2016 POTUS Election Thread

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Clay_Allison

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Trump is doing plenty to energize democrats and independent minorities and women.
I don't think that motivation on the negatives helps as much as it probably should. Trump and Hillary both have astoundingly high negative numbers and I think that generally will turn voters off and favor the Republicans slightly, IF (big if) the RNC decides to get behind Trump.
 

townsend

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I don't think that motivation on the negatives helps as much as it probably should. Trump and Hillary both have astoundingly high negative numbers and I think that generally will turn voters off and favor the Republicans slightly, IF (big if) the RNC decides to get behind Trump.
Negativity will drive people pretty hard. "Anyone but Trump" actually made people willing to vote for Cruz.

Let's face it, negativity was what started the antiestablishment movement.

You think the ghost of Bush didn't help propel Obama to victory? Don't forget the 2006 midterms Bush's general ineptitude helped Dems prevail, without any charismatic figure from the left to help. The Republicans manage to poison their own brand, and the democrats were there to clean up the senate seats.

I have zero doubts that this general will not favor the GOP, because Trump has alienated everyone except his angry white man base.

Now 60 million Hispanics have a pretty great reason to flock to the polls, and if anything a moderate like Hillary would probably be more appealing than a dedicated leftist like Bernie.

I think what you underestimate is just how out of touch Trump is with the mainstream. That's why this race has taken everyone by surprise, the GOP primary has failed to function as a proper vetting process. Thanks to radicalism, they've put forth their least electable candidate whose own rhetoric will have poisoned his campaign.
 

Clay_Allison

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Negativity will drive people pretty hard. "Anyone but Trump" actually made people willing to vote for Cruz.

Let's face it, negativity was what started the antiestablishment movement.

You think the ghost of Bush didn't help propel Obama to victory? Don't forget the 2006 midterms helped Dems prevail, without any charismatic figure to help. The Republicans manage to poison the

I have zero doubts that this general will not favor the GOP, because Trump has alienated everyone except his angry white man base.

Now 60 million Hispanics have a pretty great reason to flock to the polls, and if anything a moderate like Hillary would probably be more appealing than a dedicated leftist like Bernie.

I think what you underestimate is just how out of touch Trump is with the mainstream. That's why this race has taken everyone by surprise, the GOP primary has failed to function as a proper vetting process. Thanks to radicalism, they've put forth their least electable candidate whose own rhetoric will have poisoned his campaign.
Republicans bet on Obama's all time low approval rating to drive whatever crap they put out there into office, but they turned off their base so hard by pushing Romney into the nomination, Obama slipped by with approval numbers in the 30s.

Hillary is very Romney like. She's uncharismatic and her social conservatism and wall street ties don't reflect the values of her party any more than Romney's liberalism and Northeast background reflected the Republican base. They are counting on Trump to win the election for them, it may work and should work maybe, but it's risky.
 
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townsend

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Republicans bet on Obama's all time low approval rating to drive whatever crap they put out there into office, but they turned off their base so hard by pushing Romney into the nomination, Obama slipped by with approval numbers in the 30s.

Hillary is very Romney like. She's uncharismatic and her social conservatism and wall street ties don't reflect the values of her party any more than Romney's liberalism and Northeast background. They are counting on Trump to win the election for them, it may work and should work maybe, but it's risky.
So a stale but viable candidate from the GOP failed to overtake a president with unfavorability ratings similar to Hillary's, but an extremist presidential candidate who has willfully alienated every kind of undecided voters (as well as moderate republicans and actual conservatives) is going to win against a candidate of similar popularity.

Let's face it, nearly everyone to whom Hillary is a swear word, would never have voted for Obama anyway. They're candidates of comparable popularity, riding the waves of Republican incompetence that propel them to office. Now all the things the GOP has been accused of, that lost them previous elections, they've openly admitted by selecting Trump as a candidate.

Romney lost because he could not expand the Republican base and recruit new demographics. Do you think demographic diversity has increased in the 2016 GOP? Or has it collapsed in on itself like a dying star?
 

