Sturm: Troubling! Cowboys WR Dez Bryant running out of time to justify his massive contract

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

All eyes on Dez

It seems like every offseason for the last several years, there has been reason to write a piece on Dez Bryant and where his career is taking him and his team. He has been the face of this franchise for a few years running, as a bridge between the older Cowboys (Tony Romo and Jason Witten) and the new ones (Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott). He has more jerseys sold and more fans for life than almost anyone in the 19 seasons I have covered this team. He is adored and revered by almost all, local or national.

He got there because he was capable of things like this:



... and this:



... and this:




You won't often find wide receivers with that type of brute strength. His personality and charm simply run up the score, but at the core is a player who could not be stopped when he was determined to get into the end zone.

And yet, in this sport where recency bias plays a large role, you can definitely make the case that he needs a massive 2017 to re-establish his league dominance. Actually, you could make the case he needs a big 2017 to show he deserves his very well-compensated job in 2018.

Let me be clear: I have very little belief that the Cowboys and Jerry Jones would break up with Dez Bryant in the next 12 months. He means too much to the franchise as a face, a presence in the room, and just as a marketing machine of what the Cowboys are all about. Furthermore, we know how loyal Jerry is to his favorites, and there is no question that Dez would enjoy the benefits of a longer leash. But, from a simple question of playing to his level of compensation -- what the NFL has had its top players measured on since the inception of the salary cap -- there is no question that the clock is ticking to save his massive contract from being a massive disappointment.

Bryant has the second-largest contract of any wide receiver in the NFL. He signed his deal in the summer of 2015, when so many wide receivers were all getting new deals. Julio Jones got the biggest, at $71.2 million ($47 million guaranteed), and then Dez and Demaryius Thomas slid in right beneath with $70 million deals that were nearly identical -- save for Dez getting $45 million in practical guarantees and Thomas getting $43 million. These deals would take the three wide receivers from about ages 26 to 30, so we had some very interesting apples-to-apples comparisons for players in their primes at this most vital position.

So, I took the seven biggest receiver contracts (all over $50 million) since 2015 and ran a chart. Six of them (all but Antonio Brown) signed their deals in 2015 and Brown signed his in 2017. With that, we ran the statistical production of these seven receivers for the past two seasons. As you might imagine, Dez and his injury issues have put him well behind his colleagues:




I also took the liberty to rank them from first to seventh in each statistical category over the same span of time, so that we can see who is doing what:



From this, you can see that Dez ranks last in every single category, save for touchdowns, where he outranks Jeremy Maclin by one.

This is all very troubling, of course. If you are going to give your receiver top-of-the-industry dollars, then you are doing it with the idea that he will produce at his 2012-14 levels, when he was a top-five receiver in the league, thus putting himself in position to be paid like one. Back then, the top five were Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Andre Johnson, and then Dez Bryant. Vincent Jackson, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall were likely the next five.

You pay guys based on what they have done to set the pace for what they will do. Unfortunately, -- and, again, it is important to remember that this is through no fault of his own -- he has not played anywhere close to a top-five level. In fact, last season, he was 84th in receptions, 51st in yardage and tied for ninth in touchdowns. He had 3-4 incredible games, including his big night in Pittsburgh and a really big day against Green Bay in the playoffs.

The biggest issue with Bryant's production, obviously, is his injury situation. In 2016, he suffered a concussion and a hairline fracture in his knee. In 2015, he broke his foot twice and required surgery, and appeared try to gut through the pain. Nobody would ever question his toughness or amazing physical style. But, with players who fit this profile in any sport (but especially this one), they don't always age well.

By the way, if you would like some more rankings and stats, here are those same tables for 2015-16 as they pertain to the Cowboys themselves. If we are blaming the quarterback situation from 2015, or the rookie quarterback in 2016, that would apply to these players, too, right?



And the rankings of the four top receivers on the Cowboys against each other:



So, again, he can still catch the fade for a touchdown and is impossible to cover in the red zone, but as far as catches or yardage go, he is fourth out of four, and one of those four is a 35-year-old tight end in Witten. Surely, his luck has been bad and like any other contract, there is implied risk for both parties. But has he already left his prime, based on his "beast mode" style that puts too much stress on the body as he leaves his 20s?

