Sturm: Explaining the 4-Year Conveyor Belt of Personnel

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm , Special contributor

One of the many items I wanted to touch on today is something I reference periodically over the course of the year, but perhaps am guilty of never fully discussing at length.

It is the concept of the 4-year conveyor belt of talent for the Dallas Cowboys or, more accurately, for any NFL Franchise under this current CBA.

The 4-year conveyor belt is how teams fill their rosters out after they have selected their core players. You have the ability to pick between 8-10 core players and the other 43-45 players on your roster are all subject to the system that pushes players on and off your roster at the rate of about every 4 years. And 4 years happens exceptionally fast.

Let's take a look:

We can use the 2016 or 2017 Dallas Cowboys cap, so for the simplicity of this exercise, let's use 2017. Also, let's assume Tony Romo is still your starting QB, because it is easier to explain this all and since he was the original plan at QB1 in 2017, anyway. Also, it is tough to say that the Cowboys have made any decisions based on the deduction that he will be gone, yet. I don't believe any real dominoes have fallen with regards to a "Post Romo era" in the contract/business side of things, so roll with me just for this example.

Basically, the Cowboys core players with regards to contracts are the following - Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Tyrone Crawford, Tyron Smith, Sean Lee, Ezekiel Elliott, Orlando Scandrick, Travis Frederick, and Cedric Thornton. That is 10 names with each of them valued in 2017 at over $4m dollars. Some are well, well over that mark, but all are over $4m. If you add their current cap values together, they are at just over $100m for the group of 10. We could and probably add Dan Bailey and Cole Beasley in there, too. Both are at $4m per season, taking you to 12 bodies at roughly $109m dollars.

Some simple math and some cap estimates suggest the cap will sit at around $167m for 2017 with the possibility it might get to $170m. Let's figure that liberally, we get them to where - without a Romo move - they have about 60 million for 41 players. That allows, on average, an expenditure of around $1.4m per player to fill the remaining 77% of your roster.

The Cowboys are actually not an abnormal situation when it comes to this. I think you could grab any team and find out that 2/3rds of their money is given to about a dozen top players (give or take a bit). Then, the final 3rd of your money must employ between 75-80% of your manpower. It is the rich and the poor of the NFL system. Poor still pays really well, but the idea that there is no middle class is pretty clear. If each of the 53 players were paid the same on a $168m cap, they would all earn over $3.1m a year. But, that isn't how this works. The top 12 players average $9m a year and the bottom 41 hit at $1.4m per year.

This is where the conveyor belt visual comes in.

The conveyor belt is 4 years because this is the exact length of the typical NFL rookie contract. 1st rounders get a 5th year on their rookie contracts, but they don't really matter in this sense because they make a ton of money as rookies. If you take someone at #4, like the Cowboys did with Ezekiel Elliott, he will already be amongst the highest earners on the team and at his position in the entire league in many cases. In the case of Elliott, he was instantly the highest paid RB at his spot in terms of guaranteed money on his contract. He was also one of the high-earning dozen as he placed 9th in total value on the Cowboys the moment he stepped into the league.

4 years, which including the 2017 draft takes us back only to the 2014 draft. 2014, 2015, 2016, and now 2017 would be the four years the Cowboys currently have at their disposal to fill out their roster with young, cheap labor.

The reason we did not include 2013 is because all of the draftees they took in 2013 (and that includes undrafted free agents as well, but they often have a 5 year window with Ron Leary just expiring from 2012) had their deals expire when Mason Crosby hit the field goal to end the playoff run for the team. Members of that draft class are now either on extensions - Travis Frederick, Terrance Williams, and Jeff Heath - or they are gone to other teams on fresh contracts like JJ Wilcox and we assume at some point soon Gavin Escobar.

If you keep them, they become big earners in many cases. And if you let them leave, it becomes a priority to fill their spot. That was only four years ago, but that is how this thing works.

And, no sooner do you pick your shiny and new 2017 starlets, then you have to start worry about the 2014 draft class and their contracts. You have an extra year with Zack Martin, but everyone else - which is only DeMarcus Lawrence and Anthony Hitchens - are headed into their "walk" years this season. Yes, that is right, you already have to pay DeMarcus Lawrence to keep him away from free agency OR you have to ponder replacing him. Already!

That means, Romo included, there are presently only 16 players who joined this team before 2014. That is a staggering reality that many fans are not necessarily aware of. Imagine, the Broncos visit in here in 2013 with that amazing 51-48 shootout happened doesn't seem that long ago, right? Well, nearly 40 players on your 2017 roster were not in Dallas when that went down.

So, your 2014 guys are on their "pay or pass" year and the 2015 group - yes, the group that features Randy Gregory, for pete's sake (provided there are no NFL exemptions on his service time), as well as Chaz Green and Damien Wilson and Geoff Swaim are all going to be next in just 12 months.

It happens so fast in this league. It explains how you don't open a window for 5 years, really. That is what we still say in the media, and if you have a special QB you certainly operate from a massive advantage, but the future is now in this league. Your roster adds 15-20 new names every single season and loses just as many. Nobody brings everyone back - even though the media talks like that - and that is simply how the league's CBA is set up.

The conveyor belt keeps turning. You have to try to keep up.
 

VA Cowboy

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the Cowboys core players with regards to contracts are the following - Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Tyrone Crawford, Tyron Smith, Sean Lee, Ezekiel Elliott, Orlando Scandrick, Travis Frederick, and Cedric Thornton.
Crawford, Scandrick and Thornton....3 of our 4 highest paid defensive players. Explains a lot.
 

Simpleton

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Crawford, Scandrick and Thornton....3 of our 4 highest paid defensive players. Explains a lot.
Crawford is the real problem, he's being paid like he's elite and he's only giving us average to above average production.

Scandrick and Thornton are only making about 4-5 a year, which seems like a bargain considering some of the deals given out in free agency.
 

VA Cowboy

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Crawford is the real problem, he's being paid like he's elite and he's only giving us average to above average production.

Scandrick and Thornton are only making about 4-5 a year, which seems like a bargain considering some of the deals given out in free agency.
Yeah we way overpaid and gambled on Crawford based on one year of production. Scandricks situation would be better if he could just stay healthy. Thornton's contract isn't terrible but he was disappointing last year.
 

Smitty

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The league needs to overhaul their FA system. No big names get to FA anyway. Instead, all the middle tier glue guys get shuffled around constantly. No wonder the on field product is such shit.
 
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