Clay_Allison

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So a stale but viable candidate from the GOP failed to overtake a president with unfavorability ratings similar to Hillary's, but an extremist presidential candidate who has willfully alienated every kind of undecided voters (as well as moderate republicans and actual conservatives) is going to win against a candidate of similar popularity.

Let's face it, nearly everyone to whom Hillary is a swear word, would never have voted for Obama anyway.
They're candidates of comparable popularity, riding the waves of Republican incompetence that propel them to office. Now all the things the GOP has been accused of, that lost them previous elections, they've openly admitted by selecting Trump as a candidate.

Romney lost because he could not expand the Republican base and recruit new demographics. Do you think demographic diversity has increased in the 2016 GOP? Or has it collapsed in on itself like a dying star?
I'll take issue with that first. Obama ran as a 'hope and change' anti-establishment candidate. A lot of people who voted for Obama and supported Bernie won't vote for Hillary.

Also I disagree with the narrative about growing the base, all Romney needed to do to win is motivate the people who turned out to vote Republican in 2010. Instead, he represented the republicans that the base refused to vote for in 2006 when the Democrats took hold of both houses in a mid-term. If a nominee in 2012 had captured that momentum while Democrats were mostly disappointed in Obama's bailouts and stimulus pork bills he would have won. Republicans have just been terrible at grooming talent and they should have stopped listening to obsolete "strategists" like Rove back in 06.
 

townsend

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I'll take issue with that first. Obama ran as a 'hope and change' anti-establishment candidate. A lot of people who voted for Obama and supported Bernie won't vote for Hillary.

Also I disagree with the narrative about growing the base, all Romney needed to do to win is motivate the people who turned out to vote Republican in 2010. Instead, he represented the republicans that the base refused to vote for in 2006 when the Democrats took hold of both houses in a mid-term. If a nominee in 2012 had captured that momentum while Democrats were mostly disappointed in Obama's bailouts and stimulus pork bills he would have won. Republicans have just been terrible at grooming talent and they should have stopped listening to obsolete "strategists" like Rove back in 06.
In 2008 you could kind of pretend Obama was anti-establishment, but not so in 2012. Mitt still got his clocked cleaned and I very much doubt Trump touched Mitt's numbers. Also Republicans don't win by motivating people to turn out, they motivate them to stay home, 2010 was one of the most the most abysmal voter turnouts in this nation's history. That's why Republicans can clean up in midterm elections, young people don't turn out.

Who's going to turn out more women than a guy who actively insults women, who's going to turn out more Hispanics than a guy who calls them rapists, who's going to turn out more liberals than a guy who wants to attack Isis families, create a Muslim registry, and get "Bill gates to lock the Internet".

Liberals are going to hymn and haw about Bernie but Hillary can and will pull them together. People forget that she's one of the most savvy political minds in the country. Al Franken or Liz Warren as a Running mate will be plenty to pull in the majority of liberals. I've said before that a Clinton/Warren ticket would be a great way to push the "historic" narrative necessary to bring out 2008 level voters.
 

Clay_Allison

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In 2008 you could kind of pretend Obama was anti-establishment, but not so in 2012. Mitt still got his clocked cleaned and I very much doubt Trump touched Mitt's numbers. Also Republicans don't win by motivating people to turn out, they motivate them to stay home, 2010 was one of the most the most abysmal voter turnouts in this nation's history. That's why Republicans can clean up in midterm elections, young people don't turn out.

Who's going to turn out more women than a guy who actively insults women, who's going to turn out more Hispanics than a guy who calls them rapists, who's going to turn out more liberals than a guy who wants to attack Isis families, create a Muslim registry, and get "Bill gates to lock the Internet".

