Sturm's Draft Series

Cotton

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[h=1]Bob Sturm's draft profile series: Baylor DE Shawn Oakman seems to be a draft project[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

Shawn Oakman, Edge, Baylor - 6'8, 270 - RS Senior - #2

Often when judging draft prospects, it is best to know almost nothing about the player going in to the project. You want to trust your eyes and avoid all of the noise and opinions about a player. This, of course, is impossible when the player has been a bit of a lightning rod in the area - partly because he has been involved in some high profile moments that have absolutely colored people's perception of him before the tape is ever viewed.

That will be the case with Shawn Oakman. Whether it was the incident that had him dismissed from Penn State, the internet memes showing his insane build, the moments of poor judgment on the field, or even the pull-up exhibition (here) that has been shown for many, everyone has a Shawn Oakman opinion. Then, Sports Illustrated decided to place him as the top pick in the 2016 draft when they released their first mock draft last May, and with that he became "over-rated", a descriptor that has followed him for the balance of the last 12 months.

He also has quite a personal story of a tough upbringing and the hurdles he has overcome in life that cause many to root for his ultimate success. He is an incredible physical specimen - even amongst NFL prospects - and appears to be the model for all future uniform unveilings with a body chiseled out of granite. But, of course, there are many male models in the world who are not exceptional football players. The question that follows Oakman everywhere is the following: Is he the top notch prospect that people want him to be or is he just another project that will end up being a Day 3 pick that we might never hear from again?





What I liked: When you watch 200-300 snaps of Oakman, you will absolutely find plays that explain someone placing him high in Round 1. He is a large man who contains great traits including very long arms and a wing-span that reaches 84" across. This allows him to work his way through traffic and affect plays in many ways. He does have a motor that at times runs very high and chases plays to make them after they break down. When he sees a crease he often penetrates and rings up many tackles for loss. The idea he has not been a productive college player is pure fiction. In 25 games in the last 2 seasons he has racked up 15.5 sacks, 34 tackles for loss, and 5 forced fumbles. That may not quite match some of the other candidates high in the draft, but it seems to shatter the idea that he doesn't make plays and just looks great in a uniform. The questions become "how is he making plays" and "who is he making plays against" which is another portion of an evaluation. He made most plays with quickness off the snap (rather than beating guys with moves) and he made much of his production against less-than-heavyweight competition.





What I did not like: There was a very high amount of things that I would put in this category. Unfortunately, his 2014 was enormously better than 2015. I try to use recent footage to study, but on this player, I actually wanted to look at both years to see the distinct difference. Why was his motor and production much worse in 2015 after he decided to skip the draft and stay another year? One theory is that he was hurt (knee seems to be what most are saying) and another is he decided at some point to get into the "stay healthy for the draft" mode. Maybe it was both. But, for whatever reasons - possibly after he was blindsided in the Texas Tech game (shown above - likely as a moment to get even after his cheap-shot the year before on their QB) he looked like he was playing at half-speed and turned into a very pedestrian player and often a bystander. He played with no speed and very little urgency for a large part of 2015 which was certainly confusing to all who know what he is capable of.

On top of this, he has poor overall technique combined with a build that places almost all of his bulk in his upper body. He evidently has no vast array of pass rush moves. He has no anchor against the run and therefore - regardless of what game you watch - he gets moved out of the way at the point of attack like you might expect a much smaller man to be pushed. He was pancaked numerous times where he cannot keep his feet in a tight battle with a tackle. He has leverage issues that suggest he is too upright, but even in a proper stance, he just doesn't have the lower body to compete unless he is using quickness to penetrate. He can't stand his ground. More than anything, I fear Oakman has no position. He has some traits of a 3-4 DE, and some traits of a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 designated pass rusher, but not enough of either to feel confident on Sundays. Whoever takes him might need to be ready for a project that may or may not have time given that he will be 24 years old on draft day.





Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: I realize after that last section that many will be turned off by his future. This is an important time to remind people that it only takes one team to see something and that he will test very well at the Combine. Some teams target traits and are comfortable looking for value on Day 2 and 3 where they can find diamonds in the rough. If he can find his right home and if he turns the switch back on, he can fix a lot of this and quiet his doubters (an ever-growing group). I don't see the Cowboys on this list because their defensive end issue is already due to not having players to stand against the run.

As for his future in the NFL, I am going to hope he has another gear that more properly represents 2014. 2015 is over now and whatever poor tape he put out there, it won't matter when he is on his new NFL team. From there, he can control his future and work hard to develop into something special. I don't see him in Round 1 anymore, but at some point, the good tape and measureables will get him picked and a chance to change his narrative completely.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
 

boozeman

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Oakman is better as a meme than he is as a player.
 

Chocolate Lab

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Oakman is pretty much the poster child for "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane."
 