Furthermore, there is a really interesting story revolving his contract, and the way the Cowboys have handled it relative to their handling of Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, or even Witten's. We know the drill around here. Every spring, we hear of cap stress and the need to find money. Every spring, the big earners get their contracts reworked to create this room.

But, according to everyone in the know, the Cowboys have not touched Dez Bryant's contract once since it was signed. No restructuring and no pushing the cap hits down the road. They are paying him out on schedule. Why is this important? Well, I will tell you. If -- and like I wrote at the top, it is a massive long shot with the way the Cowboys love him -- they wished to say goodbye to Dez Bryant if 2017 was just as disappointing as 2015 and 2016, they could actually save quite a bit of money against the cap.

In 2018, he counts $16.5 million to play versus just $8 million if they walked away from him. And then in the final year of 2019, he counts another $16.5 million and would cost just $4 million to cut. In other words, they had guaranteed Dez $45 million when he signed his deal and will have paid him all $45 million by the end of this season. All they would owe moving forward in Years 4 and 5 would be the prorated signing bonus. This may not mean anything, but in talking with a few different folks who make decisions, it is not a shock they haven't touched his deal. The feeling has always been that based on his style, when he loses his ability to simply overpower players as a receiver, his career may not have much of a second act. He doesn't have the wheels or the route-running genius to mature into a Larry Fitzgerald-type as he extends his career. Bryant is a special player with special and unique gifts. The question remains how long he can hold on to them while defenders try to attack his vulnerable knees and ankles.



Again, at this point, we would still all agree that a lot of this is circumstantial evidence and we all will still pencil Dez Bryant in for 1,200-1,300 yards and a dominant 2017. His 2012-14 run looks like it might have been his peak (well-timed to get his deal in 2015), but there is no reason he can't return to that in 2017, as he is still dominating, if you look at his signature moments in 2016. But, it isn't just about his missed time. He has played in 22 of 32 games in these past few years and, of receivers who played in 22 games or fewer in the past two years, Dez still trails Alshon Jeffery, Sammy Watkins, Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker and Calvin Johnson. Nelson (who did not play a snap in 2015) and Johnson (who did not play a snap in 2016) played just 16 games and outproduced Dez in every category.

And, while Jordy Nelson has the benefit of a quarterback situation that Bryant has not had, it is tough to say Alshon Jeffery or Sammy Watkins or Eric Decker have had amazing situations during this span. And nobody is handing any of those guys $70 million, either.

I know this will not be a popular opinion piece, and Dez Bryant is as beloved a player as I can recall, which means that even if he has another season like the past two, nobody would advocate moving on.

But I do think it is interesting that the Cowboys have not touched his deal this offseason when they needed some cash. I think they have responsibly put themselves in a good spot with his money. If they need to do something, they are in a very good position to do so.

Meanwhile, Bryant remains determined to re-establish his spot in the hierarchy of pass-catchers in this league. Reports of his offseason workouts all verify that he has not lost any sort of fire in his belly, and he certainly doesn't believe he has played his best football.

That is great news for all involved, because 2017 is a year when he needs to quiet any sort of talk about a decline.
 

vince

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Dez has undoubtedly underperformed IMO. I'm not seeing the deep threat I once saw and he's just injury plagued.
 

Cowboysrock55

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He just needs to be healthy for once. It's not that uncommon for a broken foot to sort of lead to other injuries as the player comes back from it. My hope is that now we are 2 years away from that thing and Dez is finally ready to have a healthy season again. If not then WR goes to the top of our priority list.
 

Simpleton

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I feel like Sturm is becoming quite a bit more sensationalist and alarmist as of late, basically hunting for exposure like your average media person would do as opposed to the thoughtful, grounded analysis he used to come out with.

Anyway, Dez was maybe 100% for about three quarters of one game in 2015. He rushed back from the foot injury in an attempt to win a game or two before Romo came back and then he was shut down with a few games left. The 2015 season should more or less be completely thrown out as far as any kind of meaningful analysis, aside from noting that he's suffered through injuries over the last two years.

