witten isn't freeing himself from some of those bracket coverages.

We are probably seeing yet another instance during Garrett's tenure with this team of his offense being predictable.

The problem is this antiquated idea of "out executing" teams. I mean yea, of course you have to execute, but with the rules the way they are and the game having evolved the way it has there are plenty of opportunities to "scheme" guys open and we just seem to not prioritize that as much as other teams do.

Basically, if our running game isn't mauling teams into submission this coaching staff lacks creative ways to spark the offense.

Iamtdg said:

But, for now, you can see, these 3rd down situations are partly on the QB. But, then the protection breaks down, the WR doesn't make a play, and the frustration grows. Opponents are sitting on the normal targets, because they know that is where they are normally looking. They have to change tendencies to change how they are defended. And, they need to get this turned around quickly.

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This is the key right here.

The question is, do we have the offensive minds on the staff to accomplish this?

I don't think we do.

Texas Ace said:

Man, when you look at all these plays, you see an offense that somehow moved the ball and scored despite a passing game largely getting most of its yards from improvisation.

Only the Dez deep ball on those plays posted actually worked as intended.

What I see everywhere else is players failing to get open, Dak missing throws or reads, and the defense looking very prepared for most of what we threw at them.

People want to say that Witten is old, and he is, but even 27 year old Witten isn't freeing himself from some of those bracket coverages.

We are probably seeing yet another instance during Garrett's tenure with this team of his offense being predictable.

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That is one problem but another very real problem differentiating from last year is the struggles running on first down.

mschmidt64 said:

That is one problem but another very real problem differentiating from last year is the struggles running on first down.

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Definitely.

But it's alarming that when we do go back to pass, the defense looks as if they know exactly where to be.

In all of those plays up there, hardly any show our guys getting open. There's Witten beating his man 1 on 1 and Sturm points it out, and Williams looks to have a comeback on another play, but outside of that, no one is ever open on any of those plays.

mschmidt64 said:

That is one problem but another very real problem differentiating from last year is the struggles running on first down.

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Our first downs are shit in general. Last year we were consistently getting 5 yards or more it seems like. This year we either run it for no gain or we pass it for nothing. Then we put all the pressure on Dak to get us a big play with the next two downs. Which is crazy.

Cowboysrock55 said:

Our first downs are shit in general. Last year we were consistently getting 5 yards or more it seems like. This year we either run it for no gain or we pass it for nothing. Then we put all the pressure on Dak to get us a big play with the next two downs. Which is crazy.

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So is our problems running predictability? Or inability to execute?

Cause I hear time after time that we get too cute and just need to ram it down their throats with our strength, the run game.

Now that that doesn't seem to be working, I'm hearing that we're not creative enough.

So it kinda seems to me like no one has any idea.

mschmidt64 said:

So is our problems running predictability? Or inability to execute?

Cause I hear time after time that we get too cute and just need to ram it down their throats with our strength, the run game.

Now that that doesn't seem to be working, I'm hearing that we're not creative enough.

So it kinda seems to me like no one has any idea.

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Lack of creativity has long been an issue with this board.

We've all been saying that for a long time.

As for the running game, there's no denying that our line just isn't playing well right now and it is affecting the offense as a whole.

mschmidt64 said:

So is our problems running predictability? Or inability to execute?

Cause I hear time after time that we get too cute and just need to ram it down their throats with our strength, the run game.

Now that that doesn't seem to be working, I'm hearing that we're not creative enough.

So it kinda seems to me like no one has any idea.

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Both are a problem. Come out on first down and either ram it down their throat or run play action and other things of that nature.

We do the opposite. We will come out on first down in a shot gun and try to catch the defense off guard by running a draw. Which sounds great when it works but Elliott isn't a great RB for draw plays (You generally want a scat back, not a 235 pound bruiser for those). And apparently we suck at executing them. So move on and stop with that shit strategy that doesn't work.

But why we can't seem to execute the 6 yard passes out of the shotgun is beyond me. I'd have to see the whole field. From what I have seen from Beasley it looks like defenders have learned to just hold him and it won't be called. Which means we need to find a better way to get him a free release because the refs won't help us there.

Teams are sitting on Beasley and Witten within the first 5-10 yards because they know Prescott loves to take those easy, simple passes. We need to scheme up ways to get them open and to get Dak easier throws, I also wouldn't mind seeing Beasley starting out inside and running little wheel-type routes around a pick from the outside receiver, would catch secondaries off guard I'm sure.

Cowboysrock55 said:

Both are a problem. Come out on first down and either ram it down their throat or run play action and other things of that nature.

We do the opposite. We will come out on first down in a shot gun and try to catch the defense off guard by running a draw. Which sounds great when it works but Elliott isn't a great RB for draw plays (You generally want a scat back, not a 235 pound bruiser for those). And apparently we suck at executing them. So move on and stop with that shit strategy that doesn't work.

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It is not my recollection that we have been running inordinately out of shotgun on first down. I seem to remember a bunch of under-center handoffs that go for little (or negative) yards, this season.

But why we can't seem to execute the 6 yard passes out of the shotgun is beyond me. I'd have to see the whole field. From what I have seen from Beasley it looks like defenders have learned to just hold him and it won't be called. Which means we need to find a better way to get him a free release because the refs won't help us there.

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Yeah, obviously there is a problem and obviously the coaches need to figure it out. I just don't think it's quite as simple and obvious as some like to make it seem.

mschmidt64 said:

It is not my recollection that we have been running inordinately out of shotgun on first down. I seem to remember a bunch of under-center handoffs that go for little (or negative) yards, this season.



Yeah, obviously there is a problem and obviously the coaches need to figure it out. I just don't think it's quite as simple and obvious as some like to make it seem.

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Don't get me wrong, our play action from under center stuff works awesome. But I also understand you can't run that every play or it won't work any longer. Last year we passed out of the shotgun way better. This year we are down right bad at it. The only time it seems to work is when Dak improvises.

Misdirection misdirection misdirection. Whether it be designed rollouts or whatever. When we go with the misdirection, it almost always works.

Iamtdg said:

Misdirection misdirection misdirection. Whether it be designed rollouts or whatever. When we go with the misdirection, it almost always works.

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See above though.

mschmidt64 said:

See above though.

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Of course you can't run it every play, but more than 3 times a game would be great.

Iamtdg said:

Misdirection misdirection misdirection. Whether it be designed rollouts or whatever. When we go with the misdirection, it almost always works.

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we almost never run rub/pick plays to get receivers free. startling lack of imagination by Linehan.

bbgun said:

we almost never run rub/pick plays to get receivers free. startling lack of imagination by Linehan.

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Have we EVER done that in Garrett's tenure here?

bbgun said:

we almost never run rub/pick plays to get receivers free. startling lack of imagination by Linehan.

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Which is funny because one of the things we loved about Linehan in 2014 was the different looks and the creativity he brought in the passing game.

Like this Terrence Williams TD at 1:39:45



What happened to those types of plays?

The NFL is allowing full games to be posted now? Excellent.

On where those plays went, though... Maybe it's in the CBS booth now? Listening to him in the booth, it's hard to imagine he didn't have a lot of influence.