VA Cowboy

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Oakman is the epitome of the underwear olympics. The type of guy Paul Zimmerman was talking about 30 years ago who looks great at the combine. Funny how this guys was projected by some in the top 10 last year if he came out. Now late 2nd to 3rd or lower is about right for him.
 

dallen

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24 year old project? Jerry is intrigued
 

Cowboysrock55

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24 year old project? Jerry is intrigued
Here is the deal with Oakman. I want nothing to do with him in the first 3 rounds. I just know of better players I would rather have in those rounds. I doubt he makes it until the third day so there is probably no way I'd draft him if I were running the Cowboys. I'll let someone else think they can turn him into a super stud and then cuts him in a few years.
 

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[h=1]Bob Sturm's Draft Profile Series: California's Jared Goff Has the Highest Ceiling of the QB Group[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

Jared Goff, QB, California - 6'4, 215 - Junior - #16

There is plenty of debate this year about the quality of the Quarterbacks relative to other drafts and other prospects. It is my feeling that the 2016 draft's young QBs as a group at the top (Goff, Paxton Lynch, and Carson Wentz) all represent very high level prospects that any team would be excited to get their hands on and try to mold into a legitimate franchise QB. That said, history tells us that at any level and in any sport, the best prospects or recruits are those with the highest likelihood of success at the next level - BUT, the failure rate is still plenty high and there is just no such thing as a sure thing.

That is why it is so tough to rank these three QBs against eachother. There are subtle differences and there are certainly advantages in each category for one player over the other, but for now, as I finish up the write-up on Jared Goff, I am struck with the feeling that I would be comfortable saying all 3 of these guys are sure-fire 1st round talents and from there we are merely splitting hairs on where inside that round they belong.

Goff is an exceptional talent who is the youngest of the three, the shortest of the three, and the lightest of the three. That said, it can easily be argued that he is also the most accomplished of the three, has played the highest level of competition of the three, and has the best mental understanding of the poisiton of the three. He arrived in 2013 as an 18-year old true freshman and started from Day 1 at California in an offense where he never threw less than 500 passes in a season and each year improved his statistics with a massive step forward in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and especially TDs/INT. He is productive and sharp as a tack.







What I liked: He obviously sees the game at a very high level. Some would suggest that in the "Bear Raid" offense, that it is one read and throw, but if you watch Cal play, it seems pretty clear that he is running the offense, making adjustments on the fly, seeing matchups in pre and post snap, and then attacking the defense's weakness. It is not real common to see someone see the field like he does as he generally scans to his 2nd or 3rd option and then fires a dart. He is looking to make a play and therefore will aggressively push the ball well down the field instead of taking the repeated horizontal throws that his offense allows. He has fine long accuracy at times dropping the ball right in the bucket on fades and putting the ball where only his guy can get it in the red zone. In fact, his interceptions in the red zone are nearly non-existent in his entire college career. He can move with his feet in the pocket as well as you can hope for a prospect as he keeps plays alive and stays in a fine throwing position, although he will often break contain and go get a 1st down with his feet and he is quite capable of being a threat there, as well. He played with a very poor offensive line and also had a receiving corps that would fight the drops, yet his competitiveness and determination never wavered. He is absolutely not afraid of taking a hit to make a play. He looks like a real gun-slinger who has no issues with self-belief or what is placed on his shoulders.







What I did not like: Of the three prospects, Goff might have the hardest time making the most difficult throws on a rope. In other words, his arm is strong enough, but I am not sure I would classify it as anything better than 3rd best in this discussion. He is also quite skinny and while he might get thicker, he will always make you nervous in terms of durability as he stands tall in a blitz to make a throw. When he is sacked, the ball does come loose from time to time. He occasionally will lose his accuracy, with some very odd and mysterious random throws, but then quickly seems to regain his form. He also has a sudden rush of the head where he thinks he can make throws that he really shouldn't make. As any gunslinger, there is a certain amount of bad you will live with to get all the good, but coaching will be key for Goff's development.





Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: If Jared Goff goes before the Cowboys pick, we should not be the least bit surprised. He has probably the highest ceiling of this group, mainly because he seems to have a veteran QB's knowledge of football and defenses and coverages and most importantly, where to go with the ball against those coverages. Everyone knows the safeties are better in the NFL, but at the major college level he was just embarrassing secondaries with routine and ease. He understands that the best way to beat blitzes is to burn them and to give your receivers a chance to make plays in single-coverage because as a QB, there is always a place to attack. Between his pocket poise and presence, his ability with his feet to extend plays, and his delivery of the deep ball on the button, he is the type of player that can very well be the best player in the draft. There are some concerns, but they are the types you are willing to place a bet on.







You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Exactly how I feel about Goff. If he is there at 4 we shouldn't even hesitate for a second. He is legit.
 

dallen

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Exactly how I feel about Goff. If he is there at 4 we shouldn't even hesitate for a second. He is legit.
Yup. I have been focusing on Wentz because I assume Goff is gone to Cleveland. If we end up with either one of them I will be very happy.
 

