Sturm's Draft Series

Simpleton

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So if Bosa went to Georgia this wouldn't be a big deal?

Who gives a shit what Bobby Carpenter did when we drafted him 10 years ago?

Busts come from every school all the time. Did JJ Watt have the quick twitch you want to see off the edge?

No he did not and he is on pace to be the best defensive player of all time.

If Bosa was 250 lbs that'd be one thing but this dude is damn near 280 and shows light feet, strong hands, refined pass rush moves and yes, explosiveness relative to his size. He may not run a 4.6 but I expect his athleticism will be evident with a 35 inch vertical, give or take an inch or two.
 

Angrymesscan

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I'd take Bosa in a heartbeat and never look back, he reminds me of Suggs, and like him he'll be just 20 when drafted.
 

Cowboysrock55

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So if Bosa went to Georgia this wouldn't be a big deal?

Who gives a shit what Bobby Carpenter did when we drafted him 10 years ago?

Busts come from every school all the time. Did JJ Watt have the quick twitch you want to see off the edge?

No he did not and he is on pace to be the best defensive player of all time.

If Bosa was 250 lbs that'd be one thing but this dude is damn near 280 and shows light feet, strong hands, refined pass rush moves and yes, explosiveness relative to his size. He may not run a 4.6 but I expect his athleticism will be evident with a 35 inch vertical, give or take an inch or two.
I wonder though if Bosa went to Northwestern if we would be talking about him as a late first instead of a high first. Ohio State players tend to get a little bit of a bump.

Don't get me wrong, I like Bosa. I think he is a very good strong side end prospect. I don't see a guy with JJ Watt freak power and size but then again no one really thought JJ Watt was going to be this good at the time of his draft either. But if you're expecting a Ware type burst off the RE spot from him I think you're sadly mistaken. He just isn't going to be burning LT's around the edge like that.

My opinion on Bosa and Tunsil is that they are good and safe picks but not anything special. I'm not sure their are any special guys at the top of this draft. It's why I'm all in on a QB or trading down.
 

Simpleton

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I wonder though if Bosa went to Northwestern if we would be talking about him as a late first instead of a high first. Ohio State players tend to get a little bit of a bump.

Don't get me wrong, I like Bosa. I think he is a very good strong side end prospect. I don't see a guy with JJ Watt freak power and size but then again no one really thought JJ Watt was going to be this good at the time of his draft either. But if you're expecting a Ware type burst off the RE spot from him I think you're sadly mistaken. He just isn't going to be burning LT's around the edge like that.

My opinion on Bosa and Tunsil is that they are good and safe picks but not anything special. I'm not sure their are any special guys at the top of this draft. It's why I'm all in on a QB or trading down.
Yea, I mean I don't think he is a pure edge rusher from the right side, he lacks that elite burst and quick twitch off the edge. Although to be honest Watt doesn't even have that, he wins with his ridiculous strength, length, hands and leverage, and I think Bosa has some of that to him, just in a slightly smaller frame.

He's a DE who will mainly play on the left side and give you elite run defense and probably about 8-12 sacks a year. I'm curious to see how he tests at the combine because I do think he has good athleticism and explosion for his size.

I know what you're saying about wondering whether or not he's special but these are the prospects we have to choose from. QB's aside, I think Bosa provides the best combination of having a high floor but still considerable upside at a high impact position for us.

I'm obviously all in on a QB though.
 

Cotton

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[h=1]Bob Sturm's Draft Profile Series: Oregon's DeForest Buckner Wouldn't Seem To Fit In Dallas[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon - 6'7, 300 - Senior - #44

You cannot help but see the headlines that periodically link some draft expert's latest mock draft and what he thinks the Dallas Cowboys are going to do. Last week it was Mel Kiper and this week it was Gil Brandtwho both think Dallas would be in on the Pac 12's Defensive Player of the Year for 2015.

