Sturm's Draft Series

[h=1]Bob Sturm's 2016 Draft Profile Series: Ohio State's LB Darron Lee Requires Further Development[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State - 6'2, 235 - RS Soph - #43

As you can no doubt pick up on, this year is going to be a year with many off-ball, run-and-hit linebackers up in the top few rounds as we seem to have an uncommon number of top athletes at this position coming out. This is surely not a coincidence as the game is changing to require more of these players, while at the same time coaches at the college level are trying to convert players from other positions to this vital spot. They want to find guys who can deal with the zone-read scheme that requires highly athletic defenders to minimize the numbers advantage the offense desires.

However, when you give each of these players (Myles Jack, Jaylon Smith, Reggie Ragland, and now, Darron Lee) the 200-snap treatment, you can find that they all do things differently. And, in the case of Darron Lee, you also must factor in his age and how little he has played at this position in his life. Lee was a standout QB and Safety at the high school level and has only in the last 3 years converted to linebacker. And, to be sure, there are times where he does look like a guy who struggles with some of the basic things a linebacker must do well. But, when he shows you that flash of what he could be, you tend to try to focus on the positives and trust your coaches to figure everything out by the time he turns 22 or 23. Development is a massive part of the draft game in that while we want fully polished prospects, the reality is there are some who have played just 2 seasons at the college level at a position they had never played before. So, do we focus on what he doesn't do well or fixate on the potential? It is not always an exact science.





What I liked: What does Darron Lee do well? You could argue of the 4-3 linebackers he is the very best at blitzing off the edge and getting to the QB after disposing of a RB trying to pick him up. If you seek plays behind the line of scrimmage, his 27.5 tackles for loss and his 12 sacks in 2 years show you nearly 40 explosives and a rate that is fantastic. He also finds the ball pretty well through the traffic that an off-ball linebacker will deal with while also setting the edge on runs that go outside. He has a fine motor and will continue to battle until the whistle. He flies to the ball and rallies with his teammates as well as mirroring a player in the open field to shut down any escape routes. But, the thing that will likely get someone to gamble on him pretty high up the board will be his physical traits that include very good speed and long arms.





What I did not like: There is a disconcerting lack of physicality when taking on and then shedding blocks that sticks with you and almost seems to advertise that he is a conversion linebacker. I wish I had some great examples of linebackers who lacked thump in college but then developed that physicality at the NFL level, but I really don't remember finding many who grow into that type of player. Also, and maybe even more of an issue, he doesn't seem to be a candidate for man coverage down the field. In zone drops - where he never really has to turn and run - he is fine and will actually excel. But, put him in a spot where he has to flip those hips and he certainly doesn't seem comfortable. This is not uncommon at this position, but you would hope a conversion safety would give you more utility to man-up with a tight end or running back, but I am not sure Lee is anywhere close to Jack or even Smith in this category. So, while he appears to be a 3-down linebacker, we must not get carried away about how developed his full skill set is.





Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: As we have said on numerous occasions, there is a greater demand for off-ball linebackers who can run than ever before and Darron Lee is going to have a chance to follow Ryan Shazier before him from Ohio State and attempt to match that production. But, I don't think he is Shazier's quality and for me he would be down a tier or two from the top players at this particular position.

That said, if I circle back to the top theme of this profile, it would be that he demonstrates one of the real quandaries about this entire process - is he what he is now or what he will be? If you have great confidence in developing players and think that Lee right now at 20-years old is very good and yet is only scratching the surface of his potential, then you might find this player is right up your alley. Given the experiences in Dallas at that sort of thing, I might let someone else try their hand at it.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

[h=1]Bob Sturm's 2016 NFL draft series: Big, physical WR Michael Thomas could help Dez Bryant torture Cowboys opponents[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State - 6'3, 210 - RS Junior - #3

Almost everyone and their brother agrees that LaQuon Treadwell is far and away the best wide receiver in this 2016 class of draftees. But, from there, it seems to be what my draft mentor has always told me - "What flavor of ice cream do you like?" Which simply means, in the draft game, there aren't always right or wrong answers about how you rank the next group. Rather, it is a question of whether you personally prefer strawberry or vanilla. It is a matter of preference or taste and while we put all the wide receivers into the same bin for easy designations, we all are certainly aware that every wide receiver has different specialties and roles on a given team. Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley are both wide receivers, but they do things about as differently as you can do things and have wildly different roles where the team would never consider one of them to fill in for the other one. The two play the same general position, but there is nothing "the same" about them.