Smitty

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Good to know that I can safely focus on Wentz OR Goff as a target at 4.
 

Simpleton

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Yea, I don't know if Goff has the highest ceiling but I think he is probably the safest bet of the three, despite not having the pure physical ability of Wentz or Lynch. He is way more polished than both, he is very developed in terms of the mental side of the game, he has a strong enough arm and some functional mobility, even if his arm is not quite as strong as Wentz/Lynch, nor is he as mobile.

I'd be equally pleased with either of them at 4.
 

Jiggyfly

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Give me Goff or give me death.:towel

But really I don't see how Goff is not solidly at #1 in the QB rankings at this point, Wentz has a better set of physical tools but Goff just is a much better passer.

He throws with anticipation, he throws with touch, he manipulates the pocket better and his accuracy is off the charts.

Wentz is still in the stage of waiting for guys to get open while it looks like Goff throws guys open.

Add in the fact that he is the youngest and it's a no-brainer, it seems the only legitimate knock is his size and he does not have an injury history.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Give me Goff or give me death.:towel

But really I don't see how Goff is not solidly at #1 in the QB rankings at this point, Wentz has a better set of physical tools but Goff just is a much better passer.

He throws with anticipation, he throws with touch, he manipulates the pocket better and his accuracy is off the charts.

Wentz is still in the stage of waiting for guys to get open while it looks like Goff throws guys open.

Add in the fact that he is the youngest and it's a no-brainer, it seems the only legitimate knock is his size and he does not have an injury history.
His size isn't bad though. He is listed at 6'4", which means he is probably 6'3". At 215 lbs right now, I'm sure he will add another 10 to 15 lbs of muscle in the NFL and basically be the perfect size for a QB.
 

Simpleton

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I think there are a couple reasons the Browns may opt for Wentz:

1. He has a stronger arm and they play a bunch of their games in inclement weather (Cleveland obviously but also late season games in Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati).
2. Bigger/stronger physical frame, again in response to the physical defenses/style of play that exists in the division.
3. Newton is obviously the flavor of the month in the league right now, and the likely MVP, and Wentz compares to Newton better than anybody I can remember in the top 10 since Newton came out in terms of arm strength+mobility+size.
4. Jackson had success coaching Flacco, another 1st round FCS QB who shot up after the Senior Bowl. Some think Wentz compares favorably, just with much better mobility/athleticism.

I have no clue who they will pick between Goff and Wentz honestly but I wouldn't be surprised at all either way, and I'd be more than happy with either of them myself.
 

Jiggyfly

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His size isn't bad though. He is listed at 6'4", which means he is probably 6'3". At 215 lbs right now, I'm sure he will add another 10 to 15 lbs of muscle in the NFL and basically be the perfect size for a QB.
He does very skinny legs but if has not shown a propensity for injury I would not hold it against him, especially behind this line.
 

Simpleton

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Oh, and another big reason I think the Browns could go Wentz is his character/off field intangibles.

The guy is literally as squeaky clean as you can get off the field, 4.0 GPA, won all sorts of academic awards, revered, almost idolized by his teammates, desire to learn the game, hell, I think the guy was also some kind of Christian prayer leader or some such in college too.

After coming off of dealing with a shit head like Manziel, a guy like that looks damn good.

And this isn't to say that Goff isn't clean off the field, in fact I haven't read one single negative thing about the guy so maybe this becomes a moot point once all of the Combine interviews/team visits are over with.
 

VA Cowboy

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I do agree Goff is the safest pick. He's been solid at Cal while playing against top competition. Wentz and Lynch may have a higher ceiling but there is more risk with those two. Wentz started less than two years at FCS level and Lynch didn't have the toughest competition at Memphis and played in a QB friendly offense.
I do like Wentz but wouldn't be upset if Cleveland falls for him and we get Goff to drop to us at #4. Of course having us then turn around and select Ramsey or Jack would be a bit upsetting.
 

L.T. Fan

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I do agree Goff is the safest pick. He's been solid at Cal while playing against top competition. Wentz and Lynch may have a higher ceiling but there is more risk with those two. Wentz started less than two years at FCS level and Lynch didn't have the toughest competition at Memphis and played in a QB friendly offense.
I do like Wentz but wouldn't be upset if Cleveland falls for him and we get Goff to drop to us at #4. Of course having us then turn around and select Ramsey or Jack would be a bit upsetting.
I am partial to Goff also simply because at the current stage he is more polished. Wentz intrigues me with his arm strength and size. He seems to have a head for the game as well.
 

VA Cowboy

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I am partial to Goff also simply because at the current stage he is more polished. Wentz intrigues me with his arm strength and size. He seems to have a head for the game as well.
The part that plays in our favor is that we don't need one of them to step in a start immediately. Having one of them be able to sit and learn for a year or so would be very valuable. Just have to have Jerry pull the trigger.
 
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