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McShay's way-too-early 2018 NFL mock draft
6:30 AM CT
Todd McShay
ESPN Senior Writer
Let's start by emphasizing the first part of the headline above: way-too-early. There's a reason we use that terminology for this piece. I have not studied tape on most of these players. I've simply done my best to match up many of the top players on my preliminary list with teams that make sense.
A few more important notes:
Most of my evaluations below came from what I've been able to see watching players in person or on TV. We still have a ton of work to do on everyone in the 2018 class.
Last year, 14 players who were featured in my way-too-early mock draft ended up going in the 2017 first round, and 20 total went in the first two rounds. As we saw with Jake Butt, injuries are impossible to predict and certainly impact a player's draft stock.
The draft order below was generated by Football Outsiders, using its early projected records for the 2017 season.
Here is my way-too-early NFL mock draft for 2018. Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk.
1. Cleveland Browns
Sam Darnold, QB, USC*
Watching WR JuJu Smith-Schuster in preparation for the 2017 draft, it was hard not to notice Darnold. He has the mental makeup, poise and arm strength you look for in an NFL quarterback.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming*
Allen is very physically gifted, but he needs to improve his decision-making and be a little more consistent with his footwork. He has good mobility and the arm strength to make any throw in the book.
3. New York Jets
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA*
Rosen is coming off a shoulder injury that knocked him out of his team's final six games last season. He has raw talent but needs to improve his accuracy; he has a 59.7 career completion rate.
4. Cleveland Browns*
Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson*
Wilkins finished second on Clemson with 13 tackles for loss in 2016, just behind Carlos Watkins, who had 13.5. Wilkins is very disruptive, racking up 10 pass breakups and five QB hurries last season.
*Acquired in a trade with the Texans
5. Minnesota Vikings
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama*
The No. 1-ranked WR recruit in 2015, Ridley has accounted for 161 catches in his two seasons in Tuscaloosa. That's 28.4 percent of the team's total in that span.
6. Denver Broncos
Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas*
Jefferson has started 18 games in his first two seasons with Texas. He has 15.5 tackles for loss in his career and ranked third on the team with 42 solo tackles in 2016.
7. Indianapolis Colts
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State*
Barkley had nearly 1,900 total yards in his true sophomore season at Penn State. His 22 total touchdowns ranked first among all Power 5 running backs last season.
EDITOR'S PICKS
McShay's best draft pick for all 32 teams
Sure, Christian McCaffrey and Jamal Adams were amazing picks, but so were a few late-round QBs and even a Division II TE. Todd McShay pegs his favorite picks for all 32 teams.
McShay's favorite 2017 NFL draft classes
Which teams did the best job of managing the board and finding good value throughout the 2017 draft? ESPN draft expert Todd McShay picks his six favorite classes.
8. Buffalo Bills
Derwin James, S, Florida State*
Listed at 6-foot-3 and 211 pounds, James has great size. He showed his potential as a true freshman by racking up a team-high 52 solo tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, four pass breakups and two forced fumbles. James missed all but two games in 2016 after tearing his meniscus versus Charleston Southern.
9. New Orleans Saints
Harold Landry, DE, Boston College
Landry gets a lot of much-deserved pub for his FBS-leading 16.5 sacks, but don't overlook his seven forced fumbles, six QB hurries and 22 total tackles for loss. That's elite all-around production. His game against Florida State, in which he had four tackles for loss and a forced fumble, really stood out.
10. Miami Dolphins
Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama*
Fitzpatrick has shown great ball production in his young career. As a true freshman, he had 11 pass breakups and two interceptions; last season, he led the Crimson Tide with six interceptions and added seven pass breakups. Defensive back looks like an early need for Miami.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arden Key, DE, LSU*
I'm not completely sold on Key. He shows flashes on tape (12 sacks in 2016) but needs to be more consistent. Scouts will dig deep on why Key took a leave of absence from the team earlier this year.
12. Chicago Bears
Tarvarus McFadden, CB, Florida State*
Listed at 6-foot-2, 198 pounds, McFadden is another big Florida State DB. He tied for the FBS lead with eight interceptions in 2016, an impressive feat in his first season as a full-time starter.