So, as you look at this class of Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Will Fuller, Michael Thomas, and others we have not done yet like Sterling Shephard, Braxton Miller, and Pharoh Cooper you can see a host of names in the top 50, but where they are stacked will depend completely on what a team feels it needs. Who is the second best WR will depend entirely on who is doing the shopping, because there is a star or two in this group (history shows), but so much of that will depend on circumstances.

Thomas is part of an absolutely loaded offense at Ohio State that has won 25 of their last 26 games and would certainly have a claim for the best program in the country these days. Ezekiel Elliot, Miller, and Thomas will all be in the Top 50 of this draft as skill position players and therefore all benefit each other by attracting defensive attention and favorable matchups for all involved. We must remember that this stacks the odds in the favor of these players and may not be the case at their next destination. But, for now, you can see why slowing down the Buckeyes offense was a very rare accomplishment, despite the QB chaos that existed.





What I liked: Thomas is a very large 6'3, 210 and plays well with this large frame to create space for himself and always get an inside position. He has a solid catch radius and like some of the better possession receivers we have seen (like his uncle Keyshawn Johnson) does not allow a defensive back to reach around him to knock the ball away very often. But, to call him a possession receiver does not account for his ability to get deep and to shake off a corner with a move after a short catch. There is plenty here to indicate he is a very complete receiver that may not dominate in one department but perhaps does all things pretty well across the board. He is a bear to try to tackle once he catches the ball and does play with a proper mean disposition when he has the ball in his hand. I also like the way he sets up his routes with some sharp movements. I am not suggesting he runs the full route tree, but the routes he does run are well done most of the time to ensure an easy catch position. He also is great at inducing a pass interference with positioning as well. His technique is very solid.





What I did not like: He certainly does not have a top gear that will terrify defensive backs. If they can deal with his moves at the top of the stem, most NFL corners will be fine making sure he doesn't get behind them very often as he lacks a little juice. Also, you will see an amount of body catching, but nothing significant. With blocking downfield he will at least go through the motions, but he is no Treadwell in trying to rack up a body count. He is OK but not fantastic in the aerial game on the level of Josh Doctson or Corey Coleman.





Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: Thomas is yet another Buckeye who will be highly coveted on draft day, and it will be up to the particular teams in mind to sort through whether they are looking for a home run hitter or a Swiss army knife type. If they want that guy who can do everything pretty well, Thomas could get the call even in Round 1.

He is certainly one who stands to gain by putting up a great 40-time in the Combine, but either way his tape stacks up pretty well as the guy you want on your side on 3rd down to run slants, drags, and comebacks to move the chains and to keep the drive rolling down the field. In Dallas, he may perhaps be a bit redundant with Dez's style, however, you could also argue you can never have too many weapons and another big, physical receiver could further a long day for any defense.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

[h=1]Bob Sturm's 2016 NFL Draft Series: Louisville's Sheldon Rankins is a force in the middle, but is he the right DT for Cowboys?[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville - 6'2, 303 - Senior - #98

With over two months until 2016 Draft Weekend, it would seem from this distance that the position that is deepest in the top few rounds of the draft this season is defensive tackle. Now, granted, there are 3 types of defensive tackles (3-4 nose, 4-3 1-technique, and 4-3 3-technique), but when it comes to many options of great Top 50 or Top 100 quality, it seems to be those interior dancing bears in the middle.