Buckner is a very large man who stands above the game at 6'7 and who has played 4 seasons for the Ducks at a very high and productive level. This year, he was in on 27.5 explosive plays (sacks + tackles for loss) and also factored in on 83 tackles which is very nice. He also plays with an intensity and energy that certainly appears to be infectious and demonstrates his standing on his team of the lead dog.

The questions are always going to be the following when ranking draft prospects this far up the board. Is he good or great at the NFL level and how does he fit in with the Dallas Cowboys approach to defense? Answer both of those questions properly, and then you will quickly have the answer about the potential selection at #4 overall.

I try to resolve those questions with my own method of video observation. I am often asked about how much to watch and I have arrived at 200 consecutive snaps. I don't want the video cherry-picked or sorted by great results (although I try to pick tough opponents). I just want to see the player as his team sees him, because frankly, any player this good will have an exciting youtube highlight film. But that is often 12 plays out of 800. We want the real picture of the player.







What I liked: I think Buckner is a real force inside and clearly has the size to become a real problem. He has a bull rush that is quite effective and often walks his man right back into the pocket. The best part about his skill set seems how well he 2-gaps his man with a good arm extension on any running plays in front of him. If he can hold off his blocker with his arm length, then he can steer him and play both gaps to ultimately get in on the play. This leaves the running back with no real read and the play is shut down. Also, Buckner is quite intelligent in his reading of plays because you can see that he is reacting to player movement that keys him to a screen or a bootleg faster than his teammates. He is quite aware and has good instincts on what the opponent is trying. When he gets inside against a guard is where he gets his sacks. He is not really going to overwhelm very many tackles with much beyond a bull-rush, but if he gets inside, then he can use his hands and quick his way past an isolated guard to get to the QB. At his best, you can definitely see a similar body and style of Calais Campbell from Arizona, who anyone who knows the game will vouch that this would be a very nice goal.






What I did not like: The problem with that is that Campbell is a 5-technique DE in a 3-4 scheme. If Buckner goes to one of the 10 or 11 teams that still runs the 3-4, I am sure he will be a fine player for a long time. Just about all of his characteristics - 2 gapping, getting inside on guards for pass rush, and body style - speak to a 3-4 fit. But, in the 4-3, there are really issues here because he really isn't dangerous enough as a pass rusher on the edge and he plays too high to consistently be a force inside on normal downs (easy to knock him off the point of attack if you are not getting low - see the clip below). He has an average motor and aside from his size he has average athleticism. There is not that burst of quickness you would want to close out plays at the moment where the ball is going past him in the trenches (also see the clip below). In his head to head matchup with fellow 1st round prospect, Michigan State's tackle Jack Conklin, he was too quiet and not impactful for most of the evening. He is a "stand your ground" guy which works as a 5-technique. He also is primarily a straight line pass rusher on the edge. There is a lot of ability in this player, but I really think it needs to be a good fit for his skill set.






Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: This player is going to be a 1st rounder, but he is definitely one of those players that the "draft pundit consensus" seems to rate him higher than I do. I think he has to be in a 3-4 to reach his ceiling and therefore he would not be the fit in Dallas for me that evidently many experts believe. I just am not seeing it.

The key to the draft is not whether a $60,000 truck is a fine vehicle, it is how much you are willing to pay for it. If you pay $100,000 for that truck, you are never going to feel great about your purchase even though it is a nice truck. If you pay $30,000 for that truck (like Arizona did for Calais Campbell at pick #50) you cannot stop celebrating for the life of your purchase. That is the analogy I would use for Buckner. He is a very nice prospect, but it has to be at the right price and in the right scheme. The idea of the Cowboys, a 4-3 team, taking him at #4 seems very unlikely to me.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.


 

Cowboysrock55

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Yea, I mean I don't think he is a pure edge rusher from the right side, he lacks that elite burst and quick twitch off the edge. Although to be honest Watt doesn't even have that, he wins with his ridiculous strength, length, hands and leverage, and I think Bosa has some of that to him, just in a slightly smaller frame.

He's a DE who will mainly play on the left side and give you elite run defense and probably about 8-12 sacks a year. I'm curious to see how he tests at the combine because I do think he has good athleticism and explosion for his size.