As far as 2016 goes, in the 9 games after coming back from injury he put up 646 receiving yards and 7 TD's, extrapolate that over 16 games and it's about 1150 yards and 12 TD's. And all of this with a rookie quarterback that he clearly was working on developing a chemistry with, and which improved as the year went on.

1150 yards and 12 TD's is right there at the top with basically any of the top WR's in the game.

The fact that Sturm throws out 22 games without mentioning that one of those "games played" was the Eagles game where he played about 4 snaps shows the agenda Sturm brought into the analysis.
 

Genghis Khan

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I feel like Sturm is becoming quite a bit more sensationalist and alarmist as of late, basically hunting for exposure like your average media person would do as opposed to the thoughtful, grounded analysis he used to come out with.

Anyway, Dez was maybe 100% for about three quarters of one game in 2015. He rushed back from the foot injury in an attempt to win a game or two before Romo came back and then he was shut down with a few games left. The 2015 season should more or less be completely thrown out as far as any kind of meaningful analysis, aside from noting that he's suffered through injuries over the last two years.

As far as 2016 goes, in the 9 games after coming back from injury he put up 646 receiving yards and 7 TD's, extrapolate that over 16 games and it's about 1150 yards and 12 TD's. And all of this with a rookie quarterback that he clearly was working on developing a chemistry with, and which improved as the year went on.

1150 yards and 12 TD's is right there at the top with basically any of the top WR's in the game.

The fact that Sturm throws out 22 games without mentioning that one of those "games played" was the Eagles game where he played about 4 snaps shows the agenda Sturm brought into the analysis.

I agree. If Dez plays a fully healthy season in 2017 and puts up subpar numbers I might start yelling "troubling!" like Sturm.

But he's still a guy defenses have to pay attention to and I think that's important.
 

townsend

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Did anyone else watch the playoff game? Dez's performance was lights out. A couple injury plagued years are unfortunate, but his performance against Green Bay was Larry Fitzgeradesque.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Did anyone else watch the playoff game? Dez's performance was lights out. A couple injury plagued years are unfortunate, but his performance against Green Bay was Larry Fitzgeradesque.
Yeah the talent is there. Now we just need a healthy season out of him. And honestly I expect a bounce back healthy year. I think that broken foot had a lot to do with the problems we saw over the last two years.
 

Rev

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He is no Cole Beasley but I will take his production.
 

data

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Yah, Id like to see those 1st - 7th WR rankings on a per game basis. Not excusing Dez, but it'd be more accurate in gauging his performance.
 

boozeman

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Did anyone else watch the playoff game? Dez's performance was lights out. A couple injury plagued years are unfortunate, but his performance against Green Bay was Larry Fitzgeradesque.

You do realize it was against a pretty beaten up Green Bay secondary, right?

That is my deal with Bryant.

Look at those highlights. Woof. They are impressive.

Then you notice for a second that, well, it is not exactly Michael Irvin battling Deion Sanders.
 

p1_

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I have been hard on Dez since the big contract as well. It seems ironic that after signing the contract, he's been injured and his numbers have fallen, as you can see. Continued health has to be a concern at this point. And even if you cut him slack for the downtime, it is interesting that there has been no attempt to re-structure the deal in order to relieve cap pressure.
 

ravidubey

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Holdout, broken foot, new rookie QB with less offseason practice.

Simple explanations for his relative lack of production.

Now there's no reason for Dak and Dez to not be lights out. If Beasley leads the team in catches again, it will be more of the OC or Dak's fault than Dez's.
 

NoDak

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Now there's no reason for Dak and Dez to not be lights out. If Beasley leads the team in catches again, it will be more of the OC or Dak's fault than Dez's.
Randy Moss had four seasons in New England, three where he played all 16 games. Never lead the team in receptions once.

Was that Tom Brady's fault or Josh McDaniels'? Maybe Wes Welker's?
 

mcnuttz

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Hopefully they don't plan on forcing the ball to Dez, but it would be nice for he and Dak to develop the chemistry he & Romo had for a few good years.

If Dak can get confidence knowing the Dez is going to be where he needs to be, this offense gonna be skurry.
 
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