Liberals are going to hymn and haw about Bernie but Hillary can and will pull them together. People forget that she's one of the most savvy political minds in the country. Al Franken or Liz Warren as a Running mate will be plenty to pull in the majority of liberals. I've said before that a Clinton/Warren ticket would be a great way to push the "historic" narrative necessary to bring out 2008 level voters.
Romney's loss wasn't Bush v Gore close but it wasn't a clock cleaning. 65 mil to 60 mil in popular vote. A stronger candidate could have turned Obama's negatives in his favor. Most of the Bernie supporters in my FB feed are still posting negative about Hillary, and she hasn't motivated women to vote for her over Bernie in the numbers that she's declared herself entitled to. I think women under 45 along with Democrats under 45 will tune out on election day and the low-turnout Republican strategy will at least come within shouting range of working. I tried dismissing Trump for a long time because I don't get why anyone would vote for him, but there's a lot of reality TV fans out there as clueless on politics as he is.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Mitt still got his clocked cleaned.
I've never really understood people that treat this like a sporting event. Like you root for the Democrats because that's your team, and you're going to talk about beating your rival Republicans ass or cleaning their clock.

Just never made sense to me but lots of people act that way like you do. It's not a competition. It's politics. It's about the future of the country, it's not about knowing you're a fan of the winning team.
 

Jiggyfly

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Watch the news it been on for several months. It keeps getting delayed by some mysterious power.
:lol

I watch and read the news everyday and nothing mysterious is going on.

But since you are on top of all this tell me what exactly is being held back?
 

Jiggyfly

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Republicans bet on Obama's all time low approval rating to drive whatever crap they put out there into office, but they turned off their base so hard by pushing Romney into the nomination, Obama slipped by with approval numbers in the 30s.

Hillary is very Romney like. She's uncharismatic and her social conservatism and wall street ties don't reflect the values of her party any more than Romney's liberalism and Northeast background reflected the Republican base. They are counting on Trump to win the election for them, it may work and should work maybe, but it's risky.
Hillary has a long track record of liberal causes, that is what many are forgetting or ignoring.

She is not making it up as she goes along like Rommney who had to veer much farther right than Hillary has had to go left.

Trump does not have a true base, Conservatives do not want as well as many evangelicals, especially since the Trans position he took.
 

townsend

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Romney's loss wasn't Bush v Gore close but it wasn't a clock cleaning. 65 mil to 60 mil in popular vote. A stronger candidate could have turned Obama's negatives in his favor. Most of the Bernie supporters in my FB feed are still posting negative about Hillary, and she hasn't motivated women to vote for her over Bernie in the numbers that she's declared herself entitled to. I think women under 45 along with Democrats under 45 will tune out on election day and the low-turnout Republican strategy will at least come within shouting range of working. I tried dismissing Trump for a long time because I don't get why anyone would vote for him, but there's a lot of reality TV fans out there as clueless on politics as he is.
Hillary won the nomination. She entrenched party democrats outnumbered new liberal millenials. Now you think that people who voted for Bernie will be okay with Trump taking the presidency? Yes it's difficult to win young voters as a moderate in a primary. It's pretty easy to win those same voters when they're comparing you to Trump. Yes a few rabid Bernie supporters my write him in, but the liberal base will turn out to spite the GOP.

Women under 45 won't turn out against Trump? Donald woman hating Trump? What are the odds that a guy who's already accused Hillary of playing her "woman card" is not going to do all the driving of young women for Hillary. Also don't underestimate a demographic who should fully understand that Roe v. Wade might be on the line. That the GOP has been at war with Planned Parenthood for the last 2 years, and has gone to great lengths to defund it. I think female turnout will be much higher than people anticipate.
 

Jiggyfly

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I've never really understood people that treat this like a sporting event. Like you root for the Democrats because that's your team, and you're going to talk about beating your rival Republicans ass or cleaning their clock.

Just never made sense to me but lots of people act that way like you do. It's not a competition. It's politics. It's about the future of the country, it's not about knowing you're a fan of the winning team.
I agree.
 

townsend

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I've never really understood people that treat this like a sporting event. Like you root for the Democrats because that's your team, and you're going to talk about beating your rival Republicans ass or cleaning their clock.