I know what you're saying about wondering whether or not he's special but these are the prospects we have to choose from. QB's aside, I think Bosa provides the best combination of having a high floor but still considerable upside at a high impact position for us.

I'm obviously all in on a QB though.
All of this is exactly why I am perfectly fine with Bosa but would prefer a trade down if we aren't taking a QB.
 

Cowboysrock55

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As far as Buckner is concerned I tend to agree. He seems like a flawless fit as a 3-4 DE who could be dominant. I'm just not sure about his fit in our 4-3. I guess he could probably play the 3 technique spot pretty damn well. I just don't think he bring enough speed pass rush ability to play End in this defense on more then just 3rd and short type plays.

In our defense I see him more as a DT like a Richard Seymour.
 

GForce78NJ

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I think Buckner goes to the 49ers at 7. The guy loves him some Oregon and it would be interesting to see him combined with former teammate Arik Armstead. I know they need everything but don't see him passing on a player he's loved in the past.
 

Cotton

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[h=1]Sturm's Draft Profile: Cowboys Will Eye Penn State's Austin Johnson This Week in Mobile[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

Austin Johnson, DT, Penn State - 6'4, 325 - RS Junior - #99

It is important to place values on different players at different positions because lost in all of this talk every year about "Best Player Available", we lose sight of the simple idea that all positions are not created equal. If you want the best player available, you better have considered the ability to understand these differences in values from one spot to the next.

That means that at the top of the chart of value is a starting QB, along with a starting left tackle, a dominant pass rusher, and a shut down corner. There are numerous positions on the field that are not "full time" positions, where they are part of a rotation - Running backs, defensive line, and most linebackers. There are positions where the life span is considered much shorter and there are positions where the supply is high to fulfill the demand. Others, obviously, there is no supply for the demand. So yes, get the "best player available", but if all of those other variables are not properly assigned, you might regret not asking the right questions.

This leads us to the place we will spend most of the week - looking at the defensive linemen who are at the Senior Bowl. Today, let's dive in on a player I have been told is definitely on the Cowboys' radar, Penn State's defensive tackle, Austin Johnson.

Johnson is part of a Penn State defensive line that was very strong this year and will put a few different prospects into the top of the draft and Johnson was the inside force of this crew.





What I liked: For a man of his size (6'4, 325), Johnson moves very well both in moving forward and from sideline to sideline. He really is a player that might balance what everyone seeks in an inside force as a 1-technique (he will switch to the 3-tech at times). Can he stand his ground against a double-team block, while possessing mobility that allows him to make plays - especially behind the line of scrimmage? With Johnson, you can definitely see how his ceiling would be that type of inside player who cannot be slowed down. He has a real strong bull rush, but clearly what sets him apart from most 1-techniques are his movement skills. And there is no question that running through the whistle is something he feels quite strongly about. He will draw double teams and that will limit his ability to make impact plays, but he certainly will free up his mates to do just that, which is what his position is all about (and frankly why the Cowboys don't always value it). He has "Dancing Bear" traits, which makes him appealing at the right price. He also is impressive inside with his hand skills to move past a man.





What I did not like: His experience level at Penn State is solid, but his time as an "impact" player is rather short. He had 21.5 explosive plays (sacks + tackles for loss) in 2015, but before that, he had very few - if any. He will get locked up in a block from time to time and that is when he is not making enough difference to value highly. He also appeared to get banged up a bit which limited his mobility. When he is not on the move, he ceases to be special. He gets held a lot and will need to continue to work on his techniques to free himself because those calls inside don't occur very often. We should consider him a capable pass rusher, but one who is generally getting his production off stunts rather than one who just destroys his blocker on the way in.



Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: We certainly know the Cowboys are careful on 1-techniques. We also know that they have almost no impact plays behind the line of scrimmage from their 1-technique since they moved to the 4-3 defense and if they hope to improve their defense, they need to reconsider their stance if they can find the right player at the right price.