Sheldon Rankins is a pretty interesting study out of Louisville in this category as a player who absolutely took over the headlines in Mobile at the Senior Bowl in late January as one of the very best interior defensive linemen who was impossible for any of the guards to stay in front of in the drills. He was too quick and too elusive and it showed. This certainly matched some of his best work with Louisville over the last 2 years where he has been a very productive player with 40.5 explosives (sacks + tackles for loss) in 24 games while playing every single position on the defensive line. While he was primarily a 1-technique lined up in the A-Gap between the center and the guard, he would also play the 3-tech and at times in 2015 he would play a large amount of defensive tackle and show his remarkable combination of size and quickness.

To study Rankins, I used the games against Clemson, NC State, Florida State and the bowl game against Texas A&M. He offered plenty of material to consider.





What I liked: The first thing to pop out when you lock in on Rankins is an uncommon amount of disruption from the inside on a guy who uses quickness and relentless battle to cause trouble. Now, he did not always find what he was looking for, but his activity level seems higher than most in his class and he does not give up on a play. He uses long arms to control his blocker and really has an ability to move them at his whim, manipulating a lone blocker out of the way to go get the ball carrier. In pass rush, he could use a few more moves, but once he gets a little crease, he closes fast on his target for his size. Again, there are times where he is moving where you have a hard time believing you are looking at a guy who weighs 300 pounds. He plays low and strong and gets penetration. He possesses high motor and high intelligence as he sniffs out a lot of plays. It appears he is getting held on many occasions. His shifty approach likely leads to this result. Fights hard against double teams which are frequent.





What I did not like: I do wish he was just a bit stronger as there are certainly times where he gets tied up. And, to be fair, he doesn't seem to get in passing lanes as much as you might see as his lower approach helps with leverage but doesn't help in impeding the vision of a QB. He also has lapses where you don't hear from him, but I will happily exchange that for the stretches against Florida State late where he simply took the game over for a few series in a row.





Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: Rankins is a real impressive prospect who will be highly valued on draft day. As we said, he is at a really deep position, but not every defensive tackle has the ability to consistently make plays behind the line of scrimmage like he can. Those players are considered potential 3-techniques, which are rare in this particular draft. Rankins looks like he can fill that role, but has the utility to move up and down your line, which only enhances his potential upside.

You certainly can't quantify one other item I wanted to mention, but he is just a joy to watch play football. He seems to have a characteristic that his mates follow into battle and he can provide that leadership and swagger for the unit. It would certainly be overused to suggest Warren Sapp's name on this front, but he seems like that kind of player.

From a Dallas standpoint, there is no question that he is exactly what they have needed to shore up the middle of that line. In a draft with so many different defensive tackles, the styles should be examined. Would you want a 1-tech that could keep your linebackers clean and take on double team blocks while not budging an inch? Well, that may be more of a job for Alabama's Jarran Reed. But, if you want a 3-tech that might allow Tyrone Crawford to move down to the 1-tech or have interchangeable tackles that can switch even in pre-snap, then Rankins could be your guy.

Of course, the bigger question is whether either of them would be around at #34. They both seem to be of the 1st round quality, but perhaps having as many as 10 defensive tackles in the Top 50 could push some down the board. The odds are that unless the Cowboys would make a trade up, a guy like Rankins is probably gone in Round 1. There are not many with his skills in 2016.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

I love Rankins. If we aren't taking a QB I'd be all for a trade down and draft him.

Yea, Rankins would be a candidate if we trade down although I suspect that there would be guys I'd like ahead of him assuming we were picking around 10-15. If he's there at 34 he's a no brainer, I doubt he will be but we should definitely have options at DT at that spot one way or another.

Simpleton said:

Yea, Rankins would be a candidate if we trade down although I suspect that there would be guys I'd like ahead of him assuming we were picking around 10-15. If he's there at 34 he's a no brainer, I doubt he will be but we should definitely have options at DT at that spot one way or another.

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Yeah after the Senior Bowl I'd be surprised to see Rankins fall out of the top 15.

Simpleton said:

Yea, Rankins would be a candidate if we trade down although I suspect that there would be guys I'd like ahead of him assuming we were picking around 10-15. If he's there at 34 he's a no brainer, I doubt he will be but we should definitely have options at DT at that spot one way or another.

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No way he's there. Sadly, he would be perfect to put in at 3-T and start getting some interior pressure.

