Archer: AFC assistant: Cowboys would be wise to draft a QB early

Jiggyfly · Mar 3, 2016

Simpleton said:
Assuming health (big assumption), we are no more than a solid draft and a couple of mid-tier free agents away from being one of the top 3-5 teams in the NFC.

Yeah that is probably what really separates us, we are reliant on more injury prone guys than most.

Cowboysrock55 · Mar 3, 2016

Jiggyfly said:
Yeah that is probably what really separates us, we are reliant on more injury prone guys than most.

Especially Tony Romo. Which at this point is scary.

Jiggyfly · Mar 3, 2016

Cowboysrock55 said:
Especially Tony Romo. Which at this point is scary.

Yep.

ravidubey · Mar 3, 2016

Cowboysrock55 said:
No, you can't. And no draft pick should be judged by what they will do as a rookie.

An elite QB should be able to make quality starts (if the opportunity arises) before the end of his first year. He should be starting at the latest opening day as a sophomore.

If that's not true, then he shouldn't have been a top 5 pick. Show me a top five pick that did not at least flash as a rookie and most times that guy's a career bust.

Especially in Dallas where your QB takes Wednesday practices off and more reps go to the backups.

A 2nd round pick has more time, though in this case you eat one less year on their contract and are stuck trying to re-sign them after their rookie deals when they've had minimal experience (see Garoppolo and Osweiler).

So if you're telling me you don't trust Wentz or Goff to play this season then it's a definite no. That's what separates the top QBs from the rest.

Simpleton · Mar 3, 2016

ravidubey said:
An elite QB should be able to make quality starts (if the opportunity arises) before the end of his first year. He should be starting at the latest opening day as a sophomore.

If that's not true, then he shouldn't have been a top 5 pick. Show me a top five pick that did not at least flash as a rookie and most times that guy's a career bust.

Especially in Dallas where your QB takes Wednesday practices off and more reps go to the backups.

A 2nd round pick has more time, though in this case you eat one less year on their contract and are stuck trying to re-sign them after their rookie deals when they've had minimal experience (see Garoppolo and Osweiler).

So if you're telling me you don't trust Wentz or Goff to play this season then it's a definite no. That's what separates the top QBs from the rest.

I would trust both of them to play this season. Not that I'd expect them to be able to lead us to the playoffs if Romo theoretically missed the entire season, but they would certainly be our back-up and I would trust them if we had to play 2-4 games without Romo.

Cowboysrock55 · Mar 3, 2016

ravidubey said:
An elite QB should be able to make quality starts (if the opportunity arises) before the end of his first year.

If that's all you're looking for absolutely. Wentz, Goff and Lynch aren't going to fall over and shit themselves on the field. I actually think Goff is a pretty polished passer who could do very well right away in the NFL. But ultimately it's going to take a year before any of these guys are ready to take a team like ours to the playoffs as a full time starter. May even take a couple of years to get to that level. But that's ok because we still have Romo. And thus don't have to waste 2 years of having little to no shot at the playoffs.

ravidubey · Mar 3, 2016

Simpleton said:
I would trust both of them to play this season. Not that I'd expect them to be able to lead us to the playoffs if Romo theoretically missed the entire season, but they would certainly be our back-up and I would trust them if we had to play 2-4 games without Romo.

This is what needs to be said.

If someone is a project who "could use some grooming", they don't belong in the top 5. If Romo goes down in TC, then the #4 overall pick becomes our starter and doesn't look back, period, end of discussion.

I can get a guy who "could use grooming" in the 2nd round, or by trading down, or the 1st round next year when I'm (hopefully) picking in the 20's.

Simpleton · Mar 3, 2016

ravidubey said:
This is what needs to be said.

If someone is a project who "could use some grooming", they don't belong in the top 5. If Romo goes down in TC, then the #4 overall pick becomes our starter and doesn't look back, period, end of discussion.

I can get a guy who "could use grooming" in the 2nd round, or by trading down, or the 1st round next year when I'm (hopefully) picking in the 20's.

Yea, I mean, if you put Wentz or Goff on a team as talented as Tampa Bay or Tennessee was last year I think you could get 4-6 wins and a decent TD:INT ratio out of them just like the Titans and Bucs got out of Mariota and Winston.

When I say give them 2 years to learn it's not because I think they would flop around like a dead fish if thrown out there as a rookie, it's just because it's a luxury that we have that would also increase their likelihood of being successful.

Genghis Khan · Mar 3, 2016

ravidubey said:
This is what needs to be said.

If someone is a project who "could use some grooming", they don't belong in the top 5. If Romo goes down in TC, then the #4 overall pick becomes our starter and doesn't look back, period, end of discussion.

I can get a guy who "could use grooming" in the 2nd round, or by trading down, or the 1st round next year when I'm (hopefully) picking in the 20's.

QB is a huge exception to that.

ravidubey · Mar 3, 2016

Genghis Khan said:
QB is a huge exception to that.

I think a top five guy had better be flat out ready to play at any position.

No one says play them opening day of their rookie season, but "grooming" doesn't last beyond half a season for a top five guy, QB or not.

Maybe especially QB.

They have to flash strong in preseason and be the primary backup in the regular season. They are the future, and once they start the previous starter should either accept a backup role or initiate trade talks.

dallen · Mar 4, 2016

If we hit on our #4 pick and get Lynch in the 2nd I promise to take a week off from badmouthing Jerry

Genghis Khan · Mar 4, 2016

ravidubey said:
I think a top five guy had better be flat out ready to play at any position.

No one says play them opening day of their rookie season, but "grooming" doesn't last beyond half a season for a top five guy, QB or not.

Maybe especially QB.