Now, they have Johnson on their "North" squad this week in Mobile, which certainly will not mean as much as we will want it to mean, but they will have a close-up view on him to see if it is time to invest in their defensive front further after spending important picks on DeMarcus Lawrence, Tyrone Crawford, and Randy Gregory. Adding Johnson in the 2nd round might be a very fine idea to bring this line together. This is a very deep defensive line draft (again - this is becoming a bit of an annual truth) so there should be some fine ideas in Rounds 2-4. You don't want to over-value the 1-technique who is always going to face a center-guard double team, but it might be time the Cowboys stop under-valuing the spot. The 21-year old from Penn State seems to be a target going into the Senior Bowl.



You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
 

Cowboysrock55

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What I find funny about the 1 technique talk is that there is an assumption that your 1 technique is automatically double teamed. Go watch our wonderful NT. You will be amazed how often he is single blocked. Additionally he never moves his guy backwards at all.
 

Simpleton

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I'd prefer Clark, Rankins or of course Billings but if Johnson is the pick I wouldn't be disappointed.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I'd prefer Clark, Rankins or of course Billings but if Johnson is the pick I wouldn't be disappointed.
A'Shawn Robinson
Austin Johnson
Kenny Clark
Andrew Billings
Sheldon Rankins

I would take any of these DT's at the top of the second in a heartbeat. The reason I'm confident that one of them will last until then is because there are other DT's likely to go in the first as well such as Jarran Reed and Robert Nkemdiche who I have no interest in. The draft is just stocked with talent at this position. Sheldon Day is a guy who intrigues me more a little later but I think he is more of a pure 3 technique. Although I think he could thrive here in that role.
 

VA Cowboy

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What I find funny about the 1 technique talk is that there is an assumption that your 1 technique is automatically double teamed. Go watch our wonderful NT. You will be amazed how often he is single blocked. Additionally he never moves his guy backwards at all.
In the 4-3 we don't have a NT, just two DT's. What's interesting is how we never valued NT even when we played a 3-4. Now we don't seem to value DT. Now days we'd probably bypass Randy White if he was staring us in the face since it's such a low priority for Garrett/Marinelli.
 

Cowboysrock55

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In the 4-3 we don't have a NT, just two DT's. What's interesting is how we never valued NT even when we played a 3-4. Now we don't seem to value DT. Now days we'd probably bypass Randy White if he was staring us in the face since it's such a low priority for Garrett/Marinelli.
Well I think we value a 3 technique. We were all in love with Aaron Donald in that draft. I have no doubt Dallas would have taken him. We just don't seem to value the 1 technique spot at all. Which is sort of a NT type spot in this defense. Although not really. The idea is that the 1 technique will get double by the center and guard the majority of the time. The 3 technique will be getting single blocked by the other guard (Sort of why this is so important for creating pressure) and then your DE's will each be taking up the blocking duties of an OT. The problem is teams don't really need to bother doubling Hayden. So instead they can shift their line to sort of give help to other guys. Additionally if you throw a RB or TE in the mix you're making it much easier to pass block.
 

Cotton

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[h=1]Bob Sturm's draft profile series: If Cowboys like redemption stories, here's Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky[/h]
By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, Click Here.

Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky - 6'3, 261 - RS Junior - #9

Hardcore followers of college football do not need the following recap of Spence, but for the benefit of the rest of the audience, it goes like this: Noah was the first 5-star recruit that Urban Meyer landed when he went to Ohio State and almost instantly, Spence became a standout for the Buckeyes and was very impressive with grades in the classroom as well. His 2013 has 21.5 explosive plays in 13 games before he was suspended for the Orange Bowl because he failed a drug test. He then was suspended again by the Buckeyes as he failed another drug test the following season before being permanently banned by the Big 10 for the same infractions. He then transferred to finish up at Eastern Kentucky (as he was not eligible for the draft) and put up a massive season there with 34 explosives in just 11 games - with several big plays against Power 5 opponents. He is as talented a player as you might see in this entire draft, but he obviously is going to be at the top of the "red flag" discussions in this draft.