At 34, we are probably looking at someone like Vernon Butler. That would work for me as well.

[h=1]Bob Sturm's NFL Draft Profile Series: Meet Jalen Ramsey - the Best Player In This Draft[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida State - 6'1, 202 - Junior - #8

Anyone who analyzes the draft has certain things that they look for and credit or debit accordingly based on characteristics we seek. I confess that my personal biases for defensive backs often revolve around how much they appear to enjoy or avoid tackling. I realize that I might not have realized how great Deion Sanders was because he seemed allergic to contact at times, but overall this has served me well. Guys do fall through the cracks, however - like last year, Marcus Peters was that guy who had no use for run support. And then he won defensive player of the year.

This shows us that if there are 10-12 components of a player's makeup that we value, we should not overvalue the effect of one. We should look at the full composite of the player and project accordingly.

But, what if we stumble upon a player that appears to have no component of concern? What if Jalen Ramsey from Florida State appears to be the most complete defensive back that the last decade can offer? Because from where I sit today, I am not sure who I would value higher. He seems to be able to play free safety, strong safety, outside corner, or slot. He seems to be proficient at zone defense or man coverage. He seems to be great at pass defense and run support. In other words, this guy is dripping with off the charts grades across the board. Ramsey was a 5-star recruit originally headed for USC, but changed to Florida State where he played 3 seasons. In 2013, he played a lot of reserve time at corner. 2014, he started and dominated at safety. And in 2015, he switched back to corner and was very good. To top it off, he was magnificent at special teams, too. There is no such thing as "bust proof", but I am tempted here to declare it.





What I liked: He is a very big corner who also possesses track star speed, a disposition to hit and hurt, and a compete level that grows as the game gets later and you can see that his 4th Quarter/close game motor even burns hotter. He has very fluid athleticism and yet has the characteristics as a tackler that you look for in a football player. He is the classic hybrid defender that likely can play anywhere you want on the defense as he played a lot like a linebacker in 2014 and then showed he could haul off and take the boundary side as a lock-down corner in 2015 and transition just as well. As a blitzer, he might be the most natural in the bunch as every time he is sent off the corner, the play is getting disrupted. He has blinding speed off the edge and in one game last season had consecutive plays where he blitzed off the edge and broke up a pass and then chased speedster Philip Dorsett (4.33 40 time) down the seam and picked off the game-clinching interception. He is a playmaker and can do that in so many ways.





What I did not like: Not much. He will guess on plays a bit and watch the QB and that caused him to lose his man a time or two. I don't like this, but it is some of the collateral damage of an instinctive DB who is looking to make plays. You want disciplined technique, but also to allow a playmaker to try to make plays. It is a slippery slope. But, when he does make a mistake and gets beat, his responses are legendary where he then bounces back and takes the game over. He competes so hard and I think he is motivated by the occasional mistake. He also drops interceptions 3-4 times in the 8 games I watched over 2 seasons.





Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: For me, this is likely the best player in the draft. Position versatility, ability to come in and be the best player in the Cowboys secondary (regardless of which position it might be), and a 21-year old who looks like stardom in the NFL is not far away. Jalen Ramsey sure checks all of the boxes I would look for when you discuss things you are looking for in a Top 5 pick.

I am skeptical about whether he would be available for the Cowboys and whether the Cowboys would want to spend another 1st round pick on a defensive back, but it sure seems like if he is around at their pick that this player is the type you can feel great about. I am asked frequently where would he play if he were with the Cowboys which is a question we still ask about Byron Jones. I think the Cowboys want Jones to be their full time deep safety from here on out, which might put Ramsey as a box safety or as a corner. I am not that hung up on this question at the moment because I don't know the future of the personnel situation with Brandon Carr or even Mo Claiborne. But, I do know this - zone or man, corner or safety - Jalen Ramsey is going to be the best defensive back on his team for a long, long time. And if that happens to be Dallas, then let's hope the coaches understand how to use his skill set properly and to maximize his ability. I think he is a star.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

Here we go

dallen said:

Here we go

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Sounds like our scouts calling Claiborne the next Deion.