Just never made sense to me but lots of people act that way like you do. It's not a competition. It's politics. It's about the future of the country, it's not about knowing you're a fan of the winning team.
It was a creative metaphor. You know I also meant that Romney didn't have a literal clock that was dirty right? Like using words to mean other things than their strict dictionary purpose, to lend a since of narrative to what might otherwise be a dry topic. Yes it's a competition, with a clear winner and a clear loser. Usually flaws can be pointed to in the loser's camp.

By the way, as I've said for like the millionth time, I'm not a democrat. Just like you aren't a republican. I don't accuse you of being a republican, because I know your politics are more nuanced, and though they lean towards small government, I'm not so myopic as to fail to distinguish your politics from Republicans.

I hate the GOP and I make no bones of that. Frankly at this point, I'm concerned for the people who don't. But despising one thing does not make me a fanboy of the other. For someone who hates the two party system you sure play perfectly into their narrative.
 

L.T. Fan

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:lol

I watch and read the news everyday and nothing mysterious is going on.

But since you are on top of all this tell me what exactly is being held back?
How do you know. The evidential hearings have been delayed several times.
 

Clay_Allison

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Hillary won the nomination. She entrenched party democrats outnumbered new liberal millenials. Now you think that people who voted for Bernie will be okay with Trump taking the presidency? Yes it's difficult to win young voters as a moderate in a primary. It's pretty easy to win those same voters when they're comparing you to Trump. Yes a few rabid Bernie supporters my write him in, but the liberal base will turn out to spite the GOP.

Women under 45 won't turn out against Trump? Donald woman hating Trump? What are the odds that a guy who's already accused Hillary of playing her "woman card" is not going to do all the driving of young women for Hillary. Also don't underestimate a demographic who should fully understand that Roe v. Wade might be on the line. That the GOP has been at war with Planned Parenthood for the last 2 years, and has gone to great lengths to defund it. I think female turnout will be much higher than people anticipate.
It's hard to get young people to turn out to vote, period. Hillary got out a bunch of old people and the energy of the Bernie campaign died in NY's closed primary. They aren't going to vote for trump but a lot of them are massively disappointed that they get at best an establishment politician they hate. Young liberals were completely turned off by George McGovern's social conservatism and failed to turn out in droves when he ran against Nixon, who famously used the "Southern Strategy" to turn out angry rednecks to support him.
 

L.T. Fan

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:lol

I watch and read the news everyday and nothing mysterious is going on.

But since you are on top of all this tell me what exactly is being held back?
How do you know? The evidential hearings have been delayed several times.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/hillary-clinton-benghazi-testimony-delayed-emails-117771

Same process with the evidence the FBI and Justice department on the email server of hers and classified documents. You would have to be in a bubble not to be aware of this.
 

townsend

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It's hard to get young people to turn out to vote, period. Hillary got out a bunch of old people and the energy of the Bernie campaign died in NY's closed primary. They aren't going to vote for trump but a lot of them are massively disappointed that they get at best an establishment politician they hate. Young liberals were completely turned off by George McGovern's social conservatism and failed to turn out in droves when he ran against Nixon, who famously used the "Southern Strategy" to turn out angry rednecks to support him.
Don't underestimate the effect of Johnson refusing to run for office. When the sitting incumbent fucks up so badly that he can't even stand to run again, you're party is probably in a bad place. Yes liberals probably aren't going to turn out for the successor of the guy who embroiled us in Vietnam, and then turned tail, and yes the civil rights movement deeply alienated the white southerners the GOP has leaned on since. But the Southern strategy

The difference is that Republicans are still stuck getting all the worse headlines. Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, Bobby Jindhal, Dennis Hastert, and the entire clown caravan that is this primary has been murder on them. Meanwhile Barack's been able to quietly kill people with sky assassins, and no one gives a damn. No one has "Hey Hey BHO" chants.
 
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