13. Washington Redskins
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M*
The Redskins could be in the market for a wide receiver after signing Terrelle Pryor Sr. to a one-year deal. Kirk can absolutely fly. He led the Aggies in catches for the second season in a row and added three punt-return TDs to his résumé in 2016.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama*
If Scarbrough stays healthy, he could be a top-15 pick. He was the best player on the field against Washington and Clemson (before getting hurt) in the College Football Playoff. At 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds, Scarbrough is a load to bring down.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
Derrick Nnadi, DT, Florida State
At 312 pounds, Nnadi is a disruptive force along the interior D-line who totaled 10.5 tackles for loss last season. He was particularly impressive against Clemson, with one sack, two total tackles for loss and one pass breakup.
16. Cincinnati Bengals
Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
Hurst has started just four games at Michigan, but I love what I've seen on tape so far. He was frequently Michigan's best defensive lineman during the games I studied. And remember: That group just had three D-linemen selected in the 2017 draft.
17. Los Angeles Rams
Josh Sweat, DE/OLB, Florida State*
An edge rusher with lots of intriguing tools, Sweat struggled early last season with a knee injury, but he finished with 4.5 sacks in his final three games. He should have a big year.
18. Los Angeles Chargers
Da'Shawn Hand, DT, Alabama
A highly ranked recruit in 2014, Hand should get more playing time in 2017, after Alabama lost four players from its dominant front seven to the NFL draft.
19. Detroit Lions
Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
Chubb's 21.5 tackles for loss last season (including 10 sacks) tied for sixth nationally last season. He also had seven QB hurries.
20. New York Giants
Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson*
At 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds, Ferrell has ideal size, and he made an immediate impact for the Tigers in his first season on the field. His 12.5 tackles for loss tied for third overall on Clemson's defense.
21. Baltimore Ravens
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida*
Callaway comes with character concerns -- he was accused of sexual assault and admitted to using drugs -- but he's freakishly talented. I'm interested to see how he handles himself both on and off the field this season.
22. Buffalo Bills*
Tyquan Lewis, DE, Ohio State
Lewis (6-foot-4, 265 pounds) has been a consistent performer for the Buckeyes, leading the team with eight sacks in each of the past two seasons.
*Acquired in a trade with the Chiefs
23. Arizona Cardinals
Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
The Cardinals will probably be in the QB market, but I'm not comfortable putting a name here that I'll regret three weeks from now, when I actually have time to watch the tape (as was the case with Mitch Leidner last year). McGlinchey had a chance to be a first-rounder this season, but he opted to return to school.
24. Atlanta Falcons
Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU*
Listed at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Sutton has ideal size. He has averaged nearly 17 yards per catch and scored 19 touchdowns the past two seasons.
25. Tennessee Titans
Cameron Smith, ILB, USC*
As a true freshman in 2015, Smith led the Trojans in solo tackles despite missing the final four games of the season because of a knee injury. He bounced back from the injury in 2016, showing more playmaking ability, including seven tackles for loss and again leading the team in solo takedowns with 45.
26. Carolina Panthers
Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State*
Hubbard, who is 6-foot-5, 265 pounds, was disruptive in his first season as a full-time starter, posting eight tackles for loss and four QB hurries.
27. Oakland Raiders
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU*
Guice popped while filling in for an injured Leonard Fournette last season, averaging 7.58 yards per carry (the third-highest among FBS running backs with at least 175 carries). He scored a TD once every 12 carries.
28. Dallas Cowboys
Vita Vea, DT, Washington*
At 332 pounds, Vea is a massive body to move in the middle of the defensive line. He flashed some pass-rushing potential last season, with five sacks.
29. Green Bay Packers
Deon Cain, WR, Clemson*
Listed at 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, Cain is a true big-play threat. He averaged 19 yards per catch last season for the Tigers. He should see more targets in 2017 with Mike Williams no longer in town.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
Iman Marshall, CB, USC*
Marshall has showed a promising skill set, starting 25 of 27 possible games in two seasons at USC. He has six interceptions and 17 pass breakups in that time.
31. Seattle Seahawks
Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma*
Brown is the son of Orlando Brown, who played nine NFL seasons and died in 2011. Like his dad, Brown is a mammoth left tackle prospect, listed at 6-foot-8, 360 pounds. He has started all 26 games for the Sooners the past two seasons.
32. New England Patriots
Da'Ron Payne, DL, Alabama
At 6-foot-2 and 319 pounds, Payne should get more work in the middle of Alabama's defensive line now that Dalvin Tomlinson is no longer in town.