Jesus f'ing Christ on a rubber crutch Sturm.

There are definitely alot of things to love about Ramsey and I totally understand why alot of people love him. He has unbelievable size/speed/athleticism and he has played a bunch of different roles at a high level in college, but I just can't get over the fact that the guy has only 3 career INT's, none as a junior, and a propensity to drop INT's that hit him in the hands, including one in the BCS semifinal last year against Oregon that would've taken points off the board.

I can acknowledge that if we draft him we will have one of the most athletic, versatile secondaries in the league, a secondary capable of matching up with all of the different ways offenses are using TE's and RB's these days. He will most likely end up being a very good player in the league, with a chance at stardom, but I just can't justify taking a DB who could not produce INT's in college over a potential franchise QB.

It'd be one thing if Goff or Wentz were guys slated to go in the late 1st like Christian Ponder or some such, but they aren't, they are almost universally seen as top 10 prospects. Even aside from QB, Bosa is just as good of a DE prospect as Ramsey is a DB prospect.

The dropping INT thing is a big deal to me as well.

You get your hands on that many footballs, you are something less than elite if you drop them. Plus these came from ACC QBs a lot of the time.

boozeman said:

The dropping INT thing is a big deal to me as well.

You get your hands on that many footballs, you are something less than elite if you drop them. Plus these came from ACC QBs a lot of the time.

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Sturm isn't worried...

Yeah the lack of int's is troubling but that cannot be the deal breaker IMO.

What are his PBU numbers.

Also it seems he played a lot of hybrid LB which would not correlate to a lot of int's.

How are his actual coverage skills does he track the ball well?

I need to know the answer to all of these questions before I just write him off.

There is a reason he is consistently rated as a top 4 player in this draft.

Iamtdg said:

Bob Sturm's 2016 Draft Profile Series: Ohio State's LB Darron Lee Requires Further Development

if I circle back to the top theme of this profile, it would be that he demonstrates one of the real quandaries about this entire process - is he what he is now or what he will be? If you have great confidence in developing players and think that Lee right now at 20-years old is very good and yet is only scratching the surface of his potential, then you might find this player is right up your alley. Given the experiences in Dallas at that sort of thing, I might let someone else try their hand at it.

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Yep, Dallas has inferior coaches who can't develop players.

boozeman said:

The dropping INT thing is a big deal to me as well.

You get your hands on that many footballs, you are something less than elite if you drop them. Plus these came from ACC QBs a lot of the time.

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It's funny, you watch those highlight clips and it's like ball banging off his hands after ball banging off his hands. The INT in the clips isn't actually very impressive. He had help over the top and wasn't even that close to the receiver.

I put guys like Ramsey and Myles Jack in the same group. Tremendous athletes who I'm sure we can use on defense. But I don't want them at 4. It's just too high for what they are. Of course Ramsey won't be around if we trade down. Jack very well could be. Ultimatley, I'd rather move down and get a stud DT or even a DE. Think how awesome we could have this Dline looking after trading down and drafting Sheldon Rankins and then turning around and taking Emmanuel Ogbah in the second round. Basically swapping our high first rounder into 2 impact D-lineman. You'd still have another second likely to take a DB/RB/LBer.

Jiggyfly said:

Yeah the lack of int's is troubling but that cannot be the deal breaker IMO.

What are his PBU numbers.

Also it seems he played a lot of hybrid LB which would not correlate to a lot of int's.

How are his actual coverage skills does he track the ball well?

I need to know the answer to all of these questions before I just write him off.

There is a reason he is consistently rated as a top 4 player in this draft.

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I'd really like to know the QBR of throws at him. It's one of my favorite statistics when judging a corner.

Jerry's probably trying to figure out how to move ahead of San Diego for Ramsey.

If he was Patrick Peterson would there be an issue taking him at 4?

Cowboysrock55 said:

I'd really like to know the QBR of throws at him. It's one of my favorite statistics when judging a corner.

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It would be hard to get that with him since he played all over the place and a lot of it in the box.