I would advise anyone interested in his backstory to read this fantastic feature from Bruce Feldman to paint a much better picture than the above paragraph if you are so inclined.

Spence is an edge rusher which is one of the most sought after positions in football. Just a few days from when Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware brought the mighty Patriots to their knees, most football enthusiasts do not need an explanation on how destructive speed rushers can truly be on the biggest stage. Spence is touted as possibly the best of the bunch and to examine further I used both his Ohio State tape from 2013 and several games from his quick stop at Eastern Kentucky.





What I liked: Everything I heard about his ability is true. He is as "twitched up" as an edge rusher can be with an explosive get-off, a fantastic bend around the corner where he dips and gets around the corner with a minimum of wasted motion or distance, and then closes on a QB from either side with a violence upon his arrival. He is devastating. When they played against Kentucky this fall, it was somewhat amusing to see how many players the Wildcats would dedicate to make sure he got blocked. Often, the number for that job was three. He was unstoppable in many passing down situations, but is big and strong enough - at over 260 with room to grow - that nobody was trying to take advantage of him with the running game. He also showed some very nice relentless battle when a play did not include him and chased several plays down from behind.





What I did not like: His rap-sheet is disconcerting for a few reasons. The biggest issue for me is that he was given a mulligan by Ohio State and still did not make sure he tested clean after being warned harshly. This, for someone with everything to lose, is a very bothersome warning sign for how serious someone is about football. The investments are all about calculating how badly someone wants to be great and his decisions as a 19-year old indicated that he wasn't too serious about making himself the best he could be. But, young people sometimes make poor decisions and learn from it. We don't know. On the field, he does slow down some as the game goes on in 2015, and while he looks sculpted from stone, one wonders how well his cardio was as the conditioning was not impressive as some of these games went along. That said, it would be placed as a minor concern which likely is a non-issue on a NFL roster. I wonder about his lateral quickness and will be interested in how he tests in February to confirm that he has the right hips to get the DeMarcus Ware comps that his tape suggests are possible. But, on the field, he checks all the boxes for a top prospect.





Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: There will come a time where you take the best player available and Spence will quickly be that guy, probably by about the 15th pick in the draft. Then, it will come down to which teams will take on his concerns to reap the benefits of a guy who certainly appears to be a prototypical edge rusher on Sundays.

The most likely scenario is that one of the rich teams will get richer and he will end up as one of the ensemble rushers that the power teams put together like in Seattle or Carolina and be an instant threat off the edge in the back half of the 1st round. But, if Spence had no red flags and we simply were watching him race Joey Bosa to the QB at Ohio State these last several seasons, there is a good chance he would be strongly in the mix for a top 5 pick - just like Bosa. That said, he is one interesting redemption story that will continue to play out as draft day approaches. There is no question he could be one of the best players in the 2016 Draft. Or, one of the cautionary tales.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com
 

Simpleton

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It's pretty clear that Savage tries to stack the rosters in a way that certain guys could rise based on which staff is coaching certain players. For example, he is already crowing about Wentz possibly rising into the top 10 as a feather in the cap of the Senior Bowl, do you think it's a coincidence that Wentz is being coached by the team that has a clear need for a future franchise QB?

Nothing wrong with it, but the fact remains.

Because of that I think he is trying to do the same with Spence. He is a perfect fit as the explosive "LEO" in the Seahawks style defense that the Jaguars run, and of course they have a big need there. I'm guessing pairing Spence up with the Jaguars staff is an attempt to create the narrative that a guy who was a borderline 1st/2nd rose all the way into the top 10 with a strong Senior Bowl showing. He certainly has the natural talent to be a top 10-15 pick, and if the Jags like what they see this week I wouldn't be shocked at all if they took him at 5.
 

Jiggyfly

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Spence is a interesting prospect, like Simp said I could easily see him moving into the top 10.

But I really don't know how you get addicted to ecstasy, it's a fun drug but hardly addictive IMO.
 
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