They have to flash strong in preseason and be the primary backup in the regular season. They are the future, and once they start the previous starter should either accept a backup role or initiate trade talks.

That thought process couldn't be dumber to me.

ravidubey · Mar 4, 2016

Genghis Khan said:
That thought process couldn't be dumber to me.

OK, Genghis, can you come up with a top 5 pick QB who ultimately succeeded but didn't flash or show promise his rookie season?

Only Philip Rivers comes to mind, but he lacked PT only because he was playing behind Drew Brees who had been injury-prone to that point but suddenly wasn't.

Had Brees stumbled, Philips would have played no doubt in my mind.

The original premise was that Goff/Wentz would be best suited to learning for a year. My point was so would anyone, so why go top 5 when a standard 1st or 2nd rounder could do as well.

Simp clarified that he believed either could start as rookie if called upon. IMO that's something a top five pick had better be capable of.

Cowboysrock55 · Mar 4, 2016

ravidubey said:
OK, Genghis, can you come up with a top 5 pick QB who ultimately succeeded but didn't flash or show promise his rookie season?

Only Philip Rivers comes to mind, but he lacked PT only because he was playing behind Drew Brees who had been injury-prone to that point but suddenly wasn't.

Had Brees stumbled, Philips would have played no doubt in my mind.

The original premise was that Goff/Wentz would be best suited to learning for a year. My point was so would anyone, so why go top 5 when a standard 1st or 2nd rounder could do as well.

Simp clarified that he believed either could start as rookie if called upon. IMO that's something a top five pick had better be capable of.

Haha didn't Aikman lose every start as a rookie?

ravidubey · Mar 4, 2016

Cowboysrock55 said:
Haha didn't Aikman lose every start as a rookie?

lol yes he did, but to his credit I don't think Roger Staubach would have had a chance to do much with that 89 team.

They were awful. I watched them get systematically abused losing 28-0 to an OK New Orleans team in the home opener.

I still thought Aikman showed promise, like when he threw for 379 vs the Cardinals in spite of getting knocked out.

Shula's offense hung him out to dry too, despite having Herschel Walker on the team.

Genghis Khan · Mar 4, 2016

ravidubey said:
OK, Genghis, can you come up with a top 5 pick QB who ultimately succeeded but didn't flash or show promise his rookie season?

Only Philip Rivers comes to mind, but he lacked PT only because he was playing behind Drew Brees who had been injury-prone to that point but suddenly wasn't.

Had Brees stumbled, Philips would have played no doubt in my mind.

The original premise was that Goff/Wentz would be best suited to learning for a year. My point was so would anyone, so why go top 5 when a standard 1st or 2nd rounder could do as well.

Simp clarified that he believed either could start as rookie if called upon. IMO that's something a top five pick had better be capable of.

Probably, but that's not the same thing as what you were saying.

Smitty · Mar 4, 2016

ravidubey said:
OK, Genghis, can you come up with a top 5 pick QB who ultimately succeeded but didn't flash or show promise his rookie season?

Only Philip Rivers comes to mind, but he lacked PT only because he was playing behind Drew Brees who had been injury-prone to that point but suddenly wasn't.

Had Brees stumbled, Philips would have played no doubt in my mind.

The original premise was that Goff/Wentz would be best suited to learning for a year. My point was so would anyone, so why go top 5 when a standard 1st or 2nd rounder could do as well.

Simp clarified that he believed either could start as rookie if called upon. IMO that's something a top five pick had better be capable of.

Steve McNair.

townsend · Mar 5, 2016

ravidubey said:
OK, Genghis, can you come up with a top 5 pick QB who ultimately succeeded but didn't flash or show promise his rookie season?

Only Philip Rivers comes to mind, but he lacked PT only because he was playing behind Drew Brees who had been injury-prone to that point but suddenly wasn't.

Had Brees stumbled, Philips would have played no doubt in my mind.

The original premise was that Goff/Wentz would be best suited to learning for a year. My point was so would anyone, so why go top 5 when a standard 1st or 2nd rounder could do as well.

Simp clarified that he believed either could start as rookie if called upon. IMO that's something a top five pick had better be capable of.

Jeff George, Vinny Testaverde, Alex Smith, and Trent Dilfer (#6 overall but still) all have had success after getting away from the shitty teams that drafted them.

Clay_Allison · Mar 5, 2016

ravidubey said:
OK, Genghis, can you come up with a top 5 pick QB who ultimately succeeded but didn't flash or show promise his rookie season?

Only Philip Rivers comes to mind, but he lacked PT only because he was playing behind Drew Brees who had been injury-prone to that point but suddenly wasn't.

Had Brees stumbled, Philips would have played no doubt in my mind.

The original premise was that Goff/Wentz would be best suited to learning for a year. My point was so would anyone, so why go top 5 when a standard 1st or 2nd rounder could do as well.

Simp clarified that he believed either could start as rookie if called upon. IMO that's something a top five pick had better be capable of.

This idea that a second rounder could do as well is what's crazy. If a second rounder sits a year, they aren't going to get taller, more athletic, or gain a bigger arm. The difference is the level of talent of the guy you're grooming. You're saying if a QB is somewhat raw, you might as well draft a far less talented guy at a lower draft position. If you think one guy can be a pro bowler with a year learning an NFL offense and another guy could develop into a borderline starter, the difference in value is striking.

Cowboysrock55 · Mar 5, 2016

townsend said:
Jeff George, Vinny Testaverde, Alex Smith, and Trent Dilfer (#6 overall but still) all have had success after getting away from the shitty teams that drafted them.

Shit even Manning sucked horribly as a rookie. It's the standard. Guys who succeed right away like Luck are very rare.

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