6:30 AM CT
Todd McShay
ESPN Senior Writer
Let's start by emphasizing the first part of the headline above: way-too-early. There's a reason we use that terminology for this piece. I have not studied tape on most of these players. I've simply done my best to match up many of the top players on my preliminary list with teams that make sense.
A few more important notes:
Most of my evaluations below came from what I've been able to see watching players in person or on TV. We still have a ton of work to do on everyone in the 2018 class.
Last year, 14 players who were featured in my way-too-early mock draft ended up going in the 2017 first round, and 20 total went in the first two rounds. As we saw with Jake Butt, injuries are impossible to predict and certainly impact a player's draft stock.
The draft order below was generated by Football Outsiders, using its early projected records for the 2017 season.
Here is my way-too-early NFL mock draft for 2018. Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk.
1. Cleveland Browns
Sam Darnold, QB, USC*
Watching WR JuJu Smith-Schuster in preparation for the 2017 draft, it was hard not to notice Darnold. He has the mental makeup, poise and arm strength you look for in an NFL quarterback.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming*
Allen is very physically gifted, but he needs to improve his decision-making and be a little more consistent with his footwork. He has good mobility and the arm strength to make any throw in the book.
3. New York Jets
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA*
Rosen is coming off a shoulder injury that knocked him out of his team's final six games last season. He has raw talent but needs to improve his accuracy; he has a 59.7 career completion rate.
4. Cleveland Browns*
Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson*
Wilkins finished second on Clemson with 13 tackles for loss in 2016, just behind Carlos Watkins, who had 13.5. Wilkins is very disruptive, racking up 10 pass breakups and five QB hurries last season.
*Acquired in a trade with the Texans
5. Minnesota Vikings
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama*
The No. 1-ranked WR recruit in 2015, Ridley has accounted for 161 catches in his two seasons in Tuscaloosa. That's 28.4 percent of the team's total in that span.
6. Denver Broncos
Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas*
Jefferson has started 18 games in his first two seasons with Texas. He has 15.5 tackles for loss in his career and ranked third on the team with 42 solo tackles in 2016.
7. Indianapolis Colts
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State*
Barkley had nearly 1,900 total yards in his true sophomore season at Penn State. His 22 total touchdowns ranked first among all Power 5 running backs last season.
EDITOR'S PICKS
McShay's best draft pick for all 32 teams
Sure, Christian McCaffrey and Jamal Adams were amazing picks, but so were a few late-round QBs and even a Division II TE. Todd McShay pegs his favorite picks for all 32 teams.
McShay's favorite 2017 NFL draft classes
Which teams did the best job of managing the board and finding good value throughout the 2017 draft? ESPN draft expert Todd McShay picks his six favorite classes.
8. Buffalo Bills
Derwin James, S, Florida State*
Listed at 6-foot-3 and 211 pounds, James has great size. He showed his potential as a true freshman by racking up a team-high 52 solo tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, four pass breakups and two forced fumbles. James missed all but two games in 2016 after tearing his meniscus versus Charleston Southern.
9. New Orleans Saints
Harold Landry, DE, Boston College
Landry gets a lot of much-deserved pub for his FBS-leading 16.5 sacks, but don't overlook his seven forced fumbles, six QB hurries and 22 total tackles for loss. That's elite all-around production. His game against Florida State, in which he had four tackles for loss and a forced fumble, really stood out.
10. Miami Dolphins
Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama*
Fitzpatrick has shown great ball production in his young career. As a true freshman, he had 11 pass breakups and two interceptions; last season, he led the Crimson Tide with six interceptions and added seven pass breakups. Defensive back looks like an early need for Miami.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arden Key, DE, LSU*
I'm not completely sold on Key. He shows flashes on tape (12 sacks in 2016) but needs to be more consistent. Scouts will dig deep on why Key took a leave of absence from the team earlier this year.
12. Chicago Bears
Tarvarus McFadden, CB, Florida State*
Listed at 6-foot-2, 198 pounds, McFadden is another big Florida State DB. He tied for the FBS lead with eight interceptions in 2016, an impressive feat in his first season as a full-time starter.
13. Washington Redskins
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M*
The Redskins could be in the market for a wide receiver after signing Terrelle Pryor Sr. to a one-year deal. Kirk can absolutely fly. He led the Aggies in catches for the second season in a row and added three punt-return TDs to his résumé in 2016.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama*
If Scarbrough stays healthy, he could be a top-15 pick. He was the best player on the field against Washington and Clemson (before getting hurt) in the College Football Playoff. At 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds, Scarbrough is a load to bring down.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
Derrick Nnadi, DT, Florida State
At 312 pounds, Nnadi is a disruptive force along the interior D-line who totaled 10.5 tackles for loss last season. He was particularly impressive against Clemson, with one sack, two total tackles for loss and one pass breakup.
16. Cincinnati Bengals
Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
Hurst has started just four games at Michigan, but I love what I've seen on tape so far. He was frequently Michigan's best defensive lineman during the games I studied. And remember: That group just had three D-linemen selected in the 2017 draft.
17. Los Angeles Rams
Josh Sweat, DE/OLB, Florida State*
An edge rusher with lots of intriguing tools, Sweat struggled early last season with a knee injury, but he finished with 4.5 sacks in his final three games. He should have a big year.
18. Los Angeles Chargers
Da'Shawn Hand, DT, Alabama
A highly ranked recruit in 2014, Hand should get more playing time in 2017, after Alabama lost four players from its dominant front seven to the NFL draft.
19. Detroit Lions
Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
Chubb's 21.5 tackles for loss last season (including 10 sacks) tied for sixth nationally last season. He also had seven QB hurries.
20. New York Giants
Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson*
At 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds, Ferrell has ideal size, and he made an immediate impact for the Tigers in his first season on the field. His 12.5 tackles for loss tied for third overall on Clemson's defense.
21. Baltimore Ravens
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida*
Callaway comes with character concerns -- he was accused of sexual assault and admitted to using drugs -- but he's freakishly talented. I'm interested to see how he handles himself both on and off the field this season.
22. Buffalo Bills*
Tyquan Lewis, DE, Ohio State
Lewis (6-foot-4, 265 pounds) has been a consistent performer for the Buckeyes, leading the team with eight sacks in each of the past two seasons.
*Acquired in a trade with the Chiefs
23. Arizona Cardinals
Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
The Cardinals will probably be in the QB market, but I'm not comfortable putting a name here that I'll regret three weeks from now, when I actually have time to watch the tape (as was the case with Mitch Leidner last year). McGlinchey had a chance to be a first-rounder this season, but he opted to return to school.
24. Atlanta Falcons
Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU*
Listed at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Sutton has ideal size. He has averaged nearly 17 yards per catch and scored 19 touchdowns the past two seasons.
25. Tennessee Titans
Cameron Smith, ILB, USC*
As a true freshman in 2015, Smith led the Trojans in solo tackles despite missing the final four games of the season because of a knee injury. He bounced back from the injury in 2016, showing more playmaking ability, including seven tackles for loss and again leading the team in solo takedowns with 45.
26. Carolina Panthers
Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State*
Hubbard, who is 6-foot-5, 265 pounds, was disruptive in his first season as a full-time starter, posting eight tackles for loss and four QB hurries.
27. Oakland Raiders
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU*
Guice popped while filling in for an injured Leonard Fournette last season, averaging 7.58 yards per carry (the third-highest among FBS running backs with at least 175 carries). He scored a TD once every 12 carries.
28. Dallas Cowboys
Vita Vea, DT, Washington*
At 332 pounds, Vea is a massive body to move in the middle of the defensive line. He flashed some pass-rushing potential last season, with five sacks.
29. Green Bay Packers
Deon Cain, WR, Clemson*
Listed at 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, Cain is a true big-play threat. He averaged 19 yards per catch last season for the Tigers. He should see more targets in 2017 with Mike Williams no longer in town.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
Iman Marshall, CB, USC*
Marshall has showed a promising skill set, starting 25 of 27 possible games in two seasons at USC. He has six interceptions and 17 pass breakups in that time.
31. Seattle Seahawks
Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma*
Brown is the son of Orlando Brown, who played nine NFL seasons and died in 2011. Like his dad, Brown is a mammoth left tackle prospect, listed at 6-foot-8, 360 pounds. He has started all 26 games for the Sooners the past two seasons.
32. New England Patriots
Da'Ron Payne, DL, Alabama
At 6-foot-2 and 319 pounds, Payne should get more work in the middle of Alabama's defensive line now that Dalvin Tomlinson is